Topic: [BitFunder] IceDrill.ASIC IPO (235 Thash Mining Operation powered by HashFast) - page 96. (Read 378562 times)

Yes, and from my experience with buying bitcoin stocks, I can say that it's going to be very hard selling those 7,000,000 shares because your only investors who are going to bite are long-termers.  By keeping that wall so big to raise more funds, you are keeping short-term speculators uninterested.  For there to be a healthy liquidy you need both type of investors.  I gave this same advice to hosted mining who started off with a wall much bigger than the funds they needed to get started, and they changed their agreement, however it was too late and they are not going to get funding before September as they had hoped.  

Take the wall down and put it up later at a higher price in smaller chunks.  You WILL get the funding you need before November if you do this..
The way you have it set up right now there is no chance for growth after your initial operation.

It doesn't have to be either.

There's general reasons why sometimes people have to sell securities that have nothing to do with the securities at all - emergencies happen or very profitable short-term opportunities become available as two simple examples.  The structure of this IPO adds additional reasons why it will happen in this case.

First thing you have to realise is that unless it becomes obvious that this will definitely make a large profit then there's no reason why anyone would rationally buy at .016 YET.  As there's no panic buying of the wall there's no urgency for anyone who WANTS to invest to do so right now - they can invest in a fixed-rate bond, Just-Dice, Coinlenders or whatever for a few months, keep the profits and THEN buy their shares at .016.  Or they can try to buy them cheaper in the interim.

That means there's an effective ceiling on price of .016 at present.  Which, in turn means that even if someone wants to invest in this it makes sense for them to sell now if (and only if) they can make more profit between now and the expiry date of the wall than the difference between the price they sell at and .016.

So right now there should be (and probably are) people acting entirely rationally who LIKE this investment but are still entirely correct to sell their shares now with the plan of buying back later.  And they'll be selling to the ones who want to invest in this and DON'T have other options that can make them more profit than the difference between current price and .016.

Assuming there's interest in this exceeding the volume of shares sold at .015 and lower then I'd STILL not expect the price to hit .016 until a few weeks before the cut-off date on them - but in that case I'd expect the price to gradually get back up nearer to .016 as the deadline approaches.

Information will, of course, change that.  If good news emerges then the .016 wall would start getting eaten quicker.  If bad news emerges then then it may never get reached at all.  But there's zero reason to buy from that wall right now and give up all profit for a few months AND gamble on all news being good.

In short what's happening now is people are selling who either have options to make profit short-term and/or believe the risk-weighted value of waiting for more news exceeds the difference between current price and .016.  Plus there'll be some who got cold feet plus some who sell anything they buy if they haven't had a dividend in a week.

As soon as the final batch of shares was announced to be a) large,  b) at a higher price and c) up for sale for ages it was a near certainty that it would just sit there for ages (only other option was that it would sell out fast - which seemed unlikely).  That's not a problem for the IPO - as they don't need (and likely can't even use) the funds right now anyway.  And that it's not being touched now says nothing about what will happen when the date gets nearer.

When there's no sensible reason for someone to do something (in this case buy at .016 NOW rather than later) then it's dumb to try to draw conclusions from the fact that they aren't doing it.  If the wall's still untouched a few days before the end date then it becomes a problem.

EDIT:  There's one more factor which could cause the .016 wall to start selling sooner - if the pass-through on BTC-TC gets approved (as there's a fair number of people who invest there and won't trade on Bitfunder).  At present that seems highly unlikely as the contract there hasn't been updated (It starts with "Each share represents 1/50,000,000 of the profit of DigiMex" which is no longer the case as the number of shares is no longer fixed).  But if it ever starts trading there then that could spur sales on Bitfunder as suddenly it may no longer be safe to assume you can wait until late October and still buy then at .016.

Well one example could be that they bought in with BTC purchased in USD a month ago @ .014 and now that BTC/USD has risen, they're willing to take a loss of 1-2% on selling at .013x and making 10-20% on the appreciation to fiat.

That or they don't want to wait months to see if they'll actually get the return expected - impatient investors expecting to get a quick bounce (no idea why they'd expect that as this isn't that type of investment).

Have you thought about why they might be selling for a loss? Are they 'weak' - ergh who wants to be 'weak'? Weak is bad.

Or are they.....worried?

1) Please do assure me of this point, I'm not sure you have ANY ACtM shares so please - assure me.

2) There was a substantial information release ummm....yesterday...yes that's right, YESTERDAY.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2968841

3) Just today you have accused the ACtM Board of insider dealing and demanded a news release which is likely to prejudice the NDA and the future partnership with a major ASIC manufacturer.
And a few minutes ago you lied that I had criticised every IPO:
'I'd bet money that your ranting and mockery of every other IPO out there has causes more damage to ActM's reputation than iCEBREAKER himself.'
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/activemining-the-official-active-mining-discussion-thread-252531

So you agree that icebreaker has damaged ACtMs reputation but yet you are still his biggest supporter - how come 'Mr I Have Loads of ACtM Shares'? Are you insane or lying?

