Topic: Calling top at $16500 (Even Newer!: $2483 bottom 19 Feb 2021 MtGox said so!) - page 4. (Read 24373 times)

Well two of three is pretty good.

BSV and ETH are not much.

Doge has value for mining ⛏.

 I scored 0.4 btc merge mining it with Ltc
I still have 440,000 doge and I see 10 cents before the years end.

I will convert 1/2 to btc when it happens.
1/2 to cash 💰.

Fuck doge

and fuck BSV, too.

 

What other shitcoins you want to talk about?  ETH?

Fuck ETH.

 

I forgot about this.  Is feb 19th the day we decide? What time?

Bitstamp closing price?

As posted on this thread?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=138109.1580


pretty simple  way to get a  price.

While we are at it.

Doge to hit 10 cents by Feb 28 2021.  I  Still have more to sell.

We are supposed to be attempting to narrowing in upon what the BTC price is going to be on February 19, 2021... and not necessarily talking about a whole range of dates... I tried to guess the weighted price for that particular day... and you might be allowed an extension of time to provide your actual guess for February 19, 2021.. since you at least attempted to broach the price prediction topic.

im guessing drop to 40% of high, so lets say drop to
26k
Then slow rise this spring/summer, acceleration in autumn and moon in november/december as usual to
86.5k
Then multi-year crash and rinse repeat until 6 months after next halving

Can’t believe nobody else in a thread on *speculation* subforum dared to predict price when all you had to do was beat my 2483 guess to be able to give me some crap.

This place has changed.

3 horse race then! I look favourite still *ducks*

For all intents and purposes, I split off and sold all of my Bcash ABC .. and I did that long before the November 2018 Bcash SV split.

The only reason that I am hedging in any kind of way, is that I have a claim to some coins on WEX that would include Bcash and Bcash SV... but there is less that a .01% recovery of those coins.. and I am forced into holding anyhow... so my punchline continues to be that I do not hold Bcash regular or bcash sv through such holdings of bcash.. they are both crap even though sgbett seems to be leaning his faith towards the latter piece of crap - which seems to be the worser of the two even though there seems to be little to no redeeming value in any piece of those two shit coins.


I don't have that much faith in such piece of crap.. but hey people can do what they like in terms of holding shitcoins and believing that they have some kind of meaningful floor.

Until the moment Bitcoin holders will go and get BSV and dump it he is totally safe. Most are so rich that they dont even care about BSV. So price will never really go down. Blockchains are very resilient and they will exist decades after almost no one will use them. So he will be fine. BSV is fairly launched coin so will have no regulatory pressure from SEC as a lot coins that are today in top100 on cmc. Faketoshi will promote it until his death, so will get to media or his circus acts. 

But you are a BSV HODLer. Your old UTXOs before 2017 can be split, and you can actually “spawn” Bitcoin Cash and from it, can you spawn the fork of the fork, Bitcoin Cash SV?

You must be quite the gambler, sgbett.

I would have a difficult time sleeping having any significant value in BSV... anything beyond a few percentages of my total investment portfolio.. not that I even hold any BSV at all, but still I could see how some peeps might want to gamble with a portion of their investments.... but gambling should NOT be comprised of very large proportions, beyond a few percentage points at most.

Only the best for sgbett.



I'm told it tastes like Zima, sun tan lotion, and the sweet victory of a 7 million tps throughput.

$30,000 might be the new $10,000. Everyone will be saying, “We won’t see Bitcoin below $30,000 anymore”, but we will, and when we will, it’s actually just another golden opportunity to buy.


You’ll regret that. I believe 6 digits will be this year. You should buy actual Bitcoin, place bids below $30,000.


You are on the worst kind of hopium.

relevant yet? I'm not sure. Perhaps one more leg up? The fact that losing $30k didn't cause more of a slide must bode well.

I cut in half what remaining exposure I had (XBT Provider ETF) at around $35k. As it's been delisted due to UK FCA regs I can't buy back, so I'm closer to all in BSV than ever before

Thanks for the merit, I hear your comments and I am interested to see how reality plays out!


I think I've said in the past "Bitstamp or GTFO" when it comes to price, in any case no money is on the line so I didn't really feel the need to write an extensive list of terms and conditions. It is indeed a bit of fun based on something largely due to randomness. Glad to you have you in the game

I was vacillating a bit about whether to send a merit regarding what I consider a bit of a delusional explanation, even though it also did raise a few points.. so what the fuck.. I sent a merit.. even though from my perspective there do seem to be quite a few delusional aspects contained in your explanation.. and even a kind of false sense of importance in regards to anyone's ability to actually be able to make some kind of concrete prediction that would amount to anything much more than luck if their expectations of future events ended up playing out.



