Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 478. (Read 123847 times)

No one knows who that address belongs to, but we know the purpose is obviously as an investment, or probably a store of value? What whale would accumulate such a high amount of Bitcoin to merely "trade" them. I believe the futures market would be more suitable for that. It's a "mystery".

BUT it might also be coincidence?

 

Isn't the SEC's decision over BlackRock's ETF scheduled next week? I believe it is.

Being able to accumulate sufficient capital is an important issue, but it is very difficult to determine where we will stand during this accumulation. Therefore, it may be a better move to make savings by investing. When we don't invest, we can spend the money we save on different things. Sometimes we buy things that we can't control ourselves and don't need, this delays our investment.

It makes sense to me to act with the understanding that the best savings is investing.

Yeah sure, always waiting to accumulating enough capital to start investment is sometimes very unwise because the more you think you're saving that's the more expenses are coming and before one realized it has taking years but still not enough capital to start with so is actually good to start  with something even as little at least by investing bit by bit before you realize you have gone far also there are people that started the same way and now they have gone far.

Where are you headed mate? your speaking bout those who buys the dip and wants to be millionaires in a week and are obviously disappointed. But only few understands the future of potential hold.

The only part that worries me is running out of funds to buy more. Like seriously, I've seen this said so many times but honestly, the feeling of not having money while seeing the crypto market for down hard is brutal. You wanna buy more to invest in the long run but you don't have any funds to use for spending. Really sucks.

I am not worried but not having fun either, buying the dip then buying some more has been my modus operandi so far

I have made mistakes along the way, too, and there are surely folks who have had way better price performance than me.

I have approximated that my more than 20 years of investing prior to bitcoin (prior to late 2013) on average was only earning about 5.5% per year (there were up years and down years but the average was around 5.5%), so those were pretty standard kinds of investments and standard kinds of returns.. maybe even mediocre.. but accounting for various mistakes contained therein.

When I added bitcoin to the mix of the investments, the performance went way up, but it did not go up until right around 3 to 3.5 years later, if we account for either late 2016 or maybe into 2017... and so part of the resulting positive is that even once my BTC price performance got to a pretty decent size to outpace all of my other investments, it really did not drop below $3,124 in late 2018.. so even the lowest of corrections kept the BTC holdings in great profits.

So even if you were to attempt to plug numbers in here, you do not necessarily get to stellar performance, and of course, BTC prices went up 20x from the 2018 lows but also corrected back down to right around 5x.. and perhaps now we are around 8x to 9x from the 2018 low.. but I like to characterize my own overall BTC holdings in terms of having a cost per BTC right around $1k per BTC, and therefore it is easier to estimate the BTC part to be around 26x up, overall.


I think that I have told a variation of the story that when I first left home  and I was 17/18 years old, and I had a pretty limited cashflow, but I learned right from the start to always attempt to put away at least 10%, and I was not always very good in terms of where I put the 10% (or the amount as it added up) but over the years, it did continue to build and build and build, even though I made several mistakes along the way, and there were times when my income increased quite a bit, so I was already used to living on a tight budget, and so when my income went up, I was frequently putting aside much higher levels, like 25% to 40%.. but I had many many years of ONLY doing 10% and it still added up... just did not have any bitcoin like investments.. .and maybe I was too dumb to identify the bitcoin-like investments and I tried to stick with safer investments, and maybe I would not have had been ready for bitcoin until after more than 20 years of already investing and having had built up my investments based on mediocre performance.


Yep.  That is a good point.  We can ONLY start from where we are at, and frequently, I will say to people to get the fuck started, but frequently, people have troubles just organizing their finances enough and in such a way that they know how much they are able to invest, whether that might be 10% of their income or some other amount that better suits their situation... but hopefully they can get it to some level of minimum aggressiveness, such as 10%.. otherwise it becomes harder to make progress since we already know that investing 10% takes around 10 years just to get to 1 year's income invested. and hopefully that amount (and its interest/yield) is at least keeping up with cost of living increases (inflation of prices - deflation of the currency.. hard to get ahead, for sure).

