Let's say for example, there are two guys of very similar economic status and maybe in their early 30s, and maybe they earn around $40k per year and they are able to save and/or invest around $4k (10%) to $10k (25%) per year - depending on how aggressive they are or how much they had been building up their investment portfolios.. so if each of them had been investing and/saving for 10 years, there could be quite a bit of variance in both the size of their investment portfolio and also what is contained in their investment portfolio, and after 10 years investing,
Guy1- Earlier bitcoin investor with 10% investment - might have around $40k invested - but he discovered bitcoin 7 years ago.. so he has around $22k invested into traditional investments like stocks ($8k in his first 2 years and then $14k in his last 7 years).. and around $18k invested into bitcoin at $50 per week that resulted in about 2 BTC. If we assume around a 50% increase in the value of his traditional investment, his total investment portfolio is worth about $161k ($21k stocks + $140k BTC)
Guy2- Later Bitcoin investor with 25% invested - might have $100k invested but only invested into traditional investments of stocks, and just discovered BTC... so the total value of his investment portfolio might be around $150k.. so this guy surely could catch up to the earlier guy by starting to invest aggressively into bitcoin at around $200 per week (or even lump sump moving some of his earlier investment into BTC), yet it does not seem as practical to lump sum invest with all of it, so he has to find some kind of a balance and then start to pursue bitcoin with $200 per week and he will likely end up passing up the guy who is ONLY investing 10% of his income.. and perhaps only 5% into bitcoin.
On the other hand, if there were a third guy (guy3) with the same demographics as the other two and a 15% per year investment of his salary which would be $6k per year and a total of $60k invested over 10 years - but who had taken both a more aggressive bitcoin stance and a more aggressive overall investment stance than the 10% guy but not as aggressive as the 25% guy, yet who had also discovered bitcoin around 7 years ago and who had been investing into bitcoin for the last 7 years at $100 per week, and who continues to invest at $100 per week.. so his total portfolio has $23,500 invested into stocks and then $36,500 invested into bitcoin with 4 BTC accumulated So his total portfolio would be $315k ($35k stocks and $280k BTC)
The second guy who is investing 25% per year for the past 10 years is the most aggressive of the three investors, yet his total portfolio has performed the worst over the past 10 years, and since in this scenario, he had just discovered bitcoin, he surely could catch up and pass the first guy in a fairly short period of time, yet if those two guys were to maintain their same pace, it could take him 15-20 years to catch up to the third guy since the third guys in not overly aggressive, but he is maintaining a pretty good pace of $100 per week, and he might never catch up to the third guy unless he increases his income and/or cuts his expensive, but he might not have as much room to work with since he is already aggressively investing 25% of his income at $200 per week-ish, so it is not always easy to either increase your income or decrease your expenses in order to be able to invest more, so in some sense, the second guy just has to continue to invest at his own pace and there may be some points in which he ends up catching up to the third guy. but surely no guarantees and probably no reason to really overly stress out about. Amongst all three it seems that the second person has a far more better investment stance than the first and slightly better than the third and this is because he was a little fairly aggressive than the first person and continued to input 25% to his weekly DCA buying
(And its clear from your explanation that all of them had equal financial capability and probably also had figured out their cashflow very well, meaning that they all had equal ability to be aggressive as the second person but for one reason or the other did not, maybe cause they are also feeding other asset alongside bitcoin),
There can be a lot of reasons that each person chooses or does not choose to be aggressive or whimpy with the amount that he invests, and within those three examples, I was trying to describe them as similarly in their incomes and also similarly in their age.. . ... so even though I described 1 as having 10% investments and 3 as having 15% investments, I was trying to describe number 2 as a potentially more relatable character who may well purposefully be ready, willing and able to be more aggressive in his investment as compared to the other two, and so to suggest that there are circumstances in which the more aggressive and/or organized person may well also be able to get quite a bit ahead of folks who got into bitcoin earlier than him - yet at the same time to suggest, that even if you start to do everything right and/or as correct as you are able to do them, it still might not be very easy or possible to catch up to similarly-situated people who got into bitcoin earlier than you... and maybe we should not overly stress ourselves about these kinds of matters, especially if we well might realize that it is likely better to be mostly competing with making ourselves better versions of ourselves rather than getting too worked up about what others are doing.... even though surely some of us are likely just competitive by nature and we either might not be able to help ourselves or we might have our own psychological issues that might not be easy to correct..and maybe we consider some of our drives to be features and not bugs in terms of our own characters.
