Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 474. (Read 108124 times)

Bitcoin is likely to dip below $20k soon, The stocks market have been pulling up recently while Bitcoin is now acting a lot weaker than the SP500 and the stock market. So you need to trade carefully. But it's still a buying opportunity in my opinion. If NASDAQ go down 2-3% this week, Bitcoin might go for a Small Splash.

Of course, the idea of "over-investing" has not been used in precision ways, and the circumstances are going to vary in regards to how anyone might be able to consider overinvesting.

For example, let's say that hypothetical person 1 is new to bitcoin in late 2020 (let's just say 2 years ago), and at that time, s/he had $100k in his/her investment portfolio, and at that time, s/he had around $6k in savings and around $500 per month extra cashflow (that is apart from expenses and emergency fund already in place) that s/he could invest into anything, and s/he choose to invest all of this extra money into bitcoin over the next 12 months... in order to reach a $12k invested into bitcoin in 12 months and around 12% of the total value of the investment portfolio into bitcoin... and towards the end of 2021, s/he feels pretty good about his/her investment, because the bitcoin price went up and down, but was UP by the end of the year, so s/he decides to continue to invest at about $500 per month ($62.50 per week DCA and $62.50 per week set aside for buying on dips).  By the end of two years, s/he has invested around $18k into bitcoin, and maybe has ONLY accumulated around 0.6 BTC (valued at a little less than $13k), so such a person is feeling overinvested into BTC, because the target investment level was to reach 12%, but s/he had continued to accumulate BTC so s/he is invested around 18%-ish into BTC relative to the value of the total investment portfolio.

Of course, these are hypothetical numbers, so there is going to be some variance in the results and also variance in how the proportions are measured, including what ratios that such a person might invest in accordance with DCA, buying on dips and lump sum investing.  Mistakes also may well be made along the way; however, at the same, time, if such a person is NOT overly spending his her budget and easily able to pay his/her expenses and to maintain an emergency fund, then the person should not be suffering financially and/or psychologically, even if his/her BTC portfolio is NOT in profits and even though s/he continues to invest into BTC, even while BTC prices are down and even while there remains a decent amount of ongoing uncertainties regarding bitcoin's shorter term price direction.  

There are ways to frame a prudent, aggressive and assertive approach to ongoingly investing into bitcoin in terms of not being "insane" even though it is not currently measured as being in profits.. but there still seems to be decent chances that an ongoing investment into bitcoin, even during times like these will likely have decent measures, 4-10 years or more down the road especially compared with other places in which the same money could be put... and of course, there are no guarantees, and that is part of the reason why any person investing into bitcoin has to make sure that they do not over extend themselves, even if what they are doing still might be categorized as aggressive and even overinvesting into bitcoin.

And to repeat that the extent to which any person "overinvests" into bitcoin is a discretionary choice that may or may not end up paying off... even though many of us who have been into bitcoin a decently longer period of time should be able to appreciate and recognize a decent amount of value in terms of taking a somewhat aggressive and assertive approach to bitcoin so long as we have the rest of our expenses and emergency funds covered and maintained.

I believe the problem is "it's not having enough conviction" in HODLing. Over-investing + conviction = mentally insane person who can HODL in ALL kinds of market situations. Although buying during the DIPs of 2019 truly would help if you're HODLing today, it wasn't very easy during 2019, and especially during the Covid Crash of 2020. Placing your coins in cold storage will definitely help you from the temptation of selling.

For sure, I am not going to presume to know how long our current consolidation might last, if we might get lower BTC prices from here, or how far lower any such dip might go. 

You are correct Wind_FURY that this whole down market could last into 2023.. and sure it could last anywhere between another day and another 18 months, so in that regard, there can be quite a bit of uncertainty regarding how much time that any of us has to stack up on sats at these prices and potentially lower BTC prices.

Of course, many of you realize (including you Wind_FURY) that I emphasize buying rather than HODLing, and for sure HODLing would be the second best scenario in the event that you do not have any money left to buy, and I do realize, as Wind_FURY mentioned, that there are going to be quite a few current bitcoiners (HODLers/Newbies) who could well get shaken out of their coins in the coming months as long as the BTC price does not go up from here...   Yet this way of thinking about the future presumes either that BTC prices are going down from here, or the amount of up (perhaps flat) that we get from here, will not be enough to inspire confidence in continuing to HODL whatever BTC that the current HODLers happen to have... These could be signs of either being over-invested or just NOT having enough conviction in regards to having had bought BTC in recent times and likely being in the negative for a decent amount of time while bills are coming due and fear continues to linger about whether the BTC price is going to go up from here at any point in time in the near future.

