Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 477. (Read 123090 times)

In most cases people loss out the opportunity to buy Bitcoin even when the market had given them opportunity to buy, though with the Bitcoin price movement consolidating nothing is certain for sure but one could actually utilize the opportunity by structuring his portfolio in such a way that if for example you have $20k total on your portfolio you could actually invest half of it at this current price because you have no idea if Bitcoin will continue the dipp or not so with this you no that even if the market doesn't get to your targeted point and move back up your are likely covered with the first entry instead of losing out completely. So These diagram display the need to strategize on taking advantage of the dip and fly to the moon in the near future.

Therefore, it is important for us to know and plan from the beginning about good financial management so that conditions like this do not bother you too much.
I have said before that bitcoin investment will be better if we budget in the monthly income we have with a few percent aside as a form of consistency if doing DCA in other words the view of buying with "more money we have" is slightly changed in this case so that we know the expenses that we will determine to do DCA.
Regardless of whether DCA is done per day / per week / per month, we have a fixed budget so that it can be used as an initial calculation.
With this condition, apart from us being able to know how much budget we spend, we also know that the income we have from the salary will not make it difficult for us to do DCA because there is already a fixed budget that we determine.

Maybe this sounds a little imposing because we are cutting some monthly budgets but as long as it doesn't bother you and you are not burdened by the income from your salary being cut then I think it's fine and I always do something like this every month.

These may be arguments about semantics, and even though the whole idea might seem a bit trivial, there could be ways that guys go wrong because they take the ideas of consistency and persistency in the wrong direction.

It seems that the idea of consistency first came up in the context of either setting DCA orders on a regular basis and for a regular amount, whether that might be daily, weekly or monthly.  Another way that it came up was in terms of buying on dips or even setting ladder increments, and the example was if you had $1,200 and if you were to set that for buying on dips.. would there be advantages in terms of setting 4 orders equally at $300 each, or might there be advantages in varying them.

If you are talking about how to reach a goal over a whole year, and then having variance in terms of ways that the goals are met, then you seem to be talking about being persistent to make your end of the year goal, but you might not follow consistent practices to reach the goal.. so if you have a $1,200 that you want to invest into bitcoin for the whole year, you could divide that into $100 per month, or maybe around $25 per week even though you would end up at $1,300 if you were to buy all of the 52 weeks of the year, so you could adjust that down to $23.08 in order to stay in a $1,200.16 budget for that year.

Consistency might be to keep investing $23.08 every week no matter what, which thereby would make that weekly buy a priority and maybe that money had already been somewhat set aside in order that it does not cause cashflow issues, so any flexibility that would thereby be needed might come from some other place in the budget..

And, don't get me wrong, I am not even devaluing the ideas of consistency and persistency because sometimes if someone is wanting to reach certain goals they need to set priorities, so they still likely have to set their goals in a a kind of realistic way in which they are able to carry out the goals - and so if the person does not have an adequate emergency fund, then s/he might have had set too aggressive of BTC accumulation goals and they might need to be adjusted downwardly in order to cause them to be more realistic.


I have done all of the things that I talk about, and sure many times they are going to be tailored to the specific situation and depending on what stage someone is in his/her bitcoin journey, so if you are in an accumulation phase, you could be in early, middle or late accumulation which might affect how you might prioritize, and then perhaps if you have been accumulating bitcoin for a while, you may transition to a kind of maintenance and/or liquidation stage.. I consider that I did my most aggressive accumulation between late 2013 and late 2014, and by the end of 2014, I was starting to think that I had enough BTC, but at that time, I could not help myself to continue to accumulate in 2015 and 2016.. and sure I have been accumulating after 2016 too, but not as aggressively as I had done in that first year... and another thing is that even as early as 2015, I was already thinking that I was transitioning into a maintenance stage, but BTC accumulation is not excluded from that, even though some of the priorities and urgencies change.

