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Topic: Calling top at $16500 (Even Newer!: $2483 bottom 19 Feb 2021 MtGox said so!) - page 7. (Read 24373 times)

legendary
Activity: 3010
Merit: 8114
I'd say predicting $2,483 for the post-bubble bottom, when it was actually $3,122 (December 2018) or $3,850 (March 2020) was still pretty damn impressive. Credit where credit is due, it wasn't a bad call.

That's your opinion. If you think being off by more than 20% in a price prediction is "impressive," that just means you're easily impressed.

BTW, time itself is completely predictable. Its one of the most predictable things in the known universe. The rate at which carbon atoms decay has not changed for billions of years. If somebody makes a call that takes decades to manifest or never manifests within our lifetimes but afterward, is that call also "correct?"
legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1521
I recommend shifting the focus of this thread to guessing how wrong sgbett was from his prediction on the date of Feb 19, 2021. He's currently off by 761%; I'm going to round it up to an even number and guess he was off by 1,000%. Which would put the price of BTC at $24,830 on that date.

Time is very unpredictable. It's the toughest part of trading.

I'd say predicting $2,483 for the post-bubble bottom, when it was actually $3,122 (December 2018) or $3,850 (March 2020) was still pretty damn impressive. Credit where credit is due, it wasn't a bad call.

I just disagree with him now about whether it's still in play. He should have considered this idea dead once the February 2020 (and definitely the June 2019) highs were breached. Too biased.....
legendary
Activity: 2590
Merit: 3015
Welt Am Draht
Same could be said of Bitcoin Gold, lol.

Yup. Any shitfork still alive and tradable will likely provide a better return than their daddy provided you run for it in time. I wonder if any dead ones will be revived. And let us not forget Bitcoin Gold outdid Bitcoin in volume in South Korea for brief periods. But the traders are all idiotic nutters there by the sounds of it.
legendary
Activity: 3710
Merit: 5286
It's very likely the two cheap bitcoin knockoffs (BCH and BSV) will become increasingly irrelevant as time passes since they offer nothing that a thousand other blockchains don't already offer and their whole identity is built on a marketing scheme of fraudulent claims.

They have 'Bitcoin' in the name and they're 'cheaper'. That is enough for them to last forever and more than likely make anyone who buys them in a lull far more profit than Bitcoin will. It's odious but that's human nature and that don't ever change.

Same could be said of Bitcoin Gold, lol.
legendary
Activity: 2590
Merit: 3015
Welt Am Draht
It's very likely the two cheap bitcoin knockoffs (BCH and BSV) will become increasingly irrelevant as time passes since they offer nothing that a thousand other blockchains don't already offer and their whole identity is built on a marketing scheme of fraudulent claims.

They have 'Bitcoin' in the name and they're 'cheaper'. That is enough for them to last forever and more than likely make anyone who buys them in a lull far more profit than Bitcoin will. It's odious but that's human nature and that don't ever change.
hero member
Activity: 2240
Merit: 848
Euphoria blow off first.


AB --->C or w3 into 4 we do not yet know.

Quite a fucking blow off, I just watched BTC sink from $19,100 to $18,800!  It was devastating! Cheesy

Why did you move to another account? Your last account was too reputationally hobbled by shitty TA and wildly inaccurate price predictions?  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

This feels even better than shitting on Trump supporters.


I recommend shifting the focus of this thread to guessing how wrong sgbett was from his prediction on the date of Feb 19, 2021. He's currently off by 761%; I'm going to round it up to an even number and guess he was off by 1,000%. Which would put the price of BTC at $24,830 on that date. Seeing as how he's been something of a perfect reverse barometer for the market thus far, it seems like a fairly sensible prediction on my part.

sgbett's conclusions are what believing in plainly idiotic scam bullshit like BSV will get you. It's some sort of unfortunate cognitive dissonance at work, effecting the mind's ability to think clearly, for sure. Perhaps only rendering fully-grown adults who still struggle with defining moral boundaries susceptible.

due you are "winning" why so mad?

Yes I am absolutely blown away with the price action on BTC.

