Trump winning re-election will be based as much upon his eventual Democratic opponent as it would on anything else.
The fact of the matter is with Trump winning the election in 2016 (even though he lost the popular vote), many never saw that coming so there is no reason why he might not repeat the feat BUT there is much more consensus of a movement against Trump and his policies now than ever before along with the #metoo movement. Let us not forget there are several women who have made various claims against the sitting President of the USA.
Democrats have an opportunity to easily win the election if they can capitalise on the failures of Trump (PR disasters, allegations of sexual misconduct, collusion with foreign entities for personal/political gain, threatening foreign countries for personal/politcal gain, etc) and if they can present even a semi-charismatic individual as their nomination for the Presidential candidacy.
Trump will always have the majority of the evangelical right and various organisation that are to the right of the political spectrum but will it be enough to get him over the line this time - it will be tight.
Topic: [BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon - page 48. (Read 11316 times)
I owe eddie a signed message confirming BTC.01 on Trump not getting reelected with same terms as suchmoons bet.
Just saying.
Just saying.
Ok don't want this on my todo list any longer. I just stole all the terms from suchmoon/eddie bet in OP and changed the amount. I'm fine with forgetting the arbitrator clause as long as this bet is settled the same as your bet with suchmoon.
Let me know if everything looks good and I'll sign it with 1JqxhKj4CdRqFb7mGdXVMYTMy1MQ5qShsn
I could've sworn I had it in the staked address thread, but can only find this post at the moment: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.12951413
Code:
TwitchySeals's address: 1JqxhKj4CdRqFb7mGdXVMYTMy1MQ5qShsn
eddie13's address: 1vvSrTFiQY7akwbsv3iYPPe9mR3DsEbff
TwitchySeal agrees to pay 0.01 BTC to eddie13 if Donald J Trump wins the 2020 US presidential election, and eddie13 agrees to pay 0.01 BTC to TwitchySeal if Donald J Trump does not win the 2020 US presidential election.
The outcome of this bet will be the same as the outcome of the [url=https://archive.is/wip/pTbBg]bet between suchmoon and eddie13[/url].
Decision logic is
Election result is considered decided by the Electoral College meeting. If the Electoral College elects Donald J Trump the president of the US following the 2020 US presidential election eddie13 wins the bet, in any other case TwitchySeal wins the bet except for the draw conditions listed below.
Conditions for a draw (neither side pays the other side):
If there is no presidential election in 2020.
If Donald J Trump is not on the ballot in at least 26 states.
If the Electoral College doesn't meet by midnight January 31, 2021.
Additional terms:
EC decision is final regardless of popular vote, pledged electors, unfaithful electors etc.
No presidential election in 2020 (martial law, martians invading, etc) means a draw.
Donald J Trump not running for any reason (primaried out, dead, impeached, etc) means a draw even if he wins via write-in.
Any other candidate getting elected (democrat, republican, third party, etc) means Twitchyseal wins.
If Donald J Trump is elected but doesn't get sworn in (dies, goes to prison, moves to Slovenia, etc) eddie13 wins.
Signed 2020-01-04
eddie13's address: 1vvSrTFiQY7akwbsv3iYPPe9mR3DsEbff
TwitchySeal agrees to pay 0.01 BTC to eddie13 if Donald J Trump wins the 2020 US presidential election, and eddie13 agrees to pay 0.01 BTC to TwitchySeal if Donald J Trump does not win the 2020 US presidential election.
The outcome of this bet will be the same as the outcome of the [url=https://archive.is/wip/pTbBg]bet between suchmoon and eddie13[/url].
Decision logic is
Election result is considered decided by the Electoral College meeting. If the Electoral College elects Donald J Trump the president of the US following the 2020 US presidential election eddie13 wins the bet, in any other case TwitchySeal wins the bet except for the draw conditions listed below.
Conditions for a draw (neither side pays the other side):
If there is no presidential election in 2020.
If Donald J Trump is not on the ballot in at least 26 states.
If the Electoral College doesn't meet by midnight January 31, 2021.
Additional terms:
EC decision is final regardless of popular vote, pledged electors, unfaithful electors etc.
No presidential election in 2020 (martial law, martians invading, etc) means a draw.
