Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 6. (Read 138235 times)

Well, now you know! Most of the OG's are above 40 years old. Likely around the age of 50 - 65 years old. They were the people who had earlier adopted Bitcoin and invested in it. I think most of them contributed some amount of Bitcoin to the community when it merely cost $1. Have you seen this thread before; Legendary profiles of bitcointalk.?

Your assumptions make a lot of sense. If we really judge based on how old Bitcoin is. Roughly Bitcoin is 17 years old, added with an early adopted here in the forum which i at that time might be 30 years of age or less. That would be 50+ almost 60.

See how time flies

Holy shit... how lame can you get?  Of course, there are all ages here, and there are some guys coming to the forum who are still living with their parents, so they are trying to figure out the idea of actually having monthly expenses... there are also guys coming into bitcoin, yet based on age and/or health considerations, they might not be sure if they are reasonably able to invest into bitcoin since they might not be sure if they can commit for at least 4 years, which surely I would consider to be trading rather than investing, and I don't recommend it, even though sure people can do what they like, and of course, sometimes trading could be a position size kind of matter that people can still choose to do without jeopardizing their overall investment portfolio.. .. yet they still might limit their trading/gambling to very small parts of their monies.. but still not something that I recommend or wanting to discuss, especially in a thread like this that seems to also be attempting to emphasize investing rather than trading... which even you seem to ongoingly reinforce (even though you come off as quasi-retarded, presumptuous and unnecessarily argumentative sometimes) when you are emphasizing the HODL part.


bitcoin is designed to pump forever, so I doubt that "we" will be anywhere close to maturity or peaking in 10-ish or 20-ish years.   Sure, if bitcoin starts to get to being around 1,000x gold or if the addressable market starts to seem like it is getting absorbed into bitcoin.. then sure we might start to consider bitcoin becoming closer to a mature asset.. maybe it could happen quickly, but I am thinking that it could take 50-200 years to start to get to those kinds of feelings of maturity (or peak as you label it.. but even the term peak is a bit problematic, presumptuous and seems to be categorizing bitcoin as if it were some kind of a stock that would be limited instead of it being a protocol that has way more room for expansion and to even find use cases beyond our current imagination). 


Yep.. it is kind of funny how some of these discussions play out, and so in the last couple of days I was arguing about how much BTC can way out perform expectations, so it is not like I have been giving too many shits about whether I am in profits or not and/or exact measurements about how well bitcoin has done relative to other investments, but still sometimes those kinds of estimations become a point of interest and even an overall bitcoin discussion point. 

A couple of years ago (I think it was largely in 2021), I recall so frequently criticizing a large number of folks who seemed to have had been parroting Saylor's assertion that bitcoin has doubled every year, and so was projecting it to continue to double every year and ongoing nonsense like that.  I kept proclaiming those claims to be exaggerating and even estimating my returns to be in the ballpark of 75% per year.. more or less. and that I also had expected 75% per year to not be sustainable, and so that it would likely continue to come down, yet I was not really sure about how much, but that claims of doubling every year were close to pure bullshit, even if there are actual cases of it happening in reality (in the wild).

So then yesterday I was going back through some of my numbers and trying to figure out some of the particulars, and I sometimes want to describe some of my particulars, but then sometimes I can hardly give any shits, yet sometimes when I go back and look, I can consider another way of framing the matter or another way of thinking about it, but then I also might even recognize that my memory of my own history might not be very accurate.  How much did I invest, and were those investments new money or was some of that coming from sales and then buying back?  So it can sometimes be unclear.  I still think that the data largely supports that I mostly got into bitcoin  within a year, and then continued to add for another year, but then there is some evidence that I might have continued to add a bit after that... so then if I am still adding to my position, then how can we accurately measure the CAGR?. .

