Topic: Black Arrow R9-12 threads, DZ Miners Co-op. Plz move ?s and discussion here. - page 15. (Read 25175 times)

here you go  each share cost  .63 btc they have paid .23 btc so we are at .40 btc loss.   each share


they offer 287 that is .312 btc   so   I get that you do not want to take a btc loss

 .400
-.312


.088  btc loss  

they will pay us divs on the 15th so  that div will be at least .05 a share    
 so .088 - .05 = .038 btc loss each share maybe less once you figure the div for the 15th of  dec.  also maybe less once you add in the short fall.
as we are short about .042 btc a share.  so in btc you would be a push. or close to a push


but if you hold your share  8gh


not earn .4 btc    until late june  of 2014 and the diff needs to be under 16%

 so as for a roi in btc you just will most likely never ever see that.

A roi in fiat yes btc no. just is not going to happen.

BTW a great roi in fiat truly great return.  Trust me   This is an amazing return.

Now if you want to argue anything about more fiat  we should get 287 plus the dividends  up to the 15th and the btc shortfall of  .0425-.045 each share fine I am down with that.

But btc roi is not here won't happen   you can not get blood from a stone.

 to get roi in btc we need to keep the network at a 14% difficulty adjustment for 6 months in a row,  this is pretty much impossible.

I havent risk with price drop. And I talk for ROI for .40 BTC, the other .21 are in my wallet

why  4 months.   the 10 -17 btc makes sense for the shortfall   but the 4 months of hash  no ,


here is why the 4 months is not needed   the 287 is worth more then 2.4 months of  hash at a diff of 900 mill.    we will have hashed from nov 1 to dec 15  that is 1.5 months  so you get 3.9 months worth of hash in 1.5 months of holding the gear.  basically to not sell is a really crazy move. with just about 0 math sense .


your risk of btc price drop is vanished  poof gone.  and if you really think btc will go up hold some btc with the money.

4 months at 3.333TH, and 10 BTC compensation for low speed.

 To further the argument as to no btc profit diff will jump to 900 mill in a day.

I get that btc profit is a nice simple idea.   It is not going to happen here.  We had 2 nice adjustments now we get a bad one. 25-30% .



As to btc price jump  that may happen as to btc price drop well it did go under 600 usd on the 6th. It is now 900.

do the math at 900 mill btc roi is ? days from now.  a share should be 8.3 ghs at 900 mill diff it earns .133 btc in a month

287 is about .3btc  so at todays price you are getting more then 2 months of btc earned if diff freezes at 900 mill.

 


Besides the sale at 287 .  the short fall of btc must be dealt with it is 17 or 18 btc short and it is separate from the sale  it is about .0425-.0450 a

share.

If I take the 287 buyout  I still want the shortfall addressed. or is the 287 including the shortfall.

 which means the buyout is  247 and the shortfall is 40.   BTW I am fine with this but I am sure other want the 287 plus the missing coin.

You know Dz coop can announce the vote 202 of 400 shares says sell it .  And they could pay you 287 cash per share like the rest of us.  We are in this on a trust basis .  We trust and hope the correct thing is  going to be done. If you want a btc profit trust me it will not happen.  The only profit is going to be fiat. These machines will not earn a btc profit.


If you want  to argue btc will go to 3k then take the 287 a share and convert it to btc and hold it.
   

Absolutely not selling in fiat, only in BTC with profit.

With the 100$ increase in the offer per share, my opinion of 'absolutely not selling' to  'probably not selling'.

When will bobsag3 return or be able to comment on possibility of increasing the hashrate?
If it is decided to sell the hardware, will the USD be converted to XBT on the 14th?

I'm also waiting to hear the results of the trip. I'd love to know if it's a realistic expectation to get the hash rate to nominal.

E2A: at the moment selling = profit in fiat or loss in BTC. Therefore I'm still inclined to keep mining, even with the risk of taking a small BTC loss. I want BTC, not fiat.

This offer was given to bobsag3, and he forwarded to me. You are free to hold off your vote.

It is a bit hard to decide without the news from his trip. I would like to know what he thinks generally as well. He may want us to sell because it is casing an enormous amount of his personal time which I can sympathize with.

I would like to hope that Bob has a fix it in his pocket after his return visit with BA whether it is a software or hardware issue. I'm sure he will provide a good balance to R9-12 recovery as well as getting the new hardware up and running.

As you know, every second that goes by is lost of BTC if R9-12 is not producing 2.3745 BTC every 24 hours at the current difficulty of 707,408,283.

Yes the sell will be added to what was mined.

Are we still getting the first two weeks of Dec. payout on the 15th and the share price if we decide to sell?

I got the email I voted I have 11 shares.

287 a share is better then 180  a share ..

So to those that resisted  the earlier offer you gain  around 100 usd  a share.

It would be nice for people to vote early since 201 votes either way makes the decision done.

 I can see waiting to see next diff  adj which would be  on wed morning the 11 or late tues.

here are two estimates for diff rise

***********************************************************************************
707,408,283  now


908,255,612 (+28.39%)  in 264 blocks   http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

*************************************************************************************
Difficulty  707408283   now

Estimated   888112465 in 263 blks   (+25.55% )           http://bitcoincharts.com/

***************************************************************************************

On the  6th -7th  of dec I made  6 purchases on coinbase :

 .40 btc  for $283.98            = 709.95 usd     10:23 pm
 .40 btc  for $247.53            =  618.82 usd    11:12 pm
 .20 btc  for $130.34            = 651.70 usd     11:31 pm
 .20 btc  for $120.54            = 602.70 usd     11:44 pm
 .30 btc  for $171.04            = 570.13 usd     11:50 pm  
 .29 btc  for $184.68            = 636.82 usd     12:10 am


this is a shitload of volatile movement for 2 hours time.

I am not done.

 I sold on the 7th of dec 

0.38 btc  for  307.53     =  809.28 usd   4:10 am
1.0 btc   for   809.68    =   809.68  usd  4:13 am    so coins moved from a low of 570 to a high of 809 in 6 hours.

If I  get 287 a share  x 11 shares = 3157 usd   for me

 and 400 shares = 114,800  for the whole sale.  

   I ask for  notice   before you send me coins.  So I can cash them very quickly if I want to do so.

There is no way to see the vote count, BTC will be paid but it will be calculated at time of sale. If you don't want to sell and get 287.50 usd worth of BTC at the time of the sale vote no.

I liked to be paid in BTC.
that's what I paid. It is there a way to see the vote count?

For the people who want to wait to vote this is possible, voting ends on Dec. 14th.

bobsag3 comes back on Tuesday I believe.

I took a look at r17 - is there an estimated date of hashing? I couldn't find that anywhere.

Edit: after digging a little, I was able to find that BA is supposed to ship them in February. Presumably hashing would happen almost immediately after shipment given the history of this batch (r9-12).

I'd also like to understand the alternative plans if we don't accept the offer. bobsag3 has indicated that he has some other things to try - such as replacing the Pi with something a little more robust. I'm curious what the time frame is on it though. He's in China - but who is holding down the fort while he is gone? How long will he be gone? Are there any possibilities for replacement of the bad boards since he is presumably visiting BlackArrow while there and is likely discussing possibilities (among other things). I'm not in this for the USD either (as nicksmith indicated earlier) but if we are going to just keep chugging along at a significantly reduced hashrate with no possibility of it going back to the nominal rate, that sort of changes things a bit for me. A clear outline of possibilities at this point, DZ / Thomas, would be helpful for making the determination on whether to sell or not.