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Topic: Calling top at $16500 (Even Newer!: $2483 bottom 19 Feb 2021 MtGox said so!) - page 6. (Read 24301 times)

legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1087
I'm articulate (sometimes) because I feel like its an important topic. Whilst I have no doubt many will make out like bandits from BTC price action, I think there will also be many that  "get REKT". Those people need to know the truth of what they are gambling on.

I'm polite because I don't see any point in being mad with y'all. I've always been polite because I'm not a troll, Wind_FURY correctly recognises what I am saying.

When people just dismiss it as nonsense, then there is nothing I can say - their mind is made up.

On arguments of censorship and decentralisation, we can't come to agreement because in the world of BTC these have become holy icons, pursued in and of themselves. Whereas if you look to Bitcoin you can see that they are not the goal they are means to an end (that being not having to trust a central authority). Ignoring the reasons behind is the cognitive bias of surrogation.

To be decentralised a system, simply needs to not have one central server. This has already been achieved with mining being a global operation carried out by big server farms in several different countries. You can trust the whole because you do not have to trust an individual.

If I assume correctly then the phrase censorship-resistant is being used to speak to the nature of it being extremely difficult to change the blockchain. This too has already been achieved.

Both of these pillars are supported by way of the enormous amount of capital at risk that miners have. They are profit seeking, driven to seek out other miners and collaborate wrt communications in order to maximise their profitability. A miner that doeas not do this is less profitable, a miner that tries to change the blockchain becomes a pariah they sacrifice future profitability because other miners will be less likely to trust them.

The convergence on the number of individual mining endpoints was spelled out in the white paper and has been borne out in the real world. Don't forget behind the mining endpoints of pools there are multiple miners, they too are subject to the same financial incentives detailed above, so in actual fact mining is way more decentralised than it might appear at first glance.

It seems to be the case as time moves on that the inevitability of CSW being Satoshi is causing the BTC die hards to move to a line of reasoning that it no longer matters what Satoshi said, and the the white paper is no longer important. Whats clear from this then, is you value the price of Bitcoin over its properties that allow it to be used as p2p digital cash. That you value your dislike of an individual over their argument. That you value your opinion over the truth of the matter.

To dismiss the relevance of the person that invented something implies you think they were wrong, I get the impression you certainly think CSW is wrong about a lot of things Smiley

I think it's interesting that once you get to know him you can see exactly what is going on. You guys only get to see his public face, so I can understand why you might feel the way you do about him. I hope you are able to overcome this. You. might cite this as an appeal to authority, and given the broad disagreement over whether or not Craig is a fraud, you would be right to call that. However, should it be the case that he is not a fraud then it makes him the architect of Bitcoin, as such his words will carry weight. It also makes him the 'owner' of Bitcoin and affords him certain legal rights.

Given his proclivity for courtroom drama, don't you think he might be inclined to exercise those rights. Wouldn't like to be HODLing when that day comes Smiley

Remember - don't buy BSV! Build on Bitcoin!
legendary
Activity: 2590
Merit: 3014
Welt Am Draht
Like franky1's gaslight attempts? NEVER! Cool

It's remarkable how much more longevity and 'respect' you get simply by not being moronic or abusive, or rather overtly. For some reason that sows enough doubt for people to take them seriously who otherwise wouldn't.

'Well, he uses complete sentences and sometimes they're very long. Maybe... he has a point. He must have one in there somewhere, right?.'
legendary
Activity: 2898
Merit: 1823

I believe that Bitcoin will succeed wrt its goals & I believe that BSV is the most correct implementation of the Bitcoin described in the white paper.

A statement I can respect.

Really? I'm not concerned about sticking to some dogma from a paper. Focusing on authority figures only blinds us from better solutions. I want Bitcoin to work first and foremost and that's why, for example, we can't keep increasing block size beyond actual real demand for block space. That would destroy the mining incentive that underpins the whole system.

I'm more concerned about security than what Satoshi would have wanted. How do we keep mining distributed, proof of work highly secure, and sufficient full node distribution to prevent Sybil or mining attacks? Those are the questions I would focus on, not which implementation is the most "correct."


He said, "I believe that BSV is the most correct implementation of the Bitcoin described in the white paper".

"He believes" it's the most correct implementation. It's not the usual BSVer disinformation campaign that, "BSV is Bitcoin" narrative.