I found an online [urlhttps://www.investor.gov/financial-tools-calculators/calculators/compound-interest-calculator]compound interest calculator[/url]^** and I plugged in some variations of my numbers. 
Initially I was trying to see how 75% annualized worked out, and it was giving me numbers that were larger than my current holdings, so then I thought that I would rather error on the side of conservative proclamations about my "profit" levels rather than exaggerations, even though it can be a bit of a BIG SO WHAT?

**By the way, I recognize that I am not receiving interest on my bitcoin yet the compound interest calculator still can give some ideas about projecting compounding value into the future, even if interest is not being earned on the BTC

I can get 75% to work, even with putting different numbers, in there, and so I was kind of thinking that if I start my investment calculation period from late 2013, then that would slightly over 11 years, but then if I considered that the first year was a year in which I was mostly just building up the investment, so it did not matter how much it was appreciating since presumptively in the beginning of the year the numbers were too small to matter, yet by the end of the year the amount started to get to a BIG enough size to matter, which kind of was my factual case.  So them when I started to presume a kind of initial investment period that was not very important, then largely I could plug in my amount for 10 years, and then use a 10-year compounding interest rate rather than a 11 year compounding interest rate, and when I did that, I found that 60% worked better than 75%, even though I could still get 75% to work.. and so currently, I am starting to consider that maybe it would be better for me to describe my first year as building up my investment, and largely once I reached my investment size, then it has been (at least so far) right in the ballpark of 60% CAGR.

In the end, does it matter if it has been 75% or 60% or how I calculate it?  Perhaps not, since it seems that one  of the more important considerations becomes how am I going to manage it in terms of starting to employ some kind of a meaningful sustainable withdraw, if I consider that I have reached such a stage. and if I haven't then what more do I need to do to get to such a stage .. and surely I could have some kind of a threshold about how much profits I have since if I had ONLY put in $1k then that would be different than if I put in $10k, so then I might need to consider that I need more profits, yet a lot of my concern is still not about my level of profits, but it is more about how much value do I have to work with.


Yep... the investment does not really need to get cashed back into dollars in any kind of quick way..  The investment is just there and can be drawn upon while it continues to grow.

I suppose if there were some kind of concern about bitcoin holding its value, then parts of the bitcoin holdings could be reallocated into better assets... playing up and down waves seems to be a kind of presumption that people believe to be necessary, which seems to be way less central to bitcoin management than what a lot of normies seem to be presuming about bitcoin management. 


Let's hypothesize that a person with my kind of an investment timeline bought around 50 BTC between 2013 and 2017 for an average of around $1k each. So that would be around $50k invested over 4-ish years... So such person is feeling pretty good. .maybe bought some more and sold some more between 2018 and now, but largely still holds right around 50 BTC, and from time to time, he might feel like he wants to shave off some of his 50 BTC to buy some things. 

Maybe this guy was having some dilemmas between 2020 to present, since in 2020, his holdings went from around being 10x to 64x and down to 30x and then back up to 69x and then back down to 16x.. so sure maybe it is better if his BTC is 100x in profits in recent times rather than 16x in late 2022, but it may well not make very much of a difference except for the sense of whether the guy calculates that the 50 BTC is enough or not.  Of course, if the amount of BTC had been 100 BTC, then there is more flexibility because there is more of a cushion.. so it still seems that the quantity of BTC starts to become way more important of a consideration rather than the quantity of the profits... and sure if the guy is continuously cashing out profits along the way, he will never end up getting to a quantity of BTC in which the quantity of profits no longer matter,  since he will not end up getting to a kind of overaccumulation status since he keeps shaving off profits.


I think that with bitcoin over the years there has been so many ways to allow the bitcoin to work for you so long as you are not overly shaving off profits, and so once your bitcoin stash starts to get close to adequate accumulation status there might be needs to continue to be conservative with the withdrawals while the bitcoin is still growing.. but sometimes it seems people get overly anxious to cash out way too many BTC too soon, and it seems that with bitcoin there are ways to both have your cake and eat it too, as long as you don't get overly greedy with it. and largely bitcoin's investment thesis does not seem to be getting weaker.