Just to attempt to make clear (and to emphasize), I tried to give the examples in terms of already showing their investment allocations to anything that they are investing into, so any amount that was not contained in the examples of 10%, 25% and 15% was presumptively for consumptive and/or expense purposes rather than investing/saving.. and there is also another kind of presumption that each of them have their emergency fund, reserves and float in place.. at least to sufficiently responsible levels. So then both examples 1 and 3 discovered BTC 7 years ago and invested into BTC in a style that largely reflected their already chosen level of investment/savings aggressiveness.. 10% and 15% respectively, and so there is also a presumption that when the more aggressive investor (guy 2) only just finds out about BTC, that he is going to mostly be aggressive towards bitcoin and so he is a guy who is relatable towards finding out about bitcoin and then plugging it into his already aggressive investment approach and/or personality... so yeah, guy2 is meant to be a relatable kind of character in terms of how someone who finds out about bitcoin (and actually recognizes the asymmetric bet angle of bitcoin... including appreciating some aspects of it sound money fundamentals) might also become somewhat passionate about investing into bitcoin or choose to take an aggressive approach towards investing into bitcoin, rather than diddly-daddling around in terms of figuring out when to get started and not being sure and blah blah blah.
I know that clearly the time he started has put him at quite a disadvantage compared to how well his other fellows investment are doing and how long they have been into it, and from your explanation he had already invested 100k in traditional investments which should already be bringing in some dividends by now that he could use to front load his investment at some point,
Well I am suggesting him to have had built his investment and having had invested $10k per year for 10 years and then receiving a somewhat standard return on that which would be around 50%, so after 10 years, his investment would be worth around $150k because some of his earlier invested amounts would have grown more and some of his later invested amounts would not have had as much time to grow.. so yeah, his total investment portfolio is right around $150k at the time that he learns about BTC... but it is still worth less than Guy1 and Guy3.. . .and when he decides to get into bitcoin, he may well not want to pull out and reallocate what he has in his overall investment into bitcoin, but instead to divert what he had been investing into traditional assets into bitcoin in order to at least aim towards reaching his bitcoin investment target.... So in some sense, I may well be inferring what a reasonably similarly situated guy might want to do...
I am not necessarily going to presume that his prior investment had matching funds (like a 401k might have), even though there could be certain kinds of things that had been going on with his prior investments that might contribute to his not necessarily wanting to discontinue to invest into the other investments, so he could be faced with a bit of a dilemma in regards to how aggressive he might be able to be in regards to his investing into bitcoin.. some employers might have matching amounts that go up to 5% of the salary.. or perhaps there would be tax deferral benefits, and I would suggest that there would be motivations to invest up to the amount of the employer's match, but not necessarily choose to invest up to the maximum tax deferral, even though surely some folks are going to get lured into tax deferral investments that currently,
in the USA (for example) allows investing up to $23k per year into tax deferred products.. and so a lot of people will get distracted into taxed-deferred investing options (which is not bitcoin investing directly), which is another reason that the bitcoin spot ETFs in the USA can be so compelling for people who are able to contribute into those kinds of investments or if their Employer offers an investing program that includes the bitcoin spot ETFs as one of the available options... which may or may not be better than buying bitcoin directly, and if someone with ONLY $40k income is investing 25% of his income, he is still not even coming close to the federal maximum limitation of $23k per year.
I personally would not necessarily conclude or presume that guy2 has any readiness, willingness or ability to front load into bitcoin.. not based on the facts given and/or the fact that he has already built an investment portfolio or $150k.. Now if the facts were different, he might have some extra funds for front loading, but it surely is not presumed in the facts that I had given... especially since I am trying to describe and characterize guy 2 as a relatively conservative guy who may well be aggressive, but that does not mean that he is a gambler.. merely because he is already being aggressive and has already historically been aggressive in his investment with having had achieved investing $100k over 10 years.. and just on the face, guy2 invested way more than either guy1 or guy3 who invested $40k and $60k respectively over the last 10 years, and the ONLY reason that guy2's portfolio is not as good as the portfolios of guy1 or guy3 is because guy2 had been investing in traditional investments like index funds and ONLY just found out about BTC.
but this would only be achieved if he realises at some point that bitcoin is a more better asset than the rest and decides to have more value in it then liquidating some asset is possible,
I am not suggesting that it is a good idea to liquidate assets. Smart people do not tend to do that.
just like Micheal saylor that sold most of his MSTR shares just to buy more bitcoin,
You do not seem to understand Saylor. Saylor is not liquidating assets. Don't get mislead by dumbass mainstream media and bitcoin naysayer spins.
