Topic: Calling top at $16500 (Even Newer!: $2483 bottom 19 Feb 2021 MtGox said so!) - page 11. (Read 24307 times)

Sorry I wasn't clear. What I meant was that I had more alt coins back in 2015 then than I have now, but these were only ever a fraction of what I held in Bitcoin.

So you could say I've gone from being ~95% Bitcoin to 100%.

Sure, many BTC HODLers are likely willing to hold their BTC to zero if necessary, but that still does not seem to be a likely outcome.. so you seem a bit pie in the sky, if you believe that BTC is getting shut down any time soon, at least in terms of what investors of today should be thinking about in terms of their investment strategies and allocations into BTC.

So, yeah, I am not sure what is so funny about your purported allocations of a large amount of your value in shitcoins as compared with BTC.  Only seems to show that you had already been predisposed towards believing in shitcoins of various sorts rather than really seeming to understand, recognize or appreciate the various value propositions of bitcoin.

It’s funny back when I held BTC before it split I actually had more alt coins “just in case” (ETH, LTC, FTC, MCO, NMC, ANC, RVN & PGN) I’ve sold them all because all altcoins are trash and a liability. majority will be shut down BTC included, and there has been ample warning. Everyone thinks they will be the one to get out in time.

Lol, good luck.

Yes.. you are not helping.  Fuck those various bcash shitcoins, and any other shitcoins that you might be supporting, sgbett. 

good idea. 

Maybe not in the S-curve adoption scenario. One of these days, the price might just go vertical and then plateau, instead of the typical boom and bust cycle we all know and love. Those cycles won't last forever, I know that much. Too easy, too predictable. Whether that means we take the S-curve route or another route where BTC fails all expectations, I can't say.

You guys seem so mad all the time! It's affecting your ability to read and/or reason...

I said *if* we replay the last run up from here, the ~500k would be the top and *if* that happened I'd be surprised. ie I don't think it will. I'm not predicting it will.

Cant we all just be friends! It's ok to think something different! I'm not mad you guys are all into BTC and on the whole I'm pretty sanguine about Bitcoin thesedays.

I think that if you aren't then I think you gotta ask yourself why?

It's been like 10 years.. if Bitcoin was gonna fail it woulda failed by now. It brushed off the attempted takeover by blockstream, it dodged being co-opted by criminals, and now its scaling massively as it was predicted. Whats not to love... unless you are still trapped by dogmatic thinking, and are still backing the wrong course cos you are drunk on core-aid

Yeah, I guess that would explain the rage.... I guess i'm not helping...

Though I'm not a fervent believer in guaranteed telephone numbers I'm starting to lean towards the opposite more and more for the next few years.

When saturation has occurred and it's fully installed in the lives of people then things will level off in a significant way, but for now there's an ever increasing amount of money and people looking to secure a slowly decreasing amount of coins. And those who currently own coins are finding fewer reasons to let go of them all the time.

Smells like headroom to me.

You seem to be onto something, gentlemand.  Troll tards, such as sgbett, go extreme in one direction, and if that does not seem to be working out for them, then they go extreme in the other direction.

So yeah, I tend to agree that $500k does seem to be a bit on the outrageously UPside for what might be possible for this particular cycle and would likely end up being quite an apparent "blow off top" with negative ramifications, if it were to happen to such levels...

On the other hand, we do have a lot of weird things going on in the world (macro environment) currently, too that could contribute to the happening of such outrageousness.

I have been kind of having a tentative viewpoint that if BTC is going to continue to experience exponential rises that take place in a kind of 4 year fractal... then the extreme of the UP seems most logically going to gravitate towards playing out with less and less extremes.. but yeah, if we are measuring in dollars (fiat) then the fiat could be a poor measurement in terms of solid value so maybe we have to measure in terms of goods and/or services .. hookers, lambos and blow would not be as good of a measurement (because discretionary and luxury) as a basket of goods and services that might be more representative of basic needs such as food, housing, utilities (energy), commodities (such as steel or building/equipment supplies), communications (technology), transportation, and guns/butter (o.k.  I am being a bit flippant)... something like that.