Each investor may have different goals and different plans, but those who are willing to sell a small portion of their investment when the market price of Bitcoin rises is never the sign of an experienced investor. One of the important points that we need to learn at the initial stage before investing in bitcoins is to hold the investment for a long time i.e. hold the investment for a long time with patience. This means that you have to be patient whether the price of Bitcoin goes up or the price of Bitcoin goes down.

We need to set a fixed time frame for our investment at least 8-10 years and aim to buy bitcoins regularly and grow the investment portfolio. The goal of all of us who invest in Bitcoin should be to purchase Bitcoin regularly and You have to be patient in any market situation and hold your investments for a long time.

And that's why you need to read more when you want to dive into a topic of discussion. What is discussed in this thread is about Bitcoin, we are not here to discuss shitcoins or anything outside of Bitcoin. And also what you said is too simple in terms of investment and I feel that there are already many people who say things like this. If you want to get involved/are already involved in Bitcoin investment, you should leave your mindset and read more of the right tips in this thread.

You are actually correct, too much attention on profit in bitcoin investment can really have a negative effect in our investment or holding though the objective of this our investment is to make out something tangible in return that is if we are able to hold for a given period of time that is holding for a long..., and that is the reason why we should use money that will not affect or have a negative effect on us while investing in bitcoin even though something went wrong but it will be rare to see something go wrong in bitcoin but the only thing that can only happen is the high volatility of the market (variation or fluctuation) and when we use this kind of money to invest you wont give a shit about your investment because it is something you have made up your mind that even if you lose it you do not give a fuck but i think while some investors give a shit about or pay too much attention to the profit is that they invested what they can not let go and some people are just short term investor which is not different from a trader.

Please let's be guided and try as much as possible so we don't deviate from the topic of this thread. Also letting you know that there are terminologies that are highly unacceptable in this threads. Not that those terminologies are not valid in other threads, but in this place we prefer calling bitcoin for bitcoin, rather than generalising it as crypto. So while you are here and making posts here, it is important to adhere to the usage of the word bitcoin rather than using crypto. Since the discussion here is basically bitcoin, that's why we prefer using the word bitcoin. Because the moment you start calling crypto someone can induce another meaning into it and this can be misleading. So when you call bitcoin for bitcoin, there is no way someone can be led astray because there is only one bitcoin out there, but thousands of cryptocurrencies. So for the purpose of clarification and being specific, let's maintain the name bitcoin in this place.

It's very true that at the end of the day, it's all about the money, but I totally agree on what you said here that focusing too on profit making when investing in Bitcoin is a major distraction that might warrant you to sell due to temptation of profit making opportunity, so it's best pay less attention to the performance of Bitcoin in the market and focus more on accumulating more stash of Bitcoin since it hasn't gotten to that goal of holding for like 10 to 20 years time from now, because as a Bitcoin investor, if you pay too much attention to the value of Bitcoin, the profit you may have made already will definitely tempt you to sell off at some point, so even though profit making is one of the actual goal of holding Bitcoin, it shouldn't be something you pay much attention to, if not you will sell when you out not to.

It is true, for people over 60 years old, it is inappropriate to hold Bitcoin for more than 10 years. Maybe a realistic or ideal investment time for someone that age, might only last 4 years. This assumption can be concluded from the point of view if you want to still be able to enjoy the results of your bitcoin investment.

However, for example, someone aged 60 years or over and for example has a lot of money, then that person does not really care about whether he can enjoy the results of his investment. I don't think it matters if the person invested in bitcoin for more than 10 years. Because even if the person dies, there are still children who can enjoy the results of the bitcoin investment made by that person.

