Topic: Bitcoin Dominance rising again. What is happening? - page 2. (Read 2122 times)

I am not surprised seeing bitcoin dominating the market again and again. It is the best cryptocurrencies that we can see has lasted long term and having consistently progress. If you had of cryptocurrencies the number one thing that always comes to your mind is bitcoin.

Ok I finally read it, most of it anyway 

I've heard this type of phrase before, it goes into my list of "this time is different" scenarios.

• "This time it's different" regarding Bitcoin.
• "This time there won't be a bubble in cyrptocurrency"
• "This time people won't over-speculate"
• "This time people will be sensible"

So everyone has learnt their lesson, like they did in 2014 you mean? Like they did in 2018 you mean? Like they will in 2022 you mean? I don't get this backwards thinking. Nobody has learnt anything sensible, only that the more risk you take the more you have to gain - as well as the more you have to lose (the latter usually comes later though!). 2018 proved that in 2014 new investors learnt nothing. This is because new investors drawn into a bubble know very little, apart from how much money they could make. Older investors who have experienced bear markets instead know how much money they could lose, and are therefore much wiser, speculating much less or not at all into altcoins.

More relevantly, as referenced elsewhere, altcoin dominance has nothing to do with altcoin value, but instead short-term speculation. To explain this simply, it's due to the "production rate". Each cycle has seen a different breed of altcoins gain dominance, and subsequently lose it (usually only to crash and burn into nothing). We've seen this twice already, but overall altcoin dominance is still in a long-term bullish trend upwards - which is made possible by the generation of new altcoins that continue claiming dominance (this year it is/was DeFi by looks of it), with the older altcoins manage to hold onto a fraction of the dominance they once had - causing the overall long-term increase in altcoin dominance. Not value.

If you want a metric for altcoin value, then ETH.D (Ethereum dominance) would be a better place to look imo, as it's the no.1 altcoin that's actually stuck around for the time being.

PS - Somethings are just easy to predict, as they repeat themselves with the same rhythm


Call it a "lucky guess" if you like, but as documented in the TA from October last year, this was based on the same metrics occuring as late 2015 (unsurprisingly, 4 years later).

Surprise, American dollars are not backed by the US government either

It just happens to be printing them, sometimes out of thin air. If you disagree, what does it back them up with then? Further, let's proceed with the fact that USDT is not even a currency. The point is that it can't possibly be a cryptocurrency while not being a currency. It is essentially a token which gets traded here and there. However, a token is not a currency because it is simply a digital representation of some asset, and this asset in case of USDT happens to be the dollar. This is what Tether says, which also claims to be backing it up with real dollars. Are you going to challenge their claims?

Guys, don't forget what shitcoins means. That the are, actually, shit.
So trying to differentiate why they taste differently might be an interesting excercice, but the result do not change: they are shitcoins.
Also this is why dominance is a flawed indicator: you are comparing Bitcoin with shitcoins, as if you could draw any interesting conclusion comparing the two.

USDT is not backed by the US government so it is a cryptocurrency in that it depends on that blockchain and its integrity.   I'd rather disallow every blockchain that is reliant on a centralised source, so that'd take XRP off the charts.   Too radical for anyone to agree with but correct perspective imo.

People are selling cryptocurrencies for USDT when they want to fix their profits in the American dollar, which is also a currency. Further, USDT is not a standalone currency as it simply represents the dollar in the cryptocurrencies market (which you seem to understand). So, if we assume that USDT is rightfully included in the mix, then we should also include all the dollars traded for bitcoins, as USDT necessarily represents a certain portion of this exchange. Put shortly, you can't have it both ways in a meaningful way, while including all dollars would render the entire stats less than useless

Unless your sole intention is to come up with more formidable numbers, of course

USDT is there because it is considered a currency as well and it is backed by blockchain as well so there is really no reason to not include it. However it is also pegged by dollars as well so it is not really going to change in levels neither, it is always going to be the same price year in and year out every single second. Sure there are times when it goes down a bit but it never goes down too much, same with going up as well.

At the end of the day I agree that it should not be calculated when you are looking at the dominance. USDT is just a stable coin that is there to help people trade bitcoin easier instead of changing it back to fiat which is hard normally without USDT, it is not really a coin to invest or a coin to promote, it is one that you use purely for trading reasons.

I guess the developers of the altcoins aren't as perseverant as the developers of bitcoin are. All the altcoin developers do good in the start and then if the altcoin doesn't perform well then they lack interest in that project and try to find another project to make some money.
Also as the price of bitcoins is increasing but the Altcoins are at the same price or many of them are in negative so people are loosing their interest in altcoins and are selling their alts to buy bitcoins.

I totally agree.
This is another reason why market dominance is a very biased indicator.
USD is the fourth market cap "crypto" accounting for almost 3% of total market capitalisation.
I think subtracting it from total market share would make the indicator overall better, but wouldn't dramatically change the situation. Also please note the image and data all include Stablecoins in total market capitalisation , and I haven't the possibility to exclude them.
In the coin360.com graph it is actually possible to hide UST from the picture, but alas it is included in the final computation.