Another thing is that many normal people (normies) might not be able to go from BTC accumulation to maintenance as quickly unless they might already be starting with an investment portfolio, and I had already largely had been building my investment portfolio for more than 20 years prior to getting into bitcoin, so it was likely easier to reach accumulation targets based on those kinds of considerations.. and it is my sense that many normies still might need to take nearly 20 years to build their BTC holdings, but surely BTC price appreciation could help to cut those BTC accumulation timelines down a lot more than might have had been the case in traditional investments.  Of course, there are no guarantees that screw ups will not end up happening and there still may well be needs for the BTC accumulation times to take as long as they would have had taken through traditional methods... and there are also no guarantees that goals will be reached.. but surely a good thing if goals are actually able to be reached and even surpassed.


Yes.  I repeat myself sometimes.


Maybe I am quibbling with some of the semantics.. .. but I want to say that even though I am selling on the way up and buying on the way down, I am neither claiming to be trading nor selling enough BTC that I have any preferences that the BTC price goes back down..

so personally, I have been saying that the main strategy to attempt to build your BTC stack is to engage in various BTC accumulation strategies until you reach such a level that you are way overly-allocated into BTC and then at that point, you have more options and you may well be in a position to consider selling small amounts of BTC on the way up.;.but you still have to be more careful with any of those kinds of strategies, especially the earlier that you are in your BTC accumulation journey.

Accordingly, I don't consider selling of BTC to be a BTC accumulation strategy or even a good strategy to even be attempting to increase BTC holdings, even though it could be considered a kind of insurance strategy in the case that BTC prices were to end up going back down.... even though the amounts are greatly biased in favor of UP..

Let's say for example I were to have 10 BTC (and I am not even saying this is not a fictitious number), so maybe if the BTC price were to go down $5k from $30k to $25k, in this example, the overall value of my BTC holdings would have had dropped from $300k to $250k, and maybe I might have ended up buying back anywhere between $500 and $2k worth of BTC depending on how aggressively my buy back orders had been set.  Accordingly, what I am saying is that the selling amount and the buy back amounts are not so great to overall affect the overall BTC portfolio size that continues to be heavily biased towards holding BTC.. and a perhaps a kind of maintance of the BTC portfolio size rather than either accumulation and/or liquidation.

It could be the case that I am engaging in a kind of complicated semantics in the way that I am describing some of these selling on the way up dynamics and how those proceeds are used to buy back.. even though to me it seems problematic for people to consider selling BTC to be BTC accumulation strategy - and this thread is meant to be mostly directed towards the ideas of BTC accumulation and holding..  not selling.


The more that we talk about this example, the more unrealistic I start to consider it to be.  Sure, guys do end up coming up with goals regarding how many BTC that they want to accumulate within a certain time period, but part of the reason that the goal seems to be unrealistic is partly due to its being denominated in a salary that you are likely earning in another kind of a currency (not BTC) so there is a cause for way greater variability, so even if you might say that I plan to invest $30k into bitcoin within the next year, then you know how much dollars that you can put in and you know how much income that you have coming in... but yeah, sure maybe it is still be doable to suggest how much BTC to accumulate per month, so long as the amount is not at the upper limits of your capabilities and you have a sufficient amount of cushion contained within the  amount that you are expecting to accumulate each month.

Well of course, the journey as they enter a field will definitely lead them to a process that they have to go through, and with that, there will definitely be a lot of knowledge that they encounter there. Process is a journey that will lead us to development. Now I agree with you that with the development of this very fast era requires us to keep going and balance everything according to today's digital age. When it comes to cryptocurrency I think this is a space that is quite difficult for us to understand, and maybe only a few of them are able to walk to achieve success in the world of cryptocurrency, and I think in the process of living the world of cryptocurrency it really requires seriousness, and it's true as you say that they will take a long time to be able to adapt or fully understand the world of cryptocurrency. If they are willing to learn and have high enthusiasm then I think they will have a chance to succeed in the world of cryptocurrency.
Well that's right, experienced people and also people who have knowledge are certainly very different. someone who has experience he has felt it directly about various processes or difficulties or whatever is there and it will be very different from people who only have knowledge. There are many thick books that we can read to gain knowledge but you will not be able to get direct experience if you just read.

Yes, I agree with this, the knowledge we have is inseparable from the experiences we have. Or even experiences that make us wiser in determining something that we did not encounter before. Moreover, we are talking in a space where we are led to be able to continue to develop in seeing certain situations. The cryptocurrency space, especially bitcoin, is something that we cannot understand with a quick process, and I am sure outside of me many investors have grown along with their experience while in this space.