However, for bitcoin investors under 40 years old, I also agree that holding for a long period of time is a very appropriate choice. Because the potential of bitcoin is still very large, perhaps at the current price of bitcoin, it could be said that it is still not 10 percent of the total potential that bitcoin has. For this reason, investing in bitcoin and holding it for the long term is the right choice to make. The most important thing is that we invest using cold money and not the proceeds from borrowed money.

Yeah, they can enjoy it as much as they want, but it's still wise they don't end their holding in their times, some pretty good lessons and wealth could be passed down to their younger generation and with adequate coaching, the holding continues and part of their investment lives on even when they're gone. They would see him as a practical role model and follow suit.

I still believe Bitcoin is an asset and as such is something valuable worthy of being inherited by family members and with properly passing down the investment mindset to his family and after allocating various quantities to different members, their now individual portfolios continues texpanding and would create more investors from himself.

I’m also very much of the opinion that focusing more on profits when investing in Bitcoin can be considered to be more of a trader perspective and this is a very flawed and unrealistic way to approach our Bitcoin holdings, I’m solidly with you on that assertion.

Whenever an investor begins to consider using or selling some chunks from their BTC stash, the focus should be less about the profits and more about whether they have enough to cover or actualize what they want. It’s more of a shift in the mindset from “how much can I really make” to “do I really have enough to cover my needs?” So yes, if an investor decides to sell some BTC from their stash, then that should be because they feel that they’ve got enough BTC or more than enough to actually cover their needs, and so the profit aspect becomes less of a concern to the investor.

Those who are more concerned about the profit aspect are those who are actively trading their coins or who attempt to time the market, but when you’re an investor, the focus changes from that to using your Bitcoin for an actual purpose, that’s an investor’s mindset.

In my own perspective, it's not about Bitcoin cycle of a thing, though I started accumulating Bitcoin early last year when it was below 40k, and I have come to understand that the more you hold, like timeframe, the higher the chances of making more money from your holdings, so my actual plan is holding for the next ten years first, as long as their is life, then after that, I will have to do a review on Bitcoin, on how far it can still go, but if it's no where near it peak price then, their is no point thinking of selling part of my gains if it's not at the peak.

So if it hasn't gotten to that point I feel like the volatility of Bitcoin has reduced drastically due to it stability in the market and how far it has grown, selling is never an option, because it would be very obvious for everyone to see that it has gotten to it peak when the time comes, and the way gold price has less volatility, that's how Bitcoin will be when it has gotten to it peak, so till then, their is no point thinking or even entertain the idea of selling.

To be very honest, I never actually considered that there are people in BitcoinTalk who might actually be 60 years old or older. I have always made the, obviously wrong, presumption that we, or most of us, are under 40 years old. 👀

Pardon me sers, if I offended the people who are actually older than 60 and have posted their viewpoints about selling their Bitcoin. I have always preached HODL, but for our older community members, they should probably enjoy the gains of their time of HODL. You deserve it.

 👍

Yeah, but what kind of person are you talking about?  I doubt that you can just proclaim, "we should do this," without attempting to describe some particulars about how long has the person been in bitcoin and how many bitcoin has he already accumulated at the beginning of the 5-10 years.

To me, it sounds like you are talking about buying some bitcoin and just waiting 5-10 years in order to cash out.

You have a trader way of framing how you are wanting to deal with your BTC.

You buy some bitcoin and then you cash out.  What you going to buy with your bitcoin when you cash out?  Does that mean you are done with bitcoin?

Maybe you need to reconsider how you are framing this whole bitcoin matter and what are you planning to do once you get to where you want to be.

What about your own situation? If you have been in bitcoin since your forum registration date, then you could well have a whole two cycles of accumulating bitcoin, since you are coming upon your eighth year anniversary on the forum.. So, even  if you are talking like a trader, maybe you have already established a good stash, unless you have been fucking around trying to trade bitcoin for the past 8 years, then what?  Then you might have to learn how to transition from a trader's mind-set into an investors mindset so you learn how to both think about bitcoin and talk about bitcoin, since you surely are not coming off as someone with an investor's mindset to me.


