Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN? - page 95.

dree12

legendary

Activity: 1246

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Quote from: zby on September 26, 2011, 12:10:23 AM

Quote from: BitterTea on September 25, 2011, 07:47:49 PM

Quote from: pent on September 25, 2011, 01:37:52 PM

Bitcoins will drop below 4 in near weeks. There is no economy, no any significant turnover. Almost all turnover is generated by speculations and investments. # of transactions per block in blockexplorer are smaller and smaller over time. So why should it go up? It just a bursted bubble in a current level of popularity.

Instead of inspecting mtgox graphs you better inspect internal block chains for a volume and transaction dynamic over time to predict bitcoin value.

Assertions lacking evidence!

Also, real exchange of Bitcoin IS increasing. See: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Bitcoin_Days_Destroyed

That number is guaranteed to increase - so this does not give you any information at all.

That chart depicts %, which is not guaranteed to increase. Unfortunately, that chart only goes up to June, and most of that activity I presume is mining pools, exchange deposits/withdrawls, and gambling.
Edit: I've got no idea why we use % of total BDD rather than the last say 2100 blocks. I do admit, that number is guarenteed to increase and is therefore preety pointless.

oakpacific

hero member

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Merit: 1000

Quote from: S3052 on October 02, 2011, 07:01:26 AM

Brief update.
It looks as if we are in a triangle with likely break out to the upside.

Is it correct to say the zigzag correction that was yesterday has morphed into a triangle?

S3052

legendary

Activity: 2100

Merit: 1000

Brief update.
It looks as if we are in a triangle with likely break out to the upside.

S3052

legendary

Activity: 2100

Merit: 1000

Correct.

And the strength of an analyst come through to see that the market is doing something differently and then adapt the forecast as we did thereafter on Aug 26:

"The short term rally that started at 5.74 $ came to an end yesterday with a decline below 10.5 $ and 10 $. This is a bearish sign and shows that bitcoin prices have entered a more protracted correction again . Further downside is now more likely. It will take a move above 14 $ to confirm the mid term rally continuation.

A test or even break of the key level of 5.74 $ is now quite probable."

And exactly this happened.

netrin

sr. member

Activity: 322

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FirstBits: 168Bc

Quote from: fivebells on September 29, 2011, 06:39:48 PM

I was referring to your comment August 18, here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.464673

fivebells

sr. member

Activity: 462

Merit: 250

I was referring to your comment August 18, here:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.464673

(I cited it in my earlier comment, as a hypertext link.)

S3052

legendary

Activity: 2100

Merit: 1000

Can you specify what you mean with "August prediction"

I issued 4 analysis over August, 3 of them bearish, indicating a drop into the 4-5 $ area.

http://blog.bitcoinwatch.com/2011/08/bitcoin-technical-and-bitcoin-market-analysis-august-26th-2011-by-s3052/
http://blog.bitcoinwatch.com/2011/08/bitcoin-technical-analysis-august-14th-2011-by-s3052/
http://blog.bitcoinwatch.com/2011/08/bitcoin-technical-analysis-a-review-august-7th-2011-by-s3052/
http://blog.bitcoinwatch.com/2011/08/bitcoin-technical-analysis-august-3rd-2011-by-s3052/

[color]

fivebells

sr. member

Activity: 462

Merit: 250

Quote from: grod on September 29, 2011, 03:02:33 PM

It's more of an art than a science. Human judgement and "gut feel" is far more important than rigorous automation and documentation of the process.

And that's fine, but has anyone established that this is actually a better predictor than other methods? I mean, human judgement was (maybe still is, haven't been following), the most accurate method for protein structure prediction, but that didn't stop people from testing the accuracy of those predictions in competitions with machine prediction methods...

Quote from: S3052 on September 29, 2011, 03:10:02 PM

You are right, it is the combination of numerous chart tools and indicators. (Un)fortunately it is not automated and works with only one tool. And even worse, the market follows certain "tools" for a couple of months or even years and then not any more. The key is to accept when this is the case and not automatically follow things.

Do you know what went wrong with your August prediction?

S3052

legendary

Activity: 2100

Merit: 1000

You are right, it is the combination of numerous chart tools and indicators. (Un)fortunately it is not automated and works with only one tool. And even worse, the market follows certain "tools" for a couple of months or even years and then not any more. The key is to accept when this is the case and not automatically follow things.

grod

full member

Activity: 154

Merit: 100

Quote from: fivebells on September 29, 2011, 02:58:50 PM

Then what's it good for? Are there any objective, systematic analyses of the predictive powers of these indicators that I could read?

