Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 476. (Read 108124 times)

Obviously I will try my best without interfering with many other basic needs in my daily life. Investment will also be of no use if we do not care about a healthy quality of life even though in reality the property is a usufructuary right for the owner as long as he lives and after that it belongs to the heirs (children, wife, or anyone who has the right).

Emergency funds are of course my priority apart from having to meet my living needs and investments. I may have to use an emergency fund whenever I need it and as much as possible I avoid selling investment assets. I think I can manage that cash flow well so far because my monthly expenses are not that big even though the current inflation is really bad.

It's not too bad to think about how I should manage the cash inflows and outflows each month since I currently have a steady income in RL. Honestly it will be a little easier now than in the past because so far my investment is still untouched.


I'm not used to doing entries every week, but every 2 times a month more probably or every time I receive my monthly salary. So far I don't complain about why and why I have to change the lump sum or dip investment pattern, as long as I believe in buying it, I feel it is safe to buy it. DCA is definitely good, but I combinn it with lump sum too.

Yes, you are probably right and I totally understand what you are describing. Greed should be avoided even though we know bitcoin in the long run is the best. Our investment in bitcoin will not be 0 if it is a long term investment (unless we make a fatal mistake) and that is why bitcoin has become a safe investment asset even for beginners.

By the way, I had to cut a few paragraphs from your post because I can't respond to all of them. But it's good to get more knowledge in investment strategy implementation.

Yep.. managing cashflow including possibly increasing it and reducing expenses are both reasonable ways to be able to feel comfortable that whatever money is being injected into bitcoin investments is not going to be needed for living expenses, including maintaining some kind of an emergency reserve amount.

I am not opposed to the idea of loans when there is a determination to front load an additional investment into BTC, but at the same time, there is a need to be able to understand how much the loan costs and to be able to service that loan from proceeds outside of the investment into BTC, so whether the BTC price goes up or it goes down, there needs to be abilities to service the loan completely and to be able to completely pay off such loan by the time the end of the term comes.

Not everyone is going to make the same conclusion about whether a loan might be justifiable in terms of being able to possibly front load an investment such as BTC, so there is a bit of a gambling going on when using loan proceeds in that kind of a way.  One of the great things about bitcoin is that historically it has been such an asymmetric bet to the upside, which largely means that there is not a need to employ a lot of capital in order to have the potential to be able to profit stupendously. 

The evidence seems to support that it is quite likely that bitcoin is going to continue to be an ongoing great bet to the upside.  Accordingly loans and/or leverage are not necessarily needed in order to have potential to profit in decently good ways, and sometimes the use of loans and/or leverage can cause profitable situation to become less profitable or even to end up losing money on an otherwise profitable investment.

What makes many people reluctant in doing these is because of their economy and financial circumstances, the income coming in will not be enough in paying all bills needed to settle, needs arises before supplication and there is no room createe to settle all other budgets as planned, how could one bebabke to save up for an investment when the income is not good enough in meeting up all need and taking a loan for an investment wouldn't be advisible to take, in this circumstances, all that is needed is to double source of income and cut down cost and expenses so as to save up, nothing good comes easy.


Good advice to tryout, if something really work out for others then one can try same as well with the principles used as well as the approach, i know as well that going on a long time investment of 2 to 5 years will create a better tendencies to realising something tangible out of it all, the time and endurance works a long way in securing the asset's profitability with an investment on bitcoin provided that all things being equal and principles accurately adhered to.

Living within your means is a good kind of practice, and it may well allow you to live better at a later date, so long as you don't necessarily forget about quality of ingredients, too..   Frequently there can be ways to cut without necessarily choosing bad quality foods.. and of course, you will know better regarding what you consider to be feasible areas to cut and the areas that you spend your money.


For sure, I understand the variance, and frequently you can project ahead your anticipated cashflows and your expenses.. When I first left high school I projected ahead 6 months, but my cashflow and expenses got more complicated at various points in time, so in that regard, if you project ahead you will likely be able to better see some areas in which you might have tighter cashflow versus expenses and areas where you have greater surplus..

so then maintaining a cushion in your cashflow can also allow you to be able to better see that if one or more of your cashflow sources increased or if you incurred greater expenses, then how (and how long) would you still be able to continue to sustain yourself without having to draw from emergency funds and which emergency funds would you draw from first, and maybe even in those kinds of emergency periods (if they were to come) you would lessen or discontinue contributing towards your bitcoin investment and hopefully be able to resolve your matters prior to having to draw from your bitcoin investment, except at a time that is completely of your own choosing (and maybe even your own preplanning in terms of setting withdrawal parameters - and if we are in BTC accumulation phases it should be less likely that withdrawal parameters regarding your BTC would be triggered)..