Donald J Trump not running for any reason (primaried out, dead, impeached, etc) means a draw even if he wins via write-in.
Any other candidate getting elected (democrat, republican, third party, etc) means Twitchyseal wins.
If Donald J Trump is elected but doesn't get sworn in (dies, goes to prison, moves to Slovenia, etc) eddie13 wins.
Signed 2020-01-04
Neither of these fuckers give an inch of slack, they deserve none. Take every Satoshi they promise and laugh heartily at them.
Classy as ever. Reminder:
Local rules: this particular bet, as well as betting on 2020 presidential election in general, and discussing the election itself is on topic. Everything else, including the usual P&S bullshit (you know who you are) is not.
I am addressing the bet, which is very much on topic. As far as the rest, cry me a river.
I owe eddie a signed message confirming BTC.01 on Trump not getting reelected with same terms as suchmoons bet.
Just saying.
Just saying.
I'll give you a redo on that if you want @nutildah to make it clear 1:1..
What I said about the whole loan thing was just kidding Twitchy trying to get him to sign a real staked address..
I'm starting to think that the concept of signing agreements is not as well spread as I had thought, or something..
What I said about the whole loan thing was just kidding Twitchy trying to get him to sign a real staked address..
I'm starting to think that the concept of signing agreements is not as well spread as I had thought, or something..
Oh, well in that case let's just do 0.01 @ 1:1. I can definitely round that up in a year, regardless of what the price is.
Neither of these fuckers give an inch of slack, they deserve none. Take every Satoshi they promise and laugh heartily at them.
Classy as ever. Reminder:
Local rules: this particular bet, as well as betting on 2020 presidential election in general, and discussing the election itself is on topic. Everything else, including the usual P&S bullshit (you know who you are) is not.
Neither of these fuckers give an inch of slack, they deserve none. Take every Satoshi they promise and laugh heartily at them.
But didn't you read my profile? I'm a "friendly neighbourhood guy"..
You don't need to pay anything that has to do with that, lol..
I took it to mean more like +150 but I will only ask for +100 or .01 no matter.. I'm not trying to rob anyone..
I'll give you a redo on that if you want @nutildah to make it clear 1:1..
What I said about the whole loan thing was just kidding Twitchy trying to get him to sign a real staked address..
I'm starting to think that the concept of signing agreements is not as well spread as I had thought, or something..
I took it to mean more like +150 but I will only ask for +100 or .01 no matter.. I'm not trying to rob anyone..
I'll give you a redo on that if you want @nutildah to make it clear 1:1..
What I said about the whole loan thing was just kidding Twitchy trying to get him to sign a real staked address..
I'm starting to think that the concept of signing agreements is not as well spread as I had thought, or something..
Neither of these fuckers give an inch of slack, they deserve none. Take every Satoshi they promise and laugh heartily at them.
Accepted anyway but I can't find 19fZGJAsampH3UEMp5WroX3Y6eUU1tdA7B staked anywhere either..
Tisk tisk..
My mistake for not checking it first, my risk..
Tisk tisk..
My mistake for not checking it first, my risk..
If nutildah defaults I'll pay his part too, after coloring him red up the wazoo of course.
Just to make it clear, if you win you get 0.025 BTC and if he wins he gets 0.01 BTC? So that's like +250 or am I missing something here?
You don't need to pay anything that has to do with that, lol..
I took it to mean more like +150 but I will only ask for +100 or .01 no matter.. I'm not trying to rob anyone..
I'll give you a redo on that if you want @nutildah to make it clear 1:1..
What I said about the whole loan thing was just kidding Twitchy trying to get him to sign a real staked address..
I'm starting to think that the concept of signing agreements is not as well spread as I had thought, or something..
Accepted anyway but I can't find 19fZGJAsampH3UEMp5WroX3Y6eUU1tdA7B staked anywhere either..
Tisk tisk..
My mistake for not checking it first, my risk..
Tisk tisk..
My mistake for not checking it first, my risk..
If nutildah defaults I'll pay his part too, after coloring him red up the wazoo of course.
Just to make it clear, if you win you get 0.025 BTC and if he wins he gets 0.01 BTC? So that's like +250 or am I missing something here?