That's one of the problems of TA. It's more of an art than a science. Human judgement and "gut feel" is far more important than rigorous automation and documentation of the process.

If you look long enough at different types of charts you'll find anything you're looking for. The key is being consistent, picking *multiple* indicators which work for you at the moment and going with your gut.

And this part blows people's minds: it's just as key to know when your approach is no longer working so you can find a different one.

grod

full member

Activity: 154

Merit: 100

Quote from: speeder on September 29, 2011, 02:53:50 PM

The signals, cannot preview for example if some crazy guy will dump 100k BTC or 1 million USD in BTC...

No, but they help you estimate whether such an event is likely. And if so, in which direction. Crazy guys follow herds same as everyone else, and TA is a way of getting a sense of which way the herd is migrating.

In other words, it won't help you predict when a kid that mined a few thousand coins in 2009 got a driver's license today and wants a car, but it should help you determine when a large portion of the current community has had enough and wants out. Also when they've run out of coins or money.

fivebells

sr. member

Activity: 462

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Then what's it good for? Are there any objective, systematic analyses of the predictive powers of these indicators that I could read?

speeder

hero member

Activity: 994

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PredX - AI-Powered Prediction Market

The signals, cannot preview for example if some crazy guy will dump 100k BTC or 1 million USD in BTC...

osmosis

sr. member

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Merit: 250

Quote from: fivebells on September 29, 2011, 12:59:02 PM

Thanks, netrin. If I understand correctly, in mid to late August there was an even stronger "bullish indication" by this reasoning, because the MAC(26,12) was above its 9-day EMA, and the price steadily dropped. It appears that S3052 did indeed read a bullish signal at that time, which must have been somewhat painful.

All the MACD framework seems to indicate is that there was a recent reversal in a short-term trend (in this case, the bounce from ~$4.8 around Sep 17.) This does not seem very convincing to me.

I haven't read the RSI wiki page, yet, but appreciate the pointer. I will look at it later.

Any one signal can always give false positives, so its important to look for multiple signals. Additionally, its important to remember that there is always enough room left for reversal of the current signals. TA is a bit like listening to a sports commentator describing a live game. Never know when there is going to be an interception and trend reversal.

speeder

hero member

Activity: 994

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PredX - AI-Powered Prediction Market

August we had a sort of correction upwards, after a large dip.

fivebells

sr. member

Activity: 462

Merit: 250

Thanks, netrin. If I understand correctly, in mid to late August there was an even stronger "bullish indication" by this reasoning, because the MAC(26,12) was above its 9-day EMA, and the price steadily dropped. It appears that S3052 did indeed read a bullish signal at that time, which must have been somewhat painful.

All the MACD framework seems to indicate is that there was a recent reversal in a short-term trend (in this case, the bounce from ~$4.8 around Sep 17.) This does not seem very convincing to me.

I haven't read the RSI wiki page, yet, but appreciate the pointer. I will look at it later.

netrin

sr. member

Activity: 322

Merit: 251

FirstBits: 168Bc

GIYF or in this case WIYF: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MACD

You can see that the green lines are above the mid-line when prices are rising and below when falling (June). Similarly with the blue line above the pink line. S3052 has shown that since mid June, the spikes down have been trending back to zero, and if this trend continues, they will cross strongly above, indicating a rally.

RSI: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Relative_Strength_Index tells a similar story.

These indicators show the momentum or acceleration of price change.

http://www.investopedia.com/university/technical/techanalysis10.asp

fivebells

sr. member

Activity: 462

Merit: 250

S3052, just repeating because my questions might have been obscured by the fact that they are at the bottom of the last page, below some images:

What do "MACD (26,122): -0.753", "EXP(9): -0.851", "Divergence: 0.098", "RSI(14): 34.72" mean? What is bullish about this divergence measurement?

S3052

legendary

Activity: 2100

Merit: 1000

Thanks for your feedback. Feedback is always a gift.

See attached the two most extreme trendlines

1) based on closing prices (pink)

2) based on intraday prices (red)

Both have not been broken clearly.

zby

legendary

Activity: 1594

Merit: 1001

Quote from: apetersson on September 29, 2011, 03:31:50 AM

don't be so harsh

drawing trendlines is an art

or do you complain to your barrista when he hands you his cafe latte with - last week the pattern was different!

Are you saying that next time that trend line will be drown even lower?

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