Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 479. (Read 123064 times)

FTFY

You did not really say anything wrong, yet many of us likely realize that we need to ongoingly attempt to account for the likelihood that an overwhelming majority of regular people (aka normies) do not have any coin or they are low coiners, and perhaps even active participants in this forum (including this thead) fit within a similar situation - except that probably if we are members of this forum and perhaps more actively involved in various forum threads, then we likely are a little further down the BTC accumulation path - as compared to the regular person.

It seems that part of the rationale behind this thread is attempting to emphasize various ways to make sure that each of us is erroring on the side of BTC accumulation - even at the same time as there likely are some decently varying ideas regarding which strategies are going to work best to ongoingly remain BTC accumulation/stacking focused.. so surely many of us who are active in this thread likely already agree on the fact we should have BTC accumulation/stacking goals even if we might not quite agree upon the various ways that we might better accomplish BTC accumulation in a way that we feel that we can maximize our own abilities to get the best (or better) bang for the buck... which there likely are not any real solutions to resolve that almost no matter what we do there is likely going to continue to be tensions in terms of each of us having questions about whether we might be doing a better job in accumulating BTC or might we be able to do better?


It seems to me that we need to be careful in terms of either being patronizing towards the eldery in terms of acting like we know something that they do not, even though it may well be the case that we do.. but surely everyone knows things that others do not know, so in that regard, there seems to always be quite a bit of value in terms of approaching elderly people and others in terms of their own agency and their own needs to make their own choices.

At the same time, if we are having any kind of conversation with anyone, whether elderly or not, there likely is a bit of a direction that is back and forth in terms of the conversation may well end up going in a variety of directions, and whenever we might be talking about finances, there may well be quite a bit of sensitivities in regards to the amount of information that we might have in regards to the various balances that anyone might be making and choosing (or not choosing) to disclose some of the details that we might have to make some estimations about how we might frame the subject..or the recommendation... that ultimately leaves them with the choices regarding how to get in, how much to put in and then maybe they might need more help in terms of setting up accounts, unless we are choosing to sell them bitcoin ourselves, which brings its own potential set of issues (not necessarily bad).


Sure there can be questions regarding how to treat direct in line family members but then also if we come to some kind of an agreement that we might even be holding their coins.. in the event that they might have some challenges when it comes to setting up their own accounts or their own ways of holding their corn.


Yeah of course, you can employ your own variation of DCA, but if you do not really understand what you are doing, it is likely best to attempt to employ a more strict variation of DCA first, and make sure that you understand the more strict variation of DCA before you start to get too fancy and then end up doing something that you call DCA but it really is not even close to what DCA should be.. but instead a kind of buying on dips or even a kind of gambling, but you call it DCA because you start out with DCA and then devolve into something else.


You seem to be describing that correctly.  So if you have a regular DCA set up, then you might have some dollars that you are holding in reserves, so when the BTC price dips, then you decide how much of that money in reserves that you are going to want to use to buy during the dip.. so if you are still ongoingly employing DCA and then also buying BTC on dips, then that would merely be a form of supplementing the DCA with buying on dips... and there is surely nothing wrong with those kinds of strategies, as long as you are able to figure out why they are different and then your education on the topic helps to inform you how many dollars that you would like to ongoingly dedicate (or reserve) for each of the practices.. and of course, you can change the amount of dollars that you dedicate to each category as your cashflow might change and also if you have situations in which your dollar reserves might build up to high amounts or become depleted more quickly than you had expected (or hoped).. so you can make adjustments to the amount of dollar value that you ongoingly try to maintain in each of the categories of your funding of your BTC accumulation strategies.


That's a good question regarding how involved any of us might get in terms of either giving advice and/or manageing the funds and/or having some discretion over the direction of the funds (like fiduciary duties).. so are we either gaining fiduciary duties or taking them upon ourselves when it comes to how involved that we might choose to get in the BTC accumulation and/or management of funds.


Take your trading bullshit to another thread, and sure your trading or whatever it is that you are describing might work.. who fucking cares? 

you are in the wrong thread to be framing trading as if you had been talking about DCA, when you are not talking about DCA.