Sometimes in situations where we have to choose, the person with knowledge will be different from the person with experience. I mean, experienced people will see what they have experienced before, and I think that's a +.

It is very common that you make a plan and within a certain period of time you implement that plan but in between some time your actions to implement that plan are erratic. It is normal for this to happen in terms of personal needs or family needs. I think the big thing is whether we have been able to implement our plan on time. In one month I may need a lot of money and in that month I must deposit some less amount than the specified amount but in the next month when my need of money is less but the amount I kept less in the previous month will be kept in the same amount in the next month as well as the money of the previous month. I can keep in this case that my needs are met and my plans are implemented at the right time.

That's what I mean by flexibility, I feel that even with a well thought out plan, sometimes I still have to change things up a bit because of certain situations that make me have to. It's funny that the DCA that we do has to be sacrificed by selling it like you said. It's better for me to do other things, including allocating the money that I should have used for DCA for unavoidable or urgent needs as I said earlier.


we can set an amount at the beginning, but in practice it can be bigger or smaller than the plan we thought of at the beginning. I'm not emphasizing just when I have an unexpected problem, but I can apply it when I have some money that I can allocate. For example, in a week we plan $100 per week, but at times we can only allocate $10 per week (or a smaller amount). And in other situations I can allocate more than $100 a week (or a larger amount). And that is something that is comfortable (in my opinion), not only can we be consistent, but we also apply flexibility well.


In any case, experience is invaluable, and this is no exception when it comes to realizing the points I mentioned earlier. I didn't realize it right away either, but it has been a long process for me to be able to say things like this.
And if we talk about risk, or the consequences of what we do, then it is very clear that everything has that risk, whether it is a small risk or a big risk. and again it is experience that helps us determine whether the risk is worth taking or we should avoid it.

Planning have an ultimate goal which is the target. In the example you gave which is accumulating 1 BTC in 12 months, the target is 1BTC and the process of achieving that is the plan. The process is not cast in stones as there can be unforseen circumstances, such as you mention,  that could make you adjust a little. But as long as the target is achieved, to me the plan worked. You cannot say because something happened along the line and you made some adjustments to counterbalance it, then you are not consistent in following the plan. Even in economis, for every law propounded, there is always the clause: "other things being equal".


You are absolutely correct and that is what Nwada001 seems to be mixing up. By definition, persistence means pushing through when obstacle arises while consistency means building and following a process, that is repetitive in nature, in order to achieve a target.
Putting it together with respect to his example, it is persistence that is needed to sustain the plan even in the midst of challenges. If I want to accumulate 1BTC in a year with my monthly Salary, and I decide to set aside say 50% of it monthly to achieve that, if perhaps along the line I got another cash from other source that is up to the 50% and decided to double the amount of buying for that particular month, we cannot say I did not follow my plan again. In this case, the plan just got a boost. The target is always the goal while the time can vary a bit.

DCA planning and timing are vital in our journey into achieving success in our bitcoin investment,  this model have taught a lot of investors a maximum level of lessons and also helped to build knowledge on how to study the market to take advantage of every market condition, persistency in your  DCA vs timing are the roadmaps to arriving at a positive destination on the long term base,  and at such,  to be at a safer side during such period,  you need to adjust higher your buy the DIP and HODL more Bitcoin along the way down since at that level you will have opportunities to buy at the low price.

And also apply the DCA at the top which is to exchange from Bitcoin to the USDT and hold more dollars when the price is at the top,  wait for the price to touch down again and buy back.
But such a model also has its own risk and that is why sometimes as an investor you make some adjustments in both your capital holdings and time adjustments.

You have abled to pound the whole definitions and differences nicely in my mind because now I totally understand what makes DCA strict one and fancy one. Totally got the idea and thanks for the easy explanation too. Really appreciate.

PS: just thinking the advice like the three options you mentioned in the second scenario which are Lump sum, DCA and buying on Dips. I mean no offense, but do you also follow these same norms of investing. Means, aren't you are sharing VIP tips to everyone.

