Topic: Calling top at $16500 (Even Newer!: $2483 bottom 19 Feb 2021 MtGox said so!) - page 14. (Read 24307 times)

I think my long term forecast is back in play... right on track for it to go sub 3k in the coming year...

There will be ups and downs, there always is - and they *always* keep people from seeing the macro picture. January of this year is a perfect example, a month long bull trap. A rise that made *no* sense. Everyone bought it though... literally! lol

He sgbett we recently break below 200 week MA and hold support at 300 week MA in the history of bitcoin first time we touch 300 week & start bounce of that level what do you think now..? still ABC Elite Wave Correction  or TIME will tel the Price..?

It really is

Isn't it funny how something always comes up!?

Yeah I don't trade so short term isn't my thing (I lean towards thinking its more a random walk than anything)

I've seen many a swing in a secular market, that people call as being a sure sign the top/bottom is in and we are reversing... I've seen many a rekt margin trader too

This current upswing is nice and all, but it looks (to me at least) very unlike "the next run-up". 10k seems *really fragile*... but what would I know. Just guessing like the rest of y'all

Well that covers the capitulation part, sure.


Compared to 9 months ranging at the bottom in 2015. That's the "long term accumulation" part. A lot of experienced traders (including me) were blindsided by the speed of the recovery in Q1 last year. Look at this shit:


Or this thread from mikeywith. When the market cut through $6K like butter, we had to change our tunes. I took that experience as a hard lesson about recency bias.

A year later, sgbett still hasn't changed his tune.

But...bbut...you already had a proper capitulation. It was that massive dump that started on 11-11-18. When the smoke cleared the float price went from ~$6500 down to $3200. Price cut in half, guys.   Also, trading volatility cratered and stayed dead for 3 straight months.

Tone Vays occupies a weird niche. Yes he's a BTC maximalist, but he's also sort of a perma-bear. He's constantly shorting uptrends. I can't remember the last time he actually forecast a macro bull trend.


A year ago, I was saying the same thing. "We need another capitulation and long term accumulation bottom just like 2015." I don't think that's actually true anymore. We were just conditioned by the 2014-2015 bear market to expect that.

Was surprised to hear Tone with such a low target, as I always had him pegged as being more bullish due to his BTC-maximalism tendancies!

While I think short/medium movement seems to be upwards, I don't get a sense of it being the start of the next run-up. It would need a proper capitulate bottom and long accumulation for one of those imho.

So I would still say a macro bear trend until 2021, then we will see whether the BTC bull still has legs, or whether something terminal occurs

A very broad view stretching upto 3 years like this is going to have to be quite elastic with the boundaries.   It seems from the chart above we could revisit last summers highs, I'd agree if we meet that point and it goes onto becomes a lower high we can say we have a bearish point on a wider time frame.    After an accumulation of these signals the arguments weight might shift over to your bearish belief on BTC price.
   Do you get any of what Tone Vays said on 4k being quite probable this year, I believe he states this can happen in the next few months.

Amazing how the merest hint of toeing the party line and all the haters suddenly got nothing to say. I think the AI needs tweaking.

So the support around 6500 held very strong at the end of last year and seems to be a solid foundation for this reversal in the downtrend of Q3-4 of 2019.

The move over 10k didn't stick but resistance in that area built up in mid 2019 would explain that.

So what, you are saying sgbett.... that maybe the bear market is over!?

I dunno lets take a look, for sure, from the chart its getting to the point where I would have to conceded that downward momentum has been arrested.



So what I am seeing is how ~6400-10,300 could act as a bit of consolidation range whilst the market figures out which direction it wants to go.

I can also see what could be a bullish pennant, which would mark continuation of the 200-20k upwards move, with around a $350k target!

Would I buy back into BTC? hell no! "fundamentals". See "Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System", sorry (not sorry).

Am I trolling, ask yourself who keeps posting image macros and desperate ad-hom in order to assuage their fears. Same old story. I've been on spec subform years and have a long history of both bullish and bearish price calls. This thread is no different (e.g the part where in the overall picture I said it would go from 6 to 16k then from 5 to 10k, that's not exactly bearish price action!).