Saylor has been investing aggressively in bitcoin since late 2020 and Saylor is a bit of a psycho.. and he probably is not even a good model for normies to even attempt to follow..
Sure he is a good model in terms of his being both a bitcoin advocate, his being a very smart guy and also his using a variety of financial instruments to leverage several aspects of his company in order to buy more bitcoin which likely causes both BTC prices to go up and also his stock to go up so that he can engage in further leveraging of his company's stock.
He is playing a sophisticated game that is smart as fuck and normies cannot either play that game, and they do not even have those levels of resources..
So he has been aggressive as fuck with bitcoin from the beginning, and maybe his most reasonable buys were his first or second bitcoin buys (in around August 2020) where he merely took around 70% of the company's free cash reserves and put that into bitcoin, and there were also some of his buys around those earlier stages that were just buying bitcoin on a quarterly basis with whatever extra revenue that the company brought in.. . but he got more and more psycho in terms of both leverage and using debt instruments.. and surely those are smart as fuck moves, but they are not even close to the kinds of plays that normies should be attempting unless they have the kinds of cashflows and other assets that largely could service the various financial instruments and/or leverage plays.
One of the latest plays from Saylor that has been getting a lot of attention in recent times has been that he has been selling MSTR shares, and those are not shares that he already had, but instead those are shares that are getting issued to him from options that were set to expire from 2014.. and so he pretty much announced that he was going to be selling all of those options (which yeah they are shares) in the coming several months.. or at least since the beginning of 2024 and maybe it goes through mid 2024.. I am not sure by when he has to exercise all of the outstanding options.. .. so Saylor is not even diluting his current ownership of shares in the company.. but instead selling new shares that are getting issued to him and he is selling them as soon as they are issued to him. to buy personal bitcoin and that is not even MSTR bitcoin that he is buying with that, and he already had nearly 18k personal bitcoin that he had disclosed in around August 2020.. so he is adding to his personal BTC stash.. maybe another 10k or more BTC through various ongoing issuance of new shares that he sells to buy BTC.
So don't be presuming any additional facts regarding what guy2 should be doing as a normie in terms of turning him into some kind of a gambler, risk taker and/or even someone who is moving around his investment, because smart normal (generally risk-averse) people do not engage in those kinds of behaviors, and the mere fact that guy2 is an aggressive investor who invests 25% of his income does not mean that he is going to fuck around with moving his already invested assets around merely because he is wanting to refocus his future investments into bitcoin.. and yeah, through guy2, I did not describe any guy that would have had been in any kind of real and/or meaningful position to front load into bitcoin, even though surely anyone is free to be more aggressive than guy2, but you seem to be changing the scenario if you presume that guy2 should be moving investments around in order to front load into bitcoin...
By the way, we could describe a scenario in which each of the three guys were to receive an unexpected $12k job bonus or maybe some kind of windfall from the sales of a house, or an inheritance or something like that, so then if these guys end up having some unexpected extra cash (such as $12k), then they could make choices to use that cash in ways to front load into bitcoin or to stick to some variation of their earlier personalities that was already described.. so I would suggest that Guy1 might ONLY take around 33% of his lump sum and invest it into bitcoin, and maybe guy3 would invest 66% and maybe guy3 might invest 85% or more into bitcoin.. and my assumptions would be based on my already attempts to describe them in terms of their levels of aggressiveness.. but I did not describe (or mean to suggest) any of them as being gamblers or excessive risk takers. .
