Topic: Calling top at $16500 (Even Newer!: $2483 bottom 19 Feb 2021 MtGox said so!) - page 16. (Read 24307 times)

Poor JJG.

The lights are on over here buddy. You could stop wandering around stumbling over stuff, if you'd just open your eyes.

There seems to be no reason to take any of these matters personally.  Of course, you are asserting that you are inclined to stick to your guns about the way that you spell bitcoin and you also stuck in some thread irrelevant discussion in which were involved in trying to legitimize that bullshit scam project, aka bcash sv... so yeah, you deserve at least minimally to be called a few names for that kind of conduct.  Your feelings of indifference might establish the level of your adamancy about a scammy project rather than lending any credence to any kind of neutral objectivity that you might have been intending to portray.


Of course, I already understood that message about your not caring about perception, and I suppose that there is nothing wrong with your attempting to further explain that, to the extent that you concluded that it might be helpful and/or relevant.


Well, yeah, I suppose so.  Many of us in this space already likely already understand the Lindy effect concept, and so in that regard, the longer that a thing is in existence and serving some functions, the more likely that it is going to continue to exist and to serve those functions or adapt or whatever.  So, in that regard, bitcoin has been growing and growing and growing - which also means evolving and overcoming various challenges along the way, whether attacks or otherwise....

Surely, there have been a variety of milestones along the way in bitcoin in order to cause more confidence regarding its resilience and ability to sustain a variety of attacks.  I am not sure if we need to list all of the various attacks, but we can also likely agree that the attacks are NOT over, even if it seems to be clear that your vision of bitcoin is likely different from my own, if you believe that bsv has any meaningful role in the road forward instead of serving as one of the bitcoin attack vectors, yet, in any case, surely bitcoin's resiliency towards some of the various attacks have made it stronger, and even has shown its strength in a variety of ways.



I am not sure what you are talking about, exactly, but you seem to be engaging in one of those bullshit patronizing ploy attempts to suggest that you have some kind of higher level of knowledge or insight than me or other people in the bitcoin space, which is likely not even close to being true and likely going to be shown to be NOT true.

Sure, everyone has varying kinds of knowledge or specialities and some people are more technically inclined than others, yet many of us realize that bitcoin touches upon a variety of specialties.. whether technical, economic, social, legal, political, history and/or some other specialties, so anyone trying to assert that they have better insight about bitcoin because they have specialities in one or several of the areas might be largely engaging in a ploy rather than a genuine dialogue attempt.

That seems reasonable enough. I don't harbor any animus towards Bitcoin forkers. Aside from people like Craig Wright, I think they are a generally sincere bunch. At the end of the day though, it will boil down to this:

I suppose I could get really upset about begin called a troll, or a shill, or a gullible retard but for some reason I feel wholly indifferent.

I think that reason is that I know it doesn't really matter how people perceive me or what I say (That was supposed to be the central theme to my wall of text - sorry, I should have been more clear and/or succinct).

What really matters to me is Bitcoin. To see the fruition of what I saw all those years ago, as well as so much more than I ever imagined was possible. Whether or not other people see it yet is largely irrelevant. It feels like we have passed the point of no return now, and that its success is inevitable.

In much the same way as I was evangelising Bitcoin back then (except the lions den was slashdot at the time) I continue to do so now, because I want everyone to benefit from what it brings. Once you see it, you'll understand.

That is true.... I largely already made up my mind about the spelling, and I said my part and you pretty much admitted that you are purposefully using it as a king of shit-stirring tool.



I agree no need to toe the party line... that's for sure.  No one expects you to.


That is not what is going on here nor happening in bitcoin... even though you assert that you perceive such.


That is not what you are doing, and that is not what trolls do.  I am not calling you a troll, but I am saying that your spelling of BitCoin is a troll/shill behavior.... so do with that what you will.


No one expects you to be good in this space.  You can substantively challenge bitcoin in any way that you like, and there are all kinds of people who do so.  Bitcoin is not exactly accepted in society, yet.  Hey there is likely much less than a 1% world adoption of bitcoin, and even those who bought into bitcoin so far, have likely not even taken a reasonable stake... thus the less than 1% world adoption... so in that regard, bitcoin is hardly any kind of imposer of values, and largely continues to be attacked and receive a lot of variety of attacks... both in terms of ideas and also attempts at physical attacks.


I doubt that is what you are doing, but hey, you can perceive yourself and your actions how ever you like, and if you believe that your spelling of bitcoin like "BitCoin" is actually an attempt to employ socratic dialogue techniques, then that is your choice of perception... does not seem to be an accurate perception... but whatever, maybe 1,000 years from now, we will be reading about how innovative you were in your rhetorical argumentation style in your employment of the "BitCoin" spelling attack tool.