You seem to be a disingenuine fuck to be presenting your ideas as if they were DCA.. and in the end you come back to clarify what you meand and then to explain that you had really been talking about trading.

..and some of us, including yours truly, attempted to give you some benefit of the doubt that you were actually talking about some kind of a DCA strategy..

I should have known better.


Fuck professionals.

Who gives any shits?

A lot of what we are trying to do is to figure out various ways that people can engage in fairly-straight forward strategies to accumulate BTC.... read the OP and the title of the thread.  It's about buying... and sure we interpret that to various kinds of accumulation.. and the more complicated that you end up making your accumulation, then the more difficult it becomes to employ whatever complicated formula that you are suggesting.


Again, who cares about the amount of money.  We have people who might have $1 per week or they might have $100 or they might have $1k or more who can employ basic BTC accumulation techniques, so who gives any shits about the supposed "BIG Balls" players who might happen to have more money .. blah blah blah.. fuck off with that shilling talk.  What do you want to sell, Agbamoni?  Are you trying to act like you have some kind of authority because you know people with a lot of money?


Fuck off with the trading bot talk too.  Either create your own thread, or go join a thread in which your trading bot talk is on topic.


I think that you are referring to my example of a $1,200 budget and placing them in 4 different price locations.

I think that I largely addressed this as a way that some kinds of buy order structures and plans are deficient and they may well cause panic because of their deficiencies, so merely dividing them into equal parts would not necessarily improve the deficiencies that I was trying to point out, but I agree with you that there are some benefits in terms of trying to stay somewhat consistent with amounts, once we might figure out other details, such as what are our increments, how much we have in our budget and how far down we want our buys to go in order to attempt to account for what we believe to be worse case scenarios (and perhaps even having enough of a budget to go beyond what we consider to be worse case scenarios).

And indeed this is a very good time to buy more than what we previously planned, do not hesitate to start because we can already see from the history of BTC movements over the past few months. Right now BTC is making a correction, and the price has now touched the support point in June yesterday and this is the third lowest support in 2023. This means that starting next month I am very confident that BTC will start its rise at least until it touches the resistance point in the last month at around $32k, but I hope that BTC will continue its rise. That's right, now is a very good opportunity to buy as much as possible and then hold it for at least the next few months if you are too afraid to face price fluctuations, now is a good step to apply technical analysis. I would strongly recommend that you start now, don't regret it when the opportunity is gone. Honestly, I have looked at the history of price movements since the beginning of 2023 and can conclude that now is the right time to stockpile more when the price is at the third lowest support this year, I see no doubt in this condition.

Well that's right, of course when someone has entered the elderly stage then most likely they will not take this too seriously, they will tend to see what benefits they get and maybe besides that whether they will immediately be able to enjoy the results or not, an elderly person has a mature mindset and if some facts about BTC cannot make them convinced then they will not jump into it and maybe not at all interested, while on the other hand they have to wait first with a fairly long time to be able to enjoy the benefits of BTC itself. That's right, on the other hand of course this will be a big hurdle for some people who will recommend it.
They are quite old and it makes sense that money is no longer the main thing for them because they just sit back and enjoy the rest of their lives, and the new technology about BTC might be the opportunity to make them feel interested in trying it. 

Well this can be fixed with the experience we have because of course we also realise that it would be very stupid to keep doing the same thing and on the other hand mistakes like this are quite common and I think almost everyone has done the same thing at least one or several times especially when they are new to investing and buying bitcoin.

Btw the division is quite good but I think we can still divide it equally such as with $300 in each purchase or DCA made or maybe make it $200 in one time it is also still possible.

Because if it is too big to make a purchase, we are worried that our consistency will decrease and this is precisely what makes DCA not work well.

DCA comes with various plans depending on how much someone knows about trading. I'm happy my plan has been good and it's been working for two years. It's easy, make the most of price changes by buying when it's low and selling when it's high. If you're unsure, the base order is the first investment amount you won't go over.


I'm glad you found this helpful and could understand and connect with it. I agree with you. If you read my earlier response again, I pointed out that this strategy is particularly effective for professionals. These experts often have a good amount of money to trade, sometimes on behalf of a company or a group of Bitcoin investors. To meet their target returns within a specific time, they need to use this strategy.