IMO if the second guy wants to catch up at some point he must actually have to take a different approach than just the normal consistency, he has to also adopt other buying the dip strategies and maybe more investment into bitcoin with lump sum,
You are seeming to be fighting with the hypothetical. Do you really believe that it is reasonable or feasible to be suggesting that normal people who are already pretty damned aggressive (investing/saving 25% of your income is already pretty damned aggressive) that these guys should be even more aggressive than they are already being. That hardly makes sense..
Of course, there are guys who work on their skills and their prospects to increase their income or to cut their expenses, and yeah we could have those kinds of behaviors that are going on with guy2 that would end up both distinguishing him from guy1 and guy3, but also such behaviors turn him into a different person than I was attempting to describe in the hypothetical.. so in some sense if you are giving him all these extra attributes, you are creating a new character, which surely is fine, since we can be whoever we want, but if we are attempting to make some kind of a comparison to similarly situated individuals, we should be attempting to describe their situations in similar ways and not creating way too many variables that then screw up the comparisons.
but yeah it has to be done in a way that he won't be messing up himself too much and maybe spread his aggression over the years so that his other asset can still be generating extra income for him to invest in bitcoin.
Ok... at least you seem to be recognizing some of the balancing that has to go on, and sure any of us can be attempting to improve our conditions and even go beyond what is expected regarding some of the limitations that we might currently have or be expected to have, but even if we might want to learn some new skills to improve our income, or to get a promotion or to enter into some more lucrative kinds of employment (or business), it still sometimes can take time to actually experience the result of the increased income that might give us more discretionary income to buy bitcoin.
The third person is also having a good portfolio and that is because he was fairly aggressive to invest in bitcoin and maybe at some point reduced his allocations to other asset.
The fact of the matter is that anyone in their early 20s who had been investing/saving 10% to 15% of his income into anything is still a pretty damned unique kind of a person, since so many people do not save or invest, and especially they do not necessarily start in their early 20s... so a guy in his early 30s who had already been investing for 10years is already somewhat unusual, but surely such a person is not beyond the aspirations that could be available to almost anyone who is able to start to get employment that allows him to generate some disposable/discretionary income. Frequently it can be difficult for normies in their early 20s to even get gainful employment and surely sometimes there may be needs to learn job skills or to improve education that might not result in any kind of meaningful income and sometimes even the programs to gain job/employment skills may well end up costing money and/or time consuming without pay.. but it still might be the smarter way to go, even if income might suck for guys in their early 20s.
My lesson from this is simple, get started early, now is early for me that started 2 months ago to invest and if I maintain my consistency with a little aggression like third cause I'm not well able now to be like the second untill I have an income raise then I'll be far better than someone who is going to start investing later in the future.
There surely are balances that need to be struck, and sometimes it can be quite difficult to even invest more than 10% of your income, so each of us has to figure out how much we are able to do, that might also involve tradeoffs that we make in terms of gaining job skills and/or experiences that might contribute to our abilities to earn more later down the road...so yeah, it seems that you overall understood these comparative matters, even though you seemed to be fighting with the hypothetical in several areas, too.
We are having technical problems with the coingecko API. They want to sell their paid plan...
I am working on it, I will come back here with more information once I fix it!
How much coingecko is asking for there paid plan? We can contribute since we using and getting benefit from this tool.
Good luck bitmover. Looking forward for the fix. It's a good tool and fun to play with.
I agree with you MusaPk. .sometimes it might be worth it to get some kind of a reliable service, especially since the tool that bitmover made has ended up being quite powerful for those who have figured out some uses for it.. and it might not even be very available in other places on the web.... at least not so far.. even though I am pretty sure that bitmover and I are tending towards promoting and advocating open-sourcedness.
So yeah there might be some utility in seeking out free services, yet at the same time, there might be some preferences to just bite the bullet.. and subscribe to something reliable.. but yeah, I don't claim to be any kind of an expert and even some of the paid services might have their own trickiness and/or their questionable value-add aspects.
Why do you feel some kind of a need to try to be fair and balanced in terms of talking about buying and selling, when we are not talking about selling in this thread.. ..
The emphasis is in this thread is to figure out and to compare and contrast ways to accumulate BTC.. and selling is not part of the more basic BTC accumulating strategies... so fuck selling in terms of describing it as a basic strategy - absent if you have already reached your accumulation goals and have already overly accumulated BTC and have actually gotten past your buying and accumulation stage of your BTC journey, which is the topic and emphasis of this thread.
