bitscalper anyone use this ? [PASSWORDS LEAKED] - page 16.

nmat

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Quote from: Clipse on January 23, 2012, 07:03:46 PM

Ok seriously are you missing the point or just ignoring it?

Remember proper arbitrage happens in realtime and most of the within a few seconds if not less than a second. You dont buy 1BTC at exchange 1 and then wait minutes or hours so that exchange 2 price is higher and then sell at exchange 2. The arbitrage price difference must be available in realtime and executed near realtime.

1 BTC allways equals 1BTC no matter what the markets does. You end up withdrawing the $ you scalped from the different exchange rates, you dont ever convert the BTC to $ since if you dont have BTC you cant scalp. This cant be made any clearer so if you still dont understand why BTC price doesnt matter and only the price difference between exchanges well I really dont know how to make it clearer Wink

Meh... whatever. I see things differently so lets just keep our different opinions. Tongue

Clipse

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Quote from: nmat on January 23, 2012, 07:01:59 PM

Quote from: Clipse on January 23, 2012, 06:57:43 PM

Again the running BTC value doesnt matter, you cant arb if you actively match your BTC networth to the exchange rate.

The only running count you care about is the swop/price diff for 1BTC from one exchange to the other. If the BTC price actually matters then allways keep 1BTC at each exchange and only trade 1BTC at a time when the price different is profitable.

It matters because you want to withdraw your earnings! You had $400 and now you have $300. You lost money.

I did arbitrage during the summer when the price dropped 90% in 3 months. Doing 10% a month in arbitrage opportunities means nothing if the BTC value keeps decreasing like that.

Ok seriously are you missing the point or just ignoring it?

Remember proper arbitrage happens in realtime and most of the within a few seconds if not less than a second. You dont buy 1BTC at exchange 1 and then wait minutes or hours so that exchange 2 price is higher and then sell at exchange 2. The arbitrage price difference must be available in realtime and executed near realtime.

The higher BTC balance you keep per exchange only means the higher the scalping value you could gain at arbitrage opportunities so if you actually intend to scalp and earn $ then also sell the BTC for $ well obviously keep the BTC per exchange low but this is a terrible way to approach scalping anyhow.

1 BTC allways equals 1BTC no matter what the markets does. You end up withdrawing the $ you scalped from the different exchange rates, you dont ever convert the BTC to $ since if you dont have BTC you cant scalp. This cant be made any clearer so if you still dont understand why BTC price doesnt matter and only the price difference between exchanges well I really dont know how to make it clearer Wink

nmat

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Quote from: Clipse on January 23, 2012, 06:57:43 PM

Again the running BTC value doesnt matter, you cant arb if you actively match your BTC networth to the exchange rate.

The only running count you care about is the swop/price diff for 1BTC from one exchange to the other. If the BTC price actually matters then allways keep 1BTC at each exchange and only trade 1BTC at a time when the price different is profitable.

It matters because you want to withdraw your earnings! You had $400 and now you have $300. You lost money.

I did arbitrage during the summer when the price dropped 90% in 3 months. Doing 10% a month in arbitrage opportunities means nothing when the BTC value keeps decreasing like that.

Clipse

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Quote from: nmat on January 23, 2012, 06:53:55 PM

Quote from: Clipse on January 23, 2012, 06:50:13 PM

Now thats the flaw in your logic, when you arb the focus is allways on taking the edge from the $ earned on arbitrage between exchanges on the same volume of BTC.

Lets assume you have (to keep it basic and minimalistic) $100 on all 3 exchanges with volume and also 10BTC on each exchange, that is 30BTC that is BTC you never intend to match at a $ rate since the only $ that matters to you is when you swop 1BTC from exchange 1 with 1BTC at exchange 2.

You never lose BTC value, you only gain $ value when done properly. Im not sure why bitscalper pays in BTC , the $ approach is much less sophisticated.

Bitcoin price is $5 and you have:
Mtgox: $100 and 20BTC
TradeHill: $100 and 20BTC
$400 total

Bitcoin price drops to $2.5. Now you have:
Mtgox: $100 and 20BTC
TradeHill: $100 and 20BTC
$300 total

Again the running BTC value doesnt matter, you cant arb if you actively match your BTC networth to the exchange rate.