You know, Ryu, some people use trading bots for this purpose. It's a good approach too. With trading bots, you can input certain configurations and connect them to the exchange API you prefer. You set your initial investment amount and you're all set!

More simply, and from Bitcoin's technical viewpoint - As long as the transaction follows the consensus rules, it will be broadcasted and it will be included in the blocks for confirmation. No prejudice, no stereotypes, just Bitcoin transactions that you may approve or disapprove of.

 

I'm not a hypocrite when it comes to experiencing new technology, to be honest, the benefits still hold for people who enter Bitcoin, regardless of the new technology, it's a plus point to be felt by everyone. But when there is no profit to be gained, it does not mean that interest in it has increased. The important point of what we are targeting is long-term profit. Old age and youth are only a limit if we are able to place it according to the level of understanding. Your grandfather is good enough and willing to make decisions, but when something unexpected happens, you should at least be the first to allocate the profit for your grandfather's health insurance, not for personal gain.

TBH, I did not realize DCA have types. Because I have been advice by legendary members that we should do DCA to get more Coins. But I never heard about types of DCA. And after reading these, I can say, each person can come up with their own DCA strategy which might suits them best. Like if to some person this DCA deviation multiplier is not working fine then they go after the second one. But One thing I did not understand there is what does the meaning of "Base order" here. I hope someone would shed a light on it please.

Means he knows the difference between Trading and Holding Because at first case he is holding which will provide him good results IMO. I think you should ask your friend to share the stats of 2 years trading and Holding in BTC. And you should compare which was profitable. In my thoughts, the holding will be more profitable.

I read your previous discussions and after reading the reply of Furious in previous page, I began to think should we even do DCA in dumps like these because we knew this is the lowest BTC could go. But if we do not know either it's the lowest or not then it is always a good strategy to save some fiat to enter to buy more Satoshi in dips. But still, I think DCA is not something a strict rule which we should follow like we could make decisions of taking entries with the sensitivity of market.

Let's say we have still $1000 in savings even after doing the DCA when the BTC is at $20k and after some bad news or whatever reason BTC again touches $17k or $18k then I think the wise decision would be to put all $1000 into the market instead still doing DCA at that moment.

You are right, for elderly people over 70-80 years old, age can be a big barrier when we recommend bitcoin to them because to be able to profit from bitcoin, they need to hold bitcoin for at least 4 years if the cycle is repeated. So I think when recommending bitcoin to them, we should emphasize that bitcoin investment takes a long time and let them make the best decision for themselves.

It's really a big hurdle, but we shouldn't let that stop us from recommending bitcoin to them. Because maybe their desire is not necessarily profit but most likely, they want to experience new technology like bitcoin. I think at that age, money is no longer a big deal for them.

If my grandfather also likes to invest in bitcoin. I am willing to use my own money for him to experience because at my grandfather's age, money is not the most important thing.

This has been true from the beginning. Buy Bitcoin when its price drops. Bitcoin has been giving us opportunity for a long time. Now it's giving us more opportunity. Let's say the price drops from here, it will recover quickly. But when the price of Bitcoin goes up, we need to see that today is an opportunity so that we don't wish we had bought in time.

Bitcoin will always have price fluctuations. You need to take advantage of these days. Bitcoin is at a good price point for Hodl.

That does not sound like anything that I said.

I did say that the local dip so far is at 20%, yet if you look historically, there are sometimes in which uptrends are happening but dips are greater than 30% and they can sometimes even be greater than 50% or 60% prior to the UP price movements continuing.

Dips can be frequently scary because we do not know whether they are ending the up trend or not, and sometimes we realize that the BTC price is going to stay down for several years rather than recovering and resuming the uptrend.  and other times, it ends up being very profitable to buy the dip, but you cannot know for sure if the dip is ONLY going to be 10% or 20% or even 30% rather than some greater than 30% dip amount.. you can still profit from buying 10% dips.. or even not even waiting for dips and just continuing to ongoingly DCA.. .. set aside a certain amount and buy once a week, for example...