Fair enough.
We have seen 3 ways of gathering Bitcoins so far in this thread DCA, Lump Sum and buy on the dip. Moreover there are hypo's also available that can give you fair idea about where you are standing in term of Bitcoin accumulation.
There is also the concept of front-loading that could fit within a kind of style for those three as well, and there is also aggressive versus whimpy which surely fall upon a sliding scale in which we might not all agree regarding which is which.
Yeah, but if you are new to bitcoin, then anytime is good to buy. .and so it might take a whole cycle before a BTC accumulator might start to get into extra strategizing around something like the 200WMA.. yet sure, sometimes, we might come to bitcoin and actually already see that BTC prices are at, near or below the 200-WMA and we might be able to recognize some extra motivation to become more aggressive in our BTC accumulation strategy than what we otherwise would have had been.
It is blessing for anyone who is in accumulation phase and find out that Bitcoin price is close to 200-WMA. This point is discussed and there is consent that first goal is to accumlate Bitcoins to get in recommended hypo's.
Sure... you seem to be referring to the hypos that are listed in
post 2 of my investment ideas thread, and even those hypos might not describe all of the possibilities, even though they were initially outlined to show how the passage of time might cause difficulties for later entrants to bitcoin to be able to catch up to earlier entrants .. and yeah sometimes we can compare our present self to some variation of what we could have had been, yet going forward, we still end up having to try to tailorize what we are going to do towards are own individual variables.. which also would hopefully include some changing dynamics that would attempt to account for how many BTC we might have already been able to accumulate, and if we might be considering if we might be getting close to reaching our BTC accumulation goals (which likely is valuable to attempt to measure value in terms of the 200-WMA, even though we might also start to consider some maintenance strategies that will relate to how far BTC spot prices are away from the 200-WMA and in which direction, which you seemed to have had already acknowledged).
Yeah.. sorry about that. Bitmover is working on it, and hoping to get it resolved soon... perhaps within the coming days..
Bitmover provided a status update in
this post from yesterday.
Edit: Upon further reading of the posts of the thread, I see that bitmover already responded to address this matter..
Seems like coingecko need some bucks for there plan.
Yeah.. too bad about the delay... . and I have decent confidence that bitmover is going to figure out some reasonable path forward... I have gotten into using the tool almost daily, too.. especially if I am responding to posts in which some of various topics could come up related to valuation of holdings and/or even considering where BTC prices are now as compared to where they had been historically.
Edit: O..k.. I see that bitmover responded to these messages and the tool is back online. .
GREAT!!!!. [edited out]
Knowing all these you have said and going by them all, we could see that bitcoin present us with a financial opportunity in which we couldn't have it kind over years in fiat, but for only those who recognizes how they could partake of these advantages will adopt bitcoin, invest and hodl, because its one of the means to financial liberty, those who are early investors could tell and we can as well see from the history on what it has laid down on every investors in it, we just have to locate in the aspect we are more interested with and come in with this decentralized digital currency in other for us to see the change desired in our financial economy, in bitcoin network, knowledge first before the money we want to have in it could comes in.
One of the main things on why Bitcoin or simply
crypto space did make out such noise is that it do really gives out that kind of opportunity or chances on which you couldnt really be able to see in fiat
Fuck shitcoins. We are talking about bitcoin in this thread... so don't be trying to equate shitcoins to bitcoin because that is either dumb, ambiguous, misleading and/or malicious.
on which i do highly totally agree on what you have said. This is why this market did get so much attention due into this kind of opportunity but of course this isnt something that you could see in other markets
on which it would be something that you could really be that able to tell the difference when it comes to volatility in overall on which this is something that you cant really be able to make yourself
that want to missed out these opportunities and chances.
I am not really sure what you mean here.. just referring to opportunities in "crypto" or do you have any ideas that might somehow relate to bitcoin.
Speaking about Buy the dip and hold then this would really be just that good into those people who are really that deciding on making some holding for long term and not into those
traders who are really that tending to have a dealing in a short term period.
Sure.. Yes... I mostly agree with this point as long as you are talking about bitcoin and not mixing in the idea of shitcoins, which you already did such ambiguous mixing above, which could make it a bit unclear about what you mean..
