Topic: ⭐ Crypto.Games ⭐ 0.8% House Edge on Dice ⭐ Largest wagering contest...ever ⭐ - page 94. (Read 346455 times)

when someone with just 0.169% of all tickets won almost 4 ETH. So I bought one ticket for the next round. Who knows, maybe lady luck will smile at me this time. )

Great challenge! At first I tried to hit a 50x payout on Plinko playing with blue ball. Never hit it but
was in profit after 20 minutes of play. Then I tried my fav game on Crypto-Games, Video Poker, and although didn't hit Straight flush or Royal flush, was overall in profit too.

Then I bought myself a ticket for the ETH Lottery (round 162 ends in 16 hours), and although my win chance is only 0.1053%, I hope to win.

Good luck to all the participants!

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@Betwrong: all you need is a ticket and a good portion of luck to win, so 1 ticket is better than none at all. Good luck.

SuperStar is back and again having a nice dice session so far. His wager of this month is now at 215 BTC and rising, while this is only the 3rd day of the month

His total wagered amount is now over 2,570 BTC and he's still on a nice profit.



@Betwrong: all you need is a ticket and a good portion of luck to win, so 1 ticket is better than none at all. Good luck.

Crypto-Games Challenge ongoing, plenty of prizes to win and only a few days left till end! More details here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/crypto-gamesnet-challenge-1-btc-in-pot-up-to-007-btc-per-bet-5154803.
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Profit is what investors actually get, not what they get before "X".

Investors profit is always minus fees and rewards, or it isn't investors profit.

That's what you weren't mentioning, and it makes a big difference.

No. Its not. Graph shows actual profit paid out to investors after fees. There is one issue with graph that I am aware of... bankroll size isn't 100% precise on graph as we don't store it in database every day, but we show sum of all active investments on that day including todays profits (active investments change all the time...). Graph is more for informative purposes.

Once again, graph is sum of profit investors made. Thats all. Minus all the fees and rewards.

What do you mean with that? I'm just using data from your graph. Aren't those supposed to be the profits that investors made (although as I'm saying I made around 70% of that amount)?

I don't see referer and faucet rewards in your formula?

Well, the difference is quite big from what I actually made and coincidentally it's very near the profits I would have had without fees. I run the same exercise but every month, which should be more accurate than just assuming bankroll was constant since July 25 2018, and I get that returns following your graph would have been 10.19% (bigger than if bankroll had been constant since that date, as I previously thought), while I made only 7.43%:

Date   Bankroll   Profit   Capital if bankroll is Constant during the month   My investment
07/25/18   1523.63   1133.86   1.0000   1.0000
08/01/18   1549.17   1134.93   1.0007   
09/01/18   1526.08   1146.17   1.0080   
10/01/18   1527.49   1148.98   1.0098   
11/01/18   1515.00   1203.59   1.0459   
12/01/18   1447.85   1212.71   1.0522   
01/01/19   1486.70   1226.54   1.0623   
02/01/19   1496.46   1241.40   1.0729   
03/01/19   1476.07   1246.89   1.0768   
04/01/19   1440.69   1263.00   1.0886   
05/01/19   1385.25   1272.56   1.0958   
06/01/19   1382.68   1284.69   1.1054   
07/01/19   1285.11   1280.17   1.1018   
07/02/19   1285.84   1280.30   1.1019   1.0743


The formula to calculate capital is ((profit at that point in time-previous profit)/previous casino bankroll+1)*previous capital.

For example, for 8/1/18: ((1134.93-1133.86)/1523.63+1)*1

No. Its not. Graph shows actual profit paid out to investors after fees. There is one issue with graph that I am aware of... bankroll size isn't 100% precise on graph as we don't store it in database every day, but we show sum of all active investments on that day including todays profits (active investments change all the time...). Graph is more for informative purposes.

Anyway, I'll split that time in different periods as you say and see what's going on, but I suspect the graph is showing profits before fees.

Not necessarily. As the bankroll decreases in size, your share of it goes up, which means you share more of the profit, but equally share more of the losses of the house as well.
Lately, SuperStar has been winning a lot (a combined profit over 10BTC at the time of this writing), which are losses that are proportionally stemmed by all investments.

Let me explain this with an example:
Say you have 15BTC invested as part of a 1500BTC bankroll. For a fixed period of time, the profit for investors is 100BTC. You share 1% of that, increasing your investment to 16BTC.
Now the bankroll drops to 1000BTC. In the following period, investors make a loss of 20BTC. The chart would show 100BTC-20BTC= 80BTC of investors profit over both periods.
Your 16BTC investment shares 1.6% of that (0.32BTC), decreasing your investment size after both periods to 15.68BTC.
While the calculations over a fixed bankroll tell you to expect (100-20)/1500= 5.3%, in reality you see 15.68/15= 4.2%

This effect of losses at a later time compared to profit at an early time is increased by the fact that any profit made by your investment gets automatically added to it and becomes part of your investment.
That means that not only does the total bankroll decreases, giving you a bigger share of losses to cover, but also your individual investment increases, further driving up your share.

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Side note: I thought I had already been pushing my accuracy with a 3 month period. 1 year is just too long a time to make a rough estimate over, imho.
If you want anything accurate, split the year into 4 or even better 6 or 12 parts and calculate expectations for each one of them.