Topic: Calling top at $16500 (Even Newer!: $2483 bottom 19 Feb 2021 MtGox said so!) - page 15. (Read 24373 times)

You are so knowingly bonkers that you cannot even take yourself seriously enough to make a straight-faced prediction... and that is usually what makes better humor into GREAT humor.... hahahahaha ... that's why you have so many qualification framings in your phraseologies... (nearly the whole thing is like one BIG qualifier... that I have bolded some of your chosen hilarious parts), merely to prepare us for your level of ridiculous that you don't even believe to be anywhere close to being possible. 

Well damn, you are all going to think I'm absolutely off my rocker, but then it wouldn't be the first time

Before I continue, I spotted this...


I want to just point out how absurd it is to still think that it possible that some crappy chart on a bitcoin talk thread (least of all one from a "BSV Shill" like me) can have *any* effect on price. It was bad enough in 2012, now... I think its probably time to put that idea to bed

Anyway, you didn't come here for that, you came here for ridiculous speculation and I've got that in spades.

I was gazing at the 1month chart, looking at my long term forecast, thinking how it was OK but it didn't seem to be quite right, then suddenly this hit me.

The Elliot-wave downtrend "ABC" is a 3-wave... so plotting that on post gox and then goxfractalstrapoliting it up gave me this. Furthermore, we all know that markets (not just BTC) love to go back and retest highs, it did post gox - no reason to think it wouldn't this time, so I figured the target region would be the wick at the ATH.

With that I give you the nightmare horror story that is a ~$1150 bottom:



So please, fire away & rip it to shreds. I'm used to it by now

I said my part, and you said your part.  Could be somewhat semantical, and surely I am not attempting to call BTC price moves in shorter time frames, but I do frequently engage in rebuttal attempts towards members who seem to be assigning what I consider to be too high of probability value towards one direction or another, especially when it comes to short-term predictions.

Seems to me that sgbett's post had sparked my post in that direction, rather than your post, unless you are agreeing with Sgbett's $5,200 prediction for February 10th-ish?

In other words, I am not really attempting to call anything, except that I was attempting to assert that sgbett's prediction of $5,200 by February 10 was way too pie in the sky bearish based on what seems to be current circumstances.. which is way the fuck more than just semantical insignificance.  I also attempted to explain why I want to use such terms and what they mean to me.   No need for me to repeat what I already said.

Sure, I understand that you feel that you need to attempt to make assessments for shorter time frames and you want to use terms that attempt to describe what you are saying on a shorter time frame, and y disagreement with those terms seems to go a bit beyond semantics since it seems to go towards the assignment of probabilities to short term price directions, too, as I already attempted to explain my framework.   We might just be repeating ourselves, unnecessarily, at this point.

You're just limiting your definition of "bull market" to Bitcoin's multi-year bullish cycle. I was merely clarifying that I (and other traders) don't necessarily limit our usage of the term that way. 2015-2017 was a bull market. So was the first half of 2019. These bull markets occur at different time frames.

I don't believe it's useful to restrict "bull" and "bear" to multi-year cycles. As a trader, I need much more granularity in my analysis to successfully navigate intermittent trends. If it pleases you, you can mentally replace every instance of "bear market" with "downtrend" or "bearish correction." It's not something worth arguing over. This is an unimportant, purely semantic issue that you are focusing on.


I never suggested anything like that. It's only your arbitrary definitions that lead you to think when I say "bear" it means "the 2018 bear market hasn't ended yet." Nothing could be further from the truth.


That's exactly what I've already speculated: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.53633657

Nothing I've said about the latter 2019 downtrend contradicts that theory. I do believe we are in a multi-year bull market. That unfortunately tells us nothing about what will happen in the next few months (or what happened in the last few months), hence my consistent attempts to further speculate on shorter term movements: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5196072.80


You're just speaking in vague terms and going with your gut feeling. That's fine but I can't operate that way as a trader. I'm simply applying a rigorous and accepted definition of "uptrend" and "downtrend" based on Dow theory, because being on the right side of the mid-term trend is vital to surviving the market:


Correction: you are only considering one time frame, one trend. For some strange reason, you repeatedly ignore my speculation (which 100% agrees with you) that we have already been in a multi-year bull market since December 2018.

I am considering trends within trends.

Yeah, but I am not even really saying that the 350% increase was a bull market, but instead that it seemed to be a pretty strong sign that we had exited the bear market and that the bull market had begun.  We would not really know if that assessment was correct until some passage of time, and I am still leaning on those facts in my consideration regarding where we are at and whether we had either gotten knocked back into the bear market or that we never had transitioned into the bull market in the first place.

I am merely saying that there is insufficient evidence, so far, that our current correction that has brought BTC prices all the way back down to $6,425 has reverted us to the previous bear market or that we have been knocked out of the bull market. 

Of course, all of these assessments and evidence remains tentative because subsequent movements in price can cause a previous market movement to be considered in another light and have to be relabelled.. and that relabelling was no fucking way known in advance, but the subsequent movement ended up necessitating such relabelling.