Yes, that is going to bring you a long way, to refer to Craig as some kind of intellectual thought leader.     Get real.   


Don't bother here.  I doubt too many people give many shits about your devolution into that irrelevant topic.



Exactly.  Should be obvious.


That is not called "open minded."  It is called being unable to discern or being a gullible retard, to put it in more layman's terms.


Of course, reasonable criticisms can be made of various bitcoin developments, but if there is harping on the adoption of segwit, that is more than a two year old phenomenon, and difficult to reverse since it was a product of then consensus and subsequent building upon it.  Difficult to go back when people are building upon it.  Surely, ways forward can and should be discussed in regards to bitcoin and any of its problems or matters that it is not resolving very well, to the extent that there are meaningful problematic areas.... and of course, there is a balancing of storage of value considerations, transactional considerations and the balancing between various options that are built on bitcoin, including functionality, ease of use, security and likely a variety of other considerations... the power of many ideas, ongoing development, participation and many concerns.. that is for sure. 

Speculation sub-forum? I'm just part of the furniture. You don't have to take me seriously. It's up to you to figure out (and be honest) if you think I'm calling it as I see it, or whether this is "market manipulation" (lol). Just the 8 years of honest posts to go on, such a scammer I am check my forum rating!

The BitCoin spelling is a joke, its a little dig at all the BTC folk, and apparently it struck a nerve  if it makes me a troll/shill in your eyes (you know if you use the slur too much it loses all meaning) then so be it. In actual fact I think you have already made up your mind, so it's of little consequence to you what I say.

Why don't I toe the party line on BTC and the correct spelling of Bitcoin? you don't ask, but I will answer anyway as I am wont to do periodically

My understanding is born out of the research I have done over the years. My opinion is based on that research. Whilst I might listen to many folk, and pay attention public opinion I am not such a slave to "social standing" to let that shape my belief to any significant extent. It is only so I understand where I sit in relation to that.

One of the problems in the world right now as I see it, with the rise of the internet and more recently social media, is that life has become more like a popularity contest. The person that gets the most likes, that is seen to be the most , is the person that most people look up to. Celebrity culture. A shallow take on life that almost precludes any deeper thinking for fear it might reveal that the emperor has no clothes. Once a person is dependant on validation of others, then it becomes a cage. It is a form of control. There is an irony in the rich and famous having less freedom than the man who gives up everything to live as a monk. The monk has chosen his poverty the celebrity cannot escape their lot.

Contrast the 'influencer' to the person that works hard out of the public eye. That the masses either do not see or regard as an outsider, a freak, someone not to be trusted because he doesn't validate the behaviour of the group. This person has little regard to the opinions of others, or their social standing. Their reward is the truth, and so they seek it above all.

For me, in that person, is true good. Directly in opposition to that person who *seems* to be good.

For in fact, to master the art of seeming to be good - one must spend all their time to this end. Leaving little time for the actual goodness.

This is not a new idea. This is one of the central themes in the socratic dialogue "The Republic" written by plato around 375BC.

What I have come to learn over the past year or so, is that so much has already been found. So much has been lost along the way.

I've barely scratched the surface here, and (probably to everyone's horror and/or derision) these are thing that I have learned is as a direct result of listening to Craig - he is the one that has taken time out of his schedule to lead a reading group, identify texts and lead discussion. Such scam, many exit.

What you see in public is a masterful charade - and you will come to see it, sooner or later - that is designed to filter out those would be sycophants, and crooks and thieves. The ones more concerned with their own self serving public image than they are with growing BitCoin (yes) into the massive network that he foresaw all those years ago and that only now others are starting to understand the true nature of. He continues to hide it in plain sight, those that look can see it quite clearly

Honestly. I am always open to explain BSV to anyone that is interested, to answer questions and/or point people in the direction of more information if I can't. I give answers, not arguments so if its the latter you are after don't bother.

If you are convinced that BSV is a scam, and BTC is Bitcoin etc then don't bother.

If you are open minded and feel that things don't quite add up with 1MB block, LN that (provably) doesn't scale and Blockstream's solution of moving to Liquid and every other boondoggle invention that has been been shoehorned into BTC. Then my door is always open

Hey sgbett:  I also would like to give you the benefit of the doubt regarding your merely calling balls and strikes (suggesting your attempt to project neutrality); however, it is quite difficult to take you serious as any kind of neutral if you do not know how to properly spell bitcoin (referring to your misplaced capital "C")....   That is a troll/shill way of spelling, and do you really believe it is necessary to make your points.

