Topic: Calling top at $16500 (Even Newer!: $2483 bottom 19 Feb 2021 MtGox said so!) - page 44. (Read 24335 times)

If it continues downward then I think there's a bit of friction at $10.5k but if that doesn't hold then probably $7.6ish

I've still not-convinced it wont do a massive u-turn though

It will hit support levels now, in a flash crash. Something around 7-9k. But it will be a short window.

Then it will rise again, as always.

I could still be proven wrong, but if not I was out by 1% the top on bitstamp was $16666.66

You hit it, sgbett.

The bears are out of the cave.

Everybody, get your rifles.

7-8k next week.

We'll get a bounce from BTFDers, it will retrace. Then we go lower to 3-4k. Then we have to endure another long cold winter.

Maybe I am Jon Snow. Maybe I know nothing

Price will move up instead of the crash because bitcoin community is increasing day by day and with increase of single investor the price rise and all this rise will be more faster in the coming days and as the price of bitcoin has gone so high that now people are eagerly waiting for a crash so that they can get into the bitcoin but the sad news for them is that the demand will be more high and will jump to new record value.

Hah, my credibility went out the window a long time ago

WRT price - I'm pretty much bitstamp or GTFO

They seem the least prone to shenanigans, since gox they have always been (for me) the "honest" market price.

Yeah, but being 17.500 now on coinmarketcap and somewhat over 16500 on most exchanges and you calling a low of 3400 could make you loose credibility. The Coreans are very weary BTW, being over 21000 for they and impatiently waiting for said correction. Controversy for the sake of it is not always good, in fact more times the opposite.

(BTW, said correction did happen a few hours ago, but recovered in one hour. So you were kinda right, just not up with the speed.)

Agreed - wish we could tip round here - in particular: The "crashes" we've seen since 200 were not crashes.

Every time people say that, it just increments my "chance top is in" counter.

My sentiments exactly, I just thought I'd hang myself out to dry with a bold prediction! I'm not afraid of being wrong, I like the discussion that follows.

No, it wasn't a good catch at all because neither he, nor you can apparently parse simple english. Or seem to understand the uncertain future. I'm speculating - its the speculation subforum, i'm pretty familiar with it. I didn't (and rarely) claim to be right.

Oh please. A bitcoin talk post is going to move markets? People were saying the same shit in 2011 and it was pure nonsense back then. Now it's a testament to just how stupid some people can be.

Maybe you could read my post a bit harder - *I have BTC exposure*. It's right there next to the bit you bolded.

Maybe take a step back and realise its not all about BTC vs BCH rah rah rage.

Try to keep on topic, was a reasonably decent discussion til you piped up.

That is exactly the issue. It could be tonight, it could be at 40k. That's why I say be careful, and not that the top is in. I have seen enough Bitcoin rallies to know better than the euphoric statements in here. Yes LOTS of new people are coming in, but that is part of it. LOTS of potential top buyers. More pain that leads to more selling when the red candles elongate.

Imagine getting caught up in the mania, taking a loan, or using savings, or inheritance and buying Bitcoins at 16k a pop. Price hits 20k, you think this is gonna be great and you are so smart. Then the price starts to fall. It bounces to 15.5k and you think "good, it's coming back" then it turns down again. You've just become a bag holder.

I know it'll come back eventually, but most will just panic sell at a loss. There is very little regulation in Bitcoin, and none at the exchange engine level. There are no circuit breakers. No halting trade, just price changes that can be YUUGE. It usually takes only one 10 or 20% dump to mindfuck the sentiment right out of someone. Bitcoin has those all the time, so here, we see 30 or 40 or 50% dumps at times. The "crashes" we've seen since 200 were not crashes. They are there to gauge the market strength. "How fast can this recover?", "oh, pretty quickly, not yet". Eventually, it will drop and not return for a long time. The real crash is only the initial dumps of a bear market. People who are new since the $200 area don't even know what to expect. Their responses to this subject can't be taken at face value because they don't know what this is capable of. They'll be easy to find later. They'll be the ones asking why Bitcoin price is going down or what the bad news was.

Hold or don't...
I don't even care. Just be careful.

To be honest, technical analysis has not been working at all on BTC for the past few months...
I have tried to follow TA to buy a few ALTS and lost so much money in BTC terms

This is too good to be true. This rise in just a few hours is great, but the price will drop for sure. It can't just just keep on going up. In a few days or weeks after the futures launch we'll see a crash to 8K to cool off. Then the price will start to go up again to hit 20K in March next year.

I would be in agreement with the general sentiment that a crash of large significance is inevitable but I just don't see how it will be right now. For me the timing doesn't make sense, I think we are starting to see the beginning of it but wouldn't be surprised to see bitcoin reach 30-40k before it actually happens. The whole futures market thing just seems like a strange time to trigger a mass crash. As I said I think sometime 30-40k and we will see a crash back down in to the region of probably 5-10k but who knows!

You haven't checked Korean exchanges. At Bithumb, the price was a staggering $22k just a few hours ago but it seems that the prices are subsiding by now.


You are probably using Bithumb. You need to know that not all exchanges have the same volume and traders, so there would always be some discrepancies in between different exchanges. With these differences within the exchanges, traders are trying to profit off of it, and that is where arbitraging comes to play.


Sharing the same sentiment. Would be pulling out once it reached $20k in my exchange and would only look back after it crashed. There is no way that this would hold, and sooner or later there would be a huge profit booking from all sides. I like it that everyone is so lively about this price increase but on the reality part, everyone should be scared because we are all clueless as to when it will continue to hold.

You are not counting the massive adoption from recent months. Coinbase is adding thousands upon thousands of new users everyday, and even if they dont count for most of the money, theres already that idea that bitcoin is the new gold and people need it for protection against the government.

I remember the crash of MtGox. I didnt had any bitcoin at that time yet, because there was no use case for it. I only bought my first coin when Mega accepted it... I was interested in their services and wanted some degree of privacy, and so it happened. Now the use cases have multiplied, and there are people buying cars and houses with bitcoin, paying their bills, receiving wages... this is leading to massive adoption.

It was not the same at the time of MtGox, when it looked more like a collectible card than a real currency. MtGox was also centralizing bitcoin, now we have dozens of exchanges. You have to consider these aspects before saying there will be another multi-year bear market. A bear market like that is only possible in a centralized ecosystem, but the ecosystem have become more and more decentralized since MtGox. Think about the ICOs, all those altcoins, this was very niche at that time, now its spread around hundreds of parties. How can Wall Street control it all of a sudden? The only way they can do that is if they buy so much bitcoin that they have at least 25% of all the coins mined, and I doubt they will find it on every exchange, because people are hoarding it, they are taking it out of the exchanges and putting in cold wallets, increasing demand. Also, if they try to short it, using their futures mechanisms, this can provoke a bull run on the altcoins, and some people might hedge on them, bringing the money back to bitcoin when it reaches the bottom. Now imagine a future market for every single altcoin out there, this will take years, and until then, bitcoin will rise to Mars, because the adoption is going mainstream.

in my exchange it show more than 19,500$

why number so high

That's one scary chart!

I agree with you, we're now in Mania phase, which means the blow out is close. And then a bear market for two years, because that's the pattern bitcoin has previously had.