Date: 31-Oct-2017
BETI: 0.067
VWAP: 6284.18
x: 2,663
a: 0.003297
b: -0.101545
Rsq: 0.828239
Expected price: 5875.10
Actual price / expected price: 106.96%
BETI ATL price: 632.53
BETI ATH price: 38034.57
Expected date: 20-Nov-2017
# of days ahead: 20.42
Daily VWAP rank: 1
Next expected price: 5894.50
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00329704205661438++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.101545442964722+%29
Topic: BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis - page 20. (Read 110414 times)
November 01, 2017, 06:23:16 AM
According to BETI, the ATH of $38k is expected for the 12 November ?
Am I understanding well all the data ?
No - the current price would have been expected on 12 November. We are ~13 days ahead of the trend. IF the index was at it's previous ATH, the price would be ~$38k.
Edit - That sounded negative
. For some hopium, each time the trend has surpassed 0, it hit an ATH fairly quickly.Thanks !
According to BETI, the ATH of $38k is expected for the 12 November ?
Am I understanding well all the data ?
No - the current price would have been expected on 12 November. We are ~13 days ahead of the trend. IF the index was at it's previous ATH, the price would be ~$38k.
Edit - That sounded negative
. For some hopium, each time the trend has surpassed 0, it hit an ATH fairly quickly. Date: 30-Oct-2017
BETI: 0.045
VWAP: 6124.21
x: 2,662
a: 0.003297
b: -0.101495
Rsq: 0.828074
Expected price: 5855.16
Actual price / expected price: 104.59%
BETI ATL price: 630.38
BETI ATH price: 37905.54
Expected date: 12-Nov-2017
# of days ahead: 13.63
Daily VWAP rank: 1
Next expected price: 5874.50
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00329698500847897++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.101494714460353+%29
BETI: 0.045
VWAP: 6124.21
x: 2,662
a: 0.003297
b: -0.101495
Rsq: 0.828074
Expected price: 5855.16
Actual price / expected price: 104.59%
BETI ATL price: 630.38
BETI ATH price: 37905.54
Expected date: 12-Nov-2017
# of days ahead: 13.63
Daily VWAP rank: 1
Next expected price: 5874.50
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00329698500847897++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.101494714460353+%29
According to BETI, the ATH of $38k is expected for the 12 November ?
Am I understanding well all the data ?
BETI: 0.045
It's happening. Have we ever broken 0, held and not continued higher?
yes, check it out:
BETI: 0.045
It's happening. Have we ever broken 0, held and not continued higher?
Date: 30-Oct-2017
BETI: 0.045
VWAP: 6124.21
x: 2,662
a: 0.003297
b: -0.101495
Rsq: 0.828074
Expected price: 5855.16
Actual price / expected price: 104.59%
BETI ATL price: 630.38
BETI ATH price: 37905.54
Expected date: 12-Nov-2017
# of days ahead: 13.63
Daily VWAP rank: 1
Next expected price: 5874.50
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00329698500847897++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.101494714460353+%29
BETI: 0.045
VWAP: 6124.21
x: 2,662
a: 0.003297
b: -0.101495
Rsq: 0.828074
Expected price: 5855.16
Actual price / expected price: 104.59%
BETI ATL price: 630.38
BETI ATH price: 37905.54
Expected date: 12-Nov-2017
# of days ahead: 13.63
Daily VWAP rank: 1
Next expected price: 5874.50
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00329698500847897++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.101494714460353+%29
Yes I used a slightly different timeframe.
Starting 31/7/2010 Mt Gox.
From 02/01/2012 Bitstamp. For any missing days I used previous available price.
Starting 31/7/2010 Mt Gox.
From 02/01/2012 Bitstamp. For any missing days I used previous available price.
