Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 479. (Read 108087 times)

I am not going to deny some of the truth to what you are saying, but such discussion of shitcoin correlation starts to get into some of my pet-peeve areas in which there is all kinds of sloppy analysis out there attempting to make a variety of correlations of shitcoins and bitcoin, and part of the shitcoin pump and dump theses revolve around a variety of confusing and misleading discussions on that point.

It seems that my attempted context in raising the intertwined idea was largely an attempt to be a bit more concrete about our recent Luna/Terra/Do Kwon/shitcoin shenanigans in which whether some of the behavior was intended to directly affect bitcoin or not, their own pegging of their shitcoin to bitcoin, their disclosure of how they expected to defend the peg and even how the whole matter ended up playing out (which had already been hypothesized prior to it happening) ended up causing a decent amount of inevitability that bitcoin was going to be affected when 80k bitcoins end up getting dumped in a short period of time...

There may be some of us, including yourself and even yours truly, who might end up wanting to bow out of certain kinds of conversations, even if we might have somewhat strong speculative ideas because sometimes there may well be too many possible causal factors that go into some of our areas of speculation that it becomes too far detached from plausible scenarios if we try to argue about what might happen after x, y and z have already happened.. but if x, y and z have not yet happened, then what good is it going to do to get into such discussions that assume x, y and z to have had already happened when they may or may not even end up happening.

Anyhow, I personally try to stay on more direct and immediate scenarios rather than getting to too many legs down the road because even though I have some ideas about those kinds of matters (and sometimes even strong ideas), I don't find very much discussion of them to be very helpful or actionable in terms of what is happening right now. 

For example, when folks start to proclaim that bitcoin fees are not going to be sufficient to sustain bitcoin mining/security incentives once the reward is reduced below some threshold point that seems to be way into the future, and I just start to get irritated as fuck with some of those conversations because even though there is some kinds of preparations that can be made now to account for such, there is a certain amount need to see how matters play out in order to know how much if any further preparations (and in what direction) may well need to be made.. So, even if there might be some current time considerations/preparations regarding further out scenarios, it can be frustrating to spend too much time in considering them in a shorter (or even medium) time frame, whether we are referring to the next 2-4 years or even preparation/considerations for a longer time frame like 4-12 years.

I think all altcoins have always been intertwined with bitcoin, the simplest evidence is their unavoidable dump each time bitcoin price goes down. But the degree of it has changed multiple times in the past.

For example in early days where people were mostly buying shitcoins using bitcoin, their pump and dumps affected bitcoin positively and negatively in that order. People bought bitcoin with fiat (contributing to its rise) and used it to buy shitcoins then they got dumped so they sold them for bitcoin and sold bitcoin to exit specially if bitcoin was the one causing the shitcoin dumps hence contributing to bitcoin drop itself.

Then the option to buy shitcoins directly with fiat got popular and the degree of their effect decreased as people were using bitcoin less to go in and out of shitcoins but then the exchanges started enforcing a lot of KYC and started having other issues so we went back to before.

In any case the effects were always there. For example I think it was 2017 when a shitcoin exchange got hacked and millions of dollars worth of shitcoins which included ETH was stolen and caused their crash. That dump created some sell pressure on bitcoin too even though it had nothing to do with bitcoin directly.

Exactly.. there are all kinds of dumb (or maybe just incomplete) theories involving aspects of public sentiment.. .and I am not even proclaiming that public sentiment is not a factor... even though in this current line of thought when we were talking about questions or correlation, we started out that area of inquiry by focusing on the purported stock market correlation and some of the supposed market analysis experts consider a lot of correlation to exist with the NASDAQ - which I consider to be a whole bunch of bullshit.. in line with it is correlated until it is not.. so in that sense I will agree that all kinds of correlation does exist between bitcoin and various macro-market dynamics - including what the FED does and blah blah blah.. but if you put too many of your chips on those kinds of analyses, you are going to be all fine and dandy, until the short period of time that bitcoin steps up again (just like it did between September 2020 to April 2021 when BTC stepped up from $10k to $60k and then went back to being correlated again.. so you kind of got fucked if you did not prepare for that 5-6x or so short term step up of BTC relatively speaking.. and we have seen those kinds of step ups on a number of occasions in BTC and then subsequent returns to short-term correlation).  

I think that part of my ongoing proclamations that I have trouble explaining what might have happened in the short run, even though there could be some matters that are more dominant than others, and some factors - such as the Kwon Do dumping could end up pushing the BTC price over the edge (to the downside in this case)... yet frequently, that kind of a dumping will only have as much chance to work if it is done at a kind of opportune time... so then there might be some questions about whether the amount of cascading of the BTC price to the negative (and also other projects/coins in the space) that happen could allow for some additional negative events to become more effective before the BTC price sufficiently recovers and enough support builds up to cause further dumps or even FUD spreading to become less effective.  