Got it.
I already got this point as you explained it with examples in this same reply, Now I understand what strict, soft or hybrid DCA means.
Yeah, I was also looking for an article to read more explanation about the graph but sad I did not find any so I think sharing it might help but still some explanation is must for people like me. Thanks a lot, to you for helping for solving confusions.

Not wrong with your opinion exactly how to keep consistent accumulate in daily day or weekly for investing in Bitcoin, not all investor have the same abilities actually after pandemic covid 19 and right now I face with recession era, have much debt have to pay when cut off my salary during pandemic and as possible keep consistent spent few percent of my salary for accumulating in bitcoin and my debt payment. I don't think problem with small or bigger amount but consistency needed if want earn profit one day later with our investment keep accumulate bitcoin in daily day.

Right now, all money receiving from side job I use for accumulating bitcoin every day and most thanks full since bitcoin drop around $16k I have accumulate and more profitable if sell today but keep holding until bitcoin touch higher price above $60k.

You've raised a valid point worth considering, but I still find myself agreeing with oduhu. He mentioned that consistency lies in following the plan. For instance, if the plan is to accumulate $1000 worth of BTC by year-end, and I achieve this goal each year using the DCA strategy, then I am consistent. The specific methods I use to reach that goal within the year might vary due to trends or economic factors, but the important part is maintaining the consistency of achieving that $1000 worth of BTC annually.

With that example that you gave Nwada001, there could be adjustments of the timeline in order to accommodate that some circumstances had changed, so maybe there is a realization that the goal might take 14, 16 or 18 months rather than the initial 12 months might not have been as realistic as it had been originally thought to be.

Persistence and consistency are also two differing concepts.

I get your point, but I don't see consistency as just following your plan, as plans can be followed in different ways. Let me say, for instance, that I have a plan to accumulate 1 Bitcoin before the end of one year, and initially I strategize to buy another 0.08335 before the end of every month. In the first two to three months, I was able to achieve that, but because of some kind of personal issue, you decided to shift out the amount you want to accumulate this month, but with the belief that you will be able to gather more than you plan for the next month so that you can cover up the balance of last month.

In such a case, I don't see that as consistency, as I view consistency as the process of doing a particular thing constantly, nonstop, until the purpose of that thing is achieved without even bridging any of the set-out plans along the way.

I agree consistency is rather simple to say than to practice even for folks who have drafted out a perfect plan towards getting a certain amount of bitcoin to their wallet but in all it still boils down to how disciplined you are in achieving your goals because you might have drafted  out your plan but if there is no discipline then your goals and targets will just be a mere speculation as to same fate with bitcoin enthusiasts and the price of BITCOIN.

Some of those pro-lump sum arguments presume too much about people having lump sums that are available and able to be invested at strategic times, and I have certainly had a lot of arguments with many members about these kinds of comparisons, and one area of my arguments tend to hone upon the fact that people likely are much better off to do DCA both in the sense that they don't have lump sums of money available and if they try to fuck around with waiting or timing their investments in order to carry out lump sums, then they would be more likely to spend too much time waiting and spend less time putting money into bitcoin.

Sure once they have already established a bit of a bitcoin stash over 2-5 years, then maybe they can start to let off on the DCA and attempt to be more strategic in terms of timing their buys, whether that would be considered buying on dips or lump sum buying.

And, let's revisit some variation of the example that I had given earlier.  Let's say that someone had been buying bitcoin for 18 months and employing some variations of DCA and perhaps some variations of that, and maybe during those 18 months they had been spending about $100 to $300 per month (so maybe an average of $200 per month), so that would mean that they had already invested about $3600 into BTC.

If such a person all of a sudden got some kind of an extra cash flow that is $1,200 dollars, then that person is going to have a lump sum that is then available to him/her and s/he is going to have to decide between the 3 categories regarding how to divide it up, and I think that the default position would be to divide it equally into $400 for each category - however, no one can really decide if the default position of dividing it equally would be the best or if some other way of dividing it might be preferable - so likely more details are going to need to be known, and who is going to know those details besides the individual (and by the way view of what the bitcoin price is going to do happens to ONLY be one of the criteria that individuals should be attempting to account for when making those kinds of BTC accumulation strategy choices).