You may have seen me elaborate the three categories of DCA, buying on dip and lump sum investing.. and they can somewhat overlap, but if you were to have a system already set up in which you have $120 every month in which you can dedicate to buying BTC (so $30 per week); however, you want to save for the possibility of the dip, then you could dedicate half for DCA and the other half for buying on dip ($15 per week for each). 

Accordingly you may well want to force yourself to buy every week with the $15 DCA portion no matter what, and maybe you just try to time your buy price within the week for the $15 DCA half.  And then the other half of $15 for buying on dips, you may set your dip parameters (like you mentioned), so if your dip parameters are not met, then your buying on dip reserves continue to build and build and build.. until either your dip parameters are met or you change your dip parameter... but yeah, if you set your dip parameters in terms of percentages they should fill sooner or later.. . .and you can even structure your dips too so that you just have money prepared for dips at various levels.. but part of the problem could be that they might not get filled..


Of course, there are different sizes of whales and also different sizes of fish too.., and there would not necessarily be any need to be a whale merely based on how a person entered into BTC.  So, if a persons starts investing and the first investment is bitcoin, then it may well take a while to establish a decently-sized investment portfolio.. little by little and building over the years... so yeah, I had spent right around 25 years investing prior to getting into bitcoin, but still does not mean that I had built my investment portfolio to a size that was without errors along the way.. so sometimes, the investment portfolio still might not be very large, even if I spent 25 years building it (with ups and downs along the way). 

So let's say, for example, I had built an investment portfolio of $10k, and if I choose to start to invest into bitcoin, then I might decided to dedicate 10% of that into bitcoin, and I might decide to reach that 10% over the next year... Those are decisions within my parameters, and I would be considering what to do based on an already existing investment portfolio.  Size of the investment portfolio might not matter too much; however, I have found it quite impractical to even be considering diversifying a portfolio until it reaches a certain size that causes the dividing it up to still seem meaningful, so thresholds for diversifying is going to vary between people, and in that regard, I see no problem with someone who is new to investing (and new to building their investing portfolio) to focus on bitcoin and cash first, and then once the investment portfolio gets to a certain size that is determined by you to be of a sufficient size to start diversifying, then at that point, the diversification might start.. one asset at a time. 


We should attempt to NOT be pressured by  the circumstances of others in terms of figuring out how much we want to invest, how we we want to invest - including how aggressive we might want to be in our bitcoin investment approach...

You are correct that time in the market could put similarly situated persons far apart based on when they got into bitcoin, but also so many mistakes can be made and even lack of aggressiveness can cause more aggressive (and better planning people) to accel way beyond their peers and also way beyond persons who may have started in advantageous positions.. so there can be some great equalizing affects through bitcoin.. so long as you do it well and do not over do it.. and end up getting yourself reckt because of greed or impatience.

yes I totally agree with you. Globally, the economy is not very good, many countries are in recession and even some countries have gone bankrupt, examples of Sri Lanka are rare.
With the wars going on in Ukraine and Russia getting hotter, and the issue of world war 3 reoccurring, I think it would be better to save money first, and avoid going into debt.

I think so too, it's a good percentage for me to keep. Either way, investing for me is the best idea to do even if I'm a little hungry for a while.

The percentage range I agree with is between 10%-30% (max) of my monthly income, it depends on how I have needs for the month. For example for this month, about 20% of my monthly income has been put in the basket as an investment, this will come in handy later.


Yes, there are variations in my buying stages and it may depend on how the market is. But for the most part, I prefer to wait a while before buying on a dip. -10% in the last 24 hours is one of the criteria I use the most for entry.

Yes, I realized that. Whether or not someone is proficient in this investment depends on previous investment experience, knowledge and also financial condition. While you are greater than me because of several things that support as I mentioned above. So it comes as no surprise to me that maybe you are actually a whale in bitcoin. Lol

Let me tell you, that $10 is my 10 days allowance in school and 5 days in college. So it must be hard to get me ahead of you. We're talking about two different financial situations here, so you're probably more likely to take advantage of a good opportunity based on your financial ability to invest than I am.

