Topic: Diff thread Nov 11 to Nov 24 Set up stage-picks are now closed! - page 7. (Read 8571 times)

What fire? Do you have a link?

Will definitely be an interesting diff period this cycle, the next one is the one I am really interested about.


Ufo

okay day 8

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

11-11-2015   169 blocks  this is a plus 25   now the first 77 blocks were on the last adjustment  So  on a part day I guess +14

11-12-2015  158 blocks this is plus 14    total is +28
 
11-13-2015   161 blocks  this is plus 17 total is +45

11-14-2015   146 + 2                               +47

11-15-2015   156 is +12                           +59    

 11-16-2015  172 is +28                           +87

11-17-2015   146 is +2                             +89   and plus 2 looks nice

11-18-2015   156 is +12                           +101

we are 1208  made should be  1107  I get (+9.12% )

which is a little worse then bitcoinwisdom

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (+8.27%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   71,295,466,565 (+8.27%)
Adjust time:   After 808 Blocks, About 5.2 days
Hashrate(?):   513,100,488 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.2 minutes
3 blocks: 27.6 minutes
6 blocks: 55.1 minutes
Updated:   22:30 (4.5 minutes ago)


http://nextdifficulty.com/

is 9.1 to 15. with 10.6 as most likely


Conservative: 9.1% 10.6% Continous: 15 %
Next Difficulty Value:72794150521
Change will happen on appr. November 24, 2015, 6:51 am
Blocks to solve in this difficulty: 812 ------------ based on 812 so they are 4 behind bitcoinwisdom


I see 7 as an unlikely low and 12 as an unlikely high

with 9.5 as very close.

but look at last year's numbers

Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s nicest
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s nicer
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s nice
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s ---------- big run up

Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s two nice
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s  ^^^^
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s two runups
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s ^^^^^

Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s


these are encouraging

Just closed picks

'

Don't think they are wrong. Maybe off by 1% or so.

Hope http://nextdifficulty.com/ is wrong and some bad luck hits soon!


Ufo

816 blocks remaining in this cycle. Picks are officially closed, Phil will update the thread title when he gets back.

Here is a useful chart to illustrate what was happening the last few days. As you can see AntPool, BTCChina, F2Pool, and especially KnC had exceptional luck.

http://data.bitcoinity.org/bitcoin/hashrate/7d?c=m&t=a

Last Call
We are exactly at Block 816 so pretty much Done

Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   71,355,990,814 (+8.36%)
Adjust time:   After 816 Blocks, About 5.2 days

7 blocks to go!

Edit: which shows that we only made 4 since Phil's post an hour ago, yay

you are in time we have 11 blocks to closing

I need to be off line  so if someone wants to track closing please do so.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   71,492,887,688 (+8.57%)  current guess by them.
Adjust time:   After 827 Blocks, About 5.3 days ---------------we close at 816
Hashrate(?):   522,355,469 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.2 minutes
3 blocks: 27.4 minutes
6 blocks: 54.9 minutes
Updated:   19:25 (1.4 minutes ago)

+9.0 = Ufo

got that.

to all we have 38 blocks for picks


 (+8.21%)  is bitcoinwisdom's number.

OK, I am in:

+8.3 = alh

Thanks again for running this Phil, and suchmoon for funding it!

yeah, check this out:
http://bravenewcoin.com/news/imf-unable-to-supply-the-currency-needed-to-counter-speculative-attack-using-bitcoin/

close enough.  it looks to me that  bitmaintech and avalon are both going to sell gear like mad.

So at times big flux will happen.

I also think all builders of asics know that NOV. DEC. JAN.  = cold = sales

I ALSO suspect bitmaintech can make and sell an s-7 for 500 usd and turn profit.   

Which means they could have 10,000 of them  for a cost of say 3,500,000.

 Sell them slowly at 1500  once they sold 2400 of them.  the other 7600 are free.

7600 machines  are 36ph  that could be turned on and off to mine at will.

they would need 10 megawatts  .  it is possible this is being done.

Remember the gear is paid for.  I saw a tv show on 60 minutes about empty cities in China.  their construction was government funded.

whats 10mega watts to a large government? nothing.

Why do all this?  WTF do I know.  But it would go beyond the money angle if it was being done.

You can see it quite clearly here on this graph..  http://nextdifficulty.com/
Best Regards

Currently
Net Hashrate

426,357.08 TH/s

d57heinz

picks have started
you can pick lower then me if you dare
      
-1.2  =  lolxxx                  looks like I have a visitor!!    
-1.1  =  philipma1957
      
-0.0   =
    
 0.0   =      
 
+2.0 = BTCish  

+3.1 = RichBC
+3.2 = Tupsu
+3.3 = edonkey

+4.0 = mavericklm
+4.1 = Biodom
+4.2 = HerbPean
+4.3 = dukeneptun
+4.4
+4.5 = ingiltere

+4.8 = DanDan
+4.9
+5.0 = adaseb

+5.4 = tss
+5.5
+5.6 = vortexz

+5.9 = Mikestang
+6.0
+6.1 = cakir
+6.3 = Last of the V8s
+6.6 = wlefever
+6.7 = DanielRo

+7.0 = pandacoin

+7.4 = notlist3d
+7.5 = wpt1wpt1
+7.6
+7.7 = ezeminer
+7.8
+7.9 = togesix
+8.0 = EternalWingsofGod
+8.1 = zebedee
+8.2 = Amph
+8.3
+8.4 = Questor
+8.5
+8.6 = flikflak
+8.7 = indiemax
+8.8 = Lituation
+8.9= VirosaGITS
+9.0
+9.1= GreatNorthData  you are very welcome.
+9.2 =Zz

+9.6 = jonnybravo0311
+9.7 = d57heinz
+9.8 = Kexkey

+11.2 = SwordsofFreedom

+12.2 = 64dimensions

and  pick up  and over as high as you want to pick
or down as low as you want to pick

I tightened up the list  you can still pick any one not picked  by ranges of .1

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (+8.28%)
Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   71,298,596,219 (+8.28%)
Adjust time:   After 906 Blocks, About 5.8 days
Hashrate(?):   525,519,626 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.2 minutes
3 blocks: 27.6 minutes
6 blocks: 55.2 minutes
Updated:   8:10 (7.4 minutes ago)


picks will close soon  about 10-14 hours

+6.3 = Last of the V8s

Estimated Next Difficulty:    71,085,201,494 (+7.95%)
Adjust time:    After 928 Blocks, About 6.0 days

we live in hope

it will not reach even 5 % i think, my prediction already was 2%, but it might be a little more.