[BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon - page 51.

TwitchySeal

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Quote from: Gyfts on December 10, 2019, 11:05:37 PM

Quote from: eddie13 on December 10, 2019, 10:32:21 PM

Quote from: Gyfts on December 10, 2019, 10:19:22 PM

General Election: Trump vs. Biden:       Biden 51, Trump 42
General Election: Trump vs. Sanders:      Sanders 51, Trump 43
General Election: Trump vs. Warren:      Warren 50, Trump 43
General Election: Trump vs. Buttigieg:    Buttigieg 48, Trump 43
General Election: Trump vs. Bloomberg:   Bloomberg 48, Trump 42
General Election: Trump vs. Klobuchar: Klobuchar 47, Trump 43

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/general_election/

It's a bad bet going on Trump for 1:1. You should have done better odds. The democratic nominee isn't even announced yet and and Amy Klobuchar, a candidate polling at less than 1 in democratic primaries percent beats Trump by 4 points.

Like we haven't heard that before..

Most of the polls conducted for the 2016 election were within the statistical margin of error, so it's not like the polls were necessarily wrong.

Also, Trump won by a total of ~50k in a handful of battleground states. Something that would happen in about 8 out of 100 election cycles, per the 92 percent chance of Clinton winning.

I'd prefer Trump over any democratic the DNC will put up but let's not act like Trump isn't in a whole lot of trouble here. If you're counting on a replication of what happened in 2016 where Trump's margin of victory will be the totality of 50k votes across 3 states, I got a bridge to sell you. With the economic numbers Trump is putting up right now, he should be up 10 points against any democratic candidate and his approval rating shouldn't be down 10 points.

Yeah.

Eddie is also confusing polls with models.

A poll doesn't spit out the odds of each candidate to win the electoral college. It just tells you what people responded to the poll, and then some simple math gives you the margin of error.

There's a weird 'fuck the polls' mentality among some Trump supporters, which, I assume stems from Trump actually taking a negative poll as a personal insult from the people that conducted the poll....which seems insane to me.

These polling companies conduct thousands of polls a year. You can look up their records, if they have consistent outliers they lose funding.

Gyfts

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Quote from: eddie13 on December 10, 2019, 10:32:21 PM

Quote from: Gyfts on December 10, 2019, 10:19:22 PM

General Election: Trump vs. Biden:       Biden 51, Trump 42
General Election: Trump vs. Sanders:      Sanders 51, Trump 43
General Election: Trump vs. Warren:      Warren 50, Trump 43
General Election: Trump vs. Buttigieg:    Buttigieg 48, Trump 43
General Election: Trump vs. Bloomberg:   Bloomberg 48, Trump 42
General Election: Trump vs. Klobuchar: Klobuchar 47, Trump 43

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/general_election/

It's a bad bet going on Trump for 1:1. You should have done better odds. The democratic nominee isn't even announced yet and and Amy Klobuchar, a candidate polling at less than 1 in democratic primaries percent beats Trump by 4 points.

Like we haven't heard that before..

Most of the polls conducted for the 2016 election were within the statistical margin of error, so it's not like the polls were necessarily wrong.

Also, Trump won by a total of ~50k in a handful of battleground states. Something that would happen in about 8 out of 100 election cycles, per the 92 percent chance of Clinton winning.

I'd prefer Trump over any democratic the DNC will put up but let's not act like Trump isn't in a whole lot of trouble here. If you're counting on a replication of what happened in 2016 where Trump's margin of victory will be the totality of 50k votes across 3 states, I got a bridge to sell you. With the economic numbers Trump is putting up right now, he should be up 10 points against any democratic candidate and his approval rating shouldn't be down 10 points.

eddie13

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Quote from: Gyfts on December 10, 2019, 10:19:22 PM

General Election: Trump vs. Biden:       Biden 51, Trump 42
General Election: Trump vs. Sanders:      Sanders 51, Trump 43
General Election: Trump vs. Warren:      Warren 50, Trump 43
General Election: Trump vs. Buttigieg:    Buttigieg 48, Trump 43
General Election: Trump vs. Bloomberg:   Bloomberg 48, Trump 42
General Election: Trump vs. Klobuchar: Klobuchar 47, Trump 43

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/general_election/

It's a bad bet going on Trump for 1:1. You should have done better odds. The democratic nominee isn't even announced yet and and Amy Klobuchar, a candidate polling at less than 1 in democratic primaries percent beats Trump by 4 points.

Like we haven't heard that before..

An deeennn...

suchmoon

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Quote from: Gyfts on December 10, 2019, 10:19:22 PM

It's a bad bet going on Trump for 1:1. You should have done better odds. The democratic nominee isn't even announced yet and and Amy Klobuchar, a candidate polling at less than 1 in democratic primaries percent beats Trump by 4 points.

That's why we have the Electoral College - to give Republicans a fighting chance even if they lose the popular vote.