Will that's excellent thanks. So I'm sure if you feel that sort of thing is par for the course you won't be too reactive to me doing on this thread what icebreaker has done on the ACtM thread. Fair's fair I'm sure you will agree.

I'm pleased you have learned to disassociate your business experiences from your emotions. This means, amongst other things, that you can be truly ruthless in business.

I will bear in mind that relevant questions should be aimed at the ID team. Thanks.

I don't think we have seen the bottom of this one.

weak hands or being smart? I just think this sounds to much like a huge mining bond than anything else, if hashfast is legit and delivers perhaps the price will go up but only time will tell,

just bought 16k + shares under IPO price. People have sooo weak hands nowadays..

I assumed this was par for the course in an open forum where anyone (and everyone) can chime in with their opinions.

I can't speak for anyone else here, but I've learnt that it's a good idea to decouple emotions from financial decisions and the research that goes along with making them. Doing otherwise, at least for me, would guarantee a descent into madness and irrational behaviour. Your words caused me no pain whatsoever.

Thank you for the sentiment. I hope that when you do your due diligence and research into our company with a level head you'll find that the share price is very reasonable for what is on offer.

Those questions and their subsequent answers are really only useful to anyone if you direct them to myself (or DT) for answering.

No, I was referring to the list of possible sources of delay as listed by IceBreaker i.e.

'BJ assembly time plus end-user shipping vs Swedish shipping/customs plus iD assembly time'

As I see it there is potential for delay at each of these stages and I was simply wondering what icebeaker thought about that and how likely he thought delay at each specific stage was.



BTW Will I have changed my sig so as to not give the impression that I represent ACtM. I am not affiliated with ACtM in any way except that I am a minor shareholder. Thanks again.

Hi Will, we are actually having a few idiots (two today - Icebreaker and Baragraphics) coming onto the ACtM Official thread repeatedly spreading false accusations, lies, and demanding the company release commercially sensitive information - then saying because ACtM don't release the info some of which is under a NDA that the company is worthless. Now I don't know why they are doing this but both of them are active on your (this) thread and one has even said he doesn't own any ACtM shares but only IceDrill.

Obviously it's a pain having these people talk down a company you have invested money in so I've come over here to see what they are up to, and simply to - in a fair way - suggest they answer the same questions about their own investment that they are demanding of ACtM.

Now you may see that as not being fair, and a pain for you, but I am only asking the same questions here that they are repeatedly, day after day, asking over on our thread. Obviously I DO NOT in any way intend to disrupt your thread, cause any damage to your company or share price. Perhaps answering the same questions about their own investments will give these two a new sense of perspective, I hope so. Thankyou.

Believe me drawinginthesun, no disrespect but I do NOT want, own, or intend to buy or sell any IceDrill shares.

When you say "their being a long chain..." do you mean the IceDrill personell being a long chain of hold ups? No, our personell will definitely not hold up anything.

EDIT: Stuartuk, if you have a question, please ask it. I understand that you're invested in Active Mining (from your sig) and hope that it's going really well for everyone involved in it. I welcome any/all of your input here.

I think someone wants cheap shares.....

Stuartuk just single handedly dropped the entire share price by 0.00002 BTC.

Shows how fragile this stock is.

Wow that sounds like a huge gamble in terms of their being a long chain with plenty of potential for hold ups - don't you agree? Please expand on potential problems.

Bribery and blackmail - yes a good choice, I mean what could go wrong with a company bribing Customs Officers?

Oh you did mention your concerns about getting all your money back! I think you will, I mean the plan is to do that but if the mining doesn't raise anything CLOSE to that per share I'm sure IceDrill will somehow scrape together a few MIll USD to pay everyone back. But my tip is get that in writing because if IceDrill only mines .000003 per share before it folds you might be a bit peeved? Maybe?

Oh this will be huge take it from me. A huge success for some. Defo. Well, certainly the private investors, they done well didn't they? Care to comment on the share sale to the private investors? Does it concern you, atall?

I'd rather not play the "process of elimination" game if that's ok with you? Apologies if my post above alluded to any single chip design/manufacturing company, it was not my intention. My intention was to highlight the patterns we've been seeing up until now.

From the initial post:
In order to grow, 75% of the profit from each shares share will be paid out to the investor, and the remaining 25% will be reinvested in additional mining capacity on a continual basis. Thus, the mine will grow substantially over time to maintain the most efficient market share.

Agreed, we won't be happy with our initial hashrate deployment, hence the built-in expansion requirement. At the moment our focus is execution of our 1st phase, and achieving the goals stated here. We do have some ideas on how to proceed from there, but nothing final and certainly nothing we can announce here (for now).