Surely in recent days, there have been some concerns about whether the various failures of Luna/Terra/Kwon Do could end up contributing to showing some weaknesses in a variety of other shitcoin projects/coins - and some of the various coins/projects have intertwined themselves more with bitcoin than others, and even if we might not be proclaiming any of those various shitcoin matters to be leading the bitcoin price dynamics, there could be some short-term impacts when some further vulnerabilities are found in some of the various shitcoins - and surely even sentiment of the public could end up playing into the effectiveness of those kinds of shitcoin dumps - even if they might not have been the primary driving forces.

This reminded me of the dumbest "scientific" paper I have ever seen in my life about the correlation between bitcoin price and number of posts on social media. The author was basically suggesting that if you post too many tweets on twitter for example, the price would pump and if you stop posting it would dump

I have seen variations of "correlation" talking points coming from all kinds of people, including institutional investors making the same kind of nonsense claims.

Even the way that you frame the issue pooya87, seems to be quite inadequate - because pretty much the whole time that I have been in bitcoin, I have been hearing various kinds of correlation claims (and yeah, you and I have been in bitcoin for a similar amount of time).

I would not even deny that considerable amounts of correlation does not exist, especially if we are either making short-term assessments or attempting to act as if we are making long term assessments without accounting for the actual data.

In other words, sure of course there can appear to be all kinds of correlation in the short term and even we might anticipate some short term factors that will cause bitcoin's price to move but if we zoom the fuck out, we should appreciate that other things are going on in bitcoin, including the nature of its difference as an asset class and also the fact that early stages of adoption is going to contribute towards bitcoin having way more UPside price pressures (and moves) as compared to various mature asset classes/currencies because in part it takes way the hell less capital to move bitcoin UP as compared to various other mature asset classes/currencies.

I am not even sure how productive it would be for me to go into various details regarding how some specific time (or incident) might be pointed out as a starting point to compare bitcoin's prices to other asset classes/currencies because surely some time periods are more representative than others and may well help to illustrate different points about price movement that might have occurred within a certain timeframe that might represent some kind of a point that is being attempted to be made.  Sometimes folks are really disingenuine with the way they present information because they are trying to make certain kinds of points, so then they select their data to argue their various points... and we see this all the time with nocoiners, lowcoiners, bitcoin naysayers, shitcoin pumpeners, and some other similar classes of persons who frequently will start their analysis of bitcoin's supposed comparative price performance in terms of starting with whereever bitcoin had peaked in its price and then arguing their points from there.. and surely sometimes there can be some valid points that are made by starting with the peak, but frequently the various comparative price performance claims are not really trying to get to any kind of meaningful assessment regarding what might be happening in the world that is helpful for people to figure out how they might consider their own allocation into bitcoin.

For sure, there are likely ways to measure bottoms that ends up being more helpful than measuring tops, but even the measurement of bottoms or starting from bottoms can lead some disingenuine posters into skewing data to mislead and misrepresent any kind of attempt at fair analysis and assessments of bitcoin as compared to other asset classes/currencies.


Surely, it is not easy to know about the various factors to attempt to explain causation - even though I really have tendencies to get aggravated when single cause explanations seem to get more emphases than deserved... and so in that regard, all time there seems to be quite a few things going on that likely contribute to bitcoin price dynamics in a variety of ways, and maybe the short to medium term noise is less important than figuring out larger and broader trends - but in threads like this one, guys may well be striving to figure out various current causal matters in order that they might have greater success to time dips or to figure out if they might need to change some course of action that they have planned for either attempting to accumulate more bitcoin - if that might be amongst the most relevant of goals that we are attempting to discuss in this thread (sure Wind_Fury mentioned this goal, too).


I still believe that persons who are engaged in ongoing BTC accumulation are going to still have a variety of circumstances that vary in terms of each of their personal factors, so we should not be assuming everyone who might benefit from discussion of these various correlation (or lack thereof) points is going to be coming at the matter from the same angle.... whether we are referring to how long the person may have already been in bitcoin (including considering how much they may have already screwed up in their historical BTC accumulation strategies/practices) or even if some guys might be new to bitcoin and either coming in with ONLY having a cashflow or they might have a lump sum that is invested in other areas (or maybe already in cash) that they are attempting to figure out some kind of short-to-medium term BTC accumulation strategies and how to possibly best manage and think about the balancing of their circumstances.