Hey, if you still have time to cover your arse and look cool no matter what then why wouldn't you?

Not sure I've seen anyone mention 500 grand as a target and if it did manage it in the next couple of years the fallout would so grotesque I would prefer it didn't happen.

I'm not much of a one for top calls myself. I only think it'll be more out there than most dare to imagine, either to the upside or the disappointing opposite.

Oh gawd...  

Guys!!!!!   Listen, bitcoin is going to sub $2k, but it might well go to $500k first, in its last ditch impending death spiraling efforts.

That makes a lot of senses.....  

You are covered with your "insightful" prediction no matter what happens, right sgbett?

Well the depends on you definition of soon (time is running out hey, feb '21 only 6 months away)

I'm not too surprised at this current rally - all this helicopter money has to go somewhere - but I would be surprised if it makes it to the ~$500k price range that one might estimate if this proves to be the start of a run up that looks like the last one...





That part became relatively easy compared to the process of changing your mind about a deeply held conviction. see e.g: https://hbr.org/2016/11/why-the-problem-with-learning-is-unlearning

The decision was made almost impossible because of real world real world financial attachment, I think the only way I was able to do it it was because (as pointed out up thread) I'm ok with being a contrarian (ya'll remember slashdot's view on bitcoin back in 2011!).

I'm not out to change anyone else's mind, but I will continue to defend my position. I've come to the conclusion it doesn't matter now what "mom and pop retail investors" do, as we are entering a phase where Bitcoin's use value will exceed it's speculative value, and this is made all the more possible by BTC and the alt coin trash casino continuing to distract the speculators with promises of fiat riches! Just need a couple more LINKs and BSV will be out of the t10 on coinmarketcap!

Anyway, I want to re-iterate that I very much appreciate the continued discussion, so thanks to everyone for their input so far. Invaluable insights!

His prediction for bottom was not this March but next March. That is quite a big difference when real bottom was already 2 years ago.

sgbett goes into hiding when the price action is up and up, proving him wrong.

Then he waits for a strong dip to show up on this thread again, claiming he'll "soon" be right.

Classic troll. 

A major aspect of your problem.. believing that there is even such a thing as "other bitcoins"... rrrrriiiiiiiiiggggghhhhhtttt.

sorry for my rant, I really did not understand why you would do that.

I'd rather say the OP was right not wrong. we did get an unbelievable sell off in March this year for reasons nobody would predict.   The exact low price in the title did not ring up and its not reasonable to really wait for it after such a low and recovery.    Im not sure anyone successful would act this way, an exact price is not important compared to how the price action acts.    Dollar is not an accurate standard, its not static, its not linked to any fixed definition so how are we expecting a price call of this magnitude and time span to be precisely accurate.    Roughly within a thousand or so it was close enough already.

I've made that mistake with tech stocks, invested near the bottom prices now they are ridiculous high but some are justified by growth and earnings.   Fairly sure facebook on ipo about halved before rising 1000%, Im sure lots called these negatively for a few reasons.   Cheap debt and easy money confuses many bears, classic take is amateur investors will sell too early on expanding prospects and hold onto those in decline.    Profit margin expansion is exponential in its effect on a balance sheet, typically this makes commodity shares quite bonkers often and perhaps BTC is a commodity & similar movement.

Naaah. I usually don't bring up those other Bitcoins to begin with. I usually mention such when others start uttering inane ignorant untruths about them as if their fevered frenetic dreams are fairly factual. Or perhaps if I am publicly maligned. As an individual or a class.

Though the careful reader will no doubt note that in this twig I mentioned neither BSV nor BCH until this very post.

Nope. No typo. The problem is within what seems to be the reasoning. Specifically, the reasoning that those whom prefer scaling solutions of other branches than that of BTC's have 'lost it'. But whatevs.

I can live with my IQ dropping from 8001 to 8000. Is it really that little? That sounds like one hell of a deal to me.

There must be a few people lingering with well over 1000 coins. I wonder what they'll be moved to do, if they're capable of still making vocalisations.