My business plan is still around 6 months away meaning the early 2023 will start I think that's a long time to wait how the worldwide recession has improved or not of course I'm also paying attention to what's happening in the economy right now so I won't rush hurry up.

You have never discouraged me, this is actually a good suggestion so that I can reconsider opening my business, and indeed during the recession success has been low but I hope for the better in the whole economy now and in the future.

It's none of my business, but I believe it would be better for you to postpone your plan in opening a business. The economies around the globe will go through a recession, and make it financially harder for you to maintain having a job and a business.

I'm not trying to discourage you, but opening a business during a recession will give you a lower probability of success. I believe it would be better to save all your capital until a more bullish situation emerges.

My assumption is at least $25 in DCA investment per month for the next 5 years plan and indeed this is not too aggressive because in 5 years only making $1500 is quite a bit but it's true what you said I will determine myself and adjust my finances to feel more stable which means I going to do more than $25 later, maybe $50/$100/$150 I'll put in the planned DCA.

At the moment I only have a fixed salary from my monthly work, while I have a plan in the next 6 months to open a business and of course my income will increase slightly, so I will add the allocation which was originally $25 to be slightly larger because it will adjust My income is from the results of the business that is opened.

I think that 5 years has been a long investment with 5 years of travel I will continue to experience market movements and learn a lot about bitcoin in it, in essence I must be able to manage good money management during this trip before leaving.

Although I like to post about Bitcoin's ongoing path of price discovery to a six digit valuation per coin, it's actually more important to try buy the Pico DIP if you don't have the mental strength to maintain a DCA-style strategy like JuanJayGee.

Furthermore, Bitcoin has probably priced in the expected 75 BPS rate hike on July 27 FOMC meeting. There's no more FOMC meetings until September 20. ALL MARKETS will possibly take that opportunity to SURGE.

If in doubt check your chart, Never buy because others are buying, never buy because some one suggested to you the current price is the dip always check your chart for confirmation in general do your rvesown analysis, do your own research. But if your research says buy ensure to buy and hodl the harvest will be more massive this time. Hope to see you smile in the bull.

It appears that for investors who are using an investment strategy to buy the dip, it is presently becoming a very good time to buy slowly without the fear of missing out hehehe. According to this article, bitcoin is under the longest period for extreme fear. The next millionaires of the cryptospace are buying while there is blood on the streets.



Bitcoin is now in its longest-ever 'extreme fear' period

This has now been quantified by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a tool that takes multiple sources into account to create an overall score of how the markets are feeling.

As of July 15, Fear & Greed has spent 70 days in its lowest bracket — "extreme fear" — marking of a new bearish record.

Source https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-is-now-in-its-longest-ever-extreme-fear-period

Of course nothing is guaranteed, and surely past performance does not guarantee future results either.

Don't get me wrong, $25 per month is better than nothing, but it is surely not very aggressive since you can see from your link that it will ONLY result in about $1,500 invested over 5 years but at the same time, each of us has to determine for ourselves at what level of aggressive we are able to be, and still feel comfortable financially and psychologically no matter which direction the BTC price goes during that time.  Of course, we can study BTC along the way and to tweak our plan along the way based on such ongoing learnings (and even possibly changes in our finances and psychology) too.. which seems to be what you are saying in regards to your plan to continue to learn.

I like to remind folks that I have frequently suggested a 4-10 year or more timeline as a kind of minimum way of thinking about getting into bitcoin and planning for the long term, so you can set up your plan for your DCA investment plan.. but it does not even mean that you would necessarily be in a good position to start pulling out of BTC after 5 years, because from my thinking every time that you invest into BTC, you should be considering 4-10 years from those additional injections of value.. so if you are DCAing for 5 years, then your latest contributions would still need to wait 4-10 years to play out.