You are giving sgbett too much benefit of the doubt, Wind_FURY.  Sgbett talks all kinds of nonsense, and spouts out the various Bcash and Bcash SV nonsense talking points.  Sgbett is no better than the run of the mill BSV troll or some of the other nutjobs on the interwebs, even though concededly he puts his ideas together better than the average troll, and he tends to be more polite than the average troll..  


Well sometimes Bitcoin-flat-Earthers can be respected for the moderate beliefs. Plus Bcash and Bcash SV are failed attacks, and do not threat and will never threaten Bitcoin.

Quote

At the same time, politeness and articulateness is not necessarily a good thing for troll/shills to have in the sense that it could end up luring smarter people into believing his various misleading baloney in which normie peeps may well get duped into believing him, so in that sense he still talks a decent amount of nonsense that does not deserve much if any benefit of the doubt.. in my humble bumble opinion.


Like franky1's gaslight attempts? NEVER! Cool
legendary
Activity: 3738
Merit: 10374
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
Can we have a crash because of a realisation we will not have enough vaccine ready before end of Spring?  Right now everyone have in their head, we will get vaccine in December and they will start vaccinate first medical staff and then elderly and sick. But there will be barely enough vaccine made for them until April. And only after April will be available for normal working people. Economy, stock market and Bitcoin might realise that right about in January. This plan seems to be the last rescuing straw for a $2483 bottom on 19 Feb 2021. But can it happen? I would say 99.999% nope.

Appreciate the fundamental insight, it's not something I considered. I stopped caring about the whole flu and vaccine nonsense some time ago, but this is very relevant to whole lockdown and economy crisis right now. If this is price mooning is based on bullish hopium that a vaccine will be ready next month, then I think you're right, price will correct significantly when it's clear that production and distribution will take many more months. I've already ruled out life going back to normal until Winter 2021 personally.

I really hope we don't see $2.5K next year, for most, that could signal a multi-decade long correction of sorts  Undecided

At this point, anything below $5k (or even $7k) for any kind of meaningful period of time beyond a flash cash would bring bitcoin's various price prediction models into question, and perhaps some questions about fundamental understandings of what role(s) bitcoin is actually serving.. paradigm shifting finances, sound money and hedging etc.

Sgbett's proposition of $2.5k-ish bottom in 2/21 seems to have a lot of underlying assumptions that are just NOT playing out.. not even close... They did not seem to be playing out at the time that he made his prediction, either, but they seem to be playing out way less at this time, which reasonably sgbett should just admit that he was wrong at that time, and even now the way that bitcoin is playing out even demonstrates how wrong that he was then and how wrong he continues to be to even have any kind of reasonable hope of his scenario playing out... even though on the surface, some people might have concluded that he seemed to have been making a reasonable guess.. based on the 85%-correction that followed his early December 2017 prediction... which we can see that those kinds of 85%-ish corrections are not unusual in bitcoin's pattern of performance - especially given that at the time that sgbett made that prediction, BTC prices had already gone up somewhere in the 70x territory over the late-2015 to late 2017 period.

But projecting such a BTC correction out to February 2021 seems nearly pure nonsense, and based on various presumptions that are NOT even close to be playing out... so we should not be treating sgbett's vision anywhere close to seriously.

I believe that Bitcoin will succeed wrt its goals & I believe that BSV is the most correct implementation of the Bitcoin described in the white paper.

A statement I can respect.

Really? I'm not concerned about sticking to some dogma from a paper. Focusing on authority figures only blinds us from better solutions. I want Bitcoin to work first and foremost and that's why, for example, we can't keep increasing block size beyond actual real demand for block space. That would destroy the mining incentive that underpins the whole system.

I'm more concerned about security than what Satoshi would have wanted. How do we keep mining distributed, proof of work highly secure, and sufficient full node distribution to prevent Sybil or mining attacks? Those are the questions I would focus on, not which implementation is the most "correct."


He said, "I believe that BSV is the most correct implementation of the Bitcoin described in the white paper".

"He believes" it's the most correct implementation. It's not the usual BSVer disinformation campaign that, "BSV is Bitcoin" narrative.

