Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN? - page 93. (Read 540249 times)

smile. there are 5 points, though :-)

The scientific equivalent of this is the following theorem:

You can draw a straight line through any three points provided that the line is thick enough.

Q.E.D.

S3052 does a great job on technical analysis (I even follow him on twitter to keep up with all the updates) and yes, he considers other things beside the charts, such as the community thoughts here at this thread. I was just saying that every prediction must be taken with a grain of salt.

Regardless of the bitcoin price, volume in currency is an indicator of how much people are trading. Investing $1000 in June means that I can move around 33 BTC. In October it means that I can move 250 BTC. So the BTC volume should be 7 times higher now, but instead it is more or less the same. Either we have the same amount of people investing 7 times less money, or we have 7 times less people. Either way, I don't believe that we can support $30 prices.

Thanks for your feedback. Sometimes the way the line is drawn has minor variations, which I try to avoid. At the same time, the BIG PICTURE is what counts:

I have done a new chart here that uses a thicker trendline and this is quite clear. When doing this sort of analysis, the big trends are broad, and hence, too detailed views may lead to false signals.

http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/index.html
http://chart.ly/dc4tqrw

The line is not broken in the grand scheme of things. The more often a market touches, and briefly even breaks them before jumping back above, the stronger they will become.

S3052 is right on, from a common sense perspective at least. There is bound to be a reversal very soon that will change the game, simply because the worth of the whole Bitcoin economy is less and less every time it goes down and at the same time we have in fact seen a massive transaction and merchant growth, in the long-term. This sets a strong limit to the price decline, for example a price of $1 would put the maximum worth of the whole currency at $7.4 million, which I think most of us can agree is a very low number even for something as small as Bitcoin.

I do agree that a "new all-time high" won't happen simply because there is potential for that to happen. Bitcoin needs to expand to fulfill that potential. But that will happen if people keep believing in Bitcoin itself and keep working on it. Bitcoin is there, and it works. It's up to the merchants to create the services and brands to support it and make it more known, and easy to use. How big it'll grow remains to be seen. I wouldn't be so quick to call an all-time high yet, but it's certainly possible.

Regardless of how big Bitcoin can go, it's very likely that there will be a trend reversal and a significantly higher price than now. The big question is will the price make one final dip before a reversal, or will it start climbing from $4. I don't think a heavy dip is very likely because the support at $3.x is super strong, but it could go down a bit before it goes up.

Honestly I've been following the public pricing and I think S3052 is doing a good job on accurateness. He/she may or may not be using a certain style to tell the community how things will be I can tell that S3052 is trying his best to stay neutral with that analysis but at the same time trying to add a little bit of hope to it.

I agree with nmat to a point but I disagree with him where as I've also noticed that most trading around here follows social trends then they do the actual Bitcoin value and I've noticed that S3052 has been accurately following these trends as well so for nmat to say that he is strictly following Mtgox/Tradehill/campbx/bitcoin7 data is far from the truth from my personal experiences.

It just needs to be suggestive.  It fails on me - because of the inconsistencies - if the line is drawn once in one way next week in another way - it loses credibility.  The question is if I am a common case - maybe not.

More $ chasing fewer btc ==> higher btc/$ rate.  It's a simple supply & demand relationship which an honest prognostication on the exchange rate won't ignore.

The salient problem with nmat's reasoning is his belief that S has based his predictions on technical features of the Summer bubble.  Actually S is working from two earlier price-reversal time points, which he draws a line through on the graph.  He says that line represents an important price threshold, but provides no rational basis for this belief.

Technical analysis is just barely mathematically elaborate enough to be intellectually intimidating to most people, and set the chart reader up as someone with arcane skills.  But there doesn't seem to be any empirical evidence for its predictive power.

The number of bitcoins remained relatively fixed. Obviously the number of dollars was almost ten times greater when the price was ten times greater. You would therefor expect to see ten times more volume in dollar currency. But I think it is more relevant to look at the number of trades in bitcoin, rather than the number of dollars traded.

I have been following your analyses and I really enjoy them. Thank for doing it. But honestly, you need to think "outside the chart". Bitcoins are not like the regular stock/forex market. The $30 high was caused solely by news sites and people's curiosity. Using that peak to constantly claim a rally to a new all time high is short sighted. It's simply not going to happen without another major breakthrough in the bitcoin world (something like Amazon accepts bitcoin) because there isn't enough market capital to buy coins all the way up to $30.

The volume in currency clearly shows that in June we had a lot of people trading, but they are gone now:



The prices might go up, but they aren't going anywhere near $30 anytime soon.

PS: It's simple math: the number of coins is increasing rapidly and the number of new investors is decreasing slowly.

The lines are again a little bit lower.  I have also seen 2.8 as the long term trend line border - so I guess you still have lot's of space for these adjustments.

We are at a very important juncture on BTCUSD.

Here is an excerpt of the special update in the subscriber section: Prices are right where the longterm uptrend lines run. The view on the longterm chart, shows that we are likely at a buying opportunity of a "bitcoin lifetime". Very likely (80%), this trendline will at least spark a strong countertrend rally from approximately current levels. But as this trendline is important and prices are more in a consolidation than in a "bubble" state, there is a high probability that BTCUSD starts a rally to new all time highs. When looking at the very short term, we have been analysing two extreme scenarios: Either prices rally from here around 4 $. Or, BTCUSD will do one final dip below 3.79 $ before the reversal starts.

Only a strong, sustained move below the long term trendline will result into a much deeper correction. Still, we do not see this as the more likely option and remain long term bullish.

http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/index.html

It's possible to calculate this if you've kept record of your own performance. Choose a time scale (long, mid, short), consult public postings since you got into bitcoin and consistently follow the suggestions (hypothetically buy or sell 50% at the price 12 hours after the public post timestamp), trigger stop losses when necessary. Then compare your actual performance with this hypothetical history minus fees.

Worth the money he's asking? I'm debating it...

Just sent two alternate wave counts. Let me know if you have not received it.

If you didn't know what long term meant, then ask. It's a year. Mid term months/weeks. Short days/hour. Any idiot can see the price has been dropping for four months just as he can see it's way up over the year.

You have to read between the lines. It means, next round of suckers, next round of suckers, next round of suckers. Line em' up! my fav was ... "oh, btw..im in an all cash position now."
School of hard knocks.
You know what?! F this. Im done, deleting my wallet! This is crap. I'm over it! This is bollsheit. Its over. Its done.
kidding

The analysis actually seems pretty good. Its mostly the scams that keep changing the trend.

it also said long term up when it was $14, long term up when it was $11, long term up all the time

how long is long term? if it drops to $1 and then goes back up to $4 in two years, the guy will come back and say SEE? IT'S UP LONG TERM

if it never goes up he will just say it's not long term yet, wait longer
it's impossible to prove it wrong, but the only good post is when he said $26 was too high, and to sell
that's the last time when following his advice on short term was good

critical runts who ridicule cunts

Choose your scale, http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/ has been pretty damn accurate for several months.

S dropped the "o" from "counts" once, and it came out funny-sounding.