The reason why the BTC used to arb shouldnt matter is simple, you have no intend to every sell it otherwise you cant arb to make $ profit.

The only running count you care about is the swop/price diff for 1BTC from one exchange to the other. If the BTC price actually matters then allways keep 1BTC at each exchange and only trade 1BTC at a time when the price different is profitable.

nmat

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Quote from: Clipse on January 23, 2012, 06:50:13 PM

Now thats the flaw in your logic, when you arb the focus is allways on taking the edge from the $ earned on arbitrage between exchanges on the same volume of BTC.

Lets assume you have (to keep it basic and minimalistic) $100 on all 3 exchanges with volume and also 10BTC on each exchange, that is 30BTC that is BTC you never intend to match at a $ rate since the only $ that matters to you is when you swop 1BTC from exchange 1 with 1BTC at exchange 2.

You never lose BTC value, you only gain $ value when done properly. Im not sure why bitscalper pays in BTC , the $ approach is much less sophisticated.

Bitcoin price is $5 and you have:
Mtgox: $100 and 20BTC
TradeHill: $100 and 20BTC
$400 total

Bitcoin price drops to $2.5. Now you have:
Mtgox: $100 and 20BTC
TradeHill: $100 and 20BTC
$300 total

Clipse

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Quote from: nmat on January 23, 2012, 06:45:43 PM

Quote from: Clipse on January 23, 2012, 06:33:18 PM

The point of arbitrage is that its a zero risk game if done properly so no you cant ruin yourself in a day.

The only way to effectively arb is to keep track of how many BTC/USD shifting you need to do, how reliable is the output from exchange volume/walls however if you keep the shifting small enough there is literally 0 risk. All that happens is buying BTC at low exchange and selling the same amount of BTC at the high exchange thus making $x on the shift and still having exact same amount of BTC afterwards however gaining $ out of the deal.

The problem is that you need to keep ~50% of your balance in bitcoins in order to do these trades. So, for example, in November the bitcoin price dropped around 50% in one day. If you were doing arbitrage without additional security measures, you would've lost 25% of your money (in fiat). I believe that the fact that bitscalper pays in bitcoins and not in USD is also part of the strategy to defend agains such drops.

Regarding 0.6% a day, yes it is acceptable. If I consider arbitrage alone I don't make as much, but bitscalper probably trades in much more markets than I do (and they probably have a better system).

Now thats the flaw in your logic, when you arb the focus is allways on taking the edge from the $ earned on arbitrage between exchanges on the same volume of BTC.

Lets assume you have (to keep it basic and minimalistic) $100 on all 3 exchanges with volume and also 10BTC on each exchange, that is 30BTC that is BTC you never intend to match at a $ rate since the only $ that matters to you is when you swop 1BTC from exchange 1 with 1BTC at exchange 2.

Arbitrage doesnt care if BTC is worth 50c tomorrow or $10 today just aslong as there is another exchange to swop atleast the same amount of BTC to get a $ edge.

You never lose BTC value, you only gain $ value when done properly. Im not sure why bitscalper pays in BTC , the $ approach is much less sophisticated.

Clipse

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Quote from: BurtW on January 23, 2012, 06:38:00 PM

I am not saying that 0.6% per day is not attractive - it is very attractive. I am asking if that a resonable return that would be expected from a system of this type - from other's experience. If it is still too high then possible ponzi scam. If it is in the ballpark then all is good with the world.

5% every day would more than like have been ponzi however at the rates being paid out its more inline with being legit. That said anything bitcoin related could end up a ponzi from what we have experienced in 2011 but so far bitscalper seems fairly legit

nmat

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Quote from: Clipse on January 23, 2012, 06:33:18 PM

The point of arbitrage is that its a zero risk game if done properly so no you cant ruin yourself in a day.

The only way to effectively arb is to keep track of how many BTC/USD shifting you need to do, how reliable is the output from exchange volume/walls however if you keep the shifting small enough there is literally 0 risk. All that happens is buying BTC at low exchange and selling the same amount of BTC at the high exchange thus making $x on the shift and still having exact same amount of BTC afterwards however gaining $ out of the deal.