..so while we are in the process of witnessing the BTC price moving UP and DOWN, it is not always clear if DCA would be better or buying on dip would be better or lump sum investing would be better or some combination of those; however, after the price has dipped and recovered and shot up to whatever amount that it ends up going up, then at that point it becomes clear what you should have had done, but it hardly makes any sense to expect that you are going to have hardly any clue about what the BTC price ends up doing, so in that regard, each of us has to figure out for ourselves the various points that we believe that we should be buying BTC and the various points that we want our fiat stash to build up in order to have some dry powder to either buy on dips or just to buy during certain time frames that we find acceptable based on how much cash we might have coming in and how much cash we expect to come in.

If that kind of approach can work for other people, then I think it can work for us too if we implement it well enough even though you say you still have to have sufficient funds to be able to survive in the long term to carry out that approach. And I think it won't be difficult enough for you to do because most people at this point can still survive when they see market conditions start to differ from what they predicted.

As for DCA, you can actually do it without calculating market sentiment, because so far DCA is still good enough to be done by anyone with the ability and courage. Because current market sentiment also changes frequently, you only need to apply the DCA if it's still difficult to measure market sentiment simultaneously with DCA.

Is true because Bitcoin movement is hardly predictable considering the volatility, the price can go up 9% within 24hours and it can also drop the same way within 24hours, so if someone is always waiting for the price to drop more than 20% before getting into the market the investor may be likely to wait for a long period of time if at all it will drop below that, I was actually a victim of always waiting for price to get to a particular position before buying it, I had set my portfolio ready to invest when Bitcoin drops to a certain price but since then it has gone the opposite direction so I regretted that if had known I would have gotten into the market then instead of waiting for extreme dipped, so JayJuanGee just like you said I have actually referred back to some previous years ago and Bitcoin dipping has always maintain the support level between 10% to 20% and after then it bounce back going up.

So I realized as an investor this are the things that should also be considered since Bitcoin movement is hardly predictable one can actually understand the Bitcoin percentage movement that whenever it gets to particular percent it's likely to bounce back up.

I'm new to this way of working and thank you for bringing something new to the table.
But on the other hand by doing a strategy like this even though it is still very good but we also have to be more careful if we have minimal finances.
The possibility that will occur is the difficulty in being consistent if doing DCA with this method because in the end this can be one of the problems that cannot be avoided I think.
Indeed, this can still be done but with some notes such as we have more supplies (in terms of finance) because if not then your DCA will actually make you unable to buy bitcoin again because you run out of money considering this method can be said to be quite aggressive in doing so.

This approach is good as it takes care of both short term and long term target. However, it require someone with deep pocket to carry because I feel it will require some reasonable  funds to sustain. Don't get me wrong, I love the approach and I am happy it is working for you.

What I don't understand is what you mean by DCA sentimental market approach and how you apply that. Is that not the same thing as being speculative if you have to gauge market sentiment? I thought DCA does not factor in market sentiment?

Yeah, you're right the budget also plays a role to either consider it aggressive or not. There are many people who can make $10 to $100 per week for DCA purpose and that's the max they can allocate for the operation. There are surely some people with much higher budget but majority of the investors would be able to allocate $10 to $100 per week without any issues.

That's true the $2 million is going to be a really high level of status for many people, and hardly there will be those people who could accomplish that goal. Well it's also true that $200k as also a high status thing for many members of the forum because most of the users are still unable to have their hands of a whole 1 Bitcoin. I agree that everyone live their life in a different way and each person have different needs, so for someone $200k would be a fortune while for others $2 million is still a low amount.


You're right the ones who are still new in the world of Bitcoin should purchase some amount as soon as they find about it. And, there are many folds who still have nothing in their portfolio and they should also purchase some amount in Bitcoin without caring much about its price. When they get some amount in their portfolio then they should follow the dip accumulation approach as with such approach they will be able to increase their accumulation over time and they will be the ones who may always get Bitcoin at lower rates. Sometimes Bitcoin faces a sudden dip that's totally unexpected like the one it faced few days ago. In those times an investors should accumulate a lot of it by investing the money that he/she is keeping secure for such dips.



