Topic: Calling top at $16500 (Even Newer!: $2483 bottom 19 Feb 2021 MtGox said so!) - page 43. (Read 24373 times)

Uping the topic is allowed?

Don't understand those people who wait for falling prices of bitcoin. Perhaps you want to buy cheap coins? But this requires certain conditions. I don't see such conditions. The price of bitcoin even when the most severe adjustments will not be below $ 13,000. you can leave your dreams and buy coins now because then you'll have to buy them at $ 20,000.

Fantastic analysis and i am thinking the exactly same.
I am waiting a hard correction move to below 10000 and this will happen anytime and very soon.
keep up the good work.

It's back at your top there, sgbett. 

That doesn't sound like speculation to me

Here comes the test....

In order to assign a probability you need to have some data points/variables to plug in an equation.

Nah, the smart people know that they don’t know for sure what is going to happen. They assign a probability to each scenario and hedge accordingly.

Yeah it was at top but people sold their coin for the price they were waiting for and now prices are again back at the 13k and maybe this is the chance to buy but only smart people will avail this chance the dumb people will say it will come down more they will be wrong because at this time this fall is very big and people will cash out this chance and we will see in coming days prices will be above 20k and it will happen,

And now, there are even less use cases. Did you see the Valve news? The use case "as a currency" has taken a big hit this year.

Now you may think that I'm a BCH shill or big blocker, but no, on-chain scaling for me is not the solution. In my opinion, the long-term goal is a combination of LN and decentralized sidechains or extension blocks, and altcoins like XCN or Ardor with mini-blockchain schemes for the "play money" use cases. The problem is that pegged (and decentralized!) sidechains, an important component of this ecosystem, are still far away, and LN alone won't solve all problems.

Another problem is the belief in a "digital gold". Bitcoin will never be digital gold. Nobody buys Bitcoin to get <10% p.a. as return or to "simply maintain the value". Bitcoin has only two options:
- being a highly speculative asset forever (having "to da moon!!!!" and "Bitcoin is dead!!!!" phases every 2-3 years)
- it matures, and becomes a real currency/payment system. Only then it can also be a "store of value", because then it has a direct connection to the real economy, so a real value theory can be built.

Overall, I agree with the OP and I think he could be very probably right with his "top call". What I don't know is how tomorrow and Monday will play out, with the new futures coming out. That could lead to extreme price fluctuations (like before the "ETF decision" in March) and so a new top near 20K isn't impossible.

This is because of the global demand. But I think we can apply mathematics to have the accurate price of BTC, the buying and selling are happening in real time and there's no way to predict that, unless some of the whales are talking to each other "Hey let's pump the market". We maybe have some historical data on that and we can count the average increase but we can never who will buy and how much the demand will rise.

In my prediction it will be 20-21k at the end of the year.

Also for the various "but on exchange X it was a gajillion dollars"

I tend to look at stamp because I'm in europe and and for me it represents the most stable price, offering as it does only to exchange money for BTC/LTC and now BCH.

I find it to be the most honest reflection of the market price, one of the oldest exchanges been around since gox.

I know other exchanges traded at a premium, but thats exactly what it was a *premium* to what you  might call the actual price. I watched the GDAX run up live and observed how no other exchanges went with it, and then 15 mins later poof it was gone.

So yeah, by those exchanges I was miles out. If thats what you want to think

Thankyou for schooling me so hard on Bitcoin price being an s-curve overlaid with hype cycle. I don't think I ever saw that, except for that time 3 years ago when i posted a very long thread explaining it.

Or that other time when I explained that the fractal hype cycle just repeats but each time is bigger because the weight of the market means there is more inertia.

What you might also notice in that thread, is that I'm counting the run-up to 266 as a pre-cursor to the subsequent "real" run-up to $1260.

That's because I was also around when the run up to  ~$9 was followed by a mini-crash to ~$5

So where others are comparing this run up to the $1260 one, I'm saying its actually the $260 one. If it goes back to 6-7k or even 3-4k I'm still calling it a "mini-crash". Can you see the implications of that? Can you see how even though someone think bitcoin is going to at least 6/7 figures they can still think clearly enough to understand how it is possible that it might retrace 80% following a run-up like we just saw.

