Topic: Calling top at $16500 (Even Newer!: $2483 bottom 19 Feb 2021 MtGox said so!) - page 8. (Read 24301 times)

I still  say we correct in the 25-30k price range. in jan 2021


dropping to 12-14k in summer.

with the big run close to 75-99k dec 2021.

after that all bets are off.

as for bsv or bch nope 👎

doge and ltc cover the cash idea pretty well.

That's just an after the fact rationalization. Bad news just catalyzes corrections that were going to happen anyway, which is why you see the 2016-2017 market littered with 30-40% corrections throughout. If it wasn't the ETF rejection in March, it would have been something else. That spike through the 2013 ATH and crash back below was likely to happen regardless. Very typical move in a bull market at resistance. Nobody should be surprised to see similar action in the $20K area next time around either.

^^ Just for the record though, the "March 2017 from nearly $1,300 to $900" was due to the supposedly ETF filing by the twins and the hope that it will get approved by SEC, but it was rejected, hence the price goes down abruptly. As for the "late 2017 from $19,666 to $3,124", we are already in the bubble phase.

But currently @16,500 it was not even the top, so bitcoin being a speculative asset, we still have a lot of leg room to wiggle so I would say that it is still not the top price that we have seen. 

Yes, $16.5k is relevant.  It is within about 16% of the previous ATH... and it is relevant because it represents about a 65% increase in our latest mini-bullrun from September 3-ish to present.... so of course, a correction could happen at any time (as is always the case when the price goes up without meaningful corrections along the way), but still does not mean that such hypothesized correction will happen.

TLDR:  There is something to it.  If any of us keep predicting down, sooner or later some kind of down is going to happen.      Just like it did in December 2017 when sgbett made his so "insightful" prediction, even if this time around such correction will likely resemble either the correction that took place in mid 2016 from nearly $800 to $300 (not as likely) or the one in March 2017 from nearly $1,300 to $900 (more likely, though a mere possibility than a likelihood) rather than the one that took place in late 2017 from $19,666 to $3,124.

It's ironic how this thread now makes me wonder whether we've topped out for now, and may need a deeper correction before continuing higher.
There might be something still relevant about $16.5K based on current short-term pull-back from this level, as well as previous rejection level.

wait, you are still a BSV believer sgbett? 

I'm sure this thread will get the occasional necro bump in the future, either to gloat or when it hits $2483 billion per coin. Or $24.83. One to add to future hair raising reading for new arrivals either way.

No matter what it's turned into, the initial call was certainly on point and delivered at the right time.

Every time we have a price movement, this thread comes up. I hope we pass $16.5k soon and so this thread can RIP...

Thanks for taking the time to write this detailed response. I understand your position as I have had similar thoughts in the time I have spent learning about Bitcoin, however in this time my opinions have changed. 

I've held the speculative vs utility value belief for many years and I still do. I think that eventually utility value will dwarf speculative price action as Bitcoin matures. Whilst I can see the comparison to gold wrt store of value, I don't think that is the same as thing as speculative use we see now in BTC (and other tokens). Store of value is "number doesn't go down", whereas speculation (as I am using it) is "number goes up".

I believe that deviating from Bitcoin's original design where 'it doesn't really hit a scale ceiling" was a mistake and that the sigmoid "adoption" curve was significantly set back - remember as companies adopted BTC for payments (MS,CEX,Steam etc) and then slowly over the years walked back that position. I see this as a direct result of BTC no longer being useful as digital cash. Digital cash needs boundless scale.

Since the original Gox spike I would suggest that all price action on BTC has been purely speculative based on FOMO. I don't think that is the same as gold. This explains the price differential. BSV is the ugly duckling and so has virtually no speculative value (perhaps even negative!?). This is due to the still widespread belief that crypto is designed to 'beat the system' (yes I did once think that was its purpose), and BSV being clearly in opposition to this. So the whole crowd on Bitcointalk and in Cryptotwitter are dead against it. I was in this camp, now I'm not. Now I understand the power of SCRIPT and what it enables, why bitcoin is not anonymous, why the protocol has to be fixed (and can be.. SCRIPT is your '2nd layer').

