I agree with LDR. Also have very few shares but at the current BTC price an ROI in BTC would be nice. I second a refund.
If the Neptunes hashrate is significantly higher than the originally promised 3TH/s, the return in BTC could be as high as 19-36 BTC. With a refund, we might meet ROI in fiat, but there will only be a slight increase in BTC. (Actually, there might be a loss for some since the exchange value for BTC was so volatile when payments were made, that there was a significant loss of value (in fiat) during the transaction time when those payments were processed. I actually had to subsidize the Neptune purchase with my own money in order to have enough. Wasn't planning on telling you guys this because I'm working towards a long term goal, but it seems appropriate to let you know now.)
I thought it would be helpful to get a good idea about the actual numbers involved (or an estimation at least) in making a decision.
I used the Jupiter stats to calculate a rough estimate of what we might expect the Neptunes hashrate to be by core count.
Jupiter: 550 GH/s / 768 cores = 716 MH/s per core
Neptune: 4 chips * 1440 cores * 716 MH/s per core = 4.125 TH/s
Remember, most Jupiters where exceeding the 550 GH/s and were actually hashing at ~600 GH/s
Jupiter: 600 GH/s / 768 cores = 781 MH/s per core
Neptune: 4 chips * 1440 cores * 781 MH/s per core = 4.5 TH/s
The Genesis Block estimation:
IF Neptune Hashrate = 4.125 TH/sStarting in March: ROI reached within the first 30 days - 15 BTC (original price of Neptune) + 19.7 BTC by October, Total BTC = 34.7
Starting in April: ROI reached in June - 15 BTC (original price of Neptune) + 3.8 BTC by October, Total BTC = 18.8
If Neptune Hashrate = 4.5 TH/sStarting in March: ROI reached within the first 30 days - 15 BTC (original price of Neptune) + 22.9 BTC by October, Total BTC = 37.9
Starting in April: ROI reached in June - 15 BTC (original price of Neptune) +
3.8 5.7 BTC by October, Total BTC = 20.7
At the current exchange rate of $659.97 we could purchase just over 19 BTC. That changes dramatically, down to only 15.3 BTC, if the exchange rate of BTC to USD is closer to $850 when we receive a refund. As you can see, worst case scenario, it is likely that we will have a net sum difference of just a little more BTC (~0.3-0.4?) if we were fortunate enough to get a refund in time (or at a time) to exchange the funds for BTC at ~$660.
Estimation of Potential Gain with refund: Negligible
Estimation of Loss Potential with refund: Minimal
Estimation of Potential Gain if Neptune kept: Significant
Estimation of Loss Potential: (likely) Negligible
(Of course, things change fast. We don't yet know exactly how "Plan B" will compensate Neptune customers. And we don't know if KnC will be able to increase the 20nm chips hashing power at a higher percentage than they were able to do with Jupiters 28nm chips.)