There is nothing to disagree with in your statement, and part of the reason that bitcoin remains an asymmetric bet to the upside is that whatever amount that you choose to invest into bitcoin, the most that you can lose is all of it, but there are also potentials that you may well be able to profit from it.. and even earn more than you would investing in other places and there are also quite grand upside possible scenarios that are not guaranteed, but there is nothing wrong with the conclusion that bitcoin is amongst the best of asymmetric bets that are currently wide-spread available (if not the best). 

Each of us has a choice whether or not to have some kind of bitcoin allocation and we also have choices about how much of a stake to take, within our own capacities to accomplish such stake without overdoing it in such a way that we end up losing it because we had over done it.

We know that there continue to be an overwhelmingly large number of people who either have no bitcoin stake or a very low bitcoin stake, and that's surely there choice, even if many of us already into bitcoin and studying bitcoin speculate that more and more people are likely going to be getting into bitcoin, whether they currently want to or currently think it is a good idea or not... which is likely to ongoingly reward those who came to those kinds of decisions and made those kinds of investment choices sooner.. and sure it sounds like pumping some kind of Ponzi scheme.. even though it the truth of the matter with a sound money and scarce asset like bitcoin, the earliest of adopters are likely to be rewarded and they likely don't even necessarily need to have super high stakes in bitcoin in order to likely disproportionately benefit from getting into bitcoin...

so even though there are no guarantees, it is good to recognize and appreciated the asymmetric bet nature of bitcoin and likely to emphasize accumulating it rathe than strategizing and/or figuring out points in which to sell it (once you got some of it). .. but hey everyone is free to make their own choices regarding how to think about these kinds of matters and how much of a stake, if any, to take into bitcoin including points in which they might consider selling it.. which might end up being too much too soon.. so careful with those kinds of actions, once you already are accumulating BTC.


In the last day since I made that responsive post, I had been thinking about my own practices over the years, and there surely have been times and areas in which I am either buying or selling (setting ladders) that I am consistent in terms of the amounts and also in terms of the increments, but a lot of factors can come to play that cause us to reconsider the extent to which consistency (which might be a kind of default set up) is actually helping us to balance out where we happen to be at any particular time in our bitcoin accumulation journey or even if we might be further down the road in more of a maintenance location.

Sometimes we might be attempting to recreate some kind of balance that might have come from something that we did.. maybe we sold too much or we bought too much or we might have money on various exchanges and in cold wallets, and we might be engaging in practices to move from one location to another, so sometimes we can sell at one location and buy at another location in order to attempt to achieve our balances, which also might have arbitrage opportunties, yet I am not even necessarily referring to taking advantage of arbitrage opportunities but instead moving value from one place to another.  I am a bit reluctant to get too far off topic here.. so maybe I will just leave it at that for now, unless someone might want an example in order to better understand these kinds of rebalancing ideas... that might be employed with DCA, buying on dips and lump sum strategies... 


That happens to me quite a bit... and that is one of the advantages of already projecting out your cashflows in advance so you can see exactly how much you may have allocated for certain things, and if you have some flexibilities in your incoming or outgoing amounts, you will already know from which areas that you might take from first, second third, and then pretty soon you might have had some plans about some amounts that were strict, but then you realize that it is better that you reduce your DCA or maybe even bring it down to zero for a certain period of time than to resort to some other less preferable actions, which might be selling some asset that you do not want to sell, including but not limited to BTC... there should be an order to these things that you have mostly already thought through and you have some ideas about how flexible you are able to be in light of how well you have planned it out and maintained some flexibilities in your system.


Exactly.  You can have strictness and flexibility going on at the same time... even if you have set aside $400 per month and/or $100 per week for BTC buys, you might already know that there is going to be some variance in that amount, but then you might even tell yourself that "no matter what (within reason)" I am going to at least buy $10 per week.