Every big investment carries big risks. Currently Cryptocurrencies:1.8M+Cryptos listed and 660 Exchanges on CoinMarketCap. Who is the target audience? Most of them failed. Now more advanced investors can use exchanges to buy bitcoins and the advantages include faster purchase times, lower fees. Yes. This product BTC is very popular among institutional investors and many are buying and holding BTC without trading it. As you said above Bitcoin is a coin with a bright future and goals and it makes a lot of sense when you say that for now we still have time and few opportunities to buy now and most probably this is the last BTC Discount.
     

It is quite unfortunate that up till now people are still agueably resisting to buy the dip. Bitcoin is a coin with great future and purpose. the founder of Bitcoin (Satoshi nakamoto) has a bright future for Bitcoin. when Bitcoin came out, people were adamant and ague about it but on the long run it became a success from 2017 to 2022.

There was an all time high of over $65k and later dropt to $18k and raised to $30k. so there  is a tendency that it will definitely skyrocket. So now is the time to buy the dip and hold. (Satoshi nakamoto) said that Bitcoin is for the common man. But the rich took advantage of it, because poor men will always see any opportunity as scam that's why the whales bought and stuck today Bitcoin is no longer for the common man. But there is still slight opportunity to buy now and never regret.

I agree with you but one thing we most no is that investors has different agenda or objective and as such they structure there portfolio in a way that suit there investment plan, what I'm trying to say is that we have two types of investors one is short time investors and long time investors, the short time investors doesn't care about holding all he cares about is to make his profits through buying low and sell high because they are always afraid of market reversal going against them because there heart cannot withstand the pressure seeing there trade moving opposite direction so they prefer entring and exiting with any profit they made while the long time holders relax there mind they enter the market believing there portfolio will add in the future.

Totally agree with both of you. I mentioned before that a friend in my circle have some money and he asked me either I should take entry or wait for the market to come down. I suggest him to take entry but what he did waited more and now he things market will come down more. But the problem is he wanted to accumulate for longer period of time.

So I said if you really wanted to book profit when BTC will near to new ATH then you should not worry about the current market situation instead you should jump in. Well, I am also not an expert and I have told him that, maybe that's why he is not listening to me.

I learnt few new things like DCA, Lump sum and buying at dips and what actually DCA is and which is more beneficial under which circumstances (like Having big amount of money means you should do Lump Sum with some of your money and then use some of the amount for DCA and some for the dips). And I had not told him yet about my new learning. I will try to teach him what I learnt but the point is I got sad and angry too when he ignores me.

Although we all have the mentality of my friend, as we all wanted to take entry at the lowest point possible at which market could go by market, I mean BTC. I hope he will eventually understand the opportunities he is missing but I do not want that for him.

That's the point buddy
Why do we think of selling when we are already aware of the investment options. It's not just about buying and selling quickly especially when making investment and DCA commitments then it is definitely a long-term goal so regardless of the temporary gains that occur I think holding on to our goals is most important.

We have our own goals whether it is in terms of time horizon or profit multiple goals and I want something bigger than the current price so why worry about selling at the moment as the focus is still on buying.

You should be able to position yourself correctly whether you want to be a trader or an investor because these are 2 different things.
From the beginning I think the discussion remains on the condition that if we really want to be good investors then never equate trading with investing because both have significant differences so that by knowing where you want to be it will make you know what steps you will take.

On the other hand, I think altcoin trading is too broad because the current condition of the discussion is still fixated on bitcoin not altcoins.

All trader ever in position doubt and fear when investing their money in bitcoin or altcoin exactly facing moment with price dropped drastically, its nature of human being how to face with their investment happening later drop or not. But don't give up for accumulating and buying bitcoin how many possibility based on our financial having. Bitcoin and altcoin trader have strong mentality and more patience facing bad moment when bitcoin drop and keep continues reinvesting if their target with long term investment. Don't give up when looking current Bitcoin or altcoin have lower price but take it as very good opportunity by accumulating as much possible not only with bitcoin but also some potential altcoin worth for long term holding.

I wouldn't call that a miss completely because the market is still undecided for now as there are still chances for further dips. Although I was expecting the process of further dips to start yesterday following Powell's speech but it seems that did not really make the anticipated impact and this is somehow suiting for the market. However, it would have still been fine for me should the dip happened yesterday as I am already waiting to buy more around the $20k following little adjustments to my cash flow.
So, I have grown to the extent of keeping an open mind in the market to be able to respond to what the market is showing while keeping my expectations in check.

