Topic: DiceBitco.in - New Thread to Discuss - page 11. (Read 20704 times)

Actually, isn't that how you should model someones gambling session?  Blindly gambling until they stop when they've run out of money, or when they've hit a certain number of bets?  (there is 0% chance in which a player can walk away with 100% of the total casino bankroll)  Which is what Joecker's doing in his model.


What i'm saying is that your premise is incorrect, Because you are using the Kelly Formula to predict risk of ruin.  But the formula requires the betting situation to be +EV (positive).  Dice is -EV (1% house edge remember).

What joecker has done is the correct model.. let me explain in more detail.  here is a simple model of how this dice session should go.  The Total wagered amount by mateo should be around 50-60K, his profit around 500-600.  The Standard Deviation of dice at 49.5% is 1 (other %'s will provide very different standard deviations).  His total bet # is 60K. So average bet size is 1BTC.  We can then find the probability of this happening by doing a statistical test.  I have reposted Joecker's analysis below.


To be honest, the average betsize might be smaller than 1BTC since after the bankroll dropped smaller than 200btc, the maxbet was smaller than 1btc.  This would make the analysis above on the conservative side.  With a Z-score approaching almost 5, the evidence points more and more to something virtually impossible happening.  It could happen, but at the probability of 4.8x10^-7.

Joecker, I don't understand why you need to model the stdev as approaching 1.  The standard deviation of the winnings of dice played at 49.5% is = 1.  you're probably using a different method to calculate that?

i just used a dice simulator over millions of rolls to determine the STDEV of the dice game at different %s, since different % really do provide a different standard deviation.

For the sake of doing "good" math here ;P ..
As pointed out by a1choi, Kelly's formula doesn't not apply. And to take into account the probability of ruin of the casino here (like nicolaennio wish), one as to compute the conditional probability P[S > 600 | S< initialBankRoll]... which leaves the probability unchanged if initBR=1100...

Is there any info who lost the most money in this scam?

Yes, it's the same owner(s). He mentioned it in the official DB thread (now locked). He also said that they're considering launching a DOGE site, but I sense that's no longer the case

it probobly is

you should probobly avoid that site as well

I do not think this is the correct model for computing the probability of mateo. It seems you assume that the player arrives and blindfolded bets for 60K times and at the end he just leaves the website with what is left in the pocket. But this is not like that, the players bets until there is money in the bankroll and for fun (I guess winning the bankroll is a lot of fun). If he just wins the bankroll in the middle of playing he just goes away, without extra rollings.

Also I cannot reproduce the result the 1 to 10 millions estimate, I run a simple script simulating a player betting 60K times at 0.5% of the bankroll (half-kelly as in the website) and on 10000 repetitions I get 4 times a final bankroll smaller than 15%.


I do not follow your reasoning (maybe you can be clearer?) but I am using a very standard tool. If you run some simulations you can check by yourself that the formula you find in the link is correct.

I wonder if it has same owner as dicebitco.in?

They charge 10% commission on profits. I think it would likely have something to do with this.

Currently DB is reporting:

Bankroll:   522
Profit:   -320
Invested:   1131

Don't all invested funds get added to the bankroll?  Why is the bankroll less than half of what's currently invested?

It's always a shame to see things like this happen, especially given all of the honest operators who are in this for the long run (Primedice, Just-dice when they accepted bets, Win88 ...)

Operators should always aim to play the long game and it's critical to be honest and fair across the board.
And to have rockstar developers who build things right and use much more precision than 8 decimal places.

At win88.me we paid back our investors when we were allowing 99.99% edge investments (which was of course riskier for investors given dead even odds).
And we did so without anyone even asking. 

It's important to be proactive with or without a mistake and in this case I hope that DiceBitco.in finds a way to make things right with their players for the sake of integrity with the overall industry.

so the Z score of that happening is 4.9. thats a 1 out of 2,130,000 chance.

About how impossible mateo's winning were.. I made a few mistakes when computing the prob and corrected it. Sorry ! Since it was discussed here and here, I thought I'd come back.

The approximation actually gives a probability of winning +600 btc like mateo did of about 1 in 1 to 10 millions... (for extreme values like here final result is highly influenced by the computers numerical methods and their accuracy).

Whatever... mateo cheated. And fuck the scammer.

See what a hundred thousand simulations of normal 60k bets looks like (histogram=simulations, curve=model), the max profit was 424. Play with the numbers...

I'm sorry, but you're using Dubious math.  Kelly Betting is actually the amount the House "bets" which will increase their bankroll the quickest.  The Player does not enjoy kelly bets as they are betting in a -EV situation.  Kelly Betting is only for +EV (which in the case only pertains the House).  Thus the formula you are using to determine the chances of bankroll going to a certain % is not correct.  The correct % will be much much lower than 2%.


WOW VINBOY. Do i understand you correctly.  You still WANT to play at this shithole?  How do you know they've really fixed the issue.  Just "Trust" what they say?  And basically what you said about the Last Investors getting fucked.  You think THATs somehow OK?  That only the last guys get fucked?

So you're saying that these guys are a fucking ponzi scam then?  Since the last suckers in a ponzi also get scammed too..

In my eyes, thats exactly what Manl/Gerry did..  Nothing better than a ponzi scam.

Edit: Also, stop rationalizing that these guys ONLY fucked people out of a little bit of money, and NOT run away with the 7K.  Scamming is scamming, whether for 0.01BTC or for 7K.  Just because they didn't take the money and run doesn't mean shit.  IT does not mean they're good guys.

For all that I know, they'd rather ONLY scam the last investors, instead of 100% of their investors.  Cuz they'd rather only have a few people after their heads, than everyone in the dice community.

Please also post here if you should have won BTC, but did not due to the nonce rigging, and was refused compensation by DiceBitco.in for your rightful winnings.

Yep. Leave them negative feedback.

Because there are a lot of users keeping their sign to get a few bucks from their ad campaign. They are more greedy than these thiefts.

Milk the cow longer and make udder confusion?

FTFY, I'll show myself out.

If shit already hit the fan, and if you were a scammer wouldnt you want to milk the cow more longer. And make a utter confusion, like disabling chat etc. 

Its how most people work, typical mind set of a scammer.

I am still curious to as why the site is still functional.
It seems they have no BTC in their wallets, and are just showing an investment of 1100 BTC to attract other players unaware of the scam. This would lead to those new player being scammed. For this reason the site should be shut down.