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Topic: Diff thread Nov 11 to Nov 24 Set up stage-picks are now closed! - page 4. (Read 8432 times)

legendary
Activity: 3654
Merit: 8909
https://bpip.org
Yes I agree we are making more now then in the past but if the price doesn't keep rising then we will end up making less.

The other problem is that it's not so easy to upgrade now because hardware is so overpriced. 1+ BTC per TH/s - nearly the same as it was a year ago, I paid ~2.5 BTC for an S4 back then. The S7 (or the Avalon) has ~1/3 of the power consumption of the S4 but even with that in mind the end result still is: I'm going to mine less BTC per each BTC spent on hardware that I did a year ago, which means that hardware would need to last longer to ROI, which seems unlikely with faster rising diff and halving.


This is part of why I like keeping some of my holdings in gear.  It by far is not a sure thing, but I enjoy it.  And it's been good to me over the years.

But S4's looking back were a really good deal.  I mined with mine for a LONG time through summer even, they were part of reason I got a mining area.  But after all that mining they hold a amazing amount of their value still.  So those who had S4's (if decent electricity) have done well I think.  And selling it eventually is the cherry on-top.

Yep. Also SP20 at $500 last December. I sold the last few just recently... for $500 each  Grin

Somehow I doubt I'll get $1500 or 4 BTC or anything close to that for the S7 or the Avalon6 a year from now.
legendary
Activity: 1456
Merit: 1000
Yes I agree we are making more now then in the past but if the price doesn't keep rising then we will end up making less.

The other problem is that it's not so easy to upgrade now because hardware is so overpriced. 1+ BTC per TH/s - nearly the same as it was a year ago, I paid ~2.5 BTC for an S4 back then. The S7 (or the Avalon) has ~1/3 of the power consumption of the S4 but even with that in mind the end result still is: I'm going to mine less BTC per each BTC spent on hardware that I did a year ago, which means that hardware would need to last longer to ROI, which seems unlikely with faster rising diff and halving.


This is part of why I like keeping some of my holdings in gear.  It by far is not a sure thing, but I enjoy it.  And it's been good to me over the years.

But S4's looking back were a really good deal.  I mined with mine for a LONG time through summer even, they were part of reason I got a mining area.  But after all that mining they hold a amazing amount of their value still.  So those who had S4's (if decent electricity) have done well I think.  And selling it eventually is the cherry on-top.
legendary
Activity: 3654
Merit: 8909
https://bpip.org
Yes I agree we are making more now then in the past but if the price doesn't keep rising then we will end up making less.

The other problem is that it's not so easy to upgrade now because hardware is so overpriced. 1+ BTC per TH/s - nearly the same as it was a year ago, I paid ~2.5 BTC for an S4 back then. The S7 (or the Avalon) has ~1/3 of the power consumption of the S4 but even with that in mind the end result still is: I'm going to mine less BTC per each BTC spent on hardware than I did a year ago, which means that hardware would need to last longer to ROI, which seems unlikely with faster rising diff and halving.
legendary
Activity: 3808
Merit: 1723
A month ago we had:

$250 per coin
~60 billion diff

Now we have:

$320 per coin (28% increase)
soon ~73 billion diff (21% increase)

So in terms of mining revenue the change is still positive. Ironically though, the more outdated your gear the greater the impact has been (not accounting for higher density of newer equipment of course).

For example if you were spending $200 of each mined coin on electricity in October your net income was ~0.2 BTC or $50. Adjusted for price and difficulty next week it would be ~0.25 BTC or $80 (approx +25% and +60%).

If you we spending $50 of each mined coin on electricity in October your net income was ~0.8 BTC or $200. Adjusted for price and difficulty next week it would be ~0.81 BTC or $260  (approx +0% and +30%).

This won't last I think. Diff will catch up and pass the 28% due to the more efficient gear flooding the market. But we can still hope the halving will shake the price up again.

Yes I agree we are making more now then in the past but if the price doesn't keep rising then we will end up making less.

legendary
Activity: 3654
Merit: 8909
https://bpip.org
A month ago we had:

$250 per coin
~60 billion diff

Now we have:

$320 per coin (28% increase)
soon ~73 billion diff (21% increase)

So in terms of mining revenue the change is still positive. Ironically though, the more outdated your gear the greater the impact has been (not accounting for higher density of newer equipment of course).

For example if you were spending $200 of each mined coin on electricity in October your net income was ~0.2 BTC or $50. Adjusted for price and difficulty next week it would be ~0.25 BTC or $80 (approx +25% and +60%).

If you we spending $50 of each mined coin on electricity in October your net income was ~0.8 BTC or $200. Adjusted for price and difficulty next week it would be ~0.81 BTC or $260  (approx +0% and +30%).

This won't last I think. Diff will catch up and pass the 28% due to the more efficient gear flooding the market. But we can still hope the halving will shake the price up again.
legendary
Activity: 4172
Merit: 8075
'The right to privacy matters'
abandon ship! difficulty is going to explode !

well it looks like it will keep moving up  and up.


it needs to be 78.68 to match the price jump we had since sept 4

235 to 325 = 1.3829


56.9 to 78.68 = 1.3829


so after tomorrow the diff would be close to even out.

of course we need to do numbers for the s-7 and the avalon 6 and winter.

  so  the 78.68 still seems too low .

@d57heinz  maybe I failed to understand your style of writing and projected a wrong interpretation of what you meant.

I think we both agree difficulty will continue to rise. We may disagree how fast or what it really should be.
legendary
Activity: 1120
Merit: 1001
abandon ship! difficulty is going to explode !
legendary
Activity: 4172
Merit: 8075
'The right to privacy matters'
Alright lets not argue. You are correct in saying you can't take the variance in difficulty especially in small time frames. I shouldn't of posted that 66% gain in difficulty taken 3 hours after the day started.