That is a good material you shared there... I never knew you had made such indepth explanation already. Thank you for sharing same free. Those who follow you will never miss road.


This is well understood and appreciated. You are so detailed about this. One thing I have also learnt from your explanation is the need to appreciate the power of little beginning. I know I had fallen into the challange of wanting to start very big before. I'm glad those days are gone. Actually, I never thought about my finances in this direction... assuming I know what I knew now, my finances would have been better managed.

There were times I had good some of monies and it never occurred to me I could actually plan and make financial projections with them as I was so focused on graduating and getting a job. Well it is not later because we have an adage  that says " anytime a man wakes up is his morning".

I like your own perspective mate, my reason of saying there is no wrong time on entring into the market to accumulating some amount of Bitcoin on your portfolio is because taking for instance when Bitcoin price was $3k and it moves from the price gradually hitting $50k, investors was still positive that even if they miss the chance of accumulating enough Bitcoin when it was chipper they will continue to buy more with the believe of going to the moon in the future because just like how Bitcoin move from $3k then and hit $50k nothing can hold it from moving more and more higher in the future.

In times of distinguished from buying when Bitcoin price was dip and when it has come up is the profit margin because you can never compare the profit of someone that buys the dipp and someone that buys when is up already but most investors do not reason that way, most times is only the short holders who just want to accumulate some amounts of Bitcoin and sell immediately if the price is up are the ones that needs to consider the price before entring,  but a long time holders do reason the market dipp but it doesn't prevent them from boosting there portfolio because they don't judge Bitcoin by it present condition but instead they focused on what will become of them in the future.

When we're discussing being confident in knowing where Bitcoin is headed, how can you feel certain when the market is always volatile in real time? Truth is nobody can be completely sure about where Bitcoin's price will go, but they can make predictions based on strong evidence.
I whole heartedly agree with you on this, The best time is always NOW, there is no best time. I literally acknowledged that this is a common advice to DCA. A lot of people are still sitting on the sidelines and are waiting for a bottom confirmation and there’s nothing wrong with that. If you’re sitting out trying to time the bottom, maybe rethink that and layer in.

Doubts and fears are very natural, and it is the nature of every human being. It is not a problem as long as we do not fall into that fear or doubt and make us never move to start collecting bitcoins in our portfolio.

It is interesting to read your words regarding "I believe that no time is wrong for an entry point to accumulation some Bitcoin" because even if that is true then an investor who buys bitcoin must hold it longer, unlike when they buy during a price decline. For example someone who buys when bitcoin hits the last ATH, then how long does it take them to be able to turn their portfolio into a profit? here requires a very strong mentality to be patient to hold it, because if not then they will be frustrated and sell it at a much cheaper price.
Not everyone can do that, especially if they're someone who doesn't have a lot of patience.

I'm happy that the website I shared will be of use to you. And really, the website you was using has only options to select only years in accumulation tab.

Calculations really were difficult but basically you were trying to explain three stages which you explained before first is buying at dips, doing DCA and lump sum. And based on different factors like what are the goals of one person to achieve with his investments and how much he is trying to hold and how much savings he has at the start. Such factors will drive him to select any of the two options (DCA or Lump Sum) and in you example he had $6k out of which he lump sum $2k and DCA $2k and saved $2k for dip. Thanks for all the explanations.

One more thing which I have learnt from your explanations is "Emergency Funds" are necessary like aggressive investing in BTC will definitely end up investor in bad situations. So, I will also keep the Emergency fund allocation in mind. Thanks a lot for all the details dear.

ha-ha, No No, I will not blame anyone because I am/will be the one who is responsible for my own acts. As I am a conscious adult, and I do know (to some extent) what might be good and what might be not. And One of my cousins used to say: "Only Listen to what other says never act upon their words instead use your own mind to make decisions." And I am using that formula in my life from very long ago.


Got the point dear, as you said, you do no need to do rebalancing because your portfolio is increasing (means you do not intend to keep your portfolio constant instead you just doing DCA and increasing it).

Got it.