You are giving sgbett too much benefit of the doubt, Wind_FURY.  Sgbett talks all kinds of nonsense, and spouts out the various Bcash and Bcash SV nonsense talking points.  Sgbett is no better than the run of the mill BSV troll or some of the other nutjobs on the interwebs, even though concededly he puts his ideas together better than the average troll, and he tends to be more polite than the average troll..  At the same time, politeness and articulateness is not necessarily a good thing for troll/shills to have in the sense that it could end up luring smarter people into believing his various misleading baloney in which normie peeps may well get duped into believing him, so in that sense he still talks a decent amount of nonsense that does not deserve much if any benefit of the doubt.. in my humble bumble opinion.
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 2204
Crypto Swap Exchange
Can we have a crash because of a realisation we will not have enough vaccine ready before end of Spring?  Right now everyone have in their head, we will get vaccine in December and they will start vaccinate first medical staff and then elderly and sick. But there will be barely enough vaccine made for them until April. And only after April will be available for normal working people. Economy, stock market and Bitcoin might realise that right about in January. This plan seems to be the last rescuing straw for a $2483 bottom on 19 Feb 2021. But can it happen? I would say 99.999% nope.

Appreciate the fundamental insight, it's not something I considered. I stopped caring about the whole flu and vaccine nonsense some time ago, but this is very relevant to whole lockdown and economy crisis right now. If this is price mooning is based on bullish hopium that a vaccine will be ready next month, then I think you're right, price will correct significantly when it's clear that production and distribution will take many more months. I've already ruled out life going back to normal until Winter 2021 personally.

I really hope we don't see $2.5K next year, for most, that could signal a multi-decade long correction of sorts  Undecided
legendary
Activity: 2898
Merit: 1823
I believe that Bitcoin will succeed wrt its goals & I believe that BSV is the most correct implementation of the Bitcoin described in the white paper.

A statement I can respect.

Really? I'm not concerned about sticking to some dogma from a paper. Focusing on authority figures only blinds us from better solutions. I want Bitcoin to work first and foremost and that's why, for example, we can't keep increasing block size beyond actual real demand for block space. That would destroy the mining incentive that underpins the whole system.

I'm more concerned about security than what Satoshi would have wanted. How do we keep mining distributed, proof of work highly secure, and sufficient full node distribution to prevent Sybil or mining attacks? Those are the questions I would focus on, not which implementation is the most "correct."



He said, "I believe that BSV is the most correct implementation of the Bitcoin described in the white paper".

"He believes" it's the most correct implementation. It's not the usual BSVer disinformation campaign that, "BSV is Bitcoin" narrative.

But, shower thought, if Satoshi returned and said that his implementation as described in the white paper sacrifices decentralization for more transaction-throughput, and that he prefers that Bitcoin should sacrifice mass adoption/transaction-throughput for decentralization/censorship-resistance, would your belief change?

What if he did the exact opposite, and vouched for gigabyte blocks? Tongue


Then Satoshi himself would be risking Bitcoin's main value proposition. Cool
legendary
Activity: 2842
Merit: 3518
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You are right about rabbit holes. The first one I fell was the Bitcoin one all those years ago. Back then I frequented slashdot a fair amount, and the abuse you got on there for being pro-bitcoin was quite something Smiley just wait til you hear my views on covid they get me in some right trouble Wink

This just gave me some shivers. I was prowling around slashdot in my youth (heh) and lurking around, there were quite a few Bitcoin rabbitholers with the new wave of millennials (the actual generation born in the 1990s), actually wish I'd paid them a lot more attention.

I'd really like to hear your views on covid some day;) You are. Entertaining.

*from the occasional lurker on this thread*

P.S. Any thoughts from any of you on these new letters -- some interesting discussions on the earliest concerns when Satoshi released his white paper. Be forewarned, this is Coindesk, I'm not sure where their allegiance lies these days.
legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1521
I believe that Bitcoin will succeed wrt its goals & I believe that BSV is the most correct implementation of the Bitcoin described in the white paper.

A statement I can respect.

Really? I'm not concerned about sticking to some dogma from a paper. Focusing on authority figures only blinds us from better solutions. I want Bitcoin to work first and foremost and that's why, for example, we can't keep increasing block size beyond actual real demand for block space. That would destroy the mining incentive that underpins the whole system.

I'm more concerned about security than what Satoshi would have wanted. How do we keep mining distributed, proof of work highly secure, and sufficient full node distribution to prevent Sybil or mining attacks? Those are the questions I would focus on, not which implementation is the most "correct."