At the same time, you are totally in charge of your own life and your own finances, so you can figure out whatever works for you, even though I like to reiterate that long term investment can take a whole hell of a long time to play out and if we are playing the whole matter right, our BTC investment portfolio will continue to grow and grow and grow over the years, and that growth should help us to make decisions regarding if we might need to make some adjustments to what we are doing, including realizing that many folks invest 30-40 years or more over their working lives, and sometimes they still will hardly have shit to show for all of their working lives even if they had been working 30-40 years and investing the whole time... so hopefully bitcoin allows each of us to improve our lots and we do not fuck up our system by getting overly anxious in terms of not allowing the longer term to play out. which would include that. if possible we may well may be needing to look at trying to be able to put more in than $25 per month over 5 years.. but at the same time, sure we do not want to overdo it for our own circumstances either.. and surely if we only have $25 per month, it could take us 10-20 years or even more before really feeling a lot of substantial and meaningful pay off.. and surely there may well be mistakes made along the way, too.. and surely the lots of people are different too in terms of either what they need or what they believe would be a good way to manage their BTC holdings in terms of considering points to cash out or to even diversify or to use their BTC stash in one way or another.

I will start the plan with a regular bitcoin investment called DCA, about 15% I will separate from my income and this starts in July after the end of the month receiving salary because I am planning for a 5 year term with DCA implemented, I expect my consistent and I've set up my investment calculations here https://dcabtc.com/?sd=2017-07-18&sda=5_years&f=monthly&d=5_years&ac=2500&c=false
I also need to learn a lot because this is not too easy, we need to know from people who can get through this well, sometimes if there is a severe crash on bitcoin we will be a little lazy, but if we are sure and consistent monthly purchases on bitcoin it will promise meaning there is definite benefits later

30% is really good.

I did have some time-frames in my earliest of investment portfolio building years that I was able to achieve those kinds of numbers.

My core basic number was to always try to get at least 10% of my monthly income set aside into various investments even when my income was not very high.. and even while I was in college.. which also was not very easy, and sometimes I got mixed up in terms of how to figure out cashflow and investments.. (and surely those earlier years of my building my investment portfolio were way before I learned about bitcoin).

It really can pay off in the longer term to stay consistent in terms of setting value aside and even trying to figure out how to allocate that value once it gets BIG enough to start to consider if maybe too many eggs are in too few of baskets..


Sometimes these are not easy decisions to figure out something like whether enough is in bitcoin or if there might be some need to invest in other things, and of course, it would be difficult for anyone who knows much of anything about bitcoin to NOT be considering that at least some level of ongoing buying of BTC, such as DCAing would not be valuable.. and the amount of money that you hold back for buying on dips purposes can surely vary too.. 


For anyone who knows much of anything about bitcoin, I should be difficult to sell bitcoin at all in this price range unless you are at least a couple of cycles into it... and your forum registration is not very much different from mine, Falconer.. even though it surely may well be the case that you were not able to be as aggressive as I was able to do during 2013/2014 and even 2015.. I had already come to bitcoin with a pretty decently established overall investment portfolio... so I understand that even my own considerations would have likely been way different if I had been like a high school or college student in my earlier days of knowing about BTC.. and in that regard, there can be difficulties figuring out how much cash to dedicate to bitcoin, and even back then the investment thesis for bitcoin was not as strong.. so maybe some of the people who did not have much if any cashflow might have had some difficulties even investing something like $10 per week into bitcoin..

But even $10 per week would have done pretty well over the last 8 years or so.. with an ability to have had accumulated around 4 BTC with an investment of $4,180.. .so sometimes even relatively modest ongoing DCA can end up paying off decently well.. and if $10 per week over the past 8 years could have gotten 4 BTC, then $100 per week would have gotten 40 BTC... so sometimes it ends up paying off to employ a wee bit more aggressive approach.. so long as you are not over doing it.. Each of us has to make sure that we are careful to make sure that we have other aspects of our personal life in a good spot in terms of covering all of our expenses (even emergency expenses) without having to necessarily tap into any of our investments (especially BTC) at a time that is anything other than our complete and voluntary choosing...

I would probably be happy if during this bear market I could buy more bitcoin on dip. It is really a wish that I have considered and it is true that 30% of my monthly income (outside the forum) I dedicate to investment. Buy on dip is a great strategy for anyone who is targeting long term profits, honestly I would like to have more bitcoin with this strategy and I am on my way now.

It would also be wise not to always think about small gains in the market. No need to think about selling it too fast even though in 1 year we have seen 50% profit, it's about long-term targets that might be an investment for more than the next decade.