So knowing that it is a fact I call Bothe ways, suggestions that I only ever consider "how low bitcoin can go" (lolwut?) highlights the ever present menace of people that do not know their history, and/or refuse to learn from it. Those people post an awful lot... who is trying to the influencing here?

What they fail to realise, is that my economic incentives are in check (Yes I am all in BSV, yes I still have a BTC hedge position via an ETF which I have mentioned several times in this thread) which I think makes for much more honest commentary.

My ability to think is not clouded by the prospect of significant financial loss should an opposing thesis turn out to be correct, nor is my vision blocked by the peak of a cap.

If you are trading BTC good luck, i'm sure there is money to be made (and lost). If you are buying/holding as a long term investment you sure as hell better understand what exactly it is you own.

I always think of BTC volatility like a Richter graph which is very sharp but in both directions.   It could easily still be called out as a criticism to say BTC is volatile but its rising very fast, that is a form of instability even if people like the sharply rising prices.   So yea, seems to be with some bias to leave out the positives people might like but are still part of the details of a negative argument against BTC.

That's not how stock-to-flow works. The price doesn't stay glued to it. The market can easily front run or lag behind it. Look at how long price remained below SF in 2015, and how the 2017 bubble lagged behind the halving-driven SF increase in 2016:




Sort of like when a gambler doubles down on his losses.

So instead of $2483 bottom 19 Feb 2021, we have now $1150. When will this one happen? 2022, maybe later?


EDIT: Uh, I see from the chart. Autumn 2021. Well I can give you  a news, that unless there will be huge recession at that time, which is actually possible, that will not be the case.

Sgbett: spending all of his time/effort on telling you how low Bitcoin will go, but none of his time predicting how high it will go.

The very definition of a troll.

That's ridiculous.

You seem to be trying to paint some kind of impossible bullish picture for bitcoin in order for the stock to flow model to be correct, or to make it easier to be proven wrong.

The price could be 50% off of the model for short periods of time and the stock to flow model could still end up being correct.

The fact of the matter is that bears, bitcoin naysayers (including bitcoin attackers) and alt coin pumpeners would like to employ resources to either cause the stock to flow model to seem to be wrong or to actually cause bitcoin price dynamics that would actually break the model.. good luck with that, you are going to need it. 

Let's say for example, bears et al are able to manipulate  BTC prices down for several years into the future to both cause the BTC prices to be way below stock to flow model or even to be out of line with the four-year fractal model.  Absent some kind of bitcoin blackswan situation, they are likely only going to be able to achieve such success of keeping BTC prices down for so long before such prices end up violently bouncing back.  We have already witnessed these kind of dynamics in bitcoin history on a large number of occasions, and there is almost no reason to believe that such dynamics do not continue. 

In other words, bears et al are motivated to push btc prices down for as long as they can and for as low as they can through whatever means that they can achieve it whether physically dumping bitcoin or employment of new financial instruments to attempt to dump by using fractal reserve instruments or to spread FUD (and sometimes even FUD that have some stronger basis in reality). Of course, NON of this is really inevitable, but it is going to be scary if you bear wannabes are preparing ur lil selfies too much for down, and there just are NOT enough resources available to continue to fight and win against the ongoing underlying powers of king daddy.

Because the price didn't recover.
According to those charts, we should be above 10k right now.

Unless we see some big green candle in the upcoming weeks, the model will be put into question. Stretching the lines will not help, since its a mathematical model.

And by big green candle, I mean a rocket launching bitcoin from the current price to 25-30k. This would burn the bears and start the real bull run.

Just want to point out that I was misquoted here. JayJuanGee wrote that in response to me: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.53656118


That C wave looks awfully exaggerated in magnitude. I also don't see how it fits into the higher degree wave count. I won't say it's impossible but it doesn't seem like the most likely scenario.


Stock to flow, busted? Why?

This prediction by sgbett miss one thing: the big green candle at the start of the first wave.
Instead you have some smaller green candles, which means the ATH was not as manipulated as it were in 2013.
The A wave in the second group is also at a higher point than in the first.

You see, even bears believe in the four-year cycle. But after StF got busted, repetition is not certain.