So yeah it is not only the management of cashflow that is potentially at issue Wind_FURY.. any of the other personal factors could cause guys to think about the BTC accumulation matter differently, and I suppose it does not hurt to list them to include other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, view of bitcoin as compared to other assets, time, skills and abilities to learn, strategize, tweak along the way that might include reallocating from time to time or even trading, the use of leverage or the employment of various financial instruments - and for sure, I am way more an advocate of getting personal basics into place before even attempting to use more complicated methods such as trading, leverage and/or financial instruments - even though each of us has to consider our own circumstance in term of those more sophisticated ways of approaching bitcoin investing and accumulation.


There's always some risk if you get too tied up into making fractal comparisons, even if you might end up getting your prediction correct, you are likely going to get yourself into some kind of psychological or financial pickle (if you have not already) if you assign higher probabilities than they deserve to these kinds of patterns that you see (whether unique to your own shower visions or you are engaging in some kinds of kumbaya coordinations with some of your soulmates..   )


There are a lot of ways that correlation can be raised in current times, and also has been historically raised.. and perhaps none of us really disagree that the correlation claims tend to be misleading and self-selected so I am having some troubles appreciating how much they might need to be explored here.. even though correlation does seem to be an evergreen topic that seems to have quite a bit of evergreen validity because there is likely a decent amount of truth regarding those kinds of claims in the short term, even if they might even be conclusive that bitcoin is going to stay correlated in this particular part of whatever cycle bitcoin is in.. but at the same the correlation dynamics would not be something to completely ignore, either, even if there are tendencies to raise those kinds of questions in ways that could mislead folks in terms of their own psychological and/or financial preparations.


I doubt that the crash or correction that we did experience was inevitable, even though after it happens, we can see that it happened, so it is not like we can change history.

There are a lot of times in bitcoin that purported BTC price gurus proclaim that we "have to" go down before we go up, and then it does not happen, so guys end up getting fucked because they failed/refused to sufficiently/adequately prepare for UP.  I have seen it a lot of times.


I would not even presume that they have the coins that they claim to have - so in that regard, some of those various funds could end up getting fucked royally if the BTC price ends up moving against them (meaning that the BTC price moves up 100% or 200% or even some other variation that might even be quite lower) and they ONLY have less than 10% of the coins that they claim to have.. They get fucked and maybe any clients using their service gets fucked too if the company is not solvent enough to cover their misrepresentations.  

By the way, another thing is that they are allowed to cover in dollars, so they may well not even be required to hold any bitcoin, but their having had followed their various legal obligations might not relieve them or their clients when they end up not having enough capital to cover BTC price moves against their degenerate gambling that ends up not working out... even account for a hypothetical that they are claiming to have $1billion in bitcoin, but they only have $100 million?  and of course, there are funds that may well be playing with way higher numbers than that.

I suppose that part of my point is that we cannot necessarily presume that financial tools that allow for downward manipulation of the BTC price are going to facilitate them being as successful as they may have been historically with other assets, especially accounting for the bearer asset component to bitcoin that is pretty easy to claim possession (even though clients who use some of the more sophisticated financial instruments might contract away their rights to claim possession of the bitcoin, not everyone with exposure to bitcoin through such instruments is going to enter into such contracts that do not allow them to verify the asset holdings that any company claims to have).

The network has been chugging along, producing block after block for more than 10 years. I'm confident that it has reached a phase that it simply cannot be "killed" anymore. The longer Bitcoin exists, the longer its life expectancy. The Lindy Effect.

Their narrative during the next bear cycle will be, "how low can we buy the DIP", not the same narrative during the last bear cycle which was, "Bitcoin market crashed, it is dying". Do you see the evolution of their perception?

That's one way of looking at it , but these are the big boys of the markets that can make or break our crypto markets...especially if they hodl a huge amount of coins, and once they hit the sell button they simply put more bearish pressure on the markets but with this Dip, means new entrants into the markets as people have been waiting for cheaper coins!

It should not bother you what other plebs like us say. Our only "problem" is where to find more work/money and when to deploy capital to buy DIPs, not whether there's a correlation with legacy markets or not. If there's a correlation, then there's a correlation, but our "problem", the good problem, remains the same.

What's currently happening to Bitcoin is the same bull/bear pattern. 2018 is 2022, 2019 is 2023, 2020 is 2024 - the year of the next halving.

Back to the "correlation", you will understand why it's being considered if you follow macro-economic events especially in the United States and China.


I think Luna shenanigans were like the last straw that helped break the strong resistance ($30k) that might not have happened any other way.