The problem is that you need to keep ~50% of your balance in bitcoins in order to do these trades. So, for example, in November the bitcoin price dropped around 50% in one day. If you were doing arbitrage without additional security measures, you would've lost 25% of your money (in fiat). I believe that the fact that bitscalper pays in bitcoins and not in USD is also part of the strategy to defend agains such drops.

Regarding 0.6% a day, yes it is acceptable. If I consider arbitrage alone I don't make as much, but bitscalper probably trades in much more markets than I do (and they probably have a better system).

BurtW

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I am not saying that 0.6% per day is not attractive - it is very attractive. I am asking if that a resonable return that would be expected from a system of this type - from other's experience. If it is still too high then possible ponzi scam. If it is in the ballpark then all is good with the world.

piotr_n

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aka tonikt

so i think that's why he used the term "tune it"
if you want to win more in such game - you might need to tune it with a small risk.
especially if there are other players on the market

Clipse

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Quote from: nmat on January 23, 2012, 06:01:04 PM

Quote from: piotr_n on January 23, 2012, 05:19:50 PM

Quote from: Clipse on January 23, 2012, 05:16:45 PM

If its so profitable and you are able to do it yourself then it would be silly not to design it for yourself.

Something that is profitable is never a waste of time.

Exactly.
And if I knew answers to that questions, I'd probably never even have mentioned it on a forum.

Is it profitable enough? - this is the question

It really depends on how much you tune it, but I'll tell you something: even if you implement everything correctly, if you only arbitrage you will not earn much. A single day can ruin your efforts for the whole month (i.e. bitcoin price can drop 50% all of a sudden).

People have been doing arbitrage for several months now (myself included) so this is not really new. And obviously bitscalper can't make 5% everyday. The bitcoin market works more like this: in a couple of days each month you have tons of arbitrage opportunities. During the rest of the time, the market usually sits quiet.

The point of arbitrage is that its a zero risk game if done properly so no you cant ruin yourself in a day.

The only way to effectively arb is to keep track of how many BTC/USD shifting you need to do, how reliable is the output from exchange volume/walls however if you keep the shifting small enough there is literally 0 risk. All that happens is buying BTC at low exchange and selling the same amount of BTC at the high exchange thus making $x on the shift and still having exact same amount of BTC afterwards however gaining $ out of the deal.

piotr_n

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aka tonikt

Quote from: BurtW on January 23, 2012, 06:26:53 PM

Now the question: Is that resonable for an arbitrage system?

Another question is: if you put in twice more money - is it going to stay at 0.6%, or is it going to down twice as well?
I would go for the latter in this choice

Clipse

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Quote from: BurtW on January 23, 2012, 06:26:53 PM

Their exact claim is: "When the right opportunities windows are open, Bitscalper is able to generate as much as 5% daily with very small and easily accountable risks"

So, they are not claiming to make 5% per day, in fact the above claim basically promises that they will make less than that.

During the time I have had my account they have show daily gains less than 5% - exactly what is expected from the above claim. It looks like over the last week daily gains averaged about 0.6%, right?

Now the question: Is that resonable for an arbitrage system?

I would say anything more than 0% is free money as long as its secure (so far bitscalper been acting quite active so most of the scam fear is gone)

Now the daily earnings avg would have been higher if we didnt have downtime for most of the weekend, we missed some good arb chances unfortunately.

BurtW

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All paid signature campaigns should be banned.

Their exact claim is: "When the right opportunities windows are open, Bitscalper is able to generate as much as 5% daily with very small and easily accountable risks"

So, they are not claiming to make 5% per day, in fact the above claim basically promises that they will make less than that.

During the time I have had my account they have show daily gains less than 5% - exactly what is expected from the above claim. It looks like over the last week daily gains averaged about 0.6%, right?

Now the question: Is that resonable for an arbitrage system?

nmat

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Quote from: piotr_n on January 23, 2012, 05:19:50 PM

Quote from: Clipse on January 23, 2012, 05:16:45 PM

If its so profitable and you are able to do it yourself then it would be silly not to design it for yourself.

Something that is profitable is never a waste of time.

Exactly.
And if I knew answers to that questions, I'd probably never even have mentioned it on a forum.

Is it profitable enough? - this is the question

It really depends on how much you tune it, but I'll tell you something: even if you implement everything correctly, if you only arbitrage you will not earn much. A single day can ruin your efforts for the whole month (i.e. bitcoin price can drop 50% all of a sudden).

