Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 255. (Read 136170 times)

The second part that you kept that you will use to invest later, what's the logic behind it? Since you are not doing monthly or weekly DCA purchase, why didn't you invest it with the first investment, because I the best time to invest was yesterday. If you are doing a DCA on weekly or monthly basis it would have been a different case. The one you kept to invest later, what if procastination sets it and your attention is diverted and the money is used for something else. Or are you waiting for more dip before you can use the second part to invest? Waiting is dangerous, invest when the money is available and don't wait for a later date. You already had your emergency funds secured and that's good enough, the one that's left for investment, should go into investment immediately without delay. If we wait for tomorrow we might regret, wishing we entered all in when we got our first buy. 

The example I gave in my post above is clear for you to know that a delay in someone's weekly or monthly salary payment is a good emergency that will make that person use his emergency fund to cover up until the person receives his salary. For instance, you used to receive your monthly payment at the end of each month, but something happened at the place of your work, and you got paid on the 10th of the new month. You will have no choice but to use your emergency fund to sort out your bills because you never expected that your salary payment would be delayed.

I agree with you on the percentage range the student should be alloting to his bitcoin accumulation, given the fact that his parents are still sorting his bills. Academic work comes with a lot of financial responsibilities, you should be able to strike a balance between what you have to spend on your day to day routine as a student and the amount you keep for your investment. Bitcoin investment is not sprint but a marathon race, which allows you time to accumulate little by little over time.

Not necessarily increasing it, but proper planning goes along way. Aside investing in Bitcoin it is financial wise to have emergency funds and also Discretionary funds. Havin  Discretionary funds serves better in terms of any useful thing to be done whereas your emergency funds is kept for emergencies mainly not some minor cases in household. In essence in order not to get exhausted while accumulating we need have both emergency and discretionary funds, JJG have explained this better.

Approach, invest in a Valuable asset like Bitcoin with a plan.

No good investor that will see emergency fund as something to play with in as much as having the intention to hold long term is the aim of that investor, because is not a matter of using it and later replace back reason been that emergency is unforseen circumstances that can't never give you sign before it take place, for investor to use it to buy during the dip is a sign that the investor may likely not hold for long term.btc is volatile and is not a market of haste you need gain on the market some high level of patience and tolerance must be in place, if a n investor uses emergency fund to buy the dip what of if there is a further dip than expected buy the investor when emergency is hitting he/her very hard it will end up selling more than the emergency fund invested because some emergency need early stage solution. The best is to avoid tempering anything emergency fund instead look for means of increasing one emergency fund if the investor have the intention of Long term holding.

Any investor who is using his emergency fund to accumulate bitcoin when there's a dip is going against the rule of keeping an emergency fund before investing in bitcoin. That investor will never hold his bitcoin for the long term because, when an emergency hits him, he will not think twice about selling his bitcoin, even though he is at a loss to sort out his life. You know, before you start your day, you have to brush your teeth, and you wake up one morning and notice that your toothpaste is finished. That one is not an emergency because we know we are meant to make provisions for it. An emergency is when you have a delay in your weekly or monthly salary payment at the place of your work. You can use the money you kept for emergencies to live with until you receive your weekly or monthly salary payment. You should also replace the money when you receive your salary to make your emergency fund healthy enough to help you out for a long time.

As a student that is not working allocating 20 percent from the money het gets from his parents might just be too much, he needed to allocate a more conservative percentage of  about 5 to 10 percent in to Bitcoin and use the rest for his other needs so that he can be accumulating Bitcoin without stress or seeing it as a burden or struggling as a student that is no working but depends on his parents. However it is better to comfortablely go wimpy without struggling thou it will take a longer period of time to arrive at a good size of Bitcoin which is better than being a no coiner.

being too technical as regards the kind of investor you are is not really necessary the way I look at it because at the end of the day, even if you're a beginner or you  fall into any of those category of people you tend to outline as the types of investors, it doesn't change the narrative that what's expected of anyone that's investing into Bitcoin is that they buy Bitcoin and HODL it while adding more Bitcoin during several consecutive times which is what we've come to know as DCA. Whatever category of investor you fall under doesn't really make any difference and to be even honest, some of those things You're talking about are just mere ideas that tend to describe a particular set of people that are already in involved in Bitcoin maybe for the short term benefit and doesn't in any way mean that everyone  have to make attempt to fall into any of the category You've outlined here.

