Topic: [BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon - page 52. (Read 11316 times)

Sportsbook arbitrage has been interesting to me ever sense I read topics by darkstar about it seemingly years ago but I never got around to it, vetting all these shady ass betting sites, doing all the math, etc..

I don't even know if it is legal for me, and if not, surely not worth the hassle..


This bet is basically because I ran my mouth and suchmoon called me out on it lol, so I had to honor it no mater what, but SM was nice enough to give some pretty fair draw conditions IMO, generously.. I think my draw conditions might be worth the lost possible, uh, pay spread for the bet that I could have got from some shady bookie site..


For mouth running references


I like the bet and I'd take it again probably even if I never said this/offered it in the first place..

Is 0.1BTC going big?

You are right, if suchmoon place a bet on DT to win 0.2125BTC if he loses the bet he will win 0.0125, and if he win the bet then he will end with cero No win and no lose. It is the chance to win 0.0125 with zero risks. But maybe such a small prize doesn't deserve the move.

Small risk brings small prices. And we could be sure suchmoon and eddie13 will go big or go home 

You're right, the other bookie websites will be paying out more. But there's no real way to hedge this whole thing b/c there's no Dem nominee at this point and any money that you put on any individual candidate (think Biden) could turn into nothing if hes not the nominee.

You'd get more on Nitrogen, but who knows if Nitrogen is going to be around in a year and you'd have to leave it on their centralized exchange for this whole time.

You've got it backwards. (I think)

Nitrogen is offering 2.125x (+115) On Trump

Eddie took 2.0x with Suchmoon (+100) On Trump

Crazy bet my friend suchmoon, I remember when casinos offer x5 if trump wins the elections, in that moment i place a bet and people were crazy saying i was wating my money. But it has a happy end.

The problem with this bet is the odds, as you can see in nitro if donal trumps win the house pays x2.125

https://nitrogensports.eu/sport/specials/u.s.-presidential-election

This way if eddie13 places a bet on that site he could warrants a win. If trump wins he get 0.0125 and if trump loses he gets zero but he doesn't lose the risked 0.1

I would love a much more conservative president than Trump.. I see him as quite centrist actually, a good bit further left than me..

But, Trump is probably the only one with the personality to stump the left with such precision while shedding their attacks like water off a ducks back, basically saving the country from liberal ideocracy, and most importantly saving the SCOTUS and therefor saving the constitution..

I surely don't like everything Trump does, most prominently being weak on the 2A, including banning bumpstocks..
I would rather their be ZERO compromise on the 2A whatsoever..

There are betting markets that operate more like markets than a sports book offering prop bets on the election. The given odds are similar on these markets (the sports books may even use these markets to hedge any bets received in excess of certain amounts.

To be fair, on election morning 2016, IIRC, Trump had something like 3% odds of winning the election on the betting markets.

The OP isn't the only one throwing away her money betting against Trump, immediately after Trump was elected, Soros lost over a billion dollars betting against US stocks after trump won (or maybe it was trying to get markets to fall, IDK).



I have my doubts that Democrats would be willing to try this. With impeachment, they are at least pretending that Trump broke the law, but in this scenario, they would be outright ignoring the election outcome. I think even attempting this would result in major Democratic losses in 2022, and would almost seal a loss in 2024. I also have my doubts that Democrats would be united in voting for such a measure. If there was an actual controversy, I would imagine the SC would step in and make a ruling with regards to the specific controversy, similar to what they did in 2000.

I don't think anyone really believes that Stacy Abrams actually won the GA governors race in 2018.

Well good for them to be so principled but I meant actual Republican voters. It's like picking cryptohunter to be a global moderator because his posts are the longest. Surely there are candidates who could carry the conservative ideas with more intelligence and ultimately with more impact.


Plural vs singular aside, IIRC by law all meetings are supposed to be held on the same day. Do you know when that would not be the case? If that happens I would consider it a draw if at least one state's electors don't meet by January 31 2021.


eddie13 would lose then. The EC has to elect Trump for eddie13 to win.


I would then rely on the states and ignore Congress but if eddie13 feels otherwise we can make an addendum.

This got me thinking if EC vote result is made immediately public in each state. It's public in a few states that I know of but it might have been wrong to assume that's the case everywhere.

Yeah I don't think anyone would feel to comfortable betting on an illegal / not regulated online bookie website for something that's not going to be decided for another year or so. So that's not something  I'd be willing to do.

A Decentralized bet on ETH, MAYBE. But even that I'd feel that within that year time frame someone would be able to crack some code within the decentralized site.

Too long for a bet on a site like this, p2p with multisig is prob best for bigger bets. Smaller ones I guess you could just trust the other side to cough it up.

At the moment I'd give Trump an advantage, but I wouldn't bet much on it. Biden is currently the clear favorite for the nomination, and although he's a shockingly poor candidate, Trump has several must-win states with close polls. There are many plausible paths for Biden to win vs Trump, even if none of them look particularly probable right now IMO. Also, there's some chance of Bernie or Buttigieg winning the nomination, and I think they'd have much better odds than Biden vs Trump. I also still see an elevated chance of recession in 2020, which would hurt Trump a lot.