On the other hand, I would imagine that a lot those who are likely to be shaken from their coins have already been shook.  In that regard, if quite a few number of newbie bitcoiners have been shaken out of their BTC, then there would not necessarily be a lot more to shake.. and the number of buyers might start to outweigh the number of sellers - in spite of the ongoing negative talk that presumes that more down is to come - and the presumptuous discussions of inevitable $13k and baloney like that.

Of course, for any of us who might have average BTC costs of more than $40k per coin, we are going to feel some anxiety, and perhaps even more insult to our position in terms of the May and June dips in the BTC price that first took us below $35k and then subsequently took us below $28k... and not just a little below those price thresholds.  In that regard, there can exist both psychological and financial trauma when the BTC price drops that far down, and we might have even felt as if some of our expectations about how low the BTC price could go had been broken by those drops in the BTC price... So some of us who might not have enough conviction about BTC are merely doing our best to just continue to HODL whatever BTC that we had, yet likely the stronger ground would be to get the fuck over it. .and to continue to buy.. yet I understand part of the problem in continuing to buy is that if we had already overly invested into BTC then we are not really able to continue to buy.

If we had not overly invested, then after 1 or 2 months of consolidation, we should be able to regroup and figure out some kind of a reasonable and prudent plan that works for our circumstances.. whether that is merely buying $10 per week.. or some other relatively smaller amount, and maybe also to set aside some of our cashflow for buying on dips and maybe even deciding how much we will buy at each price dip if the BTC price goes to such lower levels.. while at the same time realizing that further dips may or may not happen, so we have to be mentally and financially prepared that our BTC buying plan is good enough to address either scenario.

I know that so many times, Wind_FURY has proclaimed that I am coming from some kind of a privileged area to always have a plan in place to continue to buy on a regular basis and/or to be able to buy on dips, and surely any of us are more privileged if we have a cashflow and if we have a cashflow that exceeds our monthly expenses.. so the tighter our budget, the more difficulties we are going to have to justify setting aside some of our cashflow for the purposes of ongoingly buying BTC.  Furthermore, the fact that the whole economy has been getting royally fucked in a lot of places around the world, we may well have gotten pushed into a position in which we used to have extra cashflow, and we no longer have extra cashflow because either our income has gone down or our expenses have gone up.  So surely, I am not going to presume all of the possible scenarios and I will concede that there are going to be some cases in which normies are not able to set aside extra money for buying BTC and they might not even have any realistic abilities to figure out ways to further cut their expenses or to increase their cashflow.  So, in that regard, each of us has to do our best in regards to managing our BTC approach based on our assessment of our circumstances

I believe there will be many of our fellow plebs who are going to sell from now to 2023, and they will actually be the same plebs who will FOMO back, and help cause another market surge during the next bull cycle. OK, but fellow plebs, the current state of the market is indeed truly frustrating, BUT just HODL. There are people in the market who are currently accumulating Bitcoin, knowing that the risk transfer required to start the next bull cycle is happening. Don't sell to these people, be one of these people.

You need to be careful, as well, not to overly analyze (or to be overly critical) of your approach and especially, you should not be beating yourself up regarding if the BTC performance was either lower than you expected or higher than you expected and you could have done better with a different strategy because you should be attempting to take certain kinds of actions to assess how to allocate your budget that are based assessing your own situation at the time that you make the decisions, and the mere fact that the BTC price ends up performing differently than you expected can be taken into account, but should not cause you to end up taking rash actions to change what you had been doing.

Of course, I am not against tweaking and I am not against learning from mistakes, but we also have to realize that we are not necessarily going to know with any kind of precision which way the BTC price is going to go over certain shorter to medium term periods of time... so we just do our best and we just tweak our best.

You could establish your DCA portion and your buying on dips portion, and then see that your cashflow has changed, so you are making an additional $200 per month (or your expenses cut down by $200 per month), and in those kinds of circumstances you might choose to figure out how to allocate that new money and to choose how much of that new money might go into bitcoin and into which parts. how much do you put into DCA and how much do you put in your buying on dips fund... the same would be true in your attempts to figure out with how to deal with $200 more in expenses per month, which could remove a lot (if not all) of your extra cashflow tha you had been putting into BTC... so there are frequently going to be those kinds of factors that might change your allocations and even your thinkings about ways in which you might tweak the whole matter.



It seems that I already mentioned a couple of factors that can become quite serious considerations, and surely one of them is security of your coins.. which becomes more important the larger your stash grows.

