Some of those pro-lump sum arguments presume too much about people having lump sums that are available and able to be invested at strategic times, ...........
Got the point and of course when I used that tool (calculator to calculate DCA) I select the frequency first to week and investment to $10 only and I was on lose according to that tool when I set the start date of 2 months ago. Well, the point is the frequency of investing in BTC by doing DCA do provide us the benefit that if we do not have enough funds to invest all at once.
Means, let's say if the investment become $5k by doing DCA and if we have enough funds at the start then we might have preferred to do Lump Sum. But as I do not have that much money at the start so I should prefer to enter the market with less too. I totally got the point here too. And also, I think one might not like DCA while other could.
Well I went back to that link that you originally provided
which is this one:
https://dcacryptocalculator.com/bitcoin ****By the way, To get quick examples of how DCA might play out over several years, I had been using https://dcabtc.com/ and it allows comparisons of bitcoin to gold and equities... but it ONLY allows selecting 9 years at a time (can pick the start date in order to go back further than 9 years and so accumulation period would therefore select the end date but cannot do less than 6 months or even to custom select dates on both ends), so I might start to use your website a bit more, especially if I am wanting to select a time period that is more than 9 years or if there might something that dcabtc.com is not allowing me to do.I wanted to try to figure it out in regards to when the lump sum investments would have had been made, and surely if you assume too much about when the lump sum investments would have been made, then you might not be reflecting reality both in terms of when cash might be available to anyone and then strategically when the person might choose to deploy the cash that he does end up having available.
Part of the reason that I like to provide some kind of a hypothetical that would involve a newbie to bitcoin, we try to deal with the facts in which that newbie is just coming into bitcoin, and whatever his situation is at the time is what it is, and sure, he might be able to go through his finances and figure out exactly how much he is able to invest into bitcoin, or he might have to go through his finances and figure it out.. which might be a bit of a moving target based upon how his conviction (or lack thereof) might end up changing with the passage of time.
So I am not sure if we can use you as an example Dictator69 because your timeline is so damned short.. I mean you ONLY have a few months registered on the forum.. and so maybe we should make up some other hypothetical that has a longer timeline.... even though that has its own problems in terms of already knowing what the price ended up doing.
O.k. Fuck it. Let's do a tiny bit of a compromise scenario that will hopefully allow me to attempt to make the point regarding times in which lump sum amounts might come available. So let's just randomly pick the last year, and suggest that our hypothetical bitcoiner has been into bitcoin for 1 year.
Let's say that he begun investing in bitcoin last August or perhaps September 1st, to make it a nice round number (date). He started investing in such a way that he had been studying BTC for several weeks maybe even several months, but at some point near the middle of August, he decided that he had to spend some time figuring out his finances so that he would know how much that he could invest into bitcoin, and maybe he even created a one year plan. Surely whatever he figured out in August is not going to be the end game, because when he started investing into BTC, part of his decision involved that he would continue to study it while he was investing into it, but the very first thing that he did was to figure out his own situation so that he could get started as soon as possible... setting up accounts or establishing some ways to source his coins (and maybe even looking into other ways, but at least has a place to start to buy regularly).
Let's say that this guy is in his mid to late 20s, so he had already been working for several years and he had some savings.. Not a lot, but he had saved up around $6k that he would like to put all of it into bitcoin (over the next year-ish), he has an income that is around $18k per year, so he has already saved right around 1/3 of his annual income.. which maybe we can imply that he is able to extract around 10% to 15% of his income to make it investable, and he already has somewhat of an emergency fund in place but he knows that he has to add more to it.. because it is only about 1-2 months of his income and he figures he should have more than that in his emergency fund.. all great so far... so if he has between 10% ($1,800/yr or $150/mo $34.62/wk) and 15% ($2,700 yr or $225/mo, or $51.92/wk) then he likely has a cash flow expectation and he has a lump sum that he can choose how to allocate.
He might also already know that about two times per year, he has extra money that comes to him.. perhaps around $1,000 each time (maybe in December and in June), and if he is very strict with his finances, he could inject all of that extra money $1k each time into BTC.
So now I gave enough of the parameters of the hypothetical so there are various ways that we could plug all of them in.
With the initial $6k that he already has, he could choose to lump sum $2k right away and then plug $2k into DCA ($166/mo or $38.46/week) and/or and another $2k into buying on dips (has to figure out the increments and or the spread for that.. maybe $100 for 20 orders every $500 will get him down to a dip of $10k, and of course, he could spread it out more and then just add value to the buying on dip amounts from time to time as money comes in.. but he can project out his whole year for the buying on dips allocation based on what he has figured out for his budget of how much he can put into it )...
When the $1k lump sums come in, he could divide those into three also.. maybe each time he would consider them as 6 months so he has $333.33 lump sum $333.33 ($55 per month or $12.82 per week).
So he could employ these and budget them in advance and then if the numbers end up changing (such as his bonus are slightly different) or some other things change, then he can make adjustments along the way, but he could start right away with amounts that account for each of these categories, and the amount in his budget weekly ends up getting divided into DCA and a buying on dips reserve. and he had to figure out how much to allocate to each.. but he has all the numbers figure out which would be a weekly amount of about $85.90 ($34.62 + $38.46+$12.82) for the 10% scenario, and $103.20 ($51.92 + $38.46+$12.82) for the 15% scenario. He could do 50/50 for the DCA versus buying on dip, or he could do some other amount that he might consider to be more preferable. I would probably suggest 50/50 to get used to it and get a feel for it, and then adjust later accordance with how it is working.