I am happy you achieved your targets but after reading your reply I began to think You must be one of the top 1 richest people in the world as you have such an entrepreneur mindset, and you must have gained a lot from BTC and other diversified portfolios. One of my friends have that investing mindset, He always says do not rely on one investment or one source of income, instead we should expand our income sources. And I was like Ok, to be honest I even motivated by him to some extent. But after seeing how much you must have gain even not knowing your age, not knowing your agendas etc. etc. I am really inspired by the way you think to enhance money. And you must have a lot of patience too because many just wanted to become rich overnight.

Then you should really read them back as I will be very honest with you here, that you use a lot of words to explain things while you know could be done in lesser, but I can understand the optimism and love you have for others to learn. I pray you will grow more with that mindset.

PS: I did not read the Thread you provided till now, but I have bookmarked it and will go through it. Thanks for that too.

I think it's a different strategy and it can't be confused with DCA.
The DCA that I know is not like that although it is also one of the strategies by selling from the profit that you have from the previous purchase price but this cannot be equated with DCA because I think it is very different.

It is not wrong when we sell some and wait for the bitcoin to correct so that we can buy it at a lower price but this concept is not synchronized when talking about DCA and long-term investment.

The picture explains the fear and indecisive most investors are having on Bitcoin price movement right now, This is the fear of getting curt by Bitcoin price if depreciating more against there entry point, so I believe that's the reason why most investors are actually wanting to be sure on the Bitcoin direction before accumulating for there portfolio.

But to me I believe that no time is wrong for an entry point to accumulation some Bitcoin because is a very potential coin and the future is bright so the possibility of enjoying your investment in the future is certain but that's for long time holding because there is no way you will accumulate some Bitcoin now and expect it to sky rockets immediately.

Surely, I would not want to "make it current," and I am only attempting to fix it for the time in which I wrote it not for anything that might have happened or might not have had happened... that would be really bad, in my thinking to be engaging with those kinds of edits.

In my JJG investment ideas thread, I have been update those 4-5 opening posts with current information, and then I try to show the edits.. but it is getting a bit unwieldy.. like as if I almost need to start a new thread rather than updating those 4-5 OPs.


I would not change any post to change my predictions.. those for sure will just stay, even if I am wrong.. but surely sometimes (or maybe even frequently) it might be a bit ambiguous what someone might be predicting.. but I would not not even feel right to go back and change any of those kinds of posts that are not written clearly.. especially once a few days have past, and I almost never substantively edit a post once someone responds to it.. unless I add an edit comment at the bottom, which may or may not say when the edit was carried out by me.


I know that I have already attempted to explain this several times, and my tendency is to project out my cashflow for 6 months minimum when I was younger and financial aspects of my life were more simple or maybe up to 2 years if there are several complicated things going on in terms of variation of expenses and/or incoming cash.

If you look at your history and you also try to project the future maybe you might be able to get some kind of a solid grasp that your income might vary between $700 per month (worse case scenario) and $4,000 per month best case scenario, and the vast majority of the time you are receiving around $1,500 per month give or take $300.  You could project it all out based on the worse case scenario, but probably it would be more realistic to project it out based on the lower end of the general pattern, which would be $1,200 per month, and then perhaps you might just keep some extra reserves for times when the cash flow is less than $1,200... So if you also know that the amounts of your ability to invest into BTC are going to be vary based on these, then you should be figuring out your minimum amounts to DCA based on your projection of minimums.. whether you choose that to be the $1,200 or the $700 and then of course, you would then be able to add the higher amounts in a kind of manual basis.. or maybe you wait for the whole month to pass before you conclude how much extra that you have, which could be using the extra amounts from prior months to be budgeted into the subsequent month rather than in the month as they are happening, which has a kind of net effect of your maintaining a higher cash reserves.

There is quite a bit of flexibility in these practices, but I think that one of the main keys is trying to figure out ways to calculate based on minimums rather than mids or even averages, which seems more likely to get you into trouble and stressing during the points when you end up overdoing it when you calculate in overly optimistic ways.. related to your cash coming in and your expenses.