I don't think it is correct to include USDT in the distribution

Stablecoins, and especially centralized stablecoins like USDT, are essentially proxies for fiat currencies (in this case the American dollar), and counting them in severely distorts the picture. It is like counting all dollars (euro, yuan, whatever) spent on cryptocurrencies. In this manner, stablecoins should be subtracted from the total market cap (or not included in the first place), as it is the same as counting bitcoins twice. It makes no sense. I know that stats wouldn't look as pleasing without them, but the data will be more real

Updating this thread.
The one with Bitcoin dominance is a strange love-hate relatioship.
Love, because we all love looking at bitcoin dominance going up
Hate, because we all know how much this is a shitty metric to look Bitcoin at.

Last tweet I saw about it:





https://twitter.com/CryptoGulp/status/1267101164618878976

Here it goes the usual graph from Coinmarketcap form the last year:



Deducting somethin meaningful from this random noise goes well above my abilities.
Even trying to zoom in with a more detailed graph, adds little context in my opinion:



Even thou I saw twitter accounts trying to sell a "mini-altseason" rhetoric on that graph, it really looks white noise to me.


What I see in the last month or so, after the halving btw is that BTC gained against every other coin, except ETH:



This is what it counts to me.

A a last warning about the buzz we will hear on dominance on the next few weeks, I almost missed the news of Bitfinex launching a deriviatives contract on dominance:

Bitfinex Now Has a Derivatives Contract Offering Exposure to Bitcoin Dominance



This means we wil hear more about dominance, as most traders will try to "play" other actors into this metric.

Bitcoin dominance is now reduced, and has decreased, this is good news for altcoin holders, it seems true, 2020 is the year for altcoin partying  

It depends on how you look at things. Eth's all time high is a bit over $1400 so that makes its current price about 85% lower than that high. If you got in cheap enough recently you are doing fairly well, but nothing too exciting. I think the frustration of people who expected Eth to be at $500 by now doesn't outweigh the gains it booked in the more recent weeks.

I think it's safe to say that the happiest (known) Eth holder today is scammer Richard Heart. People are still sending their Eth to his smart contract in exchange for poop hex tokens. You would expect that with the upcoming upgrades for Ethereum people to think twice before sending their Eth to a scammer, but nope. 

Very interesting point.

I really don’t know. If someone uses DOGE as a stablecoin this really challenge my mind, but I cannot infer anything from this (apart maybe the weird human nature).
Of course my previous statement tried to be general... the way I see things.

That's not quite true. I don't know about all altcoins, but as far as I checked the trading volumes at a couple of exchanges, people trade Dogecoin mostly for fiat currencies (though not necessarily USD). That explains the seemingly counterintuitive fact that doges are moving against Bitcoin, not following it, i.e. when Bitcoin rises, Dogecoin goes down in bitcoins, and vice versa, which means its price is more or less stable in dollars. As I'm inclined to think, it is mostly due to people buying doges to gamble them away, and they don't want to spend their precious bitcoins on something they are expected to lose anyway

If anyone has a different view, you're welcome to chime in

I think, when looking at cryptos in general, the only exchange rate matters is the one versus BTC.

BTC: 1 BTC=1 BTC

other shitcoins: SHT/BTC

Reasoning versus USD is meaningless.

I guess altcoins are not doing that bad neither this time. I mean it is one thing that bitcoin goes up and altcoins go down and the dominance would be going high for bitcoin, but it is another thing when bitcoin goes up better than all the other coins and the other coins go up as well but just not as much as bitcoin. I would have the second option any day of the week, this way the other people who invested into altcoins still profit from it even if not as much as the bitcoin people.

Look at ethereum for example, it recently broke over 200 dollars, I am sure people who have invested into eth or who are mining eth are not complaining about their situation, so the dominance rising for bitcoin didn't bothered them. We all prefer bitcoin going up and altcoins going up even further but this one definitely beats altcoins going down version.

I wouldn't call it altcoin season yet because a lot of them are running into serious resistance. If altcoins can get past their resistance levels and make higher highs, the Bitcoin market cap dominance will drop under 60% quick.

The only bought altcoin that I currently hold is Ether, which I bought back when Bitcoin was crashing below $4k. I will only cash out a portion if Ether breaks through 0.04BTC, but currently we're far away from reaching there.

I'm sure that when I do my best and search for BCH/BSV on some older wallets they must be there, so I'll dump these first because there isn't anything I like about them and it's free money at the end of the day.

"Alt season is night! Repent yourself and hodl Shitcoin!"
(cit. average shitcoiner)

Then I look at bitcoin dominance (flawed indicator, we know that, but just suspend disbelief for sake of simplified analysis):



Bitcoin dominance down from 69% to 64%?

WOW! this is a true altseason approaching, I might be able to dump all those shitty XLM  I got registering multiple accounts to that stupid website.



This is the relative performance of shitcoins versus BTC. Really you want to call a shitcoin alt season because and obscure coin surged 100% from 0.015 to 0.03 of a BTC? (just remember how that shitcoins used to be worth back in the days)

That is way to extreme. In a way as CMC currently measure  will crypto dominance we never see Bitcoin at 90% again. Probably 75% is its limit. And after Bitcoin reach new ATH at $20000 it will start drastically decrease.