Do I feel remorse that I don't hold any? Not one bit. The risk is way too high for me. I'll stick with Bitcoin Wink


You don't own any Bitcoin. You own a cheap knockoff of a cheap knockoff lol

I have always found your obviously terrible prediction of doom and gloom for Bitcoin hilarious in that it's all based on your prediction of the ascension of a cheap knockoff of a cheap knockoff. Bitcoin has been in an obvious bull market since April 1st 2019, from that day onward the idea that a bear market would suddenly come back and bring bitcoin even lower was well, hilarious. I also find it hilarious that you're "blown away" that Bitcoin actually did what EVERYONE expected it to do haha.

I mean good luck supporting BSV, I guess your best bet is it at least goes up with the rest of the market. It's very likely the two cheap bitcoin knockoffs (BCH and BSV) will become increasingly irrelevant as time passes since they offer nothing that a thousand other blockchains don't already offer and their whole identity is built on a marketing scheme of fraudulent claims. BCH is already an order of magnitude lower against Bitcoin than it was in 2017, and BSV is about 50% lower than even that and even less relevant. It's never a good place to be when you're the even less relevant of the cheap knockoffs of something haha.
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1087
Euphoria blow off first.


AB --->C or w3 into 4 we do not yet know.

Quite a fucking blow off, I just watched BTC sink from $19,100 to $18,800!  It was devastating! Cheesy

Why did you move to another account? Your last account was too reputationally hobbled by shitty TA and wildly inaccurate price predictions?  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

This feels even better than shitting on Trump supporters.


I recommend shifting the focus of this thread to guessing how wrong sgbett was from his prediction on the date of Feb 19, 2021. He's currently off by 761%; I'm going to round it up to an even number and guess he was off by 1,000%. Which would put the price of BTC at $24,830 on that date. Seeing as how he's been something of a perfect reverse barometer for the market thus far, it seems like a fairly sensible prediction on my part.

sgbett's conclusions are what believing in plainly idiotic scam bullshit like BSV will get you. It's some sort of unfortunate cognitive dissonance at work, effecting the mind's ability to think clearly, for sure. Perhaps only rendering fully-grown adults who still struggle with defining moral boundaries susceptible.

due you are "winning" why so mad?

Yes I am absolutely blown away with the price action on BTC.

Do I feel remorse that I don't hold any? Not one bit. The risk is way too high for me. I'll stick with Bitcoin Wink
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 3684
Join the world-leading crypto sportsbook NOW!
Totally caught off guard there by that move, after last week's failed test of big wall at 17.2 I was really expecting a bit more stern tests but we're still seeing strange interest in creeping up to ATH. Aching for the correction but it ain't coming!

Suppose the holding continues at least until late start tapering off...
jr. member
Activity: 90
Merit: 1
Euphoria blow off first.


AB --->C or w3 into 4 we do not yet know.
legendary
Activity: 2464
Merit: 1145
Op just lock the thread and make a new one use different numbers and moderate it.


https://www.coinbase.com/price


top is 16700+


so you have a losing title.

How about  we will not get to 19900 and correct to 7777 sell sell sell?

Don't be a Donald and deny deny deny.

i would sell my left nut to get a chance of buying btc at 7777 again  Cry Grin
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1087
wait, you are still a BSV believer sgbett?  Undecided

I believe that Bitcoin will succeed wrt its goals & I believe that BSV is the most correct implementation of the Bitcoin described in the white paper.

Many think "success" is in $ price. Many think (and I once did) the goal of Bitcoin was to overthrow the system. That's semi true, but not in the burn it down sense, but more in the drain the swamp sense. Bitcoin is a virus, its incentive system is sublime, and shines light into the darkest places.

@exstasie I leave the title because its still in play! 19 Feb 2021 is the date I plucked from my ass, that is the date when I will be right or wrong Smiley - I'd agree that if it breaks the prior ATH convincingly that could spark a new phase of speculative mania. I really didn't think it would happen, but thats BTC for ya Smiley

@philipma1957 - the 16.5 top is a historical call... some 3 years ago. The argument now is about how badly wrong my "bottom" call is Wink

@nutildah love you too xxx
STT
legendary
Activity: 4088
Merit: 1452
300k a coin with 18,538,368 circulating supply makes for 5.5 trillion in US dollar supply.    If it happens so are alot of other things in the world, thats not an event that occurs in isolation.   TA is probabilities not absolutes
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 3684
Join the world-leading crypto sportsbook NOW!
with the big run close to 75-99k dec 2021.

after that all bets are off.
My "bets are off was exactly at the end of 2021, back when I first pretended to predict in 2016 and 2017. That was the earliest I would ever consider looking at what to do with holdings (timeframe wise) and I never thought we would even get 5 figures then, never mind 6.

as for bsv or bch nope 👎

doge and ltc cover the cash idea pretty well.