Oh gawd, sgbett.. that is such a belabored talking point that does not really seem to bear out in regards to logical reality... have you ever heard about some of the other theses in respect to stock to flow (seeming to continue to play out) or relatively BIG-mouthed and quite articulate institutional players like Michael Saylor acting in alignment with his BIG words and seeming to cause some contagiousness regarding rationale for institutions and individuals to be investing/hedging in bitcoin during such crazy-ass monetary irresponsibility times in which we seem to be living.  Sure, Saylor et al might not be specifically driving BTC's recent price move - but surely could be adding contribution to it (exacerbating a preexisting condition)... 

By the way, I hardly have many sympathies when people attempt to place too much emphasis on single (or narrow) explanation theories when it comes to bitcoin's price dynamics, and I try to avoid committing such seemingly errors myself.


deserving of a pretty BIG eyeroll here.   


The market seems to show that bitcoin is actually winning in regards to these nonsense talking points, but sure, you have rights to continue to spew them out and there are likely a lot of dummies (and even relatively smart peeps, too) who actually believe such nonsense talking points.

By the way, have you ever heard of the utility of being able to privately retain value and not having to go through any third party to transact/transfer such value, coupled with a high degree of confidence that the value that you hold is embedded into a fixed quantity that is NOT going to be diluted away from you?  Holy fucking shit!!!!!!  there seems to be a lot of utility in that mere concept of such a thing existing, and bitcoin happens to be such a thing that had never existed before and there is no other asset class (including your stupid-ass imitation scam coin, bsv) so far, that even comes close to providing the paradigm-shifting wowness of bitcoin.



Sure, a fun little game that largely is due to randomness.  By the way, how are you measuring the guess of the BTC price on 2/19? Do you do the weighted average for the day or the closing price or the low of the day?  which exchange or averager? a range of all possibilities would likely put the 95% of the BTC price bellcurve between about $12.5k and $100k, so any price guessed within such range would be reasonable with prices in the middle of the bell curve to be more likely... (phillip's guess seems pretty damned reasonable to me, too) So, with a bit of a leaning towards the lower middle of that range.. with around 38 days to go, I will randomly guess the weighted BTC price on Bitstamp based on the BTC price posted in this thread for such date to be $33,553...        you fuck 

 

Okay 24830   10x   your guess. feb 11 2021

Well look who shows up to troll, right on time. 

no top or bottom calling, just plan ol guess the price on 19th Feb & try not to be any more wrong than me

You want us to pick a bottom correct?

24830 seems okay to me puts you off by a factor of ten

I also changed the top to ?

Since thread is now about the bottom not the old top pick in which you were close IIRC

lol


oh windy, always with the ulterior motive! the thread is plainly my speculation on price action If you follow from the start it was calling the top, then it was projecting what the bottom might be if it followed the same cycle as MtGox. Obviously its been a while since then given it was a 2 year prediction and a lot has happened - any mention of BSV is just me being honest about my thoughts - I don't *think* I have recommended anyone buy it for price appreciation purposes.

It's clear by now that I am wrong in my prediction, even if by some miracle BTC went to 2k in feb *I WOULD STILL BE WRONG* because it would go there because of some - as JJG puts it - black swan type event. Not because it replayed the cycle after gox, which as you will recall was the thesis behind my prediction.

You can all ascribe motives for that but not once in the history of bitcoin talk have I ever not been honest about what I think will happen - especially in such a way that would be intended to deceive anyone into doing something. So that line af argument gets a tiresome, regardless I fully expect people to keep beating that dead horse. Dogmatic thinking will get you in trouble, maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow but in time. Those that have taken me at face value, thank you for your respect.

In summary:

- top called give or take suggested $3700 bottom
- revised bottom call to $4100
- relentless mockery all the way down to sub 4k, whoops!
- more detailed extrapolation of bottom based on first bounce and gox history suggesting the $2483 target
- 2 years of that pattern holding
- finally I acknowledge pattern is breaking down

What I did not predict was the extent to which tether would start printing USDT, which I suspect is probably a primary driver in this run. I think without that then price discovery would have played out as predicted and now would be the time to buy in for the next run (with the caveat that I doubt there would be one, given BTC utility is shot now compared to BSV and indeed all those damn alts that have profited so handsomely from core's butchering of the Bitcoin protocol).

Anyway I feel like trying to predict anything at the moment is a lottery with so many court cases up in the air and such tomfoolery in the market place where we go now is anyone's guess, so let's do it - guess the price on 19th Feb. I already chose $2483 so looks like I am going to be the furthest away

What do you all think? I'll collate guesses in this post. Deadline is 31st Jan 23:59:59 UTC

$2483	sgbett
$24830	philipma1957
$33553	JayJuanGee