Gyfts

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General Election: Trump vs. Biden:       Biden 51, Trump 42
General Election: Trump vs. Sanders:      Sanders 51, Trump 43
General Election: Trump vs. Warren:      Warren 50, Trump 43
General Election: Trump vs. Buttigieg:    Buttigieg 48, Trump 43
General Election: Trump vs. Bloomberg:   Bloomberg 48, Trump 42
General Election: Trump vs. Klobuchar: Klobuchar 47, Trump 43

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/general_election/

It's a bad bet going on Trump for 1:1. You should have done better odds. The democratic nominee isn't even announced yet and and Amy Klobuchar, a candidate polling at less than 1 in democratic primaries percent beats Trump by 4 points.

eddie13

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BTC or BUST

Quote from: suchmoon on December 10, 2019, 10:07:28 PM

Quote from: eddie13 on December 10, 2019, 10:03:27 PM

Quote from: suchmoon on December 10, 2019, 09:54:27 PM

pussygrabber

That's just a reason I like Trump..

Ahhh I get it, you don't like Biden because he doesn't grab enough. Maybe I should let the Biden campaign know how they can win over some Republican voters

That was a good one!
But those are just kids, not the whores Trump was talking about..

To actually be president I do like Biden over the rest of the left fleet.. He is the most sane/conservative sounding of them..
Atleast he stuck up for the constitution over Beta Beto with the "hell yes we are going to take your AR-15's!" suicide..
Trump>Biden tho..

suchmoon

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Quote from: eddie13 on December 10, 2019, 10:03:27 PM

Quote from: suchmoon on December 10, 2019, 09:54:27 PM

pussygrabber

That's just a reason I like Trump..

Ahhh I get it, you don't like Biden because he doesn't grab enough. Maybe I should let the Biden campaign know how they can win over some Republican voters

eddie13

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Quote from: suchmoon on December 10, 2019, 09:54:27 PM

pussygrabber

That's just a reason I like Trump..

I'll admit that that scared me for a minute when it happened, that they were gonna be able to "gettem this time!", but they couldn't..

What he said was basically, The truth about gold diggers, IMO..

Watching the heads explode after he got away with that was priceless..

suchmoon

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Quote from: eddie13 on December 10, 2019, 09:46:10 PM

Rattling sabers..

The nice thing about this bet is that I can ignore Biden (I think I called him "pervy paws" once or twice) for the next ~8 months at least, but you're stuck with the pussygrabber for the duration.

iluvbitcoins

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Freedom&Honor

Quote from: Balthazar on December 10, 2019, 09:10:08 PM

Quote from: suchmoon on December 10, 2019, 09:05:37 PM

What's your offer?

Considering that you're talking about future of your country, amount should be much higher, like 1 BTC. Or at least should be equal to typical monthly income.

P.S. I'm not eligible to participate in this since I don't have voting rights there.

You can participate if you really want to

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hggabHmAdxY

eddie13

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BTC or BUST

Rattling sabers..

suchmoon

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Quote from: Balthazar on December 10, 2019, 09:10:08 PM

Quote from: suchmoon on December 10, 2019, 09:05:37 PM

What's your offer?

Considering that you're talking about future of your country, amount should be much higher, like 1 BTC. Or at least should be equal to typical monthly income.

P.S. I'm not eligible to participate in this since I don't have voting rights there.

Nice backpedaling Wink

I don't have "voting rights" either and I don't care if eddie13 does or if he secretly votes for Democrats.

eddie13

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BTC or BUST

Quote from: Balthazar on December 10, 2019, 09:10:08 PM

I'm not eligible to participate in this

Sure you are!!

Quote from: Balthazar on December 10, 2019, 09:10:08 PM

future of your country

I think an argument could be made that presidents are just sockpuppets anyway and it doesn't really even matter..

It's not like a bet is going to change the elections like ~~a proper propaganda campaign~~, er, I mean, posting memes..
"Russian bots" will decimate Biden with memes..
We already know us the russian bots have plenty of hillary and bernie memes as good as kryptonite from the last war stockpiled..

Balthazar

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Quote from: suchmoon on December 10, 2019, 09:05:37 PM

What's your offer?

Considering that you're talking about future of your country, amount should be much higher, like 1 BTC. Or at least should be equal to typical monthly income.

P.S. I'm not eligible to participate in this since I don't have voting rights there.

suchmoon

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Quote from: Balthazar on December 10, 2019, 09:01:43 PM

0.1 BTC? Pssshhhh. Why you're considering it as worthy as bet on presidential elections? I wouldn't even write this post for such amount.
Looks like you're not taking it serious at all.

What's your offer?

Balthazar

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0.1 BTC? Pssshhhh. Why you're considering it worthy as bet on presidential elections? I wouldn't even write this post for such amount.
Looks like you're not taking it serious at all.