If you want to nitpick the bet construction: There is no one "electoral college meeting". Each state has an electoral college meeting at separate places and times; the electors there write down their state's votes and send them to the House of Representatives, where they are tabulated sometime in early January. There's a small chance of odd occurrences here:

First, there's a small but not-safely-ignorable chance of a 270-270 tie, or of a third-party candidate getting votes and creating a non-majority. Then the (incoming) House decides, but they vote in a weird way which (at a quick glance) probably favors the Republicans.

Second, on a majority vote in both the (incoming) House & Senate, a state's electoral votes can be completely ignored on the grounds that the state's electoral votes were not handled legally, such as due to an election conducted contrary to state or federal law. You could imagine this happening if one side wins both chambers of Congress but not the presidency, and they can point to some sort of "election interference" (as both sides like to complain about) in one or more states. This would make your bet particularly ambiguous, since Congress would be saying that some of the electors are not actually proper electors.

Maybe not "by that time", but I am basically "BTC to $300k" with about the same or maybe even more seriousness that I was "BTC to $10k" in like 2015..


I wouldn't doubt that a bit..


Lets see if I can recall correctly here..
Didn't the Republican party allow their party to be "destroyed" in the 2016 election primaries by allowing Trump to fairly win the primary, while the Democrats "grew a backbone" and rigged the primary for hillary against that communist bernie?

I don't remember that working out too good for them..
Isn't the DNC in massive debt right now struggling to rake in "donations" while the RNC has money flowing like Niagara Falls?


https://ballotpedia.org/Party_committee_fundraising,_2019-2020

He doesn't have to if Republicans decided to grow a backbone. But since they're going the opposite route I wonder where they'll find a mumbling idiot to nominate in 2024 to keep the base happy. Anyone wanna offer bets on that?


No big deal - eddie13 said Bitcoin's gonna be like $300k by that time so I won't have any financial worries.


In a nutshell, yes. There is fine print too, usually hidden somewhere and it's often not well-suited for non-sports events and may come down to "we'll pay you if we feel like it".

https://www.oddsshark.com/other/2020-usa-presidential-odds-futures

I'm not super familiar with sportsbook betting, or whatever you call this, but isn't "100" equal to a 1:1 bet, anything over 100 means the odds are against your bet and you would win more than risked?

So, If I bet there trump to win a @125, if Trump did win I would win .125 if I bet .1?

My odds on a straight "Trump wins" bet would be greater there right now, but I would give up all of my draw conditions in the SM bet, such as if Trump decided to retire and endorse/campaign for say Pence, I would loose there, so it balances out decently imo..

According to that chart with hitlery @ +3000, If I bet .1 on the shilldog to win it would pay 30X and therefore pay out 3.0 BTC for a .1 BTC bet?

I think @DarkStar_ is the best sportsbook arbitrage expert about these things that I know of..

The liberal insanity has been so high that Trump has to win.
Bad bet suchmoon 

It looks like a possibility for arbitrage except for the draw conditions. I wouldn't get a proper hedge by betting on Trump winning because of the possibility of Trump not getting the nomination, and hedging for that one has a surprisingly high cost with most bookies (+300 or +400 when I would have expected closer to +1000). So I'm not planning to bother with that and will just let it ride as is.

On the other hand, eddie13 could have found better odds somewhere else but who knows, maybe as the election approaches he'll get a shot at arbitrage if he wants to reduce his risk.

I bet (pun intended) that squatz1 is now crunching those numbers too.

I would consider myself ~50% convinced (i.e. not convinced at all) that the impeachment was at least partially staged (i.e. alot of those playing a role in the impeachment aren't in on the joke) and that it is just another vector by which to maximize the polarization of the US voting class. But such things are so hypothetical, going on to say "because reelection is pre-planned" is too much of a stretch. Sure, you could argue it would be convenient to have Trump in charge during any kind of market panic, but if there's any orchestration going on at all with the Trump phenomenon (highly likely, but we in the public have no certainty of), guessing multiple moves in advance isn't very productive speculation

I dunno, anything could happen. I remember in 2016 I thought the 1.4x payout on Hillary Clinton was easy money all day long (this was on DirectBet, so maybe it was a slightly higher payout on other sites). Pretty happy I never actually put a bet in on that one.

I remember their 2 selections were Hillary Clinton and "Republican Candidate." They never bothered putting in "Donald Trump," because I guess he was too much of a wildcard.

In any case, the moral of the story is, anything can (and does) happen!

If Trump to win at +125 is accurate it means Suchmoon will win the bet 55.6 % of the time and the BTC0.1 is now worth BTC0.125

I've seen it bouncing around from +110 - +130 on a few other offshore books.

Congrats Suchmoon!

Although, in politics the books just set the prices based on where the money is going, so it's much less of an indicator than any professional sporting event where they analyze huge amounts of data.  Also, most of the money is probably coming from non-US residents.  I had to use a vpn just to access that site.

Trump is currently favored to win the election, but the specific odds reflect that he will lose.

Based on the above, suchmoon could take this bet payout out even money, and bet on Trump to win the election on a reputable gambling site, and profit regardless of who wins the election, provided both counter-parties pay out.

I dunno, Biden and Vermin Supreme are about a toss up. Mandatory ponies for everyone is a popular platform compared to a chomo with dementia, no matter how much he knows about roaches.