Topic: Calling top at $16500 (Even Newer!: $2483 bottom 19 Feb 2021 MtGox said so!) - page 6. (Read 24373 times)

I'm articulate (sometimes) because I feel like its an important topic. Whilst I have no doubt many will make out like bandits from BTC price action, I think there will also be many that  "get REKT". Those people need to know the truth of what they are gambling on.

I'm polite because I don't see any point in being mad with y'all. I've always been polite because I'm not a troll, Wind_FURY correctly recognises what I am saying.

When people just dismiss it as nonsense, then there is nothing I can say - their mind is made up.

On arguments of censorship and decentralisation, we can't come to agreement because in the world of BTC these have become holy icons, pursued in and of themselves. Whereas if you look to Bitcoin you can see that they are not the goal they are means to an end (that being not having to trust a central authority). Ignoring the reasons behind is the cognitive bias of surrogation.

To be decentralised a system, simply needs to not have one central server. This has already been achieved with mining being a global operation carried out by big server farms in several different countries. You can trust the whole because you do not have to trust an individual.

If I assume correctly then the phrase censorship-resistant is being used to speak to the nature of it being extremely difficult to change the blockchain. This too has already been achieved.

Both of these pillars are supported by way of the enormous amount of capital at risk that miners have. They are profit seeking, driven to seek out other miners and collaborate wrt communications in order to maximise their profitability. A miner that doeas not do this is less profitable, a miner that tries to change the blockchain becomes a pariah they sacrifice future profitability because other miners will be less likely to trust them.

The convergence on the number of individual mining endpoints was spelled out in the white paper and has been borne out in the real world. Don't forget behind the mining endpoints of pools there are multiple miners, they too are subject to the same financial incentives detailed above, so in actual fact mining is way more decentralised than it might appear at first glance.

It seems to be the case as time moves on that the inevitability of CSW being Satoshi is causing the BTC die hards to move to a line of reasoning that it no longer matters what Satoshi said, and the the white paper is no longer important. Whats clear from this then, is you value the price of Bitcoin over its properties that allow it to be used as p2p digital cash. That you value your dislike of an individual over their argument. That you value your opinion over the truth of the matter.

To dismiss the relevance of the person that invented something implies you think they were wrong, I get the impression you certainly think CSW is wrong about a lot of things

I think it's interesting that once you get to know him you can see exactly what is going on. You guys only get to see his public face, so I can understand why you might feel the way you do about him. I hope you are able to overcome this. You. might cite this as an appeal to authority, and given the broad disagreement over whether or not Craig is a fraud, you would be right to call that. However, should it be the case that he is not a fraud then it makes him the architect of Bitcoin, as such his words will carry weight. It also makes him the 'owner' of Bitcoin and affords him certain legal rights.

Given his proclivity for courtroom drama, don't you think he might be inclined to exercise those rights. Wouldn't like to be HODLing when that day comes

Remember - don't buy BSV! Build on Bitcoin!

It's remarkable how much more longevity and 'respect' you get simply by not being moronic or abusive, or rather overtly. For some reason that sows enough doubt for people to take them seriously who otherwise wouldn't.

'Well, he uses complete sentences and sometimes they're very long. Maybe... he has a point. He must have one in there somewhere, right?.'

Well sometimes Bitcoin-flat-Earthers can be respected for the moderate beliefs. Plus Bcash and Bcash SV are failed attacks, and do not threat and will never threaten Bitcoin.


Like franky1's gaslight attempts? NEVER!

At this point, anything below $5k (or even $7k) for any kind of meaningful period of time beyond a flash cash would bring bitcoin's various price prediction models into question, and perhaps some questions about fundamental understandings of what role(s) bitcoin is actually serving.. paradigm shifting finances, sound money and hedging etc.

Sgbett's proposition of $2.5k-ish bottom in 2/21 seems to have a lot of underlying assumptions that are just NOT playing out.. not even close... They did not seem to be playing out at the time that he made his prediction, either, but they seem to be playing out way less at this time, which reasonably sgbett should just admit that he was wrong at that time, and even now the way that bitcoin is playing out even demonstrates how wrong that he was then and how wrong he continues to be to even have any kind of reasonable hope of his scenario playing out... even though on the surface, some people might have concluded that he seemed to have been making a reasonable guess.. based on the 85%-correction that followed his early December 2017 prediction... which we can see that those kinds of 85%-ish corrections are not unusual in bitcoin's pattern of performance - especially given that at the time that sgbett made that prediction, BTC prices had already gone up somewhere in the 70x territory over the late-2015 to late 2017 period.

But projecting such a BTC correction out to February 2021 seems nearly pure nonsense, and based on various presumptions that are NOT even close to be playing out... so we should not be treating sgbett's vision anywhere close to seriously.


You are giving sgbett too much benefit of the doubt, Wind_FURY.  Sgbett talks all kinds of nonsense, and spouts out the various Bcash and Bcash SV nonsense talking points.  Sgbett is no better than the run of the mill BSV troll or some of the other nutjobs on the interwebs, even though concededly he puts his ideas together better than the average troll, and he tends to be more polite than the average troll..  At the same time, politeness and articulateness is not necessarily a good thing for troll/shills to have in the sense that it could end up luring smarter people into believing his various misleading baloney in which normie peeps may well get duped into believing him, so in that sense he still talks a decent amount of nonsense that does not deserve much if any benefit of the doubt.. in my humble bumble opinion.

Appreciate the fundamental insight, it's not something I considered. I stopped caring about the whole flu and vaccine nonsense some time ago, but this is very relevant to whole lockdown and economy crisis right now. If this is price mooning is based on bullish hopium that a vaccine will be ready next month, then I think you're right, price will correct significantly when it's clear that production and distribution will take many more months. I've already ruled out life going back to normal until Winter 2021 personally.

I really hope we don't see $2.5K next year, for most, that could signal a multi-decade long correction of sorts  

He said, "I believe that BSV is the most correct implementation of the Bitcoin described in the white paper".

"He believes" it's the most correct implementation. It's not the usual BSVer disinformation campaign that, "BSV is Bitcoin" narrative.


What if he did the exact opposite, and vouched for gigabyte blocks?