I'm not a hodler -- I actually .... so I can't do BTC.
Well what is one signature payment in BTC? I can wait a week after the close..
But what if it goes to $300k+? You would have to hodl it now.. ...
I could hodl some satoshis for you if you want..
OK, you have my word that I would honor this type of deal:
(I'm loaning you .01 so you can pay me .02)
With the same conditions as suchmoon. If Trump wins and I don't honor my repayment of 0.02 BTC everybody has permission to run my ass red. But I will repay because that's what I do.
Hell, let's up the stakes for me: I will pay you 0.025 if Trump wins the election (on suchmoon-based terms), seeing as how you are basically giving me a loan of 0.01 BTC.
Address:
19fZGJAsampH3UEMp5WroX3Y6eUU1tdA7B
Message:
This is nutildah, signing an old-ass Counterparty address on 12/17 (12/16 for most of you still).
Signature:
H3B8p56eKe2cysSKIb+Kr016oKRIXhF03F1K2eUORe83ZzjR+96CnKXF5RXaKbZf0tpC+cqfr0hmDvtNQBxW6lQ=
First transaction is from 9.29.14
Let me know what you think. I can sign a more specific message if you agree.
1vvSrTFiQY7akwbsv3iYPPe9mR3DsEbff
Code:
eddie13 on 12/16/19 accepting bet with nutildah as quoted
Quote:
With the same conditions as suchmoon. If Trump wins and I don't honor my repayment of 0.02 BTC everybody has permission to run my ass red. But I will repay because that's what I do.
Hell, let's up the stakes for me: I will pay you [b]0.025[/b] if Trump wins the election (on suchmoon-based terms), seeing as how you are basically giving me a loan of 0.01 BTC.
Address:
19fZGJAsampH3UEMp5WroX3Y6eUU1tdA7B
Message:
This is nutildah, signing an old-ass Counterparty address on 12/17 (12/16 for most of you still).
Signature:
H3B8p56eKe2cysSKIb+Kr016oKRIXhF03F1K2eUORe83ZzjR+96CnKXF5RXaKbZf0tpC+cqfr0hmDvtNQBxW6lQ=
Original referenced terms:
suchmoon agrees to pay 0.1 BTC to eddie13 if Donald J Trump wins the 2020 US presidential election, and eddie13 agrees to pay 0.1 BTC to suchmoon if Donald J Trump does not win the 2020 US presidential election.
Decision logic:
Election result is considered decided by the Electoral College meeting. If the Electoral College elects Donald J Trump the president of the US following the 2020 US presidential election eddie13 wins the bet, in any other case suchmoon wins the bet except for the draw conditions listed below.
Conditions for a draw (neither side pays the other side):
If there is no presidential election in 2020.
If Donald J Trump is not on the ballot in at least 26 states.
If the Electoral College doesn't meet by midnight January 31, 2021.
Additional terms:
EC decision is final regardless of popular vote, pledged electors, unfaithful electors etc.
No presidential election in 2020 (martial law, martians invading, etc) means a draw.
Donald J Trump not running for any reason (primaried out, dead, impeached, etc) means a draw even if he wins via write-in.
Any other candidate getting elected (democrat, republican, third party, etc) means suchmoon wins.
If Donald J Trump is elected but doesn't get sworn in (dies, goes to prison, moves to Slovenia, etc) eddie13 wins.
II6Xx3PW4Gd9BirwHNamhwQ7URuvKX7t4+fpDr214AhhWCZJV2hj5rKJsi8cX+9joA0cvUbJ1If26ntGNWE0+l8=Quote:
With the same conditions as suchmoon. If Trump wins and I don't honor my repayment of 0.02 BTC everybody has permission to run my ass red. But I will repay because that's what I do.
Hell, let's up the stakes for me: I will pay you [b]0.025[/b] if Trump wins the election (on suchmoon-based terms), seeing as how you are basically giving me a loan of 0.01 BTC.
Address:
19fZGJAsampH3UEMp5WroX3Y6eUU1tdA7B
Message:
This is nutildah, signing an old-ass Counterparty address on 12/17 (12/16 for most of you still).