I am not going there...  but hey you might be correct, but that surely is not my assessment.  Currently, I consider it as a mere correction in a tentative bull market.  Surely, I do not consider the matter conclusive, but I still am NOT going to go so far as agreeing with assessments that such price movement is a "bear market" or that we should be creating our expectations of future BTC price movement based on such an assessment of a bear market.. Yeah, I might be wrong, but I give two shits about whether it is right or wrong.. and surely each person comes to his/her own decisions regarding what factors are relevant to considering these kinds of labels and to make assessments regarding BTC price direction probabilities.



You can give weight to whatever timeline that you want in order to conclude what is "technically" correct or not.  My presumptions seem to be based on a bit of a longer time frame than what you seem to be "technically" using to arrive at your conclusions regarding the purported proper label for where we are at, currently.



I am not confident in anything regarding where we are going.  I am just attempting to suggest where we are at and that the odds seem to weigh slightly in favor of UP rather than down.... Does not mean that we won't go down, but if I am saying 51/49 for up rather than 49/51 for up, there is a difference that might not make a large swaying about how to bet, if I were betting in one direction or another or picking various time lines in order to make such assertions regarding where we are going to be at at certain points into the future, whether talking about 2.5 weeks (like sgbett), referring to the time of the halvening (May 9), the end of 2020 or some other potentially relevant time frame.

When I say "bull market" and "bear market" I'm really talking about mid-term uptrends and downtrends that play out over several months. I don't restrict usage of those terms to Bitcoin's long term multi-year cycles.

The 350% rally of early 2019 was an undeniable bull market. The 70% retracement since the $13,000s and the chain of lower highs and lower lows (which has still not been broken) is/was an undeniable bear market. At the monthly time frame, there is no obvious break of that trend yet. That's what I mean by saying "bears can rightfully keep repeating we're in a mid/long term downtrend." Until the October and November pivots are engulfed to the upside, they are technically right.

I believe you are correct that December 2018 was the beginning of another cycle like 2015-2017. The charts have yet to prove it though. For me, we need to break the 2019 highs before becoming too confident in that assessment.

You might not be asking me, asus09, but my personal financial strategy (or mindset) does not require bitcoin to go above $16.5k in any kind of short-to-medium term time-frame in order for me to feel that I am in a good investment. Of course, some kind of stagnation in bitcoin's price for a couple more years would likely bring some concerns about whether certain price models are valid, such as the stock to flow model or the 4-year fractal or even the various Metcalfe law / networking effects/adoption models, but that might just mean that the models need to be tweaked rather than their being wrong, necessarily.

I think that a perspective of already being good with bitcoin, even if price dynamics might remain somewhat flat in the coming years, comes from already having had been in bitcoin for more than 6 years and experienced considerable profits already.  Of course, another possibility could be more in-line with bear scenarios in which bitcoin bleeds value for the next 4-6 years.. which could be quite shocking to a lot of people, but also seems like a scenario that is quite pie-in-the-sky unlikely too, because historically, we have not really seen bitcoin price dynamics to be happening with any kind of meaningful gradualism, so whether BTC's price is going down, up or somewhat flat, the more likely scenarios seem likely to continue to include a lot of volatility along the way - even if we were to end up at the same price as we are now in 4-6 years.

Sure, currently, each person is in a different place in terms of whether s/he has been accumulating bitcoin over the years or merely trading it and attempting to accumulate dollars through such trades, so in that regard, each person is going to have a different approach to bitcoin, even if there is a bit of a presumption that members participating in this forum are somewhat inclined to be informing themselves about bitcoin and presumably striving to accumulate (at least some) to put in their portfolio (to the extent that they might not be getting too distracted into the various noise of the space including over allocating into various shitcoins - which remains a real, tempting and ongoing balancing dynamic of the space).

Even if institutions might not yet be dominating the bitcoin space, we cannot discount that institutions continue to contemplate entering bitcoin, what tools are available and what kind of approach they are going to take in regard to bitcoin.  The way institutions make decisions might have some similarities and differences from how individuals decide, yet bitcoin can work for both (individuals and institutions), so sometimes it can be important to consider how others are thinking about the space in order to decide one's own perspective regarding how to approach BTC's anticipated future price performances.  



hahahahaha

You mean that asus09 was not asking a serious question?  I agree the question seemed a bit lame and unspecific, but there tends to be quite a bit of that going on in the forum, anyhow (in sum, I have been trolled into a "taking it seriously" response....   )

This PSA brought to you by courtesy of that fine upstanding organization known as Yobit.

Why do you look optimist bitcoin will back with higher price above $16,500 and what your way and how to keep believe with other investor to make bitcoin keep growing with higher price above $16,500. You must check with bitcoin price right now below $8,500 and keep stable always in lower price after last days have raise with higher price.