Currently for the day we are at 123 blocks and it should of been 99 block so . Today is looking again like a 24% day

yes i agree today looks bad. this entire adjustment looks bad. it looks to be over ten percent for sure.

i will also guess a second bad jump since even at 72 - 75 diff we have not caught up to the price gains we made since sept 4 .

maybe we don't stop until we reach 92 but 92 is still off on the horizon for now.

my next goal is review the avalon 6 and compare it to the s-7
legendary
Activity: 3808
Merit: 1723
Alright lets not argue. You are correct in saying you can't take the variance in difficulty especially in small time frames. I shouldn't of posted that 66% gain in difficulty taken 3 hours after the day started.

Currently for the day we are at 123 blocks and it should of been 99 block so . Today is looking again like a 24% day
legendary
Activity: 4172
Merit: 8075
'The right to privacy matters'
http://www.coindesk.com/bitfury-completion-16nm-bitcoin-mining-asic/

Little reminder for all of you .  thinking it will level off lmao

hey don't be insulted  it is not about predicting that 92 diff is happening or that 150 diff will happen.

Both may happen down the road.

 you are writing like  92 bill diff  is happening in 1 day it is not.

And  72 bill diff is to happen in a day .


sept  4 diff was 56 bill

sept 4 price was 230

so 56 to 72 = 28%  diff

  235 to 325 = 38%  price jump

So if you stood pat with an s-5   from sept 4 until now  you had 2 ½ good mining months.

If you switched to S-7 in early sept  and sold your s-5's when price spiked to 490-510  you also whaled.

The sky has not fallen.   And diff will level off again


so let me get this straight. i wasnt saying the diff was where it was.. im working in 24 hour time frames and talking about what the current net hashrate is at the time i posted, which the swings we been having on the 24 hour isnt variance. but ok we agree to disagree.. but you tell me not to be insulted while you insult me.. how can i not be insulted...how about quit selling for bitmain as your opinions are obviously biased as hell.... but anyway im talking about the 24 hour time frame  if you look here you can see it moving in big ways.. but im done here you insulted me for the one and only time.. Good luck with your thread.  and by the looks of the list i think i have a good grip on whats going on.. just sorry that you all are on the philipma train with blinders on.  
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png
watch the blue line
Best Regards
d57heinz

you are in too small of a space is what I am saying.  and your writing style projects a small timeline  into a big one.

92 bill is not happening anytime soon.


Net Hashrate

664,821.06 TH/s  

and when the network gets that speed we will be at 92,874,428,825.17302000 diff

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png
Best Regards
d57heinz



Tell you what  that number won't be true

 92 bill  until end of Jan 2016 or later.

   If price stays stable by stable if price is under 375.


legendary
Activity: 1453
Merit: 1011
Bitcoin Talks Bullshit Walks
http://www.coindesk.com/bitfury-completion-16nm-bitcoin-mining-asic/

Little reminder for all of you .  thinking it will level off lmao

hey don't be insulted  it is not about predicting that 92 diff is happening or that 150 diff will happen.

Both may happen down the road.

 you are writing like  92 bill diff  is happening in 1 day it is not.

And  72 bill diff is to happen in a day .


sept  4 diff was 56 bill

sept 4 price was 230

so 56 to 72 = 28%  diff

  235 to 325 = 38%  price jump

So if you stood pat with an s-5   from sept 4 until now  you had 2 ½ good mining months.

If you switched to S-7 in early sept  and sold your s-5's when price spiked to 490-510  you also whaled.

The sky has not fallen.   And diff will level off again


so let me get this straight. i wasnt saying the diff was where it was.. im working in 24 hour time frames and talking about what the current net hashrate is at the time i posted, which the swings we been having on the 24 hour isnt variance. but ok we agree to disagree.. but you tell me not to be insulted while you insult me.. how can i not be insulted...how about quit selling for bitmain as your opinions are obviously biased as hell.... but anyway im talking about the 24 hour time frame  if you look here you can see it moving in big ways.. but im done here you insulted me for the one and only time.. Good luck with your thread.  and by the looks of the list i think i have a good grip on whats going on.. just sorry that you all are on the philipma train with blinders on.  
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png
watch the blue line
Best Regards
d57heinz
legendary
Activity: 4172
Merit: 8075
'The right to privacy matters'
http://www.coindesk.com/bitfury-completion-16nm-bitcoin-mining-asic/

Little reminder for all of you .  thinking it will level off lmao

hey don't be insulted  it is not about predicting that 92 diff is happening or that 150 diff will happen.

Both may happen down the road.

 you are writing like  92 bill diff  is happening in 1 day it is not.

And  72 bill diff is to happen in a day .


sept  4 diff was 56 bill

sept 4 price was 230

so 56 to 72 = 28%  diff

  235 to 325 = 38%  price jump

So if you stood pat with an s-5   from sept 4 until now  you had 2 ½ good mining months.

If you switched to S-7 in early sept  and sold your s-5's when price spiked to 490-510  you also whaled.

The sky has not fallen.   And diff will level off again
legendary
Activity: 1453
Merit: 1011
Bitcoin Talks Bullshit Walks
http://www.coindesk.com/bitfury-completion-16nm-bitcoin-mining-asic/

Little reminder for all of you .  thinking it will level off lmao

ohh and this is a speculation thread.... But i can prove everything i said with charts and numbers.. so to flat out basically cal me a liar is rather bold of you to say the least not to mention not very good community liaison if you ask me. Keep sucking bitmain hind tit maybe that will get you somewhere!

Best Regards
Doug
d57heinz
legendary
Activity: 1453
Merit: 1011