The reason I think (now, more so then ever) that utility will dwarf speculative value is because I can now clearly see just how big (tx throughput) Bitcoin can be. I see big companies that are well underway implementing massive scale operations that were previously unthinkable, both due to lack of scale and lack of functionality - Bitcoin fixes this . As this plays out, then those tiny sub-cent fees add up to A LOT. That's what will drive miners to move hash rate. That's what snowballs and leads to chain death. That's your extinction event.

Satoshi had all this figured out and once you see how it all fits together it's incredible. Knowing what is coming is enough for me, when I posted this thread it was based on price action from gox and "all things being equal" things have changed a lot so I can handle being tarred and feathered

Enjoy your price pump! I know what its like, the euphoria, the disbelief at it making new highs, more euphoria ... good times and don't let it mess you up too much. I'll sit this one out, feels kind of peaceful for a change

When? You have until Feb 19th of next year before you are tarred and feathered, run out of town for heresy.

"Everyone can be right about anything given a long enough time frame." - nutildah

Every asset is speculative in nature unless you can't store it, there is no such thing as "true value" or "fair value" if people didn't buy gold for speculative reasons it wouldn't be worth a fraction of what it's worth now, only a small percentage of that gold is actually used.

People look for scarcity, a hedge against other means of assets that are highly inflated, they only do that in an attempt to be able to sell/exchange that asset for a larger value in the future, if people didn't buy BTC or any other crypto for that matter just to be able to exchange them for more, none of those coins would have existed in the first place.

I understand that there are some people who MIGHT be in it " for the technology", I would bet against their existence, or in the worst case, I am sure they are a minority, and the minority doesn't drive the market, it's the majority.

On the other hand, more adoption doesn't always lead to more value, we could have double the adoption with 99% less value, if tomorrow everyone and their grandmother start using bitcoin there is no absolute certainty that price/value will go up, but if they buy it as a store of value instead - price will increase without a doubt.

I do think you are smart, I enjoyed reading your comments, however, the problem with your logic (and most of the BSV, Bcash) supporters is that you seem to think that "useability" and "value" are related, which is NOT the case, the proof is, BSV has much more daily transactions and it's almost free to transact, in fact, BTC is one of the slowest (if not the most)and the most expensive to use, but BTC has 100,000% more value than BSV.

Have you ever thought about the possibility that cryptocurrencies might never beat the old system? what makes you think that a blockchain which is bottlenecked by so many factors will beat a single high-end server in terms of speed and price? maybe the majority of people don't plan on using crypto for their daily payments? if speed and cheap fees are the only two things bitcoin can offer then it's worthless, we already have fast and cheap means of payments.

Maybe if you think about it this way, you will understand that BTC derives its value from "consensus", not only miners' consensus, investors, the average joe, and joe's grandmother, the MAJORITY of people agree on BTC, they have no problem with the blocksize (they probably don't even know what that is), they just know it's a scarce asset, has very low and known inflation rate, secured by tens of thousands of nodes and millions of mining gears, those factors alone have been more than enough to keep BTC as strong as it is today.

The block size debate has been milked a thousand times before, so there is no need to go over it again, and as far as the price expectation, I won't say I am certain that you are completely wrong, I know that the next few months will most likely be bullish across all markets and then soon after that the stock 11-year-old bubble will burst, that will be the first burst with BTC around, we don't know how will crypto market as a whole react to that, it could take it to the moon, or it could drag it down for a multi-year bear market, we shall see.


 

Actually, I never pay any attention to shill accusations. Everyone's a shill of some sort, and I rather think anyone with any skin in BSV's now really just quietly accepted that their fortunes ultimately -- in this lifetimes anyway -- rely on Bitcoin doing well. If BTC goes to $2k, I can only imagine the panic and mass culling of altcoins after.

As you said, BTC going up because it's useful is of interest to anyone, agnostic of the blockchain or network they profess.

"We have such sights to show you"

You sound ridiculous for the simple reason that you are ridiculous. Short of an extinction-level event, we're never coming anywhere near $2k ever again (at least not for decades). Just because you're older now that you decide to cross over to the wrong side of the fence it doesn't also mean that you are smarter or wiser.