Another factor becomes temptations that increase as the size of the stash grows to use parts of your stash for consumption or even for other investments or for emergency purposes, and prematuredly dipping into your stash can have very BIG ramifications in terms of its longer term growth.

You're right my budget is not too high but I will continue to adjust until this is completely stable meaning there is no reduction that I have set, as for the additional current maybe I will add from another note but it's still the same in the DCA strategy it's just that this separates me I just want to know the accumulation of the determined budget with the uncertain additional budget, so later it will be a comparison for me which one is better than the accumulation, the set budget or the additional budget.

It doesn't matter if it takes time, I've said I try to survive in any situation as long as I'm still working and getting a salary it's normal for my family to make ends meet, but in this forum I also generate an additional budget from the signature it will be more powerful for me so should think that this should be managed as well as possible so that the budget can be used as well as possible.

But I'm sure this will grow over time, so in essence we should be able to complete this mission with a long journey.

I doubt that your linked post of one of my responses is very reflective of what I think, especially since I was joking when I responded to that, yet largely the essence still ends up being that we cannot really know if the price trend is going to continue to go up, or if there is going to be a meaningful dip prior to going up more or a meaningful dip ONLY comes after having had gone up more.

I made an even further response in this post, after member Moringstarr had posted a kind of "down before up" proclamation.

Even if from time to time, I make various proclamations about the BTC price direction, I don't really consider myself to be someone who is planning my own behaviors in terms of placing very much emphasis in trying to figure out which way the BTC price is going to go, and if you look at my various posts within this thread, I frequently try to provide strategies that are not very dependent upon which way the BTC price is going to go in the short term with a kind of presumption that down the road in the longer term 4 years plus, the BTC price is quite likely to be higher than it is today.. or any day that you can pick that ultimately the BTC price is going up so that if you are ongoingly accumulating BTC at any price, that you are going to be better off in the future (4 years or longer) as compared to how you are today by either staying in the dollar or investing in any other assets/currency... So in any event nothing is guaranteed when it comes to how the presumptions end up playing out.

So as far as specifically attempting to prepare, each person has to look at their own situation, and surely if anyone is in the earliest stages of BTC accumulation, then it seems to me that there needs to be an ongoing dollar cost averaging (DCA) plan that is in play, and surely that DCA plan can can be supplemented by buying on dips and lump sum buying.. and from my point of view, we just have to be careful in regards to allowing the perfect become the enemy of the good in the sense that we are never really going to be able to exactly time the bottom with any kind of precision, so we could end up screwing ourselves in terms of both finances and psychology if we overly invest in waiting for dips that may or may not end up playing out.


O.k... fair enough... the bottom of $22k-ish might not be in, yet.  What about the bottom of $17,593 from mid-June?  Is that bottom in?  And, if you have any ideas, or suspicions regarding what might happen, then what are you going to do about your suspicions? 

Are you waiting?  Do you already have BTC?  Hopefully, you are not selling much if any BTC at this price with hopes of buying back lower when lower may or may not come.

The DIP is still not visible in my eyes, and I'm really scared to enter at the current price,
yes even though many people say that $22k - $23k is the bottom price, but for me the bottom is still untouched.

I understand the concern you feel about how to hesitate to place a buy or sell order. That's why I have a simple suggestion, one of which is to follow JayJuanGee post and try to see what he counts on the Bitcoin market especially. Because I'm pretty sure at a glance you can dispel a little doubt about buying or not. But keep in mind, if it's a reference, try to be wise in making decisions.

For example https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.60772527

If you are really interested in buying cryptocurrency then you need to make a quick move from observing one or two dip. The current market is relatively dip. Although some are discussing further dips, if the market turns bullish from here it will be difficult to reach your target.

Of course everyone hopes to buy dip and sell when rising, many say that the current price is bottom, sometimes I hesitate to buy because the market is difficult to guess, we think the current price is Dip but it turns out that correction continues to occur.

For sure there are problems when employing various levels of gambling and the more leverage you add, the more risky it is.

One thing that recked a whole fuckload of people in this last dump had to do with their using services to try to get "yield" on their bitcoin, so when you try to be greedy with something like bitcoin, you can really end up getting bit badly, and since bitcoin is already designed to pump forever, and bitcoin is one of the greatest asymmetric best that has been available to a wide number of normies, then why mess up a good thing by being greedy... when just plain vanilla bitcoin is already such a great bet in and of itself.

