DiceBitco.in - New Thread to Discuss - page 2.

NLNico

legendary

Activity: 1876

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DiceSites.com owner

Awww dooglus was before me, but I was also typing summary lol:

So 600 BTC was added to cold wallet 19tQNCrmaW6EADfJrtBaRixRkPyVrvb6yk, so my very basic blockchain analysis says this:

Mateo's deposit address seems 1A3rRhZHZkxaEUtbCto9cdTXKDxAveVxyG (source of that 600 BTC)

Going back:

He "deposited" 75 BTC on 2014-08-06 from 1Kik5z8fkZMai5DBgyBGjggFXAqVubrMk

Mateo withdrew 653.427 btc on 2014-09-09 to 3 addresses (3 withdrawals perhaps):
15B7kFfPJjRwhsPUBhE294nS18tuNW1jJE
1Hudb5hR4v8EhHGCjFmAqniPtfxdhGuTqW
15rdsWhmi8TbJJex9seGnG3nndMV3nqkM8

He didn't do anything with these coins in the meantime, but deposited 650 BTC on 2014-09-17:
1A3rRhZHZkxaEUtbCto9cdTXKDxAveVxyG

Few strange / interesting things IMO:

1) Would any whale deposit all 650 BTC to start playing again? Or just first 50 BTC, 100 BTC, then maybe tilt add the rest?

2) Between the "deposit" of 75 BTC and big withdrawal there is more than a month? They did say he was -33 before the winnings.

3) 1Kik5z8fkZMai5DBgyBGjggFXAqVubrMk seems a hot wallet? Was that a DB hot wallet? If so, would the only 2 explanations be: he had a former account and w/d from there into the mateo account, or it's the owner?

4) Total output of 600 BTC deposit, was 650 BTC, 50 BTC went to 122pzTq7wM3MuyohY8DGi1QNjFashzpdgS. How is that supposed to work within the depo/wd system of DB?

I am not very good at analyzing the blockchain, so correct me if some of my "assumptions" are wrong

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: suchmoon on September 17, 2014, 08:48:09 PM

Although my other theory that the initial 600 BTC mateo win was already in the bankroll seems to have been disproved. There is now 1600 BTC in the cold wallet, so that amount had to come from somewhere. Not sure what to think of it.

So is this Mateo's deposit address?

https://blockchain.info/address/1A3rRhZHZkxaEUtbCto9cdTXKDxAveVxyG

2014-08-06 16:23:02 Mateo deposits 75 BTC, presumably invests it
2014-08-06 18:06:57 Mateo's 75 BTC and a bunch of other deposits are shuffled off to the cold wallet

2014-09-17 13:20:22 Mateo deposits 650 BTC
2014-09-17 23:42:05 600 of that is moved to the cold wallet

The 650 BTC deposit came from 3 separate inputs, each of which appears to come from a withdrawal from DB:

23c00ec6 takes 1626 btc from cold wallet 2014-09-08 15:36:11
b32436a4 pays someone 165 btc 2014-09-08 15:57:46
a522fff9 pays someone 21 btc 2014-09-08 16:35:00
bbd6d827 pays someone 1 btc 2014-09-08 18:44:04
b2dc009f pays someone 13 btc 2014-09-09 08:59:47
d1320a11 pays Mateo 274.5499 btc - which is the 1st input of the 650 deposit 2014-09-09 15:11:09
22da4081 pays someone 347 btc 2014-09-09 15:11:10
5abe3ae3 pays Mateo 177.3999 btc - which is the 3rd input of the 650 deposit 2014-09-09 15:11:11
906dcda6 pays Mateo 201.47735735 btc - which is the 2nd input of the 650 deposit 2014-09-09 15:11:12

I don't know what any of that tells us, other than that the coins Mateo just lost seem to have been withdrawn from DB and redeposited without being used for anything in between.

