Topic: [BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon - page 51. (Read 11803 times)

Polls are by default and inherently a model attempting to project real human sentiment. Neither polls nor models are by any means "factual" data but merely estimations. There is no such thing as a 100% factual poll, which is why scientifically speaking polls are near the bottom of the hierarchy of standards of evidence as an inherently flawed data collection methodology.

Eddie13 just has two eyes to see and enough functional neurons to realize the dems are far too busy burying themselves to win the election in 2020. The media will do its best to try to muddy the waters to cover up for this and keep people unsure as this is always the strategy based on the reality people will often vote for the candidate they think will win as no one wants to be on the "losing" side. As a result this kabuki act will continue until concession is made even if the Democrat front runner takes a giant steaming dump in their pants on the final debate stage.

The actual silent majority is just waiting for voting day longingly so they can tell the lunatic postmodernist Marxists who disenfranchised them to go fuck themselves. That is the real deciding factor here that dems are blinded to in their frothing spasms directed at Trump. They are too busy pointing at him to wipe the foam from the corners of their mouths.

I'm not about to go look up the "margin of error" to see exactly how much wrong each poll was against what they claim is close enough in horseshoes and hand grenades..

I look at charts.. One of my only skills in crypto is looking at charts, lol..
If you look at any of the charts very carefully you will see that Trump is on the bottom, look closely now..

And then... Like magic... Trump won..
Somehow.. Trump didn't need the charts to win..

KISS

"If every poll was wrong by the exact tolerable amount then they weren't wrong"
OK sure..
They were all as wrong as possible without being wrong..

I assure you I'm not dying on a 0.1BTC hill, lol..
I'm just having fun here talking shit..
If Trump looses, boo hoo, I was wrong.. It's not a big deal..
And I'll admit I was wrong, unlike 90% of people on the internet..

I don't understand why you are choosing to die on this hill for by blatantly rejecting data that's already been verified to be true. The polls were in the margin of error and swapping out the pictures aren't going to change that. The picture you posted was not a model, but various polls plotted on a single chart.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

Final polling averages had Clinton up by 3.3 points and the election results was Clinton +2.1 meaning the polls were within the margin of error.

Being skeptical is a healthy thing but ignoring factual data isn't.

Ok you are right.. That isn't "polls"..

Is this polls?

"This chart combines the latest  opinion polls into  trendlines using a poll-tracking model and is updated whenever a new poll is released."

About the same as right now when Trump won.. And as stated, poll votes from California and similar hopeless states don't matter..


Trump underpolls because Trump voters are 69% less likely to waste their time taking polls..

Quote from: TwitchySeal on December 10, 2019, 10:27:23 PM

There's a weird 'fuck the polls' mentality among some Trump supporters  

Can't blame a guy for being skeptical of information sources these days, can you?

In terms of the popular vote, the polls were mostly correct.

The only poll that consistently put Trump ahead of Clinton was run by the LA Times / USC -- I will be paying particularly close attention to their results this time around.

Yeah.

Eddie is also confusing polls with models.

A poll doesn't spit out the odds of each candidate to win the electoral college.  It just tells you what people responded to the poll, and then some simple math gives you the margin of error.

There's a weird 'fuck the polls' mentality among some Trump supporters, which, I assume stems from Trump actually taking a negative poll as a personal insult from the people that conducted the poll....which seems insane to me.  

These polling companies conduct thousands of polls a year.  You can look up their records, if they have consistent outliers they lose funding.  

Most of the polls conducted for the 2016 election were within the statistical margin of error, so it's not like the polls were necessarily wrong.

Also, Trump won by a total of ~50k in a handful of battleground states. Something that would happen in about 8 out of 100 election cycles, per the 92 percent chance of Clinton winning.


I'd prefer Trump over any democratic the DNC will put up but let's not act like Trump isn't in a whole lot of trouble here. If you're counting on a replication of what happened in 2016 where Trump's margin of victory will be the totality of 50k votes across 3 states, I got a bridge to sell you. With the economic numbers Trump is putting up right now, he should be up 10 points against any democratic candidate and his approval rating shouldn't be down 10 points.

Like we haven't heard that before..

An deeennn...

That's why we have the Electoral College - to give Republicans a fighting chance even if they lose the popular vote.

General Election: Trump vs. Biden:       Biden 51, Trump 42   
General Election: Trump vs. Sanders:      Sanders 51, Trump 43   
General Election: Trump vs. Warren:      Warren 50, Trump 43   
General Election: Trump vs. Buttigieg:           Buttigieg 48, Trump 43   
General Election: Trump vs. Bloomberg:   Bloomberg 48, Trump 42
General Election: Trump vs. Klobuchar:        Klobuchar 47, Trump 43   

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/general_election/


It's a bad bet going on Trump for 1:1. You should have done better odds. The democratic nominee isn't even announced yet and and Amy Klobuchar, a candidate polling at less than 1 in democratic primaries percent beats Trump by 4 points.

That was a good one!
But those are just kids, not the whores Trump was talking about..

To actually be president I do like Biden over the rest of the left fleet.. He is the most sane/conservative sounding of them..
Atleast he stuck up for the constitution over Beta Beto with the "hell yes we are going to take your AR-15's!" suicide..
Trump>Biden tho..

Ahhh I get it, you don't like Biden because he doesn't grab enough. Maybe I should let the Biden campaign know how they can win over some Republican voters

That's just a reason I like Trump..

I'll admit that that scared me for a minute when it happened, that they were gonna be able to "gettem this time!", but they couldn't..

What he said was basically, The truth about gold diggers, IMO..

Watching the heads explode after he got away with that was priceless..

The nice thing about this bet is that I can ignore Biden (I think I called him "pervy paws" once or twice) for the next ~8 months at least, but you're stuck with the pussygrabber for the duration.

You can participate if you really want to

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hggabHmAdxY

Rattling sabers..

Nice backpedaling

I don't have "voting rights" either and I don't care if eddie13 does or if he secretly votes for Democrats.

Sure you are!!

I think an argument could be made that presidents are just sockpuppets anyway and it doesn't really even matter..

It's not like a bet is going to change the elections like a proper propaganda campaign, er, I mean, posting memes..
"Russian bots" will decimate Biden with memes..
We already know us the russian bots have plenty of hillary and bernie memes as good as kryptonite from the last war stockpiled..

Considering that you're talking about future of your country, amount should be much higher, like 1 BTC. Or at least should be equal to typical monthly income.

P.S. I'm not eligible to participate in this since I don't have voting rights there.

What's your offer?