I understand that part of the point that you are making, Wind_FURY has to do with newbies starting out with so little capital that they almost would be justified in employing gambling techniques in order at least get up to a larger sized built up portfolio, and I just consider that your odds of getting to a larger sized portfolio are better built with strong principles from the start rather than employing gambling techniques in the start, and in that regard, it is my viewpoint that you are in a much better position to gamble some of you investment portfolio (perhaps no more than 10%), as long as you have already built it up with reasonable and prudent practices, rather than fucking around with gambling with it.. and I just know so many folks with gambling mindsets and they can never get out of their gambling mindset, and for that reason, I still think that it is better to attempt more sound strategies and then later maybe gamble a bit with some of the holdings, but one thing that happens when guys build their portfolio based on prudence, they have decently good chances to not even want to be screwing around very much with gambling techniques.

I have always discouraged plebs like me from using leverage, but for people with some skill and the right temperament, leverage might be the right path to start especially if the market's lowest DIP has already been reached. If you have an extra $1,000 of savings you can take the risk and trade it on less than 5x of leverage. This is not financial advice, it's risky gambling advice.

Your dip going to be different o my dip so do with everyone else.

At least that whaat you can do to get the dip , not the standard dip that if you look at the chart it was the lowest price you could get during the bear season.
Hard indeed really hard to get that standard dip , bag as much as possible and consider it as the dip and moving on ... that's the best move you could do , otherwise it's gonna be an endless debate

Don't get me wrong.. I am a BIG advocate for DCA especially for anyone in their earlier stages of BTC accumulation, but I am even a BIGGER advocate for attempting to accustom your approach to your own particular personal circumstances, and surely anyone who figures out what are their BTC accumulation targets, then they become way more empowered to be flexible in their approach with their getting closer towards reaching their targets or even being on time (or ahead of schedule) in terms of their timeline to reach their BTC accumulation targets.

Therefore, even though I consider DCA to be the best "getting started" BTC accumulation strategy, buying on dips, lump sum buying and even HODL can end up supplementing such DCA strategies.

I also personally believe that if your budget is not very high, and therefore your extra amount of cashflow that you can invest into bitcoin is also not very high, it could take you 5-10 years before you are even able to move off of a strict BTC accumulation strategy, and at the same time if someone is somewhat trying to study their finances, they might surely feel that they are becoming much more empowered by employing DCA on a regular basis and even strategically tweaking within their DCA approach.. and such feelings of empowerment would thereby grow with the passage of time.. and maybe even if the amounts of dollars that were used to invest into BTC had not felt like very much after a certain amount of time, there may well be needs to study how to improve security and to get those accumulated coins into a kind of cold storage because no one should want to have their coins in any kind of vulnerable place such as on an exchange or somewhere in which security could be compromised or other kinds of ways that you could end up getting parted with the coins that you may well have spent so many years building up.

Never think that the price will go down or up but the word "buying DIP" is just an illusion that you don't know how low the DIP is, but if we have a future for bitcoin, make a purchase in any way, don't think about the lowest possible price, which is important in the market situation bear we can buy it.

Actually there is nothing different, we keep buying bitcoin but it's just that for now it's more below $25k, maybe other people take different actions like this but with what I said before DCA is the best strategy in my opinion under any circumstances because we have a plan and will not disturb our finances excessively so when the price continues to fall but we have set it every week and will not be greedy even though the price goes down because I already have a benchmark every week to be allocated in DCA.

But it would not be wrong to try your best and buy the DIPs during the bear cycle, because buying DIPs lowers your average price of your total Bitcoins purchased, and if your average price is low, the larger your profit during the bull cycle. Plus a lower average price is better for your sanity.


Many people say many things, but I believe in price history. Bitcoin has never stayed below its 200-week SMA for long, and the Pi Cycle Bottom has never been wrong before.

Yes, the BTC price might dip, or it might not dip, so what is your plan in order to deal with the situation?

The same was true last November, December and January when the BTC price dipped down to the lower $50ks and then dipped even below $50k.  

So people bought on the dip, but the price kept dipping, and are you saying that we are supposed to do anything different now as compared with what we had done back then?  

What if we run out of money?  or what if we hang onto money "just in case"?  How are we going to know?  Presumably if there is a cashflow that has been coming in since January of this year, then if we did not buy bitcoin, then the cash amount in reserves would have been continuing to build during that time.  Are you suggesting any method to figure out when to buy and how much of the fiat to use for such BTC purchase(s)?

DIP will be difficult to predict, especially in a bear market like now, many say $15k, some say $17k and some even say Bitcoin will dump to $10k,
to be honest I really don't believe it. I just believe Bitcoin is the future, and this bear market Bitcoin can indeed dump and pump again,
so make sure we have a good strategy to deal with situations like this.