Every real Bitcoin investor should think of himself as an HODLer that's building his bitcoin for the long term purpose and any sort of idea like categorizing yourself as an hunter, FOMOer or even trader doesn't fit into the real niche of Bitcoin investments but might possibly become a setback that might hinder the holder from for being able to continue to DCA for a long.

What you said is actually a good thing, but you need to understand that in Bitcoin investment, it's very important to have a source of income that keeps you going, because if it's from the money for upkeep from your parents that you divided and use part of it to invest, it will definitely be unsustainable on the longer run, because I believe that the emergency fund you are talking about wouldn't be enough to weather the storm when in serious financial needs, and that may compel you to temper with your investment, so it's best you have a source of income.

Another thing why I said so is that, like 20% of your income will be enough to invest in Bitcoin, and the remaining 80% can take care of your emergency funds and other expenses, but this investment plan you are using will definitely not be sustainable on the longer run.

The problem with some people is they don't know the meaning or how emergency funds used. They sometimes think about that this is extra funds to use for their investment that's why it leaves something bad impression and leave some wrong statement regarding unto this topic. If they could able to spend some time to know how proper budgeting on everything they do from their earnings for sure everything will be separated well. They could able to separate their budget for food,travel,bills,emergency funds and for investment.
If there's some funds left came from somewhere else especially if we have multiple source of income then we can use to add it up on our investment and that's how we can actually maximize our investment without worrying on anything else out there.

Emergency funds should not meant to be spent on anything not needed especially on risky situation since it could save our asses if there's something wrong will happen to us in future. And much better for people to forget about that funds and only take it when you really need that money to survive.

surely people approach on btc investment differs, expecially in technical aspect. that is why we have different categories of investors and there approaches. the list below shows 11 types of investor.
1. The Beginner
2. The Bitcoin Maximalist
3. The HODLer
4. The Trader
5. The FOMOer
6. The Hunter
7. The Traditional Investor
8. The Ecosystem Expert
9. The Crypto Native
10. The Early Adopter
11. The Whale
The 11 types of cryptocurrency investors

you are right , newbies investor can never be compeard to the crypto native or whales in regards to your explanation of people approach on Bitcoin investment differs expecially technical aspects. if you read through the link I Sheard , the crypto Native suits your explanation even though it didn't appear as thought,  but for now i see it as the perfect Match when classifying investor and there level of understanding and long expirenced in the ecosystem. sometimes I see you @JJG as one of them, i.e the crypto native. if you read down to the crypto native   you will come across a statement like this

      Traits of a crypto native:
1. Lived through multiple market cycles.
2. Used to the high volatility.
3. Understand the technological and financial aspects of crypto.
another one I would have also considered is the ecosystem expert. but I think you will be in good position to explain more better or trow more light to this link I shared.

those are really 9 factor that influences people's decition on how to invest in bitcoin I would have loved to add more but I guess you have summarised all. it may be listed as 9 factor but deep diving into it it is actually more than 30 factors but summarised into 9.