But, shower thought, if Satoshi returned and said that his implementation as described in the white paper sacrifices decentralization for more transaction-throughput, and that he prefers that Bitcoin should sacrifice mass adoption/transaction-throughput for decentralization/censorship-resistance, would your belief change?

What if he did the exact opposite, and vouched for gigabyte blocks? Tongue
legendary
Activity: 2730
Merit: 1288
Can we have a crash because of a realisation we will not have enough vaccine ready before end of Spring?  Right now everyone have in their head, we will get vaccine in December and they will start vaccinate first medical staff and then elderly and sick. But there will be barely enough vaccine made for them until April. And only after April will be available for normal working people. Economy, stock market and Bitcoin might realise that right about in January. This plan seems to be the last rescuing straw for a $2483 bottom on 19 Feb 2021. But can it happen? I would say 99.999% nope.
legendary
Activity: 2898
Merit: 1823
wait, you are still a BSV believer sgbett?  Undecided

I believe that Bitcoin will succeed wrt its goals & I believe that BSV is the most correct implementation of the Bitcoin described in the white paper.


A statement I can respect. But, shower thought, if Satoshi returned and said that his implementation as described in the white paper sacrifices decentralization for more transaction-throughput, and that he prefers that Bitcoin should sacrifice mass adoption/transaction-throughput for decentralization/censorship-resistance, would your belief change?
legendary
Activity: 3738
Merit: 10374
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Dear sgbett,

For some parts (you'll have to do your best to determine what goes where): Hmm... I see... OK... Well I see what you're saying, and now that I think about it I don't like it when people are dicks to me in my threads either, so I apologize for being abrasive.

Other parts: My honest opinion is you've fallen down some sorts of conspiracy rabbitholes after rabbitholes and I acknowledge there's not much I can say to change your mind, so Imma bow out and let you have at it.

Let's agree to disagree as the kids say, and peace out.

Heheh, thats nice of you to say. Certainly we can disagree.

You are right about rabbit holes. The first one I fell was the Bitcoin one all those years ago. Back then I frequented slashdot a fair amount, and the abuse you got on there for being pro-bitcoin was quite something Smiley just wait til you hear my views on covid they get me in some right trouble Wink

Your views on bitcoin are bad enough... .Please don't torture us with other topics.   Tongue Tongue
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1087

Dear sgbett,

For some parts (you'll have to do your best to determine what goes where): Hmm... I see... OK... Well I see what you're saying, and now that I think about it I don't like it when people are dicks to me in my threads either, so I apologize for being abrasive.

Other parts: My honest opinion is you've fallen down some sorts of conspiracy rabbitholes after rabbitholes and I acknowledge there's not much I can say to change your mind, so Imma bow out and let you have at it.

Let's agree to disagree as the kids say, and peace out.

Heheh, thats nice of you to say. Certainly we can disagree.

You are right about rabbit holes. The first one I fell was the Bitcoin one all those years ago. Back then I frequented slashdot a fair amount, and the abuse you got on there for being pro-bitcoin was quite something Smiley just wait til you hear my views on covid they get me in some right trouble Wink

legendary
Activity: 3010
Merit: 8114

Dear sgbett,

For some parts (you'll have to do your best to determine what goes where): Hmm... I see... OK... Well I see what you're saying, and now that I think about it I don't like it when people are dicks to me in my threads either, so I apologize for being abrasive.

Other parts: My honest opinion is you've fallen down some sorts of conspiracy rabbitholes after rabbitholes and I acknowledge there's not much I can say to change your mind, so Imma bow out and let you have at it.

Let's agree to disagree as the kids say, and peace out.
legendary
Activity: 3598
Merit: 5069
I sincerely hope nobody buys BSV to speculate, because that is not what it is for.

I sincerely hope so too. I'm hopeful that BSV's demand is so low that BSV's fiat value can't even keep up with fiat inflation. That way BSV hodlers continue to get poorer and poorer over time.

But o' boy, they (all 12 of them hodlers) can at least spend their BSV on....well....nothing really.  Embarrassed
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1087
From a trader's perspective, a better way to view this is that he predicted an 87% decline when the market actually declined 84%.

This part I can't argue with.

Why is that? Because the market fell $16,544 instead of $17,183? That makes all the difference in the world?

Even when I agree with you, you're still arguing with me? That doesn't make sense. I just said I can't argue with it. What more do you want?

