Topic: Calling top at $16500 (Even Newer!: $2483 bottom 19 Feb 2021 MtGox said so!) - page 40. (Read 24373 times)

Looks to me like the most recent Tether injection has not resulted in the uptrend resuming with the same strength it was... i've trimmed my BTC exposure. Good luck to all remaining longs! ;P

(more fool me if it suddenly blasts through 20k though hehe!)

Yah non-log is always scary over long term, but also so entertaining

Sensible. Thats the difference between the old and the new blood

I think your $50k call is a good one, should the break-out hold... it looks weak to me, but you know bitcoin!!!!

Log scale (or better said, lack thereof) is only an issue when using trendlines during parabolic trends. Or just the visual appearance can be enough to scare you out of a long when you look at this



On short time frames, there is virtually no difference in the appearance. MA's, fibo, indicators are unaffected by log vs linear

50k is very possible in the very near future. Could come in the next couple of weeks

I totally get where you are coming from. Bitcoin isn't what I thought from a few years back. Nor what Satoshi planned as far as I can surmise. In my case I started drifting away from bitcoin before the bitcoin cash fork though (however bitcoin still is a huge part of my portfolio for reasons similar to you I imagine). For me the digital cash battle is hands down Dash though. However I do also hold bitcoin cash (most of it retained from the fork) too just in case. Dash is like a digital organism, self funding, protects itself. Scary. Maybe it should be stopped. Can it be stopped?

For a bit of fun heres an idea for the top. How does a brief spike to $50k in the very near future sound ?



That would be similar to the first bubble peak of 2013

Then a crash, but first a ginormous spike

I wonder if the reason many fail in TA is that they don't use the log price scale enough.

Still waiting to see whether this is a real breakout, or just another Tether Fuelled pump. The shape of the chart is weird.

Doeasn't seem clear at the moment what is going to happen, you can be sure I'll be in with an update once I have another crazy idea

Just because I prefer the Bitcoin Cash project, doesn't mean I can't see the speculative value in Bitcoin. So I'm not really rooting for Bitcoin Core, just trying to be intellectually honest, and financially rational. I know why you don't get it, because you are still in love with BTC, I was and it's very hard to be open minded after 6 years of steadfast beleif. Only the people that have made the switch know how painful the breakup us.

So, because of this I'm not sure you can really make an objective judgement on the situation. I think your judgement is clouded further still because you seem to be stuck in an us/them mentality (i noticed the shill remark btw, just made me chuckle, you know its lost all meaning now right?). So, I would respectfully disagree with your theory. The only way BTC will get a base block-size increase is if Core end up totally backed into the corner (eg a cashening or the like), they are simply too entrenched in their position, it would be a desperate move in reaction to falling out of favour with the market. If the market has already set a new course, then I think anything core do would be futile. The only thing stopping the market moving now is the speculative value of BTC, and the attachment.

So I think the idea that BCH would become obsolete doesn't really make sense, because Core and Cash have two very different roadmaps. Their stated business model is 2L solutions/offchain. I doubt very much that Core is suddenly going to abandon this and ape Cash with an on-chain strategy. Do you think they would?

This is - partly - true. However, Bitcoin also shares characteristics with stocks: A Bitcoin is like a share of the Bitcoin ecosystem.

The Bitcoin ecosystem can be loosely compared with an organization or even a business, but it has a much less centralized structure. But it has the character of a group, because there are people "inside" and "outside" the ecosystem - as long as not everybody in the world is a Bitcoin user.

Another common point with businesses is that Bitcoin competes with similar projects, and although no one of them has surpassed it so far, it's not impossible (Ethereum did come somewhat close).

That means that the financial return of the "Bitcoin revolution" can be shared with other coins. From this point of view, it's like a company that did a significant innovation - it has a competitive advantage over others, but can be surpassed by them (e.g. Nokia inventing the smartphone in the 1990s, being completely marginalized in the 2010s because Apple improved the concept significantly).

I don't get it sgbett. How did you become a BCash shill and still be rooting for Bitcoin?

You do realize that when Bitcoin gets a block size increase (and it WILL eventually) then BCash will become completely obsolete?

What's your new top?

Lol, I'm one of the original permabulls (if i say so myself). Whilst I think fundamentally, I'm better off heavier BCH, I'm not stupid enough to bet against speculative mania and sell BTC entirely, let alone short it!

Read a bit further up the thread, I'm what some might call a "bcash shill" and even I am saying we could see anything up to $80k in the short term.

Also, I don't trade so I never short *anything*. For me it's the most stupid trade you can make. Limited upside, unlimited downside.

Exactly, right now people are using bitcoin as a speculative tool, instead of what it was initially intended to be as - a currency, an asset, a store of value. People that joined in 2017 onto the train do not understand that bitcoin can crash, and it can stay low for many years. All they've seen is a booming bitcoin that never stops and that feeds itself into the bubble.

So yeah, in a sense, it is like stocks, perhaps even more speculative. Bitcoin techonolgy is a revelation but right now, that technoolgy isn't used much.

There is going to be a top for sure, but $16500 is not it. We're going to hit $20k, even though it may be a bubble.

That may be true, but we have come a long way from 2009. Bitcoin has now become big enough to be a separate asset class. With a large number of investors, it might very well start behaving like a stock in terms of price.

We totally share the same thought. There is really not much they can do, as they are gambling in fiats anyway. All the above, looking at the fact that they may want to use their funds to manipulate the market is quite possible.

These guys really do not have anything to lose and all they are using are stolen money anyway as far as I am concerned but we would really want to see how they want to achieve all that. In reality we cannot expect those manipulators to stop around $16,500 levels as human's greed has no limits.

I agree. Since it's gone parabolic starting at around 6K, I already think we should be bullish rather than bearish why?

because there are too much caution around the parabolic pattern, people are too conscious (right or wrong) that it's parabolic.
From a contrarian point of view, that's an important sign that the top is not reached.

The beauty of exponential is that it's fractal. You can rise 100% from any price for as many times as you wish to, and it's still a parabolic curve LOL

$80K it is then, thank you sgbett haha! 

Yeah so far there are no big crash up until now maybe bitcoin has dumped an incredible amount but not a lot i think it is considerable cause it has pumped up a large amount of it by a $1000 on a day. Thinking it was an correction might be understandable but what happened was still unknown it is a common thinking if you think it is a correction or manipulation.

That's a nice thought, but forgive me my scepticism when all the posts like this come from guys with join dates post 2015. The market will change as it grows but I do not see any reason for step changes.

Paradigm shift.

Bitcoin is not a stock, it is a revolution.