Of course, I don't agree with you regarding the level in which you expect BTC prices to go down in the coming medium term - such as your "down before up" ideas, but it would be a lot easier to take you seriously if you did not employ the troll/shill spelling of bitcoin.  Do what you want, ultimately it is your choice.  I am just saying the disingenuous effect of something like that... which might not have been your intention.. perhaps?  Perhaps?

Lol bottomed end of 2019, recovery top in June and on a downtrend ever since. Yeah I'm miles off!

It's a forecast of how traders would behave done in 2018. It's what I think the general trend was going to be after the top in 2018 (which you'll remember I saw coming at the start of the thread).

I'm telling you what the general trend will be, I'm not giving you TA to tell you exactly what levels to trade. I don't trade. I do like to try and rebalance BitCoin holdings in lines with the long term market cycles to try and optimise things but I think that's just prudent investing. It's the same as you might manage a regular stock portfolio. I'm not chasing quick profits trying to time buys and sells.

So you can tell yourself whatever you need in order to make yourself feel better - sure. I'm crazy, wrong and it'll never play out like this

  except in your chart your lines have it currently at about 5000, instead the price is high 8000s, clearly separated from your lines. perhaps not going so much as you expected eh?

See this is the scale I prefer to look at things from in a 3 year forecast All going pretty much as expected...

I agree the diagonal channels are only good for "bursty" moves - great if you are a trader, you can buy/sell any breakout set tight stop loss.

Not for me though, I aint trading nothing

I agree with others 10k is the support after it broke down from the triangle back in September... personally I think the spike up is just an anomoly from chain BSV yesterday and it will resume the downwards trend.... might take a week or so, that's the thing with long term forecasts, these spike often turn out just to be noise.

Yes, breaking the descending channel is just another baby step towards confirming the end of the bear market. I try not to put too much emphasis on diagonal lines. The strongest support and resistance is always horizontal.

The market needs to break above this October pivot to form a first higher high on the weekly chart. As such, I expect bears to make a stand before we get there to keep this structure intact:



For the record, I strongly believe now that $6,000s was "the bottom." Breaking above the $10,350 (Bitstamp) pivot will take time though.

haha yesterday was quite the anomaly BSV leading the entire market higher!? Crazy times.


nice call!

The channel you posted is officially broken, as we saw 8.8k few hours ago...
(almost 8.9k I think).





Still the channel clearly shows that the previous lower high was around 10k, therefore it is crucial to go above 10k to break the bearish trend.
In my opinion the overall trend is still a downtrend until we see 10.5k again. That won't be easy.


Short term looking very nice though:





By the way in this thread I was recommending to buy at 6.7k and sell at 9k, we are almost there: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.53174178

The channel above looks nice but it could also be misleading.

10.5k is the key price IMO. Major support. Two major prices: 6.4k on the bottom and 10.5k as a major resistance. If we break the channel above until (let's say) 9.3k, and go down again, then it's still a lower high than the previous high of November, which would mean the trend is still bearish. In my opinion it still looks like a fake out, I think we still see 9k soon (breaking the channel) yet won't see 10k again this year but we should go down to 5k at some stage (second semester).

Just my opinion, do your own research.

Yeah, not going down the "the next is crucial" route, but a break out of that channel towards five figures and becoming short term overbought, so then retracing and confirming $8500ish as support would, for me, change the whole picture and be very bullish.

And the whole crypto world is watching 

OOF, quite a nice little jump there for BTC... can it break out of that channel.... its having a good go!

The way this is playing out, Bears are going to be lucky to get anything below $6,424, but I will concede that $6,424 is more likely than below $5,500, which is going to require a considerable amount of luck and maybe the pumpening of a lot of cash into BTC to cause it to drop and run the risk of losing all of it.. So, even odds of below $5,500 or below seem quite low, even zooming out to later in this year.

Time will tell for any of this, so hopefully, there is investment going on for either price direction, especially UP... since there has not been quite any investment that has been so great as bitcoin.

Remember Tim Draper's long term bet in the $600s on the 30k-ish silk road coins in 2014?  He was considered a fool for nearly two years before his coins went into profits, so a bit of long term thinking would likely have better results in hedging towards betting on UP rather than pie in the sky ideas that we have to have "down before up," and a lot of the chartalists seem to get caught on these kinds of "down before up" ideas and frequently have gotten REKKT in bitcoin's historical performance with such ideas, including missing some of the opportunity costs that come with NOT having sufficient UP preparations.

They are bullish about the hype that will halving bring. You know the soup is hottest as soon as is cooked. Who believes there will be no hype in April or/and May is wrong. Also who believes price will not return to pre April values in June is most likely also wrong.