People have been doing arbitrage for several months now (myself included) so this is not really new. And obviously bitscalper can't make 5% everyday. The bitcoin market works more like this: in a couple of days each month you have tons of arbitrage opportunities. During the rest of the time, the market usually sits quiet.

piotr_n

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aka tonikt

Quote from: Clipse on January 23, 2012, 05:16:45 PM

If its so profitable and you are able to do it yourself then it would be silly not to design it for yourself.

Something that is profitable is never a waste of time.

Exactly.
And if I knew answers to that questions, I'd probably never even have mentioned it on a forum.

Is it profitable enough? - this is the question

Clipse

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Activity: 504

Merit: 502

Quote from: piotr_n on January 23, 2012, 04:12:28 PM

Quote from: Clipse on January 23, 2012, 04:10:44 PM

Quote from: piotr_n on January 23, 2012, 02:58:25 PM

but really, I see it all the time: you can buy 1 BTC in USD market, then sell it in EUR market - and have some profit, even after paying for the EUR->USD currency exchange (which is cheap on forex and can be automated).
and of course it works both ways: sometimes you can buy 1BTC in EUR market and sell in USD with a profit...
plus, there are of course other currencies...
i see huge money there - at least until someone will invent a bot to consume it
if I knew that nobody is inventing this bot ATM, I'd probably start writing it myslef...

Sure go for it, you just need exponentially more capital and BTC on hand with every exchange dealing with such vast currency values.

the initial capital is not a problem.
I could as well start with my own 100 eur, 100 usd an 100 btc.
the software is the problem - I down want to waste my time on writing something that someone is going to invent before me anyway

If its so profitable and you are able to do it yourself then it would be silly not to design it for yourself.

Something that is profitable is never a waste of time.

piotr_n

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Activity: 2053

Merit: 1356

aka tonikt

Quote from: Clipse on January 23, 2012, 04:10:44 PM

Quote from: piotr_n on January 23, 2012, 02:58:25 PM

but really, I see it all the time: you can buy 1 BTC in USD market, then sell it in EUR market - and have some profit, even after paying for the EUR->USD currency exchange (which is cheap on forex and can be automated).
and of course it works both ways: sometimes you can buy 1BTC in EUR market and sell in USD with a profit...
plus, there are of course other currencies...
i see huge money there - at least until someone will invent a bot to consume it
if I knew that nobody is inventing this bot ATM, I'd probably start writing it myslef...

Sure go for it, you just need exponentially more capital and BTC on hand with every exchange dealing with such vast currency values.

the initial capital is not a problem.
I could as well start with my own 100 eur, 100 usd an 100 btc.
the software is the problem - I down want to waste my time on writing something that someone is going to invent before me anyway

Clipse

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Activity: 504

Merit: 502

Quote from: piotr_n on January 23, 2012, 02:58:25 PM

but really, I see it all the time: you can buy 1 BTC in USD market, then sell it in EUR market - and have some profit, even after paying for the EUR->USD currency exchange (which is cheap on forex and can be automated).
and of course it works both ways: sometimes you can buy 1BTC in EUR market and sell in USD with a profit...
plus, there are of course other currencies...
i see huge money there - at least until someone will invent a bot to consume it
if I knew that nobody is inventing this bot ATM, I'd probably start writing it myslef...

Sure go for it, you just need exponentially more capital and BTC on hand with every exchange dealing with such vast currency values.

piotr_n

legendary

Activity: 2053

Merit: 1356

aka tonikt

Quote from: vbscarred on January 23, 2012, 03:49:30 PM

Quote from: xepera on January 23, 2012, 03:30:18 PM

Okay so i testen this with about 5 BTC and it worked well plus i got my Money back. So folks what do you think?! Shall i give it another try but this time with 380 BTC? Wink

Go for it. Be sure to report back.

i don't think there is so much money to get from this inter-exchange differences.
adding huge deposits wont help us to get more - it can only increase your part from the total profit.
and here comes the question: why would anyone want as many deposits as possible, if the market is actually limited and he obviously isn't able to utilize an unlimited amount in this way?

Topic: bitscalper anyone use this ? [PASSWORDS LEAKED] - page 16. (Read 40999 times)