Honestly, you seem like you're on some crusade to prove him wrong because of his association with BSV. I don't care about any of that baggage, nor do I follow this thread. In fact, I find the whole Bitcoin vs. altcoin debate tiresome. I only care about increasing my BTC stash, so I applaud those willing to discuss price analysis and put their predictions out there publicly. I am less impressed by those who only have insults to offer.

Honestly I don't like it when people pretend a knockoff of a knockoff lead by an absolute fraud is Bitcoin. I understand they have a right to say that, and I have a right to ridicule them for it. Letting people shill for a scam uninterrupted here is not something I'm going to just dismiss. If you don't like it, just put me on ignore. sgbett also has that ability.

Regardless, its not me that's proving sgbett wrong, its both time and reality, and I don't know why you think I would care what you find tiresome. I just find it entertaining when people are simultaneously so confident and so wrong. Perhaps I'm just envious at that type of ability.

Have a great Thanksgiving!

But nutildah old boy, time and reality *are* proving me right. That you are not convinced of the evidence before your eyes does not make the truth anything other than it is.

The vigour with which you protest says much more than the literal meaning of your words. Of course you have a right to ridicule people, but what does exercising that right say about you? About your motives? About your thought process? About your world view?

I give thanks to Bitcoin, to the white paper, and to what I think will be a brighter future because of its technological advancements. Those technological advancements are no longer possible using BTC. BTC's value proposition is price. That the number will always go up. It's a trading vehicle, nothing more. People can speculate on BTC all they want - no skin off my nose.

BSV will continue to implement Bitcoin as it was designed, and really why should that bother you if you are so convinced that it is doomed to fail, or that it is a scam or that the Aussie man is bad.

Don't you think everyone will get what they deserve in the end?

Kleiman, McCormack, Zhao, Powell, Back... and so many others... all gloriously fighting for you the HODLers, out of the goodness of their hearts Smiley curse that time and reality... tick tock... my patience endures, you forget I've been a strident believer in Bitcoin for a long time and in that time I have learned a great many things and whilst I know more than most I dont confuse that with thinking I know all I need to know, because that kind of dogmatic belief can get you in trouble.

I link that thread because it highlights a point I want to make. That bigger blocks was just a sideshow, a distraction created by coreBlockstream to keep people arguing (as im sure you remember brg444 later became Blockstream PR) whilst they went ahead and co-opted development to build their side chain to leech profit. As was predicted by many at the time - not just me, and was loudly dismissed and then came to be. Even now people deny what is in plain sight, I suspect simple greed and lack of historical context. I've *seen* things, I see more things everyday because I have access to information that many people do not, that's why I am confident in what I believe.

Script is the real pearl in the oyster. Right there at the start of it all! That's why Ethereum was born. How many times must the pattern repeat before people see it. Vitalik (and others) saw the potential in Bitcoin - I didn't understand this until Craig gave his Arnheim talk yes he's uncomfortable to watch at times, but maybe people should look past that at what he is saying! Sadly, most refuse to - certain in their assessment of his character. The point is that core hamstrung that feature so Vitalik made his own (sadly substandard, because it doesn't scale the way Bitcoin does). Core refused to scale, so other created their own coins (LTC et al). Core introduced soft-forking so others preserved Bitcoin (BCH). I would go so far as to say that core are primarily responsible for the entire alt coin market. Ironically the one coin they are not responsible for is BSV, because that was Amaury Sachets doing! (Look at how he did it again recently lol).

I sincerely hope nobody buys BSV to speculate, because that is not what it is for. If you want to make money, build something using Bitcoin - you know, the old fashioned way, where you earn money for working, for doing things, for making society better. Rather than parasitically leeching off the system. There is a huge opportunity in the Bitcoin space right now building on metanet, some companies see this and they don't give a damn about what Bitcointalk thinks. Bitcoin is growing up.
legendary
Activity: 3010
Merit: 8114
From a trader's perspective, a better way to view this is that he predicted an 87% decline when the market actually declined 84%.

This part I can't argue with.

Why is that? Because the market fell $16,544 instead of $17,183? That makes all the difference in the world?

Even when I agree with you, you're still arguing with me? That doesn't make sense. I just said I can't argue with it. What more do you want?

Honestly, you seem like you're on some crusade to prove him wrong because of his association with BSV. I don't care about any of that baggage, nor do I follow this thread. In fact, I find the whole Bitcoin vs. altcoin debate tiresome. I only care about increasing my BTC stash, so I applaud those willing to discuss price analysis and put their predictions out there publicly. I am less impressed by those who only have insults to offer.