Well, that's true that Bitcoin's price may not face a dip every single month and yes there is no guarantee as well that the price with the dip will be cheaper than it's today, but still the one who wants to invest in it would have saved some money for that dip event and may invest it to accumulate some Bitcoin. I also agree that Bitcoin sometimes go way higher in price and the dips won't be good way to accumulate more in those times, but that can happen after a long period of bear market and in starts of the bull market. In regular times Bitcoin won't go much higher in value and a sudden dip could make someone to accumulate a lot of it.

I remember when Bitcoin dipped below $16k and many people were expecting that it would dip even below that price range, but after sometime it slowly starts gaining its price back again. Those kind of dips can happen only after some major events that take place in crypto currency world, and during those times the FTX fraud has caused the price of Bitcoin to go that low in value. We are still prone to such events and maybe in future if something like LUNA crash or FTX crash takes place in the crypto world then the Bitcoin may lose more of its current value because of being impacted by the failure of other coins or exchanges.


You're right that I have been registered on this forum since 2016 and my 7 years are completed. Actually they were completed a few days ago, and thanks a lot for your kind words. You're very right that if I had used DCA for a least 7 years then in this day I would have accumulated 1 whole Bitcoin. But, I didn't used DCA for those years and I regret my decision. I had more than $13 per week, but I didn't thought about DCA in those days, and that's one of the biggest mistakes that I have made. But, I won't follow those ways now and will continue to accumulate more and more bitcoins during the dips. Surely, I will have some good number of bitcoins in my portfolio after a few years, and I would be using DCA plus dip buying techniques in combination. By the way, you have pointed it very right that if someone would have used DCA to $13 per week during those years would have already accumulated a Bitcoin at this date.

You both made a clear point on DCA during the dip and between being a passive/consistent DCA practitioner or a multi market speculator who take advantage of the market conditions to make their oder book, this may go side ways, like in my own situation.


I DCA both upward and downwards that is to say i don't have specific DCA time frame like others have such as waiting for the bull run before DCA but for me i have a bilateral portfolio where my total Bitcoin accumulation percentage is divided into two, were the bigger part belong to my cold wallet for long term base, and the other smaller part is left to take chances in the volatility of the bitcoin market and this way i can use this remaining amount to buy or sell at any time.


This have been my approach since late 2022 and up till now i have not changed in my approach to Bitcoin accumulation vs DCA sentimental market approach which feeds on the volatility of Bitcoin.

I agree with you completely. For a volatile market like Bitcoin, there are high chances that this method may not be as effective as it seem in theory. It might work for a market that is a little stable with dips here and there like we have now. But should there be any major surge in price, one might be left behind or forced to buy at a very high price. Let us not forget too soon that Bitcoin can jump thousands of dollars a day. If that happens, someone waiting to buy the dip might miss the major move.

DCA eliminates the chances of missing out even if there is a spike. DCA also make one have feasible expectations and not be emotionally perturbed when the dip is becoming deeper. In other words, imagine buying the dip only to realise that the supposed dip is not actually the dip as price continue going lower... the chances of panic buying as well as running out of cash (which you captured in your comment) is high.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that it's bad because I know that DCA is something that is indeed one of the strategies that can be done and I still agree that it should be sustainable (consistent) with the previous but the point of adjusting what I mean is that when we do DCA in conditions like this then we also have to have a reserve fund that can be used as an optional to buy dips because this can also be done.

This might sound impulsive and a pretty barbaric strategy, but if we can afford to do something like that then why not.
It is not meant to change the DCA that was done before and the DCA still continues to be done, it's just that we can also take advantage of making some new purchases when a decline like this occurs because this would be a shame to miss.

You cannot really know if it too aggressive unless you know his total budget, but I do believe that the numbers are a bit unrealistic, and part of the reason that we talk about $10 per week or $100 per week is to attempt to be somewhat realistic in terms of what kind of budget that people might have.  There surely are some people with higher budgets, but it is probably better to attempt to be more relatable to more people.

I know that even I talk about fuck you status being around $2 million - even though I know that some forum members might well be able to consider something like $200k as fuck you status.  A $2 million investment portfolio should be able to fairly easily draw $6,666 of passive income per month, and so a $200k would ONLY be able to draw $666 per month, and surely there are forum members who consider that to be a totally acceptable amount for both their expectations of a current life style maintenance and even presuming that such amount be able to account for what they expect to be increases in their cost of living too.


