Topic: ⭐ Crypto.Games ⭐ 0.8% House Edge on Dice ⭐ Largest wagering contest...ever ⭐ - page 94. (Read 345929 times)

Investors profit is always minus fees and rewards, or it isn't investors profit.

That's what you weren't mentioning, and it makes a big difference.

Once again, graph is sum of profit investors made. Thats all. Minus all the fees and rewards.

I don't see referer and faucet rewards in your formula?

Well, the difference is quite big from what I actually made and coincidentally it's very near the profits I would have had without fees. I run the same exercise but every month, which should be more accurate than just assuming bankroll was constant since July 25 2018, and I get that returns following your graph would have been 10.19% (bigger than if bankroll had been constant since that date, as I previously thought), while I made only 7.43%:

Date   Bankroll   Profit   Capital if bankroll is Constant during the month   My investment
07/25/18   1523.63   1133.86   1.0000   1.0000
08/01/18   1549.17   1134.93   1.0007   
09/01/18   1526.08   1146.17   1.0080   
10/01/18   1527.49   1148.98   1.0098   
11/01/18   1515.00   1203.59   1.0459   
12/01/18   1447.85   1212.71   1.0522   
01/01/19   1486.70   1226.54   1.0623   
02/01/19   1496.46   1241.40   1.0729   
03/01/19   1476.07   1246.89   1.0768   
04/01/19   1440.69   1263.00   1.0886   
05/01/19   1385.25   1272.56   1.0958   
06/01/19   1382.68   1284.69   1.1054   
07/01/19   1285.11   1280.17   1.1018   
07/02/19   1285.84   1280.30   1.1019   1.0743


The formula to calculate capital is ((profit at that point in time-previous profit)/previous casino bankroll+1)*previous capital.

For example, for 8/1/18: ((1134.93-1133.86)/1523.63+1)*1

No. Its not. Graph shows actual profit paid out to investors after fees. There is one issue with graph that I am aware of... bankroll size isn't 100% precise on graph as we don't store it in database every day, but we show sum of all active investments on that day including todays profits (active investments change all the time...). Graph is more for informative purposes.

Anyway, I'll split that time in different periods as you say and see what's going on, but I suspect the graph is showing profits before fees.

I used the second way of calculating it. These are the exact numbers (in Bitcoins):
July 25 2018.  Bankroll: 1521.37. Profit: 1133.86
Today (now). Bankroll: 1281.73. Profit: 1276.78
So, assuming bankroll didn't change, investors should had made in that period of time: (1276.78-1133.86)/1521.37=9.39%
As bankroll kept dropping, profits for someone that stayed invested all the time would actually be higher.

What a lucky man!He didnt stop after getting that 1BTC max reward. Who said that martingale doesnt work? 

This seems to be his strategy, good ol' martingale:

There seems to be something wrong with "profit" at the invest charts. From July 25 2018 to today I made 7.158% on my investment, while the graph shows a profit of 9.39% based on the initial bankroll on July 25 2018. Bankroll has actually kept on dropping since then, so profits should actually be higher than that if adjusted to the bankroll that existed every day (which is something that would take a lot of time to calculate, but it'd be higher than 9.39% for sure). This makes me think that what is shown in that graph aren't investor profits, but "profits" before the 0.3% fee you charged investors every hour (on wagered amount), so around 70% of what investors actually made.

I think I understand your confusion and I have previously discussed this topic with someone else who had a similar question (IIRC it was thenerd314, who afaik reads along this thread, so if he wants to chime in...).
Since I don't quite recall whether it was in this thread, in my tracking thread, or in the chat, and since searching all 200 pages/my 5000 posts would be a lot for me to go through,
I'll briefly sum up the essence of it once again. Feel free to follow up on my explanations, in either of the three places.

---

For better understanding, I will use the numbers from the BTC chart as examples (also, since BTC is the most popular together with ETH, it likely is the one you were looking at or others would have questions about).
I'll look at the chart in a 3 month period (meaning from Oct 18th to Jan 19th, you can replicate the view I get with the 3mo button).
For those reading at a later point, or not familiar with the chart, this are the numbers shown:

Bankroll Size: relatively stable, starting at 1497.6BTC, ending at 1477.7BTC, lowest at 1342.8BTC, highest at 1519.9BTC,
for the sake of making an estimate, I will appraise the bankroll size to be fixed at 1480BTC in my calculations.
This introduces a small error, but the accurate calculation is too complicated and not needed to explain what I want to show.

Total profit: starting at 1198.15BTC, ending at 1235.31BTC, which equals a profit of ~37BTC for all Bitcoin investors over the last three months.

---

What I assume you did (and correct me if I am wrong, but that's the misunderstanding I helped clearing up in the past) is the following:

If the total profit grew from 1198 BTC to 1236 BTC, meaning an increase of 3.1%, then my investment should increase by 3.1% as well.
However, this is wrong. The total profit line/number tracks investors profit from the very beginning of public investments and shows the raw profit,
without taking bankroll size (the second line in the chart) into consideration.
To calculate the increase of your individual investment, you have to take this number and weight it against your share of the bankroll.
With Bitcoin, and the numbers being so close together (1200BTC and 1400BTC), people sometimes forget about this, since the above increase is "realistically" possible.

If we do this with a profit of 37BTC and a bankroll of 1480BTC (our earlier appraisal), we would get an increase of 2.5%, not 3.1%.
This should be closer to the return you have seen.
However it still is not 100% accurate, since the bankroll size changed due to new investors and leaving investors,
thus at some points your investment had a lower share of the profits and at some points it had a higher share.

---

I hope this explanation has helped some of you to understand reading the charts and gathering the information from them they desire.
I would urge everyone with more specific questions about investments (or a follow up to this) to head over to the dedicated investment (tracking) thread maintained by me:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/archived-profit-tracking-2445163
This way, discussions like this one can be easier found by others having the same questions, and do not get burried within hundreds of pages about other aspects of the site.
I'll also link this response specifically in my "special posts" section over there to make finding it easier in the future.

Yes martingale will always work in the end if thry have enough balance to cover the lost. Like him in the current time holding 10 btc and start to play from small basebet sure will get some profit in the end. But the only problem is how long will he go for this or how much does he want to earn here? As long as there is no end he will be disadvantage here. Anyway congrats for him to have won big amount there. I was wondering who will go next

Yes martingale will always work in the end if thry have enough balance to cover the lost. Like him in the current time holding 10 btc and start to play from small basebet sure will get some profit in the end. But the only problem is how long will he go for this or how much does he want to earn here? As long as there is no end he will be disadvantage here. Anyway congrats for him to have won big amount there. I was wondering who will go next