These are not necessarily bad ideas, since surely after a whole cycle there is likely a certain amount of BTC price performance, and even if a guy mind spend a lot of time accumulating bitcoin in his first cycle, then he may well end up with a lot more options after the second cycle, so yeah, I can agree with those kinds of ideas... but still your talking about profits seems like such a trader way of framing matters, and I doubt that it is helpful or realistic to be framing matters like that.

Ok.. sure the bitcoin that we accumulated the earliest in our bitcoin journey are likely way more profitable than the bitcoin that we accumulated later in our bitcoin journey, yet even with myself, I went back and looked at some of my old records, and it sometimes becomes a bit difficult to measure how much I spent and how many bitcoin I got for that money, so then it might be more difficult to know some of the specifics as compared to having some better ideas about how many bitcoin you currently have, and whether how many you have is enough to accomplish what you might want to accomplish.. such as if you were to start to withdraw them from time to time, you might not give so many shits about how much they are in profits or not in profits, but instead you might become more concerned about do you have enough bitcoin to start to spend from your stash because I would presume that if you are spending from your BTC stash, then you are either presuming that you have enough or that you have more than enough, and you are selling portions of your stash that are more than enough.

How would you be motivated by your assessments of your profits if you are thinking about do you have enough BTC and can you start to spend from your stash?  We are going to presume that you are in profits if you are starting to sell some of them, no?


It does start to become a bit abstract to be looking out 50 years from now, yet I think on a general basis we might continue to consider that bitcoin will continue to appreciate in value, yet maybe if we are older than 30 years old then it surely might be questionable whether we might be alive at that time, but if we are planning to retire soon, and if we are in our lower 30s, then we might want to consider if our bitcoin stash is going to last potentially for 50 years or so, so we might want any cashing out plan to be sustainable in a kind of perpetual way.


It seems that my post was trying to deal with the seeming scattered nature of Princess Leah's post, since of course, if we might get to a point that we might plan to start to live off of our investment, then surely the younger that we are, then the more perpetually sustainable that we would want our cashing out (or withdrawal) strategy to be.  If we are still adding to our bitcoin and we have a full time income/job then the timeline seems to be less relevant, except maybe if we might be thinking about what we might do in the future in regards to how many years that we might have left, if  we are planning to live off our bitcoin or to supplement our income with our bitcoin.  there is all kinds of variance, and of course, Princess Leah was not really describing any kind of a specific reason to be talking about what bitcoin might do in the next 5-10 years versus in the next 50 years versus in the past 5-10 years... so from my perspective, I was having trouble with whatever point (if any?) was attempting to be made.

Time matters.

If you are 68 holding for ten years is not appealing,

If you are 38 hodl for 10 years is pretty much a must.

Under 38 hodl longer.

the gray areas are 38 to 68.

I think 5-10 years is a good and ideal choice because we go through two cycles where the Bitcoin cycle will experience the highest price changes and if we look at the previous trajectory every Bitcoin cycle always creates a new high and Bitcoin always creates a predictable bullish cycle every time there is a halving, so maybe in 5 years we will get good profits, but in the next 10 years we will get much better profits so I think both will make profits but the profits are different.

And I think it will never fail if you do it for the long term, I mean if for 5 years we fail to get good profits then you have to correct your mistakes and fix them because there will be opportunities in 10 years and so on to be able to make profits, but in reality every cycle that occurs Bitcoin always creates its highest price and it is certain that if you do it before 5 years you will definitely get profits and the profits you can get depend on how much Bitcoin you have because this is also something you should think about to always buy Bitcoin periodically so that your Bitcoin accumulates and becomes big in the long term.

And I won't comment on Bitcoin for the next 50 years, because I can only make the most of this opportunity while I'm alive and involved with Bitcoin. That's impossible and we'll never know what will happen, because Bitcoin can survive and be much better or vice versa and there may be a replacement as technology continues to develop.