So where you mistake me for a bear, I am in fact probably one of the most bullish on Bitcoin that there is. Nothing's changed except the name of the client that follows the bitcoin white paper imho. This thread isn't about that though, but you did bring it up

I reject entirely your characterisation of the minor-corrections during the run up as "crashes". It make me think you have never been through an actual bitcoin *crash* let alone watched thousands of dollars evaporate, all the whilst HODLing.

If it touches anywhere below $5,000 no matter how momentarily that would be a great value buy

A lot more investors would leap at the chance to get it as cheap as $3,700!

$16,500 isn't the top, don't you know bitcoin price in South Korea reached over $22,500? There are few exchanges which listed bitcoin over $20,000 yesterday. However, bitcoin price will continue to increase after Bank of America wins the patent of an exchange system for the cryptocurrency, people in the US will be attracted to learn about cryptocurrency and more adopters is coming.
Bitcoin futures will be launched in this month and in 2018, so the rally isn't over yet.

Hasn't it already hit more than that? Probably topped it by $1000 or more on Bithumb, but even US exchanges have hit this pretty sure.

Your predictions could well come true and we see BTC top out at somewhere around that region. At the same time we may see a lot more rallies happening and this is only the beginning of these future rallies. Honestly, it's quite early to tell.

Personally i'm leaning towards another ATH soon, no offense to your analysis but i think the markets are just way too bullish for this current ATH to last for long.

Theres no way to have a "multi-year bear market" anymore, because at that time, there were very few use cases for bitcoin, and Mt.Gox dominated the exchanges. Now bitcoin is going mainstream, so if there is a bear period, it will last no more than one or two weeks, and it will lead to even more intense bull runs. People will just buy it due to increased demand.

That's funny, I'm also expecting that floor, a bit lower maybe in some exchanges. This is pretty close to the current cost of mining too (~$4k IIRC).

I kinda have a gut feeling that we're just entering the super exponential crazy rally phase. Like few more weeks and maybe a high around ~40k$ and then it's time for the proper crash with noobs hanging from nooses.

That right there is your fatal flaw here.

Your inability to recognize crashes post Mt. Gox crash. You seem to think that the current start of mass adoption is fake and that Bitcoin can never truly recover after that crash 4 years ago. Probably why as you say you are "all in BCH".

When you look at the crashes this year they follow the exact same pattern as all the earlier crashes, they just recover at a much quicker pace because obviously a lot more of the public knows about bitcoin now so there is a constant surge of new money coming in to cut short what used to be long consolidation periods.

And guess what, this is EXACTLY what you would expect from a new technology heading towards mass adoption. This is exactly what an S-curve looks like. Normally an S-curve doesn't have boom-bust cycles because normally things that are mass adopted are just products you buy and aren't an asset that you buy a "share" of and so there is no market and therefore no speculation which is what causes booms and busts. So we get boom-bust cycles that start out with long periods between them but higher volatility due to relatively small influxes of money affecting the market greatly, then when it starts moving up the spine of the "S" (2017 and onwards until the market reaches mass adoption, or the technology ends up failing or being replaced by something else before reaching maturity) the price gets harder to move as vastly more money is in the game so volatility shrinks but with new money always ready to come in at greater and greater amounts the period of the cycles speeds up immensely. And this is exactly what has been happening.


So go ahead and increment your "chance top is in" counter right now but it doesn't change the fact that you are seemingly incapable of recognizing an S-curve and therefore are fundamentally misreading everything that has happened this year, and you will continue to do so unless you really read the paragraph above and realize how plain to see this all is. Either way though, doesn't affect Bitcoin's continued rise when a few people are just unwilling to see the obvious. But hey, that's what all your BCH is for! ;p

Is it, "this time it's different?" Probably not. What I don't see happening is a long, protracted bear market. It will be good for things to cool down for a bit.