I think I've said a few times too, when I put in score randomly without even checking out recent forms or position on the table it tends to work, but when you get really close in the ranking and you don't want to mess shit then it all starts to go sideways again.
Lazio and Atalanta playing out a goalless draw is something I really just still can't understand, I've got BTTS on at least to parlays and Over 2.5 on another, meeeeh! That'd be the 3 goalless draw in 5 games from Atalanta, what a shame from a team that were known for their goalscoring prowess.
I've definitely been doing a hell lot more "random" than planned for Serie A and La Liga and it's weirdly working out for me now after 20+ matchdays. But then it's not really random if you kind of know the teams even without really following the leagues right? For example, for me, random means backing the home team more regularly than the away team if they're not a big name team (to me). Or picking a draw when the last 5 games form for both teams is very similar (and so easy to use Superbru for that).
I think it all comes down to style. If your style suits prediction, better to stick to it. If not, better go random. My style of planning is awful for these types of pools, and I know it's only halfway through the season but I'm super happy with how it's all turning out so far just putting picks on favourites and instinctive scoring. This season I'm literally taking less than 1 minute to put my entire week's picks in, and in fact most of my picks for all 3 leagues are done a week ahead, if not more.
Last season, I was doing all kinds of calculations, especially for premier league, and then calculating in upsets, and putting in scores looking at odds for Correct Score market, who's injured, who's playing etc.
Now I'm just: fck it, a favourite doesn't stop becoming a favourite even if they change their style and team. And it pays off to still make the odd mistake anyway as even when Atalanta didn't win like last night, or the game before, no one else backed them to not win anyway.
You know there's always one or two teams after mid season you should never bet on. in EPL, that's become Chelsea. I wonder if it's become Atalanta for Serie A...