Well, if you have a long term view of bitcoin in terms of assessing its value and its current price as compared with possible future prices, then you are not necessarily going to give too many shits about whether it has reached the bottom yet or if you need to have some evidence of confidence to buy on the way up.. which surely is a quite a bit different mind frame than buying on the dip.

So part of the assessment that anyone would need to make is in regard to where they personally are at in their BTC accumulation stage, and of course, if accumulation targets have largely been met or exceeded then waiting around for more dip, HODLing and/or waiting for UPside confirmation might be reasonably prudent strategies, but if someone is just getting started in BTC and/or is way under accumulated (under allocated in BTC), then they probably need not be fucking around with contemplations about whether going back up is confirmed or not.. so DCA and buying on dips would be ongoingly good strategies for anyone in a position of low or no BTC accumulation.

By the way.. if you had not noticed, on a personal level, I am not very much of a fan for buying on the way up for anyone.. even though I know some folks do it.. but I would think that those guys tend to end up leaving a lot of value on the table because there sure are not very many folks who are decently good at making money using TA methods... so in bitcoin, the goals should be assessing your own personal financial circumstances and striving for reaching some target BTC accumulation levles.. and of course if the timeline is 4-10 years or longer, then likely you are going to be in good (and even better) shape than trying to employ tactics that try to time the market.. including that buying on dips may well be a technique that only supplements rather than replaces DCA.. at least in the earliest of the BTC accumulation stages (before reaching some personally preset target BTC accumulation levels).

Edit:  One more point that may well deserve reiteration/emphasis is that how the fuck would anyone consider that $21k might be some kind of confirmation that either the bottom is in or what it is a good point to start accumulating BTC if your goals might be to confirm that the bottom is in.

Sure, I admit that I am not any kind of expert when it comes to making those kinds of calls, but we seem to be having way too many things going on if there is some kind of assessment that supra $21k is some kind of confidence point.

Another thing is that I don't really like to fuck around with short term calls anyhow.. even though historically we can see all kinds of examples in which bottoms do not end up being in, even if there is a decently sized upwards recovery.. so we could get up to $25k or even $30k and still not have a whole hell of a lot of confidence that the bottom is in for sure or with any kind of confidence.

Some of us might have appreciated that once bitcoin prices went below $35k in mid-May 2022 and did not immediately recover.. there were pretty strong indications that we were confirmed to be in a bear market.. so how do we get out of that?  Do we need to get back above $35k or would $30k be enough?  $21k does not seem to even be close to enough, unless we are talking about trying to trade short term ups and down in BTC price - which surely is not the topic of this thread.. and the reason that we might want to talk about larger trends is not necessarily to trade them, but instead to attempt to figure out buying the dip strategies.. or maybe how buying the dip might meaningfully supplement DCA for those people who are have reservations in regards to how much reliance to give at all to how much of a dip is enough of a dip to buy more or to have some fears of running out of money or how to balance the amount of money that is held in reserves for buying at various dipping points (no one really feels so good to run out of money if they keep buying the dip but the BTC price keeps dipping).... Not even our fearless leader Wind_FURY  (hahahahahaha.. I had to do a little name-dropping, just for funzies).

Well he will obviously adjusted it already, to fit a perfect model so that it will be the target again, hehehe. Yep, in the years that I have been here, (early 2017, seen the bull run then bearish, then the cycle repeats again), I would say that we can't outsmart and fight the market, the pattern = true again, so now we are in a bear market and it might take years again before we can fully recover and yeah, 6 figures will be the target next.

To fulfill the desire of any general investors, i think there is no alternative option but to hold. Holding and trading both are risky but buy from the dip is less or we can say comparatively risk free investment. The current BTC price is 70 percent lower than before, which I can definitely refer to as a dip. With the current price just above $21k you can buy it as a dip only when it goes above $19k.

In the last few months, the market continues to be hit by bears and the pressure on bitcoin in the market has made the bitcoin price drop to below $20K, indeed the bitcoin price is starting to look stable at the price of $20K but I doubt if bitcoin will stay at $20 long enough In near time, the frequency with which bitcoin fails to break through the existing price resistance actually boomerangs for bitcoin and makes it go back down, and I think we might see bitcoin price drop back to $18-19K if bitcoin is not able to hold on to $20K in the near time.