True story. Still making cash payments in doge and ltc even in 2020. Actually have BCH "tips" in some platforms but nobody wants them.
legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1521
$16.5k passed, can we move on now?

The OP was referring to $16.5K in 2017. Technically it was passed 3 years ago. Tongue

He should update it but leaving the thread title is his humble brag for calling the top within 20% in 2017.

Nobody can predict Bitcoin. Yet people claim they can.

Yep, not a big fan of predicting myself, especially long term. I think the best we can do is react to obvious technical breakouts and failures, after the fact.

I can say this though: when the 2017 ATH breaks with authority, the subsequent gains from there will be exponential, just like they were in 2013 and 2017. I don't know why so many people think it would stop at $50K or $70K, etc. I'm willing to predict it will go a lot further than that. Topping at $300-$400K is way more likely than at $50K, in my mind.
legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
Op just lock the thread and make a new one use different numbers and moderate it.


https://www.coinbase.com/price


top is 16700+


so you have a losing title.

How about  we will not get to 19900 and correct to 7777 sell sell sell?

Don't be a Donald and deny deny deny.
legendary
Activity: 2179
Merit: 1201
$16.5k passed, can we move on now? Nobody can predict Bitcoin. Yet people claim they can.
STT
legendary
Activity: 4088
Merit: 1452
Quote
Quote
^^ Just for the record though, the "March 2017 from nearly $1,300 to $900" was due to the supposedly ETF filing by the twins and the hope that it will get approved by SEC, but it was rejected, hence the price goes down abruptly.

That's just an after the fact rationalization. Bad news just catalyzes corrections that were going to happen anyway,

I agree with both but I remember that sell and it was a hold anyway because of the action in Feb prior was too bullish to let go of, closing weekly prices being most important in conclusion it was surely tested.    The ETF getting turned down was predictable, my own bank refuses to let me deal some ETF types half the time because they must protect me.   BTC is TNT in regulators mind certainly back then and probably not far from that now, widows and orphans and all that.     I think government debt is TNT, its perfectly arguable its a failed system just examine the average term to repay and they've done the equivalent of buying a house with an overnight rolling overdraft.
   Such mass destruction of money makes the OP wrong and also right, in that volatility will be gigantic if debt blows up or swings out of control.   He can be correct on his bearish calls but overall its hard to agree with.

Quote
Every time we have a price movement, this thread comes up. I hope we pass $16.5k soon and so this thread can RIP...

It wont be proven by a nominal number being passed, perhaps that figure is significant in why the market is hitching back and forth here right now not sure.   That'd be bullish because nominal figures dont mean anything beyond face value.  
  The modern Russian Rouble is exchangeable for 10,000 old Russian Roubles and so they never defaulted perhaps they might argue, awesome.  The 2020 Venezuelan Bolivar is not the same as the 2019 Bolivar and the 2020 US dollar used in any country is no longer the same Dollar we exchanged when this thread first started, its something else now.  I'm not arguing we made a ratio of 10,000 to 1 from 'modern' Dollar to the 2005 US dollar or 2000 whenever it peaked recently but obviously its a similar kind of default, a trick.    We're all trying to count in units which arent equal or stable, its easy for alot of nonsense to occur.


