Calling top at $16500 (Even Newer!: $2483 bottom 19 Feb 2021 MtGox said so!) - page 42.

sgbett

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Quote from: btcone111 on December 12, 2017, 06:02:26 PM

Quote from: sgbett on December 12, 2017, 01:34:32 PM

So imagine the market was trying to correct right now. However, wall street is holding the price here, people "selling the top" are unloading coins into wall street hands.

All the while they are scooping up futures contracts cheap for the 18-20k range.

As the futures come due, wall street intensifies buying, all the sellers FOMO back in, price is pushed way up over the futures contract prices.

Wall street ends up with stacks of coins they got for cheap, and stacks of dollars from futures profits!

(Cool story bro') Wink

OK - but is that even the story? cos I don't think mainstream wall st has been very interested in BTC.
I simply probably will see it as simple as --- LTC buyers cash out by converting their LTC to BTC. Same could be said to other alts. BTC push up another 10% to breach $20K in 2 days time.

I dunno, what is the story? I have no idea, but I can speculate as much as the next guy Cheesy

I'm not saying I'm right, but I'm saying its plausible and there is a strong profit motive for wall st to do such a thing.

Why are LTC buyers cashing out? Sounds like you are just hoping BTC will go up, and trying to think of a reason why it could? Whats the compelling reason to bail out of LTC and into BTC right now.

More curious to me is why LTC has gone up so much in the past few days...

MMA

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Quote from: afbitcoins on December 11, 2017, 05:10:59 PM

Hi sgbett its good to see posting again. I remember your analysis from way back including your postings about the S curve. Always appreciated your ideas.

Like you I assume this particular time will be no different ie there will be a crash and following bear market from this run up. Very hard to predict where it will end though. I'm not convinced the top is in yet though.

I wonder if segwit problems may prick the bubble, perhaps like Hyperme.sh alludes to with miners stealing a booty of coins held on segwit addresses.

Its funny to see the idea that this run up has already had 'crashes' which just recovered very quick. Ah such innocence

Really yeah I am feeling the way you are for these nonsense. Sometime it seems truly baseless discussion when people hoping from bitcoin go against bitcoin and expect from bitcoin to be in a smooth line. Everyone here must have a little knowhow of bitcoin nature, its nature is designed with instability. Bitcoin can’t remain in the same order it will either move forward or backward. The elastic nature of bitcoin can be judged by how it recovered the last three times earlier from a bad situation. For some it may be the worst experience of bitcoin and for most it’s a great dance moves of their sweetheart Wink

fabiorem

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Quote from: btcone111 on December 11, 2017, 03:52:46 PM

There are loads of people out there who are losing money in this bullish market. One of the groups is technical analysts.
Don't get me wrong, I love TA, however it seems TA is really just not very effective on crypto.

That's true, but a lot of people are influenced by TA. I have been doing it recently in tradingview just to influence bullish tendencies in people that visits that site. Theres so many bearish "predictions" there that I had to do something.

btcone111

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Quote from: sgbett on December 12, 2017, 01:34:32 PM

So imagine the market was trying to correct right now. However, wall street is holding the price here, people "selling the top" are unloading coins into wall street hands.

All the while they are scooping up futures contracts cheap for the 18-20k range.

As the futures come due, wall street intensifies buying, all the sellers FOMO back in, price is pushed way up over the futures contract prices.

Wall street ends up with stacks of coins they got for cheap, and stacks of dollars from futures profits!

(Cool story bro') Wink

OK - but is that even the story? cos I don't think mainstream wall st has been very interested in BTC.
I simply probably will see it as simple as --- LTC buyers cash out by converting their LTC to BTC. Same could be said to other alts. BTC push up another 10% to breach $20K in 2 days time.

sgbett

legendary

Activity: 2576

Merit: 1087

So imagine the market was trying to correct right now. However, wall street is holding the price here, people "selling the top" are unloading coins into wall street hands.

All the while they are scooping up futures contracts cheap for the 18-20k range.

As the futures come due, wall street intensifies buying, all the sellers FOMO back in, price is pushed way up over the futures contract prices.

Wall street ends up with stacks of coins they got for cheap, and stacks of dollars from futures profits!