Edit: I should point out that each of these transactions is a child of the one before it; they form a chain. Each (other than the first) has just one input, so you can follow the chain back from the last to the first.

a1choi

sr. member

Activity: 323

Merit: 254

Quote from: zorke on September 17, 2014, 08:53:28 PM

They said they planned on trying to get private investors to invest in their site. If they have a positive profit showing on their site then they will have an easier time getting private investors to invest, investors who would more likely agree to leave their investment in their site for longer periods of time.

The fact that Mateo lost a whole bunch of money does not dispel any questions i have about the validity of this user account. Actually it just piles on the questions. How he could have SUCH an amazing win streak then a ridiculous loss streak is just crazy.

just hope people don't fall for it. but new suckers are born every min.

zorke

full member

Activity: 238

Merit: 100

Quote from: finnile on September 17, 2014, 08:37:16 PM

Quote from: wasserman99 on September 17, 2014, 08:26:00 PM

Okay I don't see how it would be possible how they could have made ~600 BTC in less then a day.

The chances of them even having 600 BTC in bets in one day when they were averaging 100 BTC in bets per day are in itself slim.

This is speculation, however I think their stats on their site are not accurate, and are trying to lure people to invest in their site and gamble on their site.

I am not sure if that might be true. So almost every major dice site out there has investments less than 1000 BTC. And hardly any of those is in profits of more than 100 BTC. Even if DB was to come back, I doubt specially after the incident anyone would risk their coins on it.

The Bankroll of the site gained 600 BTC today. If mateo was manl, then it would mean he gave up 600 BTC to revive the site in the hope to lure in more investors. And looking at the stats on other sites, and specially after the incident, I doubt people would risk their BTC, and specially 600 BTC would be a big amount to aim for , for a site that had been proven to be rigged. And it is pretty much impossible for the site to get more than 600 BTC of investment after all this. And even after that he would have to activate mateo again(assuming its him) to take down the entire BR again.

Plus if he wanted to steal more BTC he would have just done it before, during the time of the incident, before people could divest.

They said they planned on trying to get private investors to invest in their site. If they have a positive profit showing on their site then they will have an easier time getting private investors to invest, investors who would more likely agree to leave their investment in their site for longer periods of time.

a1choi

sr. member

Activity: 323

Merit: 254

if only "Mateo" would come on here to dispell all the myths. I think every one of the whales in the dice world have come on BTCT to talk about their wins/losses. except for Mateo..

suchmoon

legendary

Activity: 3654

Merit: 8909

https://bpip.org

Quote from: finnile on September 17, 2014, 08:37:16 PM

Quote from: wasserman99 on September 17, 2014, 08:26:00 PM

Okay I don't see how it would be possible how they could have made ~600 BTC in less then a day.

The chances of them even having 600 BTC in bets in one day when they were averaging 100 BTC in bets per day are in itself slim.

This is speculation, however I think their stats on their site are not accurate, and are trying to lure people to invest in their site and gamble on their site.

I am not sure if that might be true. So almost every major dice site out there has investments less than 1000 BTC. And hardly any of those is in profits of more than 100 BTC. Even if DB was to come back, I doubt specially after the incident anyone would risk their coins on it.

The Bankroll of the site gained 600 BTC today. If mateo was manl, then it would mean he gave up 600 BTC to revive the site in the hope to lure in more investors. And looking at the stats on other sites, and specially after the incident, I doubt people would risk their BTC, and specially 600 BTC would be a big amount to aim for , for a site that had been proven to be rigged. And it is pretty much impossible for the site to get more than 600 BTC of investment after all this. And even after that he would have to activate mateo again(assuming its him) to take down the entire BR again.

Plus if he wanted to steal more BTC he would have just done it before, during the time of the incident, before people could divest.

They wouldn't have to sacrifice the whole 600 BTC if they were playing against themselves. Although my other theory that the initial 600 BTC mateo win was already in the bankroll seems to have been disproved. There is now 1600 BTC in the cold wallet, so that amount had to come from somewhere. Not sure what to think of it.

finnile

full member

Activity: 196

Merit: 104

Quote from: wasserman99 on September 17, 2014, 08:26:00 PM

Okay I don't see how it would be possible how they could have made ~600 BTC in less then a day.