Thanks, it seems you used a different timeframe so your results is not same as mine
This is my data source:
17 Jul 2010 to 18 Jun 2013: MtGox
19 Jun 2013 to now: Bitstamp
Dates omitted:
20 Jun 2011 to 25 Jun 2011 (MtGox closed)
6 Jan 2015 to 8 Jan 2015 (Bitstamp closed)
This is my data source:
17 Jul 2010 to 18 Jun 2013: MtGox
19 Jun 2013 to now: Bitstamp
Dates omitted:
20 Jun 2011 to 25 Jun 2011 (MtGox closed)
6 Jan 2015 to 8 Jan 2015 (Bitstamp closed)
Update 27 Oct:
Being a fan of Johnsons approach I made a google docs spreadsheet based on this thread.
Thought I would share it. I will try and improve the spreadsheet in the future to make it more interactive and show more data:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wfAzREX-FnwSrGDKfKNwndX2uc54q27mbhFp0gyQRcw/edit?usp=sharing
Exponential graph with line of best fist (blue). Red is a lower slope line based on possibility that exponential growth will be lower as we go forward in time.
Volatility will likely go down in future, plus being conservative let’s choose a BETI of 1 for top of cycle (all time high BETI is 1.8 ).
Let’s assume the next bubble is in 90 days. This would gives us cyclic price high of:
$20 468 based on line of best fit.
$14576 for conservative slope line.
If in 150 days we reach lowest BETI point with BETI of -1.7 (assuming lower volatility).
That gives us cyclic price low of :
$1672 for line of best fit.
$1152 for conservative line.
If the downturn is slower and we reach BETI low of -1.7 in 300 days. The price will be:
$2727 based on line of best fit.
$1727 based on conservative line.
And if we reach BETI of 1.46 (slightly below last BETI high) in 120 days. The price would be:
$35754 for line of best fit.
$25039 for conservative line.
Being a fan of Johnsons approach I made a google docs spreadsheet based on this thread.
Thought I would share it. I will try and improve the spreadsheet in the future to make it more interactive and show more data:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wfAzREX-FnwSrGDKfKNwndX2uc54q27mbhFp0gyQRcw/edit?usp=sharing
Exponential graph with line of best fist (blue). Red is a lower slope line based on possibility that exponential growth will be lower as we go forward in time.
Volatility will likely go down in future, plus being conservative let’s choose a BETI of 1 for top of cycle (all time high BETI is 1.8 ).
Let’s assume the next bubble is in 90 days. This would gives us cyclic price high of:
$20 468 based on line of best fit.
$14576 for conservative slope line.
If in 150 days we reach lowest BETI point with BETI of -1.7 (assuming lower volatility).
That gives us cyclic price low of :
$1672 for line of best fit.
$1152 for conservative line.
If the downturn is slower and we reach BETI low of -1.7 in 300 days. The price will be:
$2727 based on line of best fit.
$1727 based on conservative line.
And if we reach BETI of 1.46 (slightly below last BETI high) in 120 days. The price would be:
$35754 for line of best fit.
$25039 for conservative line.
Date: 28-Oct-2017
BETI: -0.014
VWAP: 5736.04
x: 2,660
a: 0.003297
b: -0.101441
Rsq: 0.827748
Expected price: 5816.06
Actual price / expected price: 98.62%
BETI ATL price: 626.17
BETI ATH price: 37652.39
Expected date: 23-Oct-2017
# of days ahead: -4.20
Daily VWAP rank: 7
Next expected price: 5835.27
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00329692469867955++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.101441113202961+%29
BETI: -0.014
VWAP: 5736.04
x: 2,660
a: 0.003297
b: -0.101441
Rsq: 0.827748
Expected price: 5816.06
Actual price / expected price: 98.62%
BETI ATL price: 626.17
BETI ATH price: 37652.39
Expected date: 23-Oct-2017
# of days ahead: -4.20
Daily VWAP rank: 7
Next expected price: 5835.27
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00329692469867955++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.101441113202961+%29
Great post @DanielW
Have not you thought about adding a column with the date?
What is the index that you take as a reference? it seems that it is not Bitstamp
Do you update the value manually?