I understand that bears say all kinds of things prematurely because they are trying to get the downward momentum to cause their proclamations to become true, and I fuck all admit that I am as much of a delayed indicator as anyone, so in our 2018 correction, I personally would not admit that we had entered into a bear market until the November 2018 intensive spike below $6k and approaching $3k.... Nonetheless, when we came out of the largely sub $4k prices on April 1, and mostly returned above $6k by mid-may, I had largely asserted, at that time that I had thought that we were no longer in a bear market, even though I can look at the charts and see from July 2019 to December 1919, we have had a quite a bit of prolonged correction, and I would NOT have asserted that correction (that we are currently still in) to have been either severe enough or prolonged enough to take us out of our about mid-May 2019 conversion into a bull market.

In other words, we cannot be just flip flopping, and saying bull market, bear market, bull market.. after every little price move, so I still believe that we remain in out about mid-May conversion into a bull market with a interestingly long correction in the middle.  Sure, maybe that does not really help for short to medium term assessments about what to do, but nonetheless, when part of the outcome action points (in my thinking) regarding assessing if you are in a bull market versus a bear market is whether the short-to-medium term odds of a break out weigh more in favor of up or down... not conclusive odds, but just a leaning in one direction versus the other direction.

So in that regard, sgbett's proclamation that we are going down to $5,200-ish by February 10-ish, seems overly bearish not only in terms of direction but in terms of degree.. both time and amount.  One plus side, of such proclamation is that we are not going to need to wait for very long to find out if he was correct.

You have to admit, the two rallies look very different.

The late October move was a short squeeze that took place over a few days. Zero support was built on the way up. In comparison, we're 5+ weeks into the current rally, coming off a weekly W-bottom, and stair stepping (building support) the whole way up. We haven't seen bullish momentum on the weekly like this since March 2019.

As long as we remain below that October pivot high, bears can rightfully keep repeating we're in a mid/long term downtrend. To me, however, it's becoming obvious that a change in market direction is occurring.

I surely don't have any problem with the topic of bitcoin...

But, you know that recent events of the last week (and a bit more) kind of made it irresistible for anyone to not at least refer to that other coin potentially having some contributory affect on overall BTC price dynamics - and whether true or not, surely can be tempting to mention such potential contributory factors upon price...

Anyhow, concerning bitcoin, you are prognosticating UP before DOWN? Is that what I am reading from what you just said? Interesting.

I recall that week of October 19th (and if I don't recall I can look at the charts), and especially October 25th was a very notorious day in bitcoinlandia (and in my memory too) with a rise (albeit a quick one) from $7,300 to $10,300 in about 12 hours constituting around a 42% price rise.  Thereafter, it took about a month for the price to come back down to $7,300 - but ended up going lower than $7,300 as we can look at charts to verify that the low reached $6,424 in mid December.

Those were kind of unique and special circumstances that were based upon where we were at then, and you are suggesting that 3 months later, bitcoin is capable of repeating the same starting out from a higher price point (currently $8,650 - and having had dropped from nearly $9,200 in the past 16 hours) but ending up at a lower place than it was on in mid December? 

Seems a bit wishful to me in terms of your expected extent of DOWN, and I would surmise that the odds are quite against you - even though I appreciate that your prediction is not exactly outlandish, while the BTC price pressures seem to be ongoingly towards the UP rather than the DOWN, .. but yeah, you might be saying UP before down, too.....

The fact that you are wanting to suggest that we are in an October 19-like situation, or am I misunderstanding what you are asserting/predicting?  In my thinking, if you happen to get it right, you have just won a low probability bet, because current situation is not looking good for what you are saying to be our purported sad state of affairs in mid-February-ish.

Well at the risk of bringing this back on topic....

This was a good attempt to rally, but doesn't look like it has enough momentum and I think it will roll over now the same as it did October 19th. (looking at the weekly)

Probably gonna find some support around ~5200 second week in February (lets say 10th)

A week or so before Coingeek, probably unrelated. Sets up some potential exciting price action before that though!

You are brilliant.... I explained already, but you want to get into irrelevance because that happens to be your speciality.

Getting into the weeds, jbreher?

Twisting your words!? It's a goddam quote, you cretin.

You would be hilarious, jbreher, if you were not so damned annoying.  



 

IOW, when you typed "I ONLY HODL bitcoin", you were lying. Got it.

Look at you... attempting to get into bullshit and irrelevant technicalities, again.. just to distract from your own desires to take this thread into the irrelevancies of that trash coin, aka bcash sv...   the bcash sv tards are gloating... about their nonsense coin.

Yes, I have a few shitcoins that value less than 1% of the value of my BTC portfolio.  I largely ignore them because they are just kind of sitting there for me to look at how much they are losing every once in a while.  Do you want to know which ones, even though that topic seems to be largely irrelevant to my main points and even my overall approach to btc.. which you already likely recognize my approach to be focused almost entirely on bitcoin in terms of cryptos.. . AmiNOTrite?

I coulda sworn you saying you had some holdings of other coinz. Did you sell them? Is my memory faulty?

Look, another enlightened turd chiming into pump the Bcash SV nonsense.... who feels that there is some kind of value in a piece of shit scam coin.



I feel so privileged to be acknowledged by your smug deity turdness, since I ONLY HODL bitcoin and not your lil purportedly enlightened scam token.