I guess by then you didn't have discretionary income or was not yet knowledgeable about deliscretionary/ reserved fund or haven't been making attempts of keeping emergency or reserved fund. otherwise you wouldn't have allowed that golden opportunity of buying cheaper slip you off.  and I guess these where the predicament and scenerio that have captivated and change you. by making you putting emergency and reserved fund at first before anything, because if you had it then Bitcoin was at $200s you would have accumulated alot by now. but surely I believe no room for regrets because there is no time that is too late to invest in bitcoin but the level of your accumulation and consistency matters and haven discretionary fund to keep the train moving.

it might be true but I doubt that " the lower the price the more confident that we might that such price is likely not to be reached again" because Bitcoin is volatile and anything volitille can not be predicted uprightly. despite bitcoin is the best investment, it can even fall to 0 even as we don't think of that. let's say around the ending part of 2021 Bitcoin made it way up to around $46,886.08 per btc. and fall way below $20k around 2022. surely most people never thought of btc to fall below $20k in late 2022 after hitting $46,886.08 around December 2021. but it fell to $16k in the late December 2022 in 1 year interval. meaning that no level passed can be assumed to be likely not to be reached again.

Since you are investing in bitcoin with the DCA strategy, there is no need to divide your money into three parts. You can divide your money into two equal parts and use one part to accumulate bitcoin with the DCA strategy and keep the second part as your emergency funds so that you will have enough money readily available for your emergencies. And since you have not started making your own money and depend on what your parents sent to invest in bitcoin, do not  be concerned about buying the dip before you sell your bitcoin investment to solve an urgent emergency because you are not sure if your parents will be sending you enough money that will allow saving money for you bitcoin investment every time. Stick with the DCA strategy to accumulate bitcoin; it will allow you to have enough time to make another saving from the money your parents will send you so that you can also make provisions for your emergency fund. As a student, the DCA strategy will help you control your emotions and allow you to focus 100% on your studies because you will be buying bitcoin as the price is increasing and decreasing. You will never think that you bought bitcoin at the wrong time or when the price is too high.

I divide my fund into three parts, first part I will invest, second part I will save for later investment, and third part emergency fund. Emergency fund is what I keep in case I invest and I don't have to sell the investment if I face danger. Because I don't earn normally, I am currently studying, so what I have saved for investment is the money taken from my parents for tiffin and some special purpose. I keep funds strictly for my most urgent needs and to meet the basic needs of people.

Emergency funds are not a part of your cashflow.  You seem to be talking about some kind of a float.  Emergency funds are something that you build up and then you likely never will have to touch.. ever..  they are usually something .like 3-6 months of your expenses, so if you lose your job or you get hit by a bus, but you are still living, you might have some expenses but unable to work for 3-6 months, but if you are managing your money well, you may well have other funds such as reserves and a float that you would use prior to even dipping into your emergency funds.  

Let me use the example that I used from the other thread:

If you have an income that is around $1.6k to $3.8k per month, and most of the time you receive around $2,400, and you have expenses that are usually $1,800 to $2,200 per month, and most of the time the expenses are $2,000, then that is around $400 in disposable income, but surely it varies, so minimally you should likely be holding around $6,600 in cash to cover 3 months of your expenses.

yes you might have other money that is extra cash float or that you are holding in reserves for other purposes, maybe for buying on the dip or just for using when your income might be low.  You could spend 20-30 years or more never touching your emergency fund because if you have fluctuations in your cashflow, you would tap into your reserves and your float first, so hopefully you never get into a situation that you even need to touch your emergency fund.. because if you do, then shit is really hitting the fan at that point... and your situation has become more dire.. .. so in some sense if you are using your float and your reserves you can continue to buy BTC every week since buying BTC may well be a priority for anyone who is trying to build their stash... but whether they are able to build their BTC $50 per week or $100 per week or some other amount is going to vary on other ways that they are managing their cash, since it is good to be aggressive, but it is not good to put yourself into a situation that you don't have any money and you have to dip into your emergency fund.

another thing is that people who don't invest, might not even be in the practice of maintaining an emergency fund. ..and that might be part of the reason that they are poor and don't invest...because they are not managing their money well.. and so if someone is brand new to bitcoin and they do not have an emergency fund, they may well have to invest smaller amounts into BTC wheil they are building their emergency fund, and once the emergency fund gets up to 6 months then they can be more aggressive in their BTC investing.  

Another mistake that poor people make is to use their investment (BTC in this case) as their emergency fund.. and yeah, they are going to have fun staying poor, because you should not have to dip into your BTC ever, except upon a time that you have already chosen based on criteria that you had already set.. whether that is 1-2 cycles down the road or reaching some level or whatever that criteria might be.