Have not you thought about adding a column with the date?
What is the index that you take as a reference? it seems that it is not Bitstamp
Do you update the value manually?
Great post Daniel. This is the most bullish thread on this whole forum to me, imo
Thanks for this. Very helpful.
Update 27 Oct:
Being a fan of Johnsons approach I made a google docs spreadsheet based on this thread.
Thought I would share it. I will try and improve the spreadsheet in the future to make it more interactive and show more data:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wfAzREX-FnwSrGDKfKNwndX2uc54q27mbhFp0gyQRcw/edit?usp=sharing
Exponential graph with line of best fist (blue). Red is a lower slope line based on possibility that exponential growth will be lower as we go forward in time.
Volatility will likely go down in future, plus being conservative let’s choose a BETI of 1 for top of cycle (all time high BETI is 1.8 ).
Let’s assume the next bubble is in 90 days. This would gives us cyclic price high of:
$20 468 based on line of best fit.
$14576 for conservative slope line.
If in 150 days we reach lowest BETI point with BETI of -1.7 (assuming lower volatility).
That gives us cyclic price low of :
$1672 for line of best fit.
$1152 for conservative line.
If the downturn is slower and we reach BETI low of -1.7 in 300 days. The price will be:
$2727 based on line of best fit.
$1727 based on conservative line.
And if we reach BETI of 1.46 (slightly below last BETI high) in 120 days. The price would be:
$35754 for line of best fit.
$25039 for conservative line.
Being a fan of Johnsons approach I made a google docs spreadsheet based on this thread.
Thought I would share it. I will try and improve the spreadsheet in the future to make it more interactive and show more data:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wfAzREX-FnwSrGDKfKNwndX2uc54q27mbhFp0gyQRcw/edit?usp=sharing
Exponential graph with line of best fist (blue). Red is a lower slope line based on possibility that exponential growth will be lower as we go forward in time.
Volatility will likely go down in future, plus being conservative let’s choose a BETI of 1 for top of cycle (all time high BETI is 1.8 ).
Let’s assume the next bubble is in 90 days. This would gives us cyclic price high of:
$20 468 based on line of best fit.
$14576 for conservative slope line.
If in 150 days we reach lowest BETI point with BETI of -1.7 (assuming lower volatility).
That gives us cyclic price low of :
$1672 for line of best fit.
$1152 for conservative line.
If the downturn is slower and we reach BETI low of -1.7 in 300 days. The price will be:
$2727 based on line of best fit.
$1727 based on conservative line.
And if we reach BETI of 1.46 (slightly below last BETI high) in 120 days. The price would be:
$35754 for line of best fit.
$25039 for conservative line.
Hello, has the positive/negative absolute value any meaning or is it just a relative number that can be either pos/neg without any implications?
+ is above the long term exponential trend
- is below it
0 is right on track
Back under.
Hello, has the positive/negative absolute value any meaning or is it just a relative number that can be either pos/neg without any implications?
BETI breaking into higher positive numbers! Let the rocket to the moon Mars take off! 
Date: 20-Oct-2017
BETI: 0.039
VWAP: 5891.45
x: 2,652
a: 0.003297
b: -0.101398
Rsq: 0.826453
Expected price: 5664.18
Actual price / expected price: 104.01%
BETI ATL price: 609.82
BETI ATH price: 36669.10
Expected date: 31-Oct-2017
# of days ahead: 11.93
Daily VWAP rank: 1
Next expected price: 5682.88
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00329687576397175++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.101397809399009+%29
BETI: 0.039
VWAP: 5891.45
x: 2,652
a: 0.003297
b: -0.101398
Rsq: 0.826453
Expected price: 5664.18
Actual price / expected price: 104.01%
BETI ATL price: 609.82
BETI ATH price: 36669.10
Expected date: 31-Oct-2017
# of days ahead: 11.93
Daily VWAP rank: 1
Next expected price: 5682.88
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00329687576397175++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.101397809399009+%29
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