The chances of them even having 600 BTC in bets in one day when they were averaging 100 BTC in bets per day are in itself slim.

This is speculation, however I think their stats on their site are not accurate, and are trying to lure people to invest in their site and gamble on their site.

I am not sure if that might be true. So almost every major dice site out there has investments less than 1000 BTC. And hardly any of those is in profits of more than 100 BTC. Even if DB was to come back, I doubt specially after the incident anyone would risk their coins on it.

The Bankroll of the site gained 600 BTC today. If mateo was manl, then it would mean he gave up 600 BTC to revive the site in the hope to lure in more investors. And looking at the stats on other sites, and specially after the incident, I doubt people would risk their BTC, and specially 600 BTC would be a big amount to aim for , for a site that had been proven to be rigged. And it is pretty much impossible for the site to get more than 600 BTC of investment after all this. And even after that he would have to activate mateo again(assuming its him) to take down the entire BR again.

Plus if he wanted to steal more BTC he would have just done it before, during the time of the incident, before people could divest.

GaleMartins

newbie

Activity: 18

Merit: 0

Quote from: Gws24 on September 17, 2014, 07:22:13 PM

If I compare the screenshots then there was roughly (very) a 350 BTC profit for the site with 13,000 BTC wagered. That is a house edge of 2.7% in about 150.000 bets. What I would like to know is how many bets would be enough to be statiscally significant? What I mean is, do these kind of swings in the house edge happen over those number of bets or do we need millions to converge to 1% or even more? Dooglus, any idea?

I think you can use Chernoff bounds for that, check wikipedia.

wasserman99

sr. member

Activity: 476

Merit: 250

Quote from: dooglus on September 17, 2014, 08:15:14 PM

Quote from: Gws24 on September 17, 2014, 07:22:13 PM

If I compare the screenshots then there was roughly (very) a 350 BTC profit for the site with 13,000 BTC wagered. That is a house edge of 2.7% in about 150.000 bets. What I would like to know is how many bets would be enough to be statiscally significant? What I mean is, do these kind of swings in the house edge happen over those number of bets or do we need millions to converge to 1% or even more? Dooglus, any idea?

Here are the last 2 data points I have:

Wed Sep 17 07:42:31 PDT 2014 profit: -297.32139723 invested: 1,531.01564543 wagered: 92,186.6599 bets: 51,133,608 BANK: 944.47462087
Wed Sep 17 16:43:29 PDT 2014 profit: 326.75800395 invested: 1,658.95634765 wagered: 121,997.1963 bets: 51,810,085 BANK: 1,696.31436053

I don't know how to answer your questions, but I can tell you that Just-Dice had over a billion bets and ended up with a profit of less than 0.4% of the total amount wagered even though the house edge was 1% throughout.

So even a billion bets isn't enough to get the actual profit close to the theoretical profit.

Part of that is because a huge percentage of that billion bets are tiny in comparison to the big bets. Another part seems to be that the "large" in the "law of large numbers" is bigger than you might naively expect it to be.

Okay I don't see how it would be possible how they could have made ~600 BTC in less then a day.

The chances of them even having 600 BTC in bets in one day when they were averaging 100 BTC in bets per day are in itself slim.

This is speculation, however I think their stats on their site are not accurate, and are trying to lure people to invest in their site and gamble on their site.

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: Gws24 on September 17, 2014, 07:22:13 PM

If I compare the screenshots then there was roughly (very) a 350 BTC profit for the site with 13,000 BTC wagered. That is a house edge of 2.7% in about 150.000 bets. What I would like to know is how many bets would be enough to be statiscally significant? What I mean is, do these kind of swings in the house edge happen over those number of bets or do we need millions to converge to 1% or even more? Dooglus, any idea?