(Cool story bro') Wink

yanlap

hero member

Activity: 672

Merit: 500

Quote from: Ayiranorea on December 11, 2017, 11:28:59 AM

Quote from: fabiorem on December 11, 2017, 10:10:28 AM

Correction is over. Now to 20k and beyond.

I too have the thinking that price correction has got over. Now it's heading towards the next targeted price of $20k,and now the price has crossed the $16500 mark. By the start or at least by the first quarter I believe bitcoin will go above $20000 to make the price reach as speculated by most people.

Yeah buying at this time is not a good option because bitcoin has lot which is coming I future so be seated and get benefit from it and this thing is sure that in coming days price will rise up the upper most level and those who are patience will cash out that profit time, there are bunch of millions of people are coming to invest into bitcoin and that will give more prosperity to the bitcoin and will be good for us to make millions,

sgbett

legendary

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Quote from: btcone111 on December 11, 2017, 03:52:46 PM

There are loads of people out there who are losing money in this bullish market. One of the groups is technical analysts.
Don't get me wrong, I love TA, however it seems TA is really just not very effective on crypto.

I agree, I don’t trade for this reason Wink

sgbett

legendary

Activity: 2576

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Quote from: afbitcoins on December 11, 2017, 05:10:59 PM

Hi sgbett its good to see posting again. I remember your analysis from way back including your postings about the S curve. Always appreciated your ideas.

Like you I assume this particular time will be no different ie there will be a crash and following bear market from this run up. Very hard to predict where it will end though. I'm not convinced the top is in yet though.

I wonder if segwit problems may prick the bubble, perhaps like Hyperme.sh alludes to with miners stealing a booty of coins held on segwit addresses.

Its funny to see the idea that this run up has already had 'crashes' which just recovered very quick. Ah such innocence

Hey hey, glad you dropped in

kind words thanks I remember you too. One of the real OGs

Yes the sweet summer children talking of “crashes” does seem funny, if it weren’t so serious!

I honestly thought that if it retested the top and broke through it would shoot higher. The fact it didn’t seems to show continued weakness. Let’s see how the it plays out today...

afbitcoins

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Quote from: btcone111 on December 11, 2017, 03:52:46 PM

There are loads of people out there who are losing money in this bullish market. One of the groups is technical analysts.
Don't get me wrong, I love TA, however it seems TA is really just not very effective on crypto.

Seems to work pretty well for me mostly

afbitcoins

legendary

Activity: 2101

Merit: 1061

Hi sgbett its good to see posting again. I remember your analysis from way back including your postings about the S curve. Always appreciated your ideas.

Like you I assume this particular time will be no different ie there will be a crash and following bear market from this run up. Very hard to predict where it will end though. I'm not convinced the top is in yet though.

I wonder if segwit problems may prick the bubble, perhaps like Hyperme.sh alludes to with miners stealing a booty of coins held on segwit addresses.

Its funny to see the idea that this run up has already had 'crashes' which just recovered very quick. Ah such innocence

btcone111

full member

Activity: 266

Merit: 110

There are loads of people out there who are losing money in this bullish market. One of the groups is technical analysts.
Don't get me wrong, I love TA, however it seems TA is really just not very effective on crypto.

sgbett

legendary

Activity: 2576

Merit: 1087

REKT

okala

full member

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I will not called top at $16,500 as it seen bitcoin has not been respecting most of the Fibonacci level and I think this market is purely drive by speculation and news. We have seeing when a single tweet has brought bitcoin down and also a tweet also has push price up to an unexpected level. I have been trying to understand reason why people are predicting a fall back to $3500 but I don't think this is realistic.

fabiorem

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Quote from: sgbett on December 11, 2017, 12:44:44 PM

These guys have trillions in derivatives. Once wall street has their future positions 10-100x the size of the actual market, then it becomes cheap (and in fact very profitable) for them to move the price wherever they want it to be.

Only if they hold most of bitcoins in their custody, like it happens with gold and silver.

sgbett

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Quote from: alyssa85 on December 11, 2017, 11:48:52 AM

Quote from: Makka on December 11, 2017, 11:40:53 AM

Quote from: Ayiranorea on December 11, 2017, 11:28:59 AM

Quote from: fabiorem on December 11, 2017, 10:10:28 AM

Correction is over. Now to 20k and beyond.