I was trying to give several classes of cash that comes in, which includes regular cashflow and then variations on the investment formulas and also presuming that you mostly knew what the minimum amounts of the twice a year bonuses... so of course, the more that your values are not known, then the more that you should be attempting to plug in the more conservative estimates into your regular practices and then maybe manually adding the additional amounts after you see them come in rather than your projecting of them... so there could be some categories that range between $0 and $4k for any particular month, and in those cases, you might need to be more cautious and use the $0, even though you might keep some extra cash reserves and count the $0 in a kind of conservative way that you know that you can cover based on your having had kept a cash reserves, and whether you might feel comfortable counting the $0 as $200, $500, or som e other amount, including a higher amount is within your discretion regarding how much you are trying to make sure that you do not over do your estimates in such a way that you cause yourself to have to cash out of bitcoin at a time that is not of your 100% own choosing...

It would be a tragedy if you are figuring everything out and doing everything right, but then not realize that you  are gambling because there might be no way for you to recover from some kinds of cashflow events that could end up lasting for 4-6 months and you had calculated the worse case scenario as only 1-3 months.


Just to make it clear, we are not referring to diversification into shitcoins, but instead into various other traditional asset classes such as property, equities, bonds, commodities and cash (or cash equivalents).

Other wise I think that you are correct Dimitri94.. including that someone like me was able to afford to be more aggressive in terms of how much I put into bitcoin because having those other assets was a kind of a back up security blanket. and even the diversification is not 100% going to protect you from volatility and/or even liquidation events, but there is some protections in having other kinds of investments, especially during periods of price crashes that might end up disproportionately happening in one of the assets (such as bitcoin going down 80% or so while the other investments might not have gone down even close to that much.


You do not need to diversify when you first start investing, because you will likely end up diluting your investment, and it may well take way more than 10 years to get to a point where diversification starts making sense. 

When I say that I did not diversify in the beginning, I am talking about the 80s and 90s. I probably started diversifying in the late 90s and more so in the 2000s,, so by the time I got to bitcoin in late 2013, I already had more than 25 years investing, and was diversifying in the 15 years or so preceding my getting into bitcoin, and bitcoin ended up adding one more thing that I had speculated to not to be correlated very closely to other kinds of investments that I had at the time that I got into bitcoin.

So for sure there is quite a bit of discretion regarding when diversification might start to make sense, and I had suggested that maybe you need a certain amount whether that is $10k or $20k or maybe 50% of your annual income or maybe even 1-2x your annual income.  People are not going to decide at the same points, and surely I believe that newbies are mislead into stupid ideas about the value of diversify when they hardly have shit in their investment portfolios, and they would be better off just focusing on one, two or three things (and maybe one of those is cash and another is bitcoin), and then once they get to 50%, 100% or 200% or whatever threshold that they believe makes sense, for them, then at that point, they might start to see some value in diversifying beyond those 2-3 initial categories that they choose, and again I am not referring to diversifying into shitcoins, even though some people might want to get into shitcoins, and I would caution them to not be investing more than 10% of the size of their bitcoin holdings into shitcoins... but hey people are going to do what they are going to do because shitcoins might be the only thing that they believe that they can afford and they also might think that their $10 per week needs to be diversified.. which is just dumb on the face of it to be fucking around with shitcoins when you already have a small amount, and even $100 per wek is not very much to be fucking around with shitcoins or diversifying in any other way besides bitcoin and cash.


I think that you just confused the idea to suggest that diversifying is necessary for beginners, when it likely is not... It's a dumb shitcoin talking point... that is designed to contribute towards either loss of money or dilution of bitcoin investment based on distractions.


They may or may not be diversifying depending on how much extra discretionary cash that they have to invest into things beyond bitcoin.. Businesses sometimes do need to invest in things that might be outside of their kind of business, so that might be adding too much off-topic complications to what we might be trying to discuss related to bitcoin building and accumulating.


We are not talking about selling here..except incidentally.

We are focusing on accumulation techniques and long term buying, not selling...even though I know that incidentally we are kind of crossing into a bit of selling discussion, but selling is not the thrust of what this thread is about..

When buying bitcoin you have a target and you will not make a mistake not to utililize any opportunity seen in bitcoin market, because everyone who is bitcoin billionaire today purchased bitcoin years back when bitcoin price was very low in price and hold until the price increases before they can sell their bitcoin. Everyone good investors always utililize any steps made by bitcoin. Buying at dip is where profit will be easily make and if you buy higher and sell when the price of bitcoin is low you will lose, so it's good to buy when the price is low and sell higher so that profit will be made and for you to have such you have to hold your coin and be waiting for a bullrun