Signature:
H3B8p56eKe2cysSKIb+Kr016oKRIXhF03F1K2eUORe83ZzjR+96CnKXF5RXaKbZf0tpC+cqfr0hmDvtNQBxW6lQ=
Original referenced terms:
suchmoon agrees to pay 0.1 BTC to eddie13 if Donald J Trump wins the 2020 US presidential election, and eddie13 agrees to pay 0.1 BTC to suchmoon if Donald J Trump does not win the 2020 US presidential election.
Decision logic:
Election result is considered decided by the Electoral College meeting. If the Electoral College elects Donald J Trump the president of the US following the 2020 US presidential election eddie13 wins the bet, in any other case suchmoon wins the bet except for the draw conditions listed below.
Conditions for a draw (neither side pays the other side):
If there is no presidential election in 2020.
If Donald J Trump is not on the ballot in at least 26 states.
If the Electoral College doesn't meet by midnight January 31, 2021.
Additional terms:
EC decision is final regardless of popular vote, pledged electors, unfaithful electors etc.
No presidential election in 2020 (martial law, martians invading, etc) means a draw.
Donald J Trump not running for any reason (primaried out, dead, impeached, etc) means a draw even if he wins via write-in.
Any other candidate getting elected (democrat, republican, third party, etc) means suchmoon wins.
If Donald J Trump is elected but doesn't get sworn in (dies, goes to prison, moves to Slovenia, etc) eddie13 wins.
Accepted anyway but I can't find 19fZGJAsampH3UEMp5WroX3Y6eUU1tdA7B staked anywhere either..
Tisk tisk..
My mistake for not checking it first, my risk..
I'm not a hodler -- I actually .... so I can't do BTC.
Well what is one signature payment in BTC? I can wait a week after the close..
But what if it goes to $300k+? You would have to hodl it now.. ...
I could hodl some satoshis for you if you want..
OK, you have my word that I would honor this type of deal:
(I'm loaning you .01 so you can pay me .02)
With the same conditions as suchmoon. If Trump wins and I don't honor my repayment of 0.02 BTC everybody has permission to run my ass red. But I will repay because that's what I do.
Hell, let's up the stakes for me: I will pay you 0.025 if Trump wins the election (on suchmoon-based terms), seeing as how you are basically giving me a loan of 0.01 BTC.
Address:
19fZGJAsampH3UEMp5WroX3Y6eUU1tdA7B
Message:
This is nutildah, signing an old-ass Counterparty address on 12/17 (12/16 for most of you still).
Signature:
H3B8p56eKe2cysSKIb+Kr016oKRIXhF03F1K2eUORe83ZzjR+96CnKXF5RXaKbZf0tpC+cqfr0hmDvtNQBxW6lQ=
First transaction is from 9.29.14
Let me know what you think. I can sign a more specific message if you agree.
eddie13 has been subliminally eroding my confidence that I still have access to my old private key so I had to dig it up:
Address: 1A8DePhATaFEyNBJpuybCA8oYUUZEgUraP
Message: I'm still the same suchmoon 2019-12-16
Signature: HNEtXvG9iDvzIjrzKPleAdhD36kqRNPsHrKcm4sN7kdiTaLYcHLiiCC6IsboVUomN4Qf+IbXs5ab+a+mduch4Ew=
Address staked here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.40261816
Address: 1A8DePhATaFEyNBJpuybCA8oYUUZEgUraP
Message: I'm still the same suchmoon 2019-12-16
Signature: HNEtXvG9iDvzIjrzKPleAdhD36kqRNPsHrKcm4sN7kdiTaLYcHLiiCC6IsboVUomN4Qf+IbXs5ab+a+mduch4Ew=
Address staked here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.40261816
It's more likely that Bitcoin goes up to $300k and eddie13 will retire to his private island forgetting about a measly 0.1 BTC bet 
Well, it wouldn't quite be Epstein money to buy a private island and host the Clintons for Adrenochrome harvesting parties, who didn't kill himself by the way, but would be nice..
However, what happens if one of you guys dies before the 2020 election?
The other one just creates a flag.
Nothing like beating a dead horse.
However, what happens if one of you guys dies before the 2020 election?
The other one just creates a flag.
However, what happens if one of you guys dies before the 2020 election?