Have fun waiting. How many laps around the block do you have to take before you realize nobody wants to use a coin developed by a con artist?

sgbett having a beer

Hello folks, just wanted to pop in because in the past I've been accused of only showing up when things are going my way

I'm not totally surprised that the price action is so ebullient, and I was certainly wrong on the way we get to $2k but I still think thats where its headed. (I also remember being on the other side of the fence over the years, and how ridiculous I must sound to you!)

To the guy that bought at $500 and sold at $12k - dude, look at your gains!!! Lamenting what could have been is a terrible thing to do if you are trading! It's way easier selling on the way up than panic selling when it comes crashing down. In any case I don't advocate trading, I've learned my lessons.

Finally to those that still use the "BSV shill" phrase - I'm not suggesting anyone buy BSV. It makes no difference to me if people buy it, because if the price goes up for speculative reasons thats meaningless (that person will want to sell it). The price of Bitcoin going up because its becoming more and more useful... thats what I am interested in.

I'm also incredibly patient, the first 10 years were hardest. I think the next 10 will be much easier, having been around the block.

Enjoy it whilst it lasts

It is not that you sold at 12k.  You failed to buy back some when it went under 10k.

If you are going to time market and guess at a price. In your case 12K you need to time market for buy the dip.

lets make it simple you had 10 btc and sold 8 for 12k each.

that is 96 k. so when coin dropped to 9999 you should have purchased the entire 8 btc  back.

it would have cost you 80 k. meaning you have same 10 coins and 16k cash.

so the fail was not the 80% sale in august and july .  the fail was not buying back on the dip.

my example used 10 btc and selling 8 btc.  you end up with same 10 btc and 16k profit.

but it works with

1 btc and .8 btc. you end up with same 1 btc and 1600 cash 💰

Waiting for a correction may or may not play out.

And, surely each of us would approach such a situation with a different approach... geez, we had a correction to $10k in late August/Early September - and for the most part that was the last meaningful correction that we had.. all the way from $10k-ish in early September to nearly $16k in the last couple of days.  Sure, there might be a meaningful correction, but there might not.

For the last year and a half or so, I had been suggesting that if we break above $13,880 (which we did, of course) then the next meaningful resistance would be in the sub $17,250 price arena.. and if we break above $17,250, then we enter into no man's land, which is largely the price range between about $17,250 and $23,500... which it is hard to expect meaningful corrections in the no man's land price range...

Anyhow, you should consider your situation in such a way that you feel comfortable that you are prepared for both UP and DOWN... and surely we might even experience a 50% correction from here.. but sometimes, bitcoin gets into a kind of punishment mood.. and keeps recking anyone who is either shorting it or expecting down or flat.. which causes nocoiners to rush in, which may or may not work out for them... so the better advice has already been provided in terms of listening to some random dweeb on the interwebs.. and my advice is almost always to make sure that you are prepared for both UP and DOWN in both psychological and financial ways.. and sometimes preparing for such (both) can take a decently long time to work out.. especially if you have made some decently-sized mistakes along the way (which seems to be the case with you, hotpassion, if we can actually take you at your word for having had sold all your coins at $12k-ish.. and failed/refused to buy back when the BTC price dropped because you were hopening for lower prices... blah blah blah... greed and gambling is frequently an enemy and incrementalism tends to work a bit better, even if it tends to take quite a bit longer for real peeps to really solidify)..

You are right. I should do my own research and should not be affected by other's ideas here in the forum. Someone may predict correct one time but his predictions may not be correct the 2nd time. We need to trust on ourself, trust on BTC.
My story:
I bought BTCs in 2016 - 2017 when the price is just from $500 to around $7k and didn't sell when it reached ATH in 2017 year end. From 2018 to mid 2020, I still bought in whenever I have fund available. However, I converted 80% of my portfolio to fiat in July, August when the price is near 12k, because I thought this maybe the Top price of 2020. It was such a bad decision. I will buy BTC again when the next correction happen. And I will not sell my BTCs again before it reach 100k, even I have to wait for the next cycle in 2025-2026.

Decline yes, but not a plunge like that again because of that. And humanity doesn't have any choice but to take on the chin and plough on. If it becomes an eternal fact of life a route to cope will be figured out.