Ok. when I started to type this, I was thinking that it was going to be easy, but I can see how there might be some difficulties to figure out the numbers because there are several calculations, and many times we might end up getting ballpark calculations of these numbers, but if we overly budget how much we put into BTC (and surely if we get distracted into shitcoins) then we might not have enough money to cover everything and we may well end up screwing up our budget because we failed to adequately plan for emergency expenses and we were attempting to be too aggressive with the amounts that we were putting into BTC.
[edited out]
Ok I got that, and I did not get into accumulation yet as I shared my situation before with you on this same thread. Well, but if I compare the mindset I had back when I was new here with the mindset I have now, I am more confident about BTC thanks to this thread and specifically to you. (not buttering as members started to criticize in humorous way in WO).
Well, don't be blaming me either when you end up losing all of your money.
And I will start to accumulate BTC soon and I will share the stats with you. But to clarify, I got your point here and from maintenance, did you mean rebalancing?
I don't really believe in that rebalancing mumbo jumbo, but of course, there are going to be times in which you might have to figure out the extent to which you have investments in other things besides bitcoin and cash.
Sure you could start with bitcoin and cash, but if you get to 1, 2, 3, 5x your income, you might start to consider whether you might be overexposed to ONLY bitcoin, and that is your own judgement.
When I came into BTC, I already had a pretty decently well diversified portfolio that included at least property, stocks and bonds, and I did not have too many commodities, and I figured that my getting into bitcoin was going to serve some kind of variation of that part (I thought of bitcoin as a kind of gold at the time I got in and/or a substitute for gold, so I never did buy any gold or gold exposure).
So in some sense all of my investments, before I got into bitcoin were already enough to sustain me if BTC went to zero. so each person has to decide for himself/herself the extent to which s/he needs to own other things.
When I first started investing I did not diversify, so it can sometimes take 10 years or more before you are getting to a level in which you might feel that you need to diversify. Actually
my last charts in this post shows how I have just tended to allow BTC to ride and I did not reallocate out of bitcoin... so as of mid 2022, according to that chart, I was 63% bitcoin.. so it shows going from 0% bitcoin to higher amounts and a lot of that is mostly just changes in the prices of the assets, and bitcoin has grown better than my other investments which have largely had very modest growths and I did not really change those other investments very much.
Like first you did aggressive accumulation and then you started to maintain your portfolio is that what you mean by maintenance.
Well the aggressiveness is to first try to establish a position in bitcoin, so for the first 6 months I gave myself a budget and tried to comply with the budget, and the after the first 6 months, I extended another 6 months, so by the end of the second six months, I had pretty much spent both of those budgets and then at that point I tried to reassess where I was, and that would have been around 10% of my quasi-liquid investment portfolio was in bitcoin, so I figured by that time I had met my target - even though when I started in late 2013, I was not aiming to get to 10%, but by the end of 2014, I figured out that I reached a point in which I thought that I largely had enough BTC, which was the 10% idea but it did not stop me from continuing to accumulate. even though I think that by late 2014 and even all the way to late 2016 I was in a kind of fuzzy transition between accumulation and maintenance.. which I largely consider myself to have had been in maintenance since - even though there is still some ambiguity because I still accumulate, but it is not really much of a overall mindset of mine and I tend to think of myself in various forms of maintenance since late 2014 being weaker maintenance and then by late 2016 a stronger kind of maintenance... I suppose that they are each categories of maintenance but some differing kinds of ways to deal with it in terms of how I was engaging in the maintenance.. which also has to do with living life.. and figuring out where to get money from.. and to largely let the bitcoin continue to mostly ride.
Another thing is that many normal people (normies) might not be able to go from BTC accumulation to maintenance as quickly unless they might already be starting with an investment portfolio, and I had already largely had been building my investment portfolio for more than 20 years prior to getting into bitcoin, so it was likely easier to reach accumulation targets based on those kinds of considerations.. and it is my sense that many normies still might need to take nearly 20 years to build their BTC holdings,
Well, if those normies are taught by a person who have the 20 years of experience then those normies also hold the 20 years of experience. Well, technically that's not possible and I know that but metaphorically a normie who taught or got lessoned from a person having 20 years of experience at least say that I have that much experience but still I am really impressed that you are into investment even before BTC and I think that's why you must came to know about BTC too.
I came to BTC because I was already looking for something to supplement the stuff that I already had, and one of the things was that I had a 401k and I wanted to try to invest into something that within about 10 or 15 years might be able to be of equal size as the 401k that I already had..and at the same time a kind of hedge against the dollar a kind of gold.. and so that brought me to bitcoin and instead of taking 10-15 years to match my 401k, it took only a few years to do that.. probably by mid-2017-ish
I mean you are talking with many members on different topics and writing that long replies to everyone,
There might be some needs for me to read back through some of my most recent posts to fix some ambiguities.. but I don't tend to edit anything beyond a few hours out or maybe if someone merits a post and then I see the post and as I am reading through it, I see some things that are needing to be clarified... usually trying not to change anything I said but sometimes I find that what I wrote is not very clear when I read back through it.