Honestly I don't like it when people pretend a knockoff of a knockoff lead by an absolute fraud is Bitcoin. I understand they have a right to say that, and I have a right to ridicule them for it. Letting people shill for a scam uninterrupted here is not something I'm going to just dismiss. If you don't like it, just put me on ignore. sgbett also has that ability.

Regardless, its not me that's proving sgbett wrong, its both time and reality, and I don't know why you think I would care what you find tiresome. I just find it entertaining when people are simultaneously so confident and so wrong. Perhaps I'm just envious at that type of ability.

Have a great Thanksgiving!
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1087
... I am less impressed by those who only have insults to offer.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VfcS-uuI8A4

props to you exstasie for being objective, regardless of whether we agree!
legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1521
From a trader's perspective, a better way to view this is that he predicted an 87% decline when the market actually declined 84%.

This part I can't argue with.

Why is that? Because the market fell $16,544 instead of $17,183? That makes all the difference in the world?

The rest of what you wrote is just ignoring the fact that anybody can say anything, and does. If I make 100 predictions, complete with price and time, a few of them are bound to be relatively accurate.

Okay. All I suggested was that one prediction was relatively accurate, at least in regards to price.

sgbett was "right" (if you want to call it that) once in early 2018, he's been incredibly wrong on all fronts since then. But if you want to focus on the one time he made a "right" prediction and ignore all the wrong ones, that's up to you.

I was discussing that one prediction because it was the one being discussed. In fact, it was the prediction you were discussing. Smiley

Honestly, you seem like you're on some crusade to prove him wrong because of his association with BSV. I don't care about any of that baggage, nor do I follow this thread. In fact, I find the whole Bitcoin vs. altcoin debate tiresome. I only care about increasing my BTC stash, so I applaud those willing to discuss price analysis and put their predictions out there publicly. I am less impressed by those who only have insults to offer.
legendary
Activity: 3010
Merit: 8114
From a trader's perspective, a better way to view this is that he predicted an 87% decline when the market actually declined 84%.

This part I can't argue with.

The rest of what you wrote is just ignoring the fact that anybody can say anything, and does. If I make 100 predictions, complete with price and time, a few of them are bound to be relatively accurate.

sgbett was "right" (if you want to call it that) once in early 2018, he's been incredibly wrong on all fronts since then. But if you want to focus on the one time he made a "right" prediction and ignore all the wrong ones, that's up to you.



Yes I am absolutely blown away with the price action on BTC.

Do I feel remorse that I don't hold any? Not one bit. The risk is way too high for me. I'll stick with Bitcoin Wink

Don't be like sgbett kids or you'll end up like this, a member of a bitcoin forum for 9 years yet still unsure of what Bitcoin even is.  Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1521
I'd say predicting $2,483 for the post-bubble bottom, when it was actually $3,122 (December 2018) or $3,850 (March 2020) was still pretty damn impressive. Credit where credit is due, it wasn't a bad call.

That's your opinion. If you think being off by more than 20% in a price prediction is "impressive," that just means you're easily impressed.

From a trader's perspective, a better way to view this is that he predicted an 87% decline when the market actually declined 84%.

We're talking about calling the bottom of a post-bubble crash before the bubble even popped. Most experienced traders wouldn't even bother making predictions like that because they are so speculative and the magnitudes in question are so large. So yes I think it's impressive.

Do you know of some better predictions from 2017? I'd love to see what a truly "impressive" prediction looks like.

Give it a try yourself regarding the next bubble. I'd love to see how close you get.

BTW, time itself is completely predictable. Its one of the most predictable things in the known universe. The rate at which carbon atoms decay has not changed for billions of years.

What does that have to do with predicting the exact time BTC will touch certain prices in the future?

If somebody makes a call that takes decades to manifest or never manifests within our lifetimes but afterward, is that call also "correct?"

You sure don't sound like a trader. I care a lot more about whether an idea is generally correct regarding direction, trend, and magnitude than whether it hits the price or time target exactly.

Things rarely work out exactly as planned. Markets simply aren't that predictable. Trading is more about getting things right in broad strokes and then using proper risk management to hedge against unpredictability. That's why it's so silly to say he's off by 761%, since we were trading in the $3,000s just months ago.
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