Here are the last 2 data points I have:

Wed Sep 17 07:42:31 PDT 2014 profit: -297.32139723 invested: 1,531.01564543 wagered: 92,186.6599 bets: 51,133,608 BANK: 944.47462087
Wed Sep 17 16:43:29 PDT 2014 profit: 326.75800395 invested: 1,658.95634765 wagered: 121,997.1963 bets: 51,810,085 BANK: 1,696.31436053

I don't know how to answer your questions, but I can tell you that Just-Dice had over a billion bets and ended up with a profit of less than 0.4% of the total amount wagered even though the house edge was 1% throughout.

So even a billion bets isn't enough to get the actual profit close to the theoretical profit.

Part of that is because a huge percentage of that billion bets are tiny in comparison to the big bets. Another part seems to be that the "large" in the "law of large numbers" is bigger than you might naively expect it to be.

Cluster2k

legendary

Activity: 1692

Merit: 1018

Well, this is very curious. Mateo goes on an improbable winning streak and almost crashes the bankroll. Now it returns and hands those profits back, with interest. First time mateo was rather exceptional in its luck, second time around it played exactly as expected: the house won.

I don't know what to think right now. Maybe, maybe mateo was an all in, balls and all YOLO type gambler who couldn't resist having another crack. Without the ability to verify bets I still have my doubts.

Cyrax89721

sr. member

Activity: 321

Merit: 250

There's no winning with you people. Mateo wins, and suddenly the site is rigged in his favor. Mateo loses, and suddenly it's "all a part of a master plan." If any of you are so convinced that the site is a massive scam, why do you still pay attention to it?

Gws24

hero member

Activity: 537

Merit: 524

If I compare the screenshots then there was roughly (very) a 350 BTC profit for the site with 13,000 BTC wagered. That is a house edge of 2.7% in about 150.000 bets. What I would like to know is how many bets would be enough to be statiscally significant? What I mean is, do these kind of swings in the house edge happen over those number of bets or do we need millions to converge to 1% or even more? Dooglus, any idea?

suchmoon

legendary

Activity: 3654

Merit: 8909

https://bpip.org

I wonder if this is going to be our weekly entertainment routine to watch those 600 BTC swings, or is this supposed to make the site "whole" and continue as if nothing happened.

Stars

sr. member

Activity: 462

Merit: 250

If anyone looks at mateo betting and thinks oh shit, maybe he is legit and you invest your coins you deserve to lose them. It's obvious what manl is doing, he's trying to make mateo look like a legit whale so people will invest and then when enough people have invested, mateo will go on another spree and take the bankroll back down and you will LOSE your coins.

Gws24

hero member

Activity: 537

Merit: 524

As far as I know that has never been a problem. Most of the 7000 btc in the cold wallet was paid out to people de-investing and cashing out. The only people getting burned were the ones with skipped nonces as well as the people still invested when mateo made his run two weeks ago.

finnile

full member

Activity: 196

Merit: 104

Can the investors still withdraw their bitcoins?
Anyone who tried, can you please confirm?

Gws24

hero member

Activity: 537

Merit: 524

Didn't mean to imply there is cheating is involved. Just find it an interesting exercise to calculate the odds with incomplete data but I don't have the relevant skills to do it. Maybe my wording was a bit 'harsh'.

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: Gws24 on September 17, 2014, 06:44:55 PM

Anyone one want to do the math on how likely this run is?

All runs of any significant length are incredibly unlikely.

We can look at last week's lottery numbers and work out how unlikely they were to be drawn, yet they were drawn.

Every week yet another exceptionally unlikely set of numbers get drawn, and someone (probably cheating, right?) gets to win millions of times their stake.

Gws24

hero member

Activity: 537

Merit: 524

lol, bad seed this time? It's basically the reverse of last time.

Anyone one want to do the math on how likely this run is?

Earlier in the thread there was some discussion on how many bets Mateo made and the number per second. Today when he was betting 0.5 BTC it seemed to be something like 5 per second from what I saw briefly but now you can see it can at least go as high as 9 per second.

Topic: DiceBitco.in - New Thread to Discuss - page 2. (Read 20704 times)