I too have the thinking that price correction has got over. Now it's heading towards the next targeted price of $20k,and now the price has crossed the $16500 mark. By the start or at least by the first quarter I believe bitcoin will go above $20000 to make the price reach as speculated by most people.

Still not over I guess. We have CME also coming up so who knows. I just don't like these Wall Street manipulators. I am confident though that Bitcoin reaches $20,000 this month.

Will the futures on CME be any different from the futures on CBOE?

The thing about the mainstream traders is they have no experience at all with an asset as volatile as bitcoin. And they have no experience in trading something where the exchanges are open 24/7. They also don't have experience of trading something that is on multiple exchanges around the world - most of the stuff they trade is on just one exchange. They're going to get a shock.

I'm not so sure. A single exchange isn't open 24/7 but exchanges worldwide are. To me the fact everyone thinks that all the bitcoin traders and HODLers are a match for wall street is just further evidence that people have lost their minds! We are bang on "return to normal", don't make me post "that chart" ...

no...

don't do it...

argh too late:

These guys have trillions in derivatives. Once wall street has their future positions 10-100x the size of the actual market, then it becomes cheap (and in fact very profitable) for them to move the price wherever they want it to be.

Or I'm wrong, and these wall street guys are all country bumpkins about to be taken to the cleaners by some crypto wannabe day traders Wink

Another steep leg down here is all we need to create a little fear - that double top that's forming looks a bit ominous... of course, I know "its designed to shake out weak hands" so I continue to HODL what I have (never go full fiat) but just be both honest about & ready for what may be coming. It's better for your health.

alyssa85

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Quote from: Makka on December 11, 2017, 11:40:53 AM

Quote from: Ayiranorea on December 11, 2017, 11:28:59 AM

Quote from: fabiorem on December 11, 2017, 10:10:28 AM

Correction is over. Now to 20k and beyond.

I too have the thinking that price correction has got over. Now it's heading towards the next targeted price of $20k,and now the price has crossed the $16500 mark. By the start or at least by the first quarter I believe bitcoin will go above $20000 to make the price reach as speculated by most people.

Still not over I guess. We have CME also coming up so who knows. I just don't like these Wall Street manipulators. I am confident though that Bitcoin reaches $20,000 this month.

Will the futures on CME be any different from the futures on CBOE?

The thing about the mainstream traders is they have no experience at all with an asset as volatile as bitcoin. And they have no experience in trading something where the exchanges are open 24/7. They also don't have experience of trading something that is on multiple exchanges around the world - most of the stuff they trade is on just one exchange. They're going to get a shock.

Makka

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Quote from: Ayiranorea on December 11, 2017, 11:28:59 AM

Quote from: fabiorem on December 11, 2017, 10:10:28 AM

Correction is over. Now to 20k and beyond.

I too have the thinking that price correction has got over. Now it's heading towards the next targeted price of $20k,and now the price has crossed the $16500 mark. By the start or at least by the first quarter I believe bitcoin will go above $20000 to make the price reach as speculated by most people.

Still not over I guess. We have CME also coming up so who knows. I just don't like these Wall Street manipulators. I am confident though that Bitcoin reaches $20,000 this month.

Ayiranorea

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Quote from: fabiorem on December 11, 2017, 10:10:28 AM

Correction is over. Now to 20k and beyond.

I too have the thinking that price correction has got over. Now it's heading towards the next targeted price of $20k,and now the price has crossed the $16500 mark. By the start or at least by the first quarter I believe bitcoin will go above $20000 to make the price reach as speculated by most people.

VuLDK

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Quote from: sgbett on December 07, 2017, 07:34:39 AM

Hello,

Its been a while.

Imagine for a second that we are nearing the blow off top, I'm looking out for where we might ultimately form a new baseline (background)

I'm going to say ~$3700 looks good

As you all know, this run up started around $200

$200 to $3700 is $3500 increase. If we do a fib retrace of 78.6%, working the math we end up with that $3500 representing 12.4% of the overall expected gain before it corrects. That gives 3500/0.124 => $16300 gain.

$16,300 + starting point of $200 = $16,500

bitcoin prices are very volatile. I think at the moment should keep bitcoin, should not buy at this time

fabiorem

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Correction is over. Now to 20k and beyond.

Topic: Calling top at $16500 (Even Newer!: $2483 bottom 19 Feb 2021 MtGox said so!) - page 42. (Read 24373 times)