You are a little all over the place with your talking points Princess Leah... It is like you are lacking focus.

If you might be attempting to think more concretely, then surely how many BTC were you able to accumulate in the past 5-10 years, and if you are still feeling like you don't have enough BTC, then you would focusing on gathering more BTC for the next 5-10 years, especially since we cannot turn back the clock. 

Another thing about your speculation about what might happen with BTC in the next 50 years.. sure no problem, but that happens to be way the fuck out there, and yeah a lot of things could happen to bitcoin, and maybe we need some ballpark ideas where we think bitcoin might go in 50 years, yet that hardly makes too much sense  as compared to focusing more specifically where are we at now, and what might we be doing and/or planning to do within more immediate time frames, such as 5-10 years as you mentioned... and without getting overly distracted about what happened in the past 5-10 years, except for our need to assess where we are at.. but it is not like we can go back an do-over any of the places where we might have fucked up in the past 5-10 years - except maybe learning how to improve upon areas in which we might have had made some mistakes...and if we continue to be lacking in focus in regards to what to do now, then that is likely not going to be very helpful in regards to helping us to sufficiently adequately progress to where we might want to be rather than where we wished we would have had gotten.

I get your points though but my thoughts are that the future of Bitcoin is very bright, the last 15 years of it's existence has thought me so, i believe that it has lots to offer in the future, yes no one knows what the situation is going to be like in the next 50 years, most of us might not even be alive till that period but for the time being it would be very wise to own as much as possible of this digital gold.

 Those who failed to gather much Bitcoin in the past 5 to 10 years would be very disappointed and wonder why they didn't buy more and hold, i bet that they had that mindset of the possibility of being disappointed in future so they bought few qauntity and got shocked currently. Bitcoin is not some gambling that you invest with money you can easily lose so my advise for those who got the purchasing power is to be very agressive in buying Bitcoin against the future, you need not to worry concerning what the future has to offer cause it's bright with Bitcoin.

Don't think like that, don't set points so firmly that you will be disappointed.

I say that because we don't know what will happen in the real world in the next 50 years.

So invest with money that is ready to be lost and the profit target is not calculated from the start or targeted from the start because that is not the best way to invest.

Don't expect bitcoin to change your life 100%. That's wrong, my friend.

But with the investment you make, you have hope and not certainty, So invest wisely with money that is ready to be lost.

just to straighten out your opinion, Because I invest with a budget of 15% and for me where I am not disappointed if something happens. But we still hope that this industry will continue to advance for hundreds of years to come.

But he really need to differentiate the way how he call things so that there's no confusion will come on his side. If he always call Bitcoin as crypto then provably that he might get confused about other alts out there naming their self the next Bitcoin.

So to avoid having such impression better learn about those basic things also better read back the discussions of this thread since there's lots of things to learn since he's already here.

Bitcoin has its own risk but it doesn't have the same level of risk what those shitcoins could offer since there's huge chance that they would experience fast defeat especially if they are into trading. But if they are into holding for long term and set their investment intended for that 4 - 10 years time span then provably that they can get more better return with that set up.

As a newbie, I understand why you chose the elaborate word "cryptocurrency" rather than simply using Bitcoin. I will guide you a little so you can feel at home in going about the whole thing the right way. This section of the forum is mainly for Bitcoin and how to go about investing and holding it. We prefer retaining that word "Bitcoin" which is what we are discussing and we don't care about the other numerous things that mimics Bitcoin and most often end up as shitcoins(shit in the sense that their value erode with time and often lead to people holding worthless asset).

Every investment has some elements of risk and so does life itself including our daily routine have risk so nothing is completely free from risk. Bitcoin investment have its own risk as well but you can never compare the risk in Bitcoin to the numerous shitcoins. Therefore, concentrate on building a Bitcoin portfolio that you can hold for a long time like 4-10 years and see how happy you will become doing that.