I think this has been discussed some months back. Money that is kept for an emergency is not to invest in bitcoin and if anyone wants to invest in Bitcoin then extra funds Shou be made available if only the person is really ready to invest. There are some banking apps that one can use to lock funds by weekly, monthly and yearly. The person can choose the plan he wants and I normally select two plans to lock my funds in weekly and monthly because I don't know when the dip would come and if it comes, and fall under the weekly plan then I would use it to buy the dip and I will wait for the monthly plan again and once it unlocked I would use the money to buy the dip again. So with that you don't have to spend your emergency funds again.

Now if you buy the dip with the emergency money and something happens within the week and you don't have extra money to solve the emergency need, you have to make a sale of the bitcoin investment you initiated in the week to solve the emergency and if the dip is below the purchase price of bitcoin then you are at the losing side of the investment because you did plan well for the investment. Always keep the emergency funds down the emergency purpose and not to buy the dip.

Correct since by means you already use your emergency funds for investment then its shows like you mismanage already your finances and we should avoid that since this could messed up our financial plans on our daily or monthly budget. That's why its really better to use our extra funds so that everything on our side will really work according to our set plans towards our bitcoin investment since I really believe that we will not succeed on our investment made especially if we are getting bothered on everything and have doubts because we already use almost all of our funds to invest on something we think valuable to place our money.

What mistake I've done before is I already sold my mined bitcoin also including my holdings since I think that is the top way back 2015 and 2017, but we don't really know what will happen on future and I just think about that profit still a profit after all that's why right now I'd try to correct things and make sure to maximize my bitcoin investment and try to accumulate more. Then sell some profits whenever I need some funds for other extracurricular activities.

Technically you should not be using emergency funds to buy dips.. but you can use reserve funds.  Yeah of course people call these things different things, but the idea of emergency funds is to have money to live and to pay for your expense if an actual emergency takes place or if you lose your income for some reason, you have a little bit of breathing space.

Reserve funds would be extra money, so you should never dip into your emergency funds for anything other than needing to live because you ran out of other money.

In my particular case in 2014 I had been buying all year long and the price dropped from $1k all the way down to the $300s, and then in January 2015, there was an extra drop and then the BTC price pretty much stayed in the mid $200s until about October 2015, but I was already running out of money in January and I had some other business related complications that happened in early 2015 in which some of my cashflow was jeopardized for several months - and so I was not able to buy bitcoin for a few months - even though BTC was relatively cheap then, but whenever I was able to get some extra money come in, then I would use half of it to buy bitcoin at whatever the price was and then the other half I had to put into my account for the expenses of the business that I had at that time.

So by the middle of 2015 I started to have a bit or normalization return to my cashflow, but then at the same time the BTC price started to slowly go back up at the end of 2015 - even though the BTC price got caught in an area of about $400-ish for nearly 6 months between November 2015 until May 2016... but my own cashflow was beginning to normalize again in 2016, and so it is a bit ironic how sometimes the cashflow problems can also happen at the same time that the BTC price is at its lowest, which was the situation for a large part of 2015.

There can be long periods in which you might not be sure if you should spend your extra cash to buy more bitcoin or to just sit it out, especially if you might feel that you have enough bitcoin, but there still can be some temptation to buy more when the prices are quite a bit below your average costs.. so it can be a bit of a dilemma...and seem to take quite a bit of time to play out, like you suggested.


There are frequently uncertainties in bitcoin; however, the kinds of uncertainties are changing with the passage of time. and so even there are uncertainties today with various attacks on self-custody..