For sure, to some extent, I don't have any problem with BTC accumulation approaches that attempt to time the BTC price in such a way to be able to get better BTC prices - however, I do consider that the very newest people in bitcoin should not be attempting to fuck around with trying to time their buys unless they really already have a pretty solid plan that also involves regularly buying no matter what the BTC price.  Sure, once they get to a certain BTC accumulation level then it will become more practical and reasonable for them to try to time the BTC price dips a bit because they already have BTC in the event that they are not able to buy as much as they would like to buy on the dip, if the BTC price ends up going up, they are likely already sufficiently prepared for the BTC price to go up.. and sure, maybe they will end up kicking themselves for failure/refusal to just buy rather than trying to strategize for the next BTC price dip that may or may not end up happening.


It's not guaranteed that the BTC price will dip every single month and even if the BTC prices does end up dipping, it is not guaranteed that the price will be anywhere even close to cheaper than it is now... we sometimes can get periods in which the BTC price might go up 50% or even more than 100%, but then it only dips like 10% or 20% and then goes on another upwards run.  Sure maybe there will be a BIGGER correction later that goes into the 25% to 50% arena, but there is no way to really rely on such a dip taking place, and we cannot know for sure when such dip is going to happen.

If we look at our November 2022 low of $15,479, then we will see that the BTC price had doubled when it reached $31,818 ion July 13, but then our current low correction has ONLY been around 20% down to the current amount of $25,601 - but even with that, there are no guarantees in regards to whether we are going to get further dips, and the BTC price could end up going up to $35k without much if any further dip.. so in any event there can be a decent number of advantages to attempt to prepare for a variety of scenarios that you would be willing to accept without causing you to panic if you ended up overly preparing for a situation that did not end up playing out. 

Also, I understand that it could be quite frustrating for anyone who might be relatively new to BTC and if they might ONLY have $10 per week that they are able to invest, so it could take a while for them to build up a side-pot that allows them to keep some money on the side for BTC price dips, and surely it is easier for the BTC investor (even if newbie) who has $100 per week that s/he is able to invest, but even someone with $100 per week might find that their investment amount is too small and it becomes even smaller if they choose to hold some of it on the side in order to wait for dips, so they still might have to decide from their real world budget regarding how much to buy in a regularly scheduled way, versus holding some aside for dips and then if the BTC price has already dipped whether the already dipped price causes them to tweak how much they are deciding to allocate towards DCA versus buying on dips.

Even with you, SamReomo, you have been registered on the forum for long enough (a little more than 7 year anniversary, congrats)  - maybe even similarly to our fearless OP (Wind_FURY).. and accordingly, even a fairly modest DCA approach of $13 per week over the past 7 years would have gotten you to more than 1 BTC by now with a mere investment of $4,748 - yet at the same time, if you figure out what kind of strategies that you have been employing over the past 7 years, have you been able to significantly/materially beat those kinds of returns  in terms of trying to strategize dips.

So yeah, more aggressive like $130 per week may well have ended up getting you to more than 10 BTC of accumulation, but if you were to have had attempted to employ a BTC accumulation strategy that was beyond your "free cashflow" then you may well have had ended up recking your self. . because you had over done it in terms of how much was available in your own budget.


Yeah, but it is still not necessary to play around with that - unless you have already been accumulating BTC for a while... so in that sense it is not "needed" to take advantage of dips..


Sure, that is called buying on dips, and surely there is nothing wrong with buying on dips, but you run the risk of both running out of money if you keep buying more and more and the BTC price keeps dipping, so as long as you have yourself covered to include preparations for dips that might not happen, then no problem, keep buying on dips and hope that your last reserve is not met too soon.  Another problem is that if you are waiting for dips and holding money in reserves that you want to use to buy BTC, but you are waiting for your price to hit, and if you have not already bought some and you are just waiting for more dip, then you might end up not buying BTC because you were trying to be more greedy than you needed to be in order to suffiicently profit by just making the BTC buy - even if the BTC price may well end up dipping more after you had already stocked up.