Quote
if people didn't buy gold for speculative reasons it wouldn't be worth a fraction of what it's worth now, only a small percentage of that gold is actually used.
The gold is used while being unused and its why I dont think BTC and gold compete because I do expect BTC to be used actively where as gold is purely a fixed asset.  Quite alot of gold sits still in the same vault for the last century even if the owner changes theres never much point to altering something that provides value from being inert.    I think my main take on gold is that the ultimate worth of money is in security not luxury or wealth (this is why capitalism works imo) and so if other factors change in an economy towards instability then the value in that available security rises.   Security also enables trade which makes value indirect in whichever enables thats trade, comparative advantage and all the efficiencies globally we rely on for modern prosperity.  ie. gold is not a relic much as I like technology its not being superseded by greater utility elsewhere
legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1521
^^ Just for the record though, the "March 2017 from nearly $1,300 to $900" was due to the supposedly ETF filing by the twins and the hope that it will get approved by SEC, but it was rejected, hence the price goes down abruptly.

That's just an after the fact rationalization. Bad news just catalyzes corrections that were going to happen anyway, which is why you see the 2016-2017 market littered with 30-40% corrections throughout. If it wasn't the ETF rejection in March, it would have been something else. That spike through the 2013 ATH and crash back below was likely to happen regardless. Very typical move in a bull market at resistance. Nobody should be surprised to see similar action in the $20K area next time around either.

Looks that you joined the crypto sphere only after this event, really weird when your post history is so much older. March 2017 was exactly and only because of the ETF deadline. The massive spike happened 15 minutes before the rejection so everybody was thinking - OH SHIT, it's insiders trading on the approval - and then crashed so hard and so fast that everybody who was sitting in front of their computers and buying in on that spike up was on the wrong side of the trade.

Like I said, such news events catalyze corrections. Maybe consider looking up that word. Pointing out that the market reacted to the ETF rejection doesn't disagree with what I said.

Bad news does not however cause the underlying supply/demand conditions that facilitate deep crashes. They do not determine the magnitude, which is a function of the preceding rise and also existing market liquidity. You really think BTC would have crashed 34% in March 2017 if it hadn't risen 82% in the 2 months directly prior? That is the literal definition of a bull market correction!

It's like when people say the Mt. Gox collapse in 2014 caused the 87% bear market decline in 2014-2015. Of course it didn't. It just triggered a selloff that was already going to happen, in the middle of a full blown bear market that followed a bubble pop.

You seem to think if bad news doesn't happen, that price would never, ever, drop. That's just naive. Price doesn't go up in a straight line. You can claim that news events caused all the corrections along the way, or you can be realistic and acknowledge that those corrections were going to happen no matter what, because that's what happens during bull markets: pullbacks. Bad news is nothing more than a trigger.
legendary
Activity: 3010
Merit: 8114
No matter what it's turned into, the initial call was certainly on point and delivered at the right time.

His "initial call" was off by over 15% and the market was long overdue for a correction at that point, so I'm not particularly impressed. In addition, he's been wrong every step of the way since Jan 2018. He's carried the rest of this thread with attitude and pretension, and somehow people were once again suckered into believing confidence = wisdom. In this case, "wisdom" infers:

1. fighting the effects of massive inflation created by the Federal Reserve, and
2. losing a shitload of money to affinity scam forks (twice).

Some people just enjoy being wrong I suppose.
legendary
Activity: 1473
Merit: 1086
^^ Just for the record though, the "March 2017 from nearly $1,300 to $900" was due to the supposedly ETF filing by the twins and the hope that it will get approved by SEC, but it was rejected, hence the price goes down abruptly.

That's just an after the fact rationalization. Bad news just catalyzes corrections that were going to happen anyway, which is why you see the 2016-2017 market littered with 30-40% corrections throughout. If it wasn't the ETF rejection in March, it would have been something else. That spike through the 2013 ATH and crash back below was likely to happen regardless. Very typical move in a bull market at resistance. Nobody should be surprised to see similar action in the $20K area next time around either.

Looks that you joined the crypto sphere only after this event, really weird when your post history is so much older. March 2017 was exactly and only because of the ETF deadline. The massive spike happened 15 minutes before the rejection so everybody was thinking - OH SHIT, it's insiders trading on the approval - and then crashed so hard and so fast that everybody who was sitting in front of their computers and buying in on that spike up was on the wrong side of the trade. (Eventually I somehow managed to trade back in the green after selling a few more at 1200$ and buying everything around 950$)

The seemingly easy spike through the old ATH was my moment of realizing: This is it, the bull arrived.

Curious if I catched the bottom at 872€.  Roll Eyes
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