It's more likely that Bitcoin goes up to $300k and eddie13 will retire to his private island forgetting about a measly 0.1 BTC bet
Seriously though, I was thinking about setting up a locktime transaction to a trusted third party who could pay out if I happen to die AND lose the bet. Or just set it up to go to eddie13 and hope he returns it to my heir if I win. In some ways this would be more robust than 2-of-3 multisig (fewer third parties).
But that's not particularly high on my priority list. Besides - the chance of me somehow screwing it up and/or forgetting to move the coins if I'm alive is probably higher than me kicking the bucket within a year.
@suchmoon and @eddie13
Your bet is great and very clear.
My understanding (i read the 5 pages) is that you haven't put the funds with an escrow (you are both very well know members that won't ruin their reputation for a mere 0.1btc).
However, what happens if one of you guys dies before the 2020 election?
Wouldn't it be better if there was a multisig 2 out of 3 with on escrow in the middle?
Maybe a dead switch with a lack of activity for 45 days. You guys are posting daily, a 45 days absence would mean something bad happened.
If the winner dies, maybe the loser will want to honor the bet and "help" the family of the defunct.
If the loser dies, maybe the winner will take pity and won't claim the money as a gesture to help the family of the defunct.
Many possible scenarios...
I am sure you can work something out.
Even, what odds would you give on their performing or not performing on their bet?Your bet is great and very clear.
My understanding (i read the 5 pages) is that you haven't put the funds with an escrow (you are both very well know members that won't ruin their reputation for a mere 0.1btc).
However, what happens if one of you guys dies before the 2020 election?
Wouldn't it be better if there was a multisig 2 out of 3 with on escrow in the middle?
Maybe a dead switch with a lack of activity for 45 days. You guys are posting daily, a 45 days absence would mean something bad happened.
If the winner dies, maybe the loser will want to honor the bet and "help" the family of the defunct.
If the loser dies, maybe the winner will take pity and won't claim the money as a gesture to help the family of the defunct.
Many possible scenarios...
I am sure you can work something out.
If the odds and amount are right, maybe I can promise to pay the winner, if the other party flops.
@suchmoon and @eddie13
Your bet is great and very clear.
My understanding (i read the 5 pages) is that you haven't put the funds with an escrow (you are both very well know members that won't ruin their reputation for a mere 0.1btc).
However, what happens if one of you guys dies before the 2020 election?
Wouldn't it be better if there was a multisig 2 out of 3 with on escrow in the middle?
Maybe a dead switch with a lack of activity for 45 days. You guys are posting daily, a 45 days absence would mean something bad happened.
If the winner dies, maybe the loser will want to honor the bet and "help" the family of the defunct.
If the loser dies, maybe the winner will take pity and won't claim the money as a gesture to help the family of the defunct.
Many possible scenarios...
I am sure you can work something out.
Your bet is great and very clear.
My understanding (i read the 5 pages) is that you haven't put the funds with an escrow (you are both very well know members that won't ruin their reputation for a mere 0.1btc).
However, what happens if one of you guys dies before the 2020 election?
Wouldn't it be better if there was a multisig 2 out of 3 with on escrow in the middle?
Maybe a dead switch with a lack of activity for 45 days. You guys are posting daily, a 45 days absence would mean something bad happened.
If the winner dies, maybe the loser will want to honor the bet and "help" the family of the defunct.
If the loser dies, maybe the winner will take pity and won't claim the money as a gesture to help the family of the defunct.
Many possible scenarios...
I am sure you can work something out.
You didn't even read the whole quote did you?
Try reading more slowly, see if you can find find both county clerks and the guy that ran for mayor.
I feel like you have a bad habit of reading the first bit of an article and then just assuming you know what the entire article says. Especially if it's something you might not agree with.
Try reading more slowly, see if you can find find both county clerks and the guy that ran for mayor.
I feel like you have a bad habit of reading the first bit of an article and then just assuming you know what the entire article says. Especially if it's something you might not agree with.
I feel like you have a bad habit of imagining shit and projecting, it then imagining it as fact. The article clearly states using factual numbers that the fraud was most abundant in areas where Clinton won. You have fun imagineering and speculating about the cherries you picked.
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