These are not easy to know in the moment and frequently it takes experience to better understand boundaries (or thresholds) that we might have, and if we might have gone too far in something that goes from being aggressive and/or assertive and into the lands of gambling.  .., and it can sometimes be o.k. to cross over into some places that we might not want to go, but we have to realize also whether we might still be able to achieve some of the same desires for risks or whatever, but just take a bit of a smaller position size for that particular part of what we might be trying to do.. for example, we might go over budget on something or we might even decide to be overly whimpy on something... but if we think about why we are doing it and what are the consequences, then at least we have potentially been able to get some of the benefits of modifying what we had thought that we were going to do, but to modify it in such a way that accounts how much of a position we using in order to take those actions.

Planning is the first stage of anything that is associated with consistency. It is following the plan that is called consistency.   DCA is itself a plan and following your DCA is the consistency. Many people have developed many additions to DCA but I see these as something that can lead to confusion because there are high chances of emotion creeping in when you continue to vary your DCA with so many additions. Ever since I learnt about DCA, I have witnessed a lot of improvement in my approach to building my portfolio. First my emotions are in check, greed level watched and I am no more perturbed by the price since I know that this is a buying season.

I am glad I have transtioned to the state of trading the plan because many people actually make good plans but the implementation is where the problem comes in.

Basically, what you guys are discussing here is, either an aged person should learn new skills, or adopt new technology. We tend to have these types of thoughts because we know they are at the end of their age and who knows how many days they have left. But I have a strong belief about we should not think that because even we do not have the full surety that either we are going to live another day or not. But still, we wake up and try to make efforts to make a good living for ourselves and for our loved ones.

Point is it does not matter either one person is aged or just a young one they should learn new skills; they should adopt new technologies like BTC. Meaning in the journey of experiencing new technologies people always started to make money so there is not point remains of discussing either one enters BTC to make money while lesser enter BTC to experience it. TBH, who enters it once and experience it then it must have become difficult for them to leave it.

I just experienced an example of such young and aged people, I actually taking some course of online money making and in one of the curse two people one is around 17 years old, and one is 75 years old, and they both are learning the skill from the same teacher. Means sometimes it looks so strange but those who have passion to learn new things should not worry about their end days. I mean to say they should not think we will die tomorrow so left the option of investing in BTC as we might not be there to get benefit from the profit. Ok if you want to get benefit then donate the profit to any charity made from BTC. How will one do that. He could write a will or anything similar or could hire a Lawer for that.

Most people do not really know how easy DCA makes life to be in the aspect of buying bitcoin. The greatest challenge people have about bitcoin investment is knowing when to buy and when to sell. DCA removes this burden and allow you do this things seamlessly. I used to be very emotional about investing in bitcoin but with DCA, I am like a robot... only following the rules as I set them. This save me energy and time and help me better manage my resources. It also make me not to buy under compulsion or put myself into pressure as regards to other things of life.


Are you by any means saying that you plan to sell all your bitcoin next year if the halving result in new ATH? If yes, that means you really do not believe in the longevity of bitcoin. I wouldn't want to believe that is what you will do because if you look at historic data of bitcoin, selling at every new ATH would have resulted in one missing out on the bigger moves because there is no guarantee that you will buy again after selling and even if you happen to buy again, you may not buy the quantity you had previously.

What I have seen many people suggest is to sell some proportions only when you have seen remarkable increase in profit and this sell should be strictly based on needs because it is better to keep your funds in something reliable like bitcoin than saving same in the bank to be eaten up by inflation. I agree with this theory of selling just small fraction strictly based on needs. Anyways, I may not know what your plans are or if you have a strategy that you are following, so I can only make suggestions and leave you to make the decision.

The beauty of forum like this is that it gives us the opportunity to share ideas and learn what others are doing, maybe we can apply some in our daily lives.

Making diversification of the money you would have invested and hodl in bitcoin on other needs more urgent my not be perfect decision enough except if what you're going after is more profitable than bitcoin investment as the moment which i may doubt, to make it more simpler than before, we can see the reason why it has been always suggested that DCA should be the best strategy to use when accumulating, there's more of advantage in using it than you will have to rush in for an investment at once, this prepares you on a ground that allows an opportunity to earn and minimize loss, also you will be able to attend to other things in demand without having to pressurized yourself on single entity while making a decision, just have other additional alternatives, invest buying the dip, hodl and release when time is due for doing so, bitcoin is for profitable investment if we take advantage of holding.