Sure bitcoin's investment thesis is not getting any weaker, even if some of the upside potential is not as much, but similar things were being said in 2017 when BTC went from $1k to $19,666, and a remember a lot of folks pumping shitcoins and saying that bitcoin did not have any more upside potential, so people should be buying more shitcoins in order to get upside potential, but the fact of the matter is that bitcoin actually ended up pumping around 78x in those 2 years from late 2015 to late 2017, so I see no reason for anyone to feel that they need to be more greedy than that, and surely the price corrected back down into the $3ks, but surely spent a lot of time in 2018-2020 between around $6k and $10k... before stepping up to higher plateaus, including our current level of supposed uncertainties.

Surely many of us likely realize that bitcoin has an ability to get around 1,000x gold's market cap, even though currently it is about 1/10th of gold's market cap... and so in that regard, bitcoin still has a lot of upside potential, even though it could take 50 to 200 years or more to reach its upside potential, and so many of the current newbie entrants are investing in mch shorter timelines that likely want to know if bitcoin is a good investment in the next 5 to 10 to 20 to 30 years.  So our actual personal investment timelines would be considering wanting to profit within our own life times rather than needing to wait for longer term macro aspects to play out.. and in that regard, there are still some folks who are attempting to front run bitcoin and get their own bitcoin prior to the masses of the population coming into bitcoin, which truly should be an advantage for any of the normies who already know about bitcoin and who are investing into it, as compared to folks who might not really now about it and are not actually taking action to invest into it, even if they do know some things about it.

So yeah.. no one knows, and you have to figure out your own allocation level that is comfortable for your level of balancing out your life circumstances.

You're right most time when the price drop , one may not have enough of money to Purchase more quantities during the dip . That's why most time I usually set some emergency funds for purchasing the dip . Despite all the tough time during yah accumulation journe
y, at the end it all worth it 


That's true we can't tell the future, but we can definitely accumulate some nice quantities as we hodl . Back then , like years back no could ever believe that Bitcoin going to reach this stage . At that time alot of people doubted it and some where even waiting to crash.  Despite not having more adoption then Bitcoin kept increasing in value . But still there's no guarantees that's going to keep going up and all that . But now Bitcoin has gain more adoption, and believe is going to gain even more as time goes on.

Of course, over the years, there have been various spikes of the BTC spot price below the 200-WMA that were short-lived, yet the period of June 2022 to October 2023 had several times in which the BTC price was quite a bit below the 200-WMA, yet the 200-WMA did continue to move up during that period at an annual rate of about 20%.  You can look at the specific differences between the BTC spot price and the 200-WMA on any particular date at this website.


I am just providing my own base case scenario, so of course, I would not suggest that my base case scenario is anywhere close to guaranteed, but I am thinking that the base case scenario of the BTC spot price staying above the 200-WMA for the next 18 months is the most likely out of any of the possible scenarios based on facts currently known... ... and sure of course price trends can change suddenly and maybe even for little to no reason, and also there can be irrational spikes and black swan events that end up invalidating the base case scenario that I am currently anticipating.

My fuck you status chart also lists the historical 200-WMA's in 6 month increments, and I am anticipating to update that chart in early June, so currently, the 200-WMA is out performing my anticipated 16% (32% annualized) performance by 5% (10% annualized), is it appears that we are going to experience close to a 21% (42% annualized) increase in the 200-WMA by May 31st.....   You can also see that in that fuck you status chart, I attempt to project out the increase in the 200-WMA until 2074 - and surely I am projecting out a diminishing rate of increase, yet with anything related to the future, there can be factors that contribute towards the results playing out differently from the projection... including ongoing concerns that many of us might have in the direction of the various ongoing attacks related to bitcoin self-custody.. .which from my perspective is likely to create a lot of scoff law and underground operations - which would not be so bullish in regards to bitcoin's short-to-medium term price.

Thanks for pointing out that only once so far we have seen Bitcoin spot price going down below 200-WMA. In September 2015, BTC price and 200-WMA came close of each other but still spot price remain ahead.
Of course we can speculate about what lies ahead as nobody is sure about price of Bitcoin. Right now there is so much gap between Bitcoin spot price and 200-WMA that you can safely predict that the BTC price will not go below 20% above the 200-WMA for the next 18 months or so