Is Avalon batch #1 fully shipped? If I get it right, batch #2 will be delayed anyway. I think it is risky to bet on batch #3. Maybe the best strategy would be to keep bitcoins and wait for news. If BFL ships their goods, it will be several times cheaper. If BTC price goes up -- then even more cheaper. If BTC crashes -- then buy from Avalon, as they denominate in bitcoins.
No, I don't believe all the batch 1 units are shipped. The batch 2 shipping delay sounded fairly brief, but time will tell. Yeah it is risky to bet on batch 3 because receipt is a long way out, but I have to weigh that risk against expected network growth rate scenarios. Certainly I wouldn't bet heavily on a batch 3 order, but Avalon is to date the only company to ship any ASIC mining gear to any end users. BFL is...well BFL and ASICMiner's roll out has been slower than anticipated which improves batch 3 order profitability.
Whether we ultimately place a batch 3 order or no we will have significant reserves available for if/when BFL ever ships or a new player brings gear to market. Eventually the gap between placing an order for ASIC mining hardware and receiving it will narrow considerably, and when that time comes the network hashrate will grow very rapidly.