TECSHARE

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First Exclusion Ever

Quote from: eddie13 on December 10, 2019, 08:14:28 PM

Quote from: suchmoon on December 10, 2019, 07:38:33 PM

-complex gambler speak-

I'm not much of a "gambler" but personal bets are fun..
This won't be the first time I've won and been paid on a bet like this here

but could be my first loss...

I like the bet and don't want to hedge against it..
I wanted the bet and someone finally took it, and I'm glad it's you for a few reasons..

Quote from: TECSHARE on December 10, 2019, 07:33:22 PM

the quote from me above was not to suggest a wager, but was pointing out the fact that it is really easy to pretend you were on the right track all along after the fact when you dither, fence sit, and never declare your own conclusions. Some people like to feel smart on the sidelines never even risking a prediction.

You didn't pressure me, I just upped the ante..
No fence for me..

Maybe I should bet people on stuff like this more often.. I'll keep it in mind..

I wasn't under the impression I pressured you, I just wanted to clarify especially since it was a direct reply to another user. I would tell you good luck with your bet, but seeing how the Democrat party is intent on continuing it's journey to the center of the Earth until they hit a pocket of molten magma, I don't think you need luck.

eddie13

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Quote from: suchmoon on December 10, 2019, 07:38:33 PM

-complex gambler speak-

I'm not much of a "gambler" but personal bets are fun..
This won't be the first time I've won and been paid on a bet like this here

but could be my first loss...

I like the bet and don't want to hedge against it..
I wanted the bet and someone finally took it, and I'm glad it's you for a few reasons..

Quote from: TECSHARE on December 10, 2019, 07:33:22 PM

the quote from me above was not to suggest a wager, but was pointing out the fact that it is really easy to pretend you were on the right track all along after the fact when you dither, fence sit, and never declare your own conclusions. Some people like to feel smart on the sidelines never even risking a prediction.

You didn't pressure me, I just upped the ante..
No fence for me..

Maybe I should bet people on stuff like this more often.. I'll keep it in mind..

suchmoon

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Quote from: eddie13 on December 10, 2019, 06:53:45 PM

This bet is basically because I ran my mouth and suchmoon called me out on it lol, so I had to honor it no mater what, but SM was nice enough to give some pretty fair draw conditions IMO, generously.. I think my draw conditions might be worth the lost possible, uh, pay spread for the bet that I could have got from some shady bookie site..

If you wanted to simulate similar bet terms on a sportsbook site the closest you can get I think is to bet on Trump winning and on him not getting the nomination.

Let's say Trump's win offers +125, so you'd need +400 or better on the no-nomination bet so that you could put 0.025 BTC on it and get 0.125 BTC back if Trump doesn't get the nomination.

Still not quite the same since I'm offering a draw if Trump drops out after the nomination as well. And you don't need to tie up additional funds for the hedge bet. And the "no nomination" offer is next to non-existent... most sites offer only a list of potential nominees without a blanket "not Trump" option.

Quote from: eddie13 on December 10, 2019, 06:53:45 PM

Is 0.1BTC going big?

It's ~0.000005 of a large pizza.

TECSHARE

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First Exclusion Ever

Quote from: eddie13 on December 10, 2019, 06:53:45 PM

Quote from: seoincorporation on December 10, 2019, 05:47:40 PM

Small risk brings small prices. And we could be sure suchmoon and eddie13 will go big or go home Grin

Sportsbook arbitrage has been interesting to me ever sense I read topics by darkstar about it seemingly years ago but I never got around to it, vetting all these shady ass betting sites, doing all the math, etc..

I don't even know if it is legal for me, and if not, surely not worth the hassle..

This bet is basically because I ran my mouth and suchmoon called me out on it lol, so I had to honor it no mater what, but SM was nice enough to give some pretty fair draw conditions IMO, generously.. I think my draw conditions might be worth the lost possible, uh, pay spread for the bet that I could have got from some shady bookie site..

Quote from: eddie13 on November 24, 2019, 02:56:49 AM

Quote from: TECSHARE on November 17, 2019, 08:54:51 PM

Its easy to feel like a winner when you don't put down any stakes eh?

I'll take a 0.1BTC 1:1 trump wins 2020..

Quote from: suchmoon on December 07, 2019, 01:31:24 AM

Quote from: eddie13 on December 06, 2019, 03:33:40 AM

Should a casino not allow you to make an absolutely stupid bet?
Like betting against Trump 2020 for example? (Ha Ha I Joke)

We'll see who has the last ha ha

For mouth running references Wink

I like the bet and I'd take it again probably even if I never said this/offered it in the first place..

Is 0.1BTC going big?

Just to be absolutely clear, the quote from me above was not to suggest a wager, but was pointing out the fact that it is really easy to pretend you were on the right track all along after the fact when you dither, fence sit, and never declare your own conclusions. Some people like to feel smart on the sidelines never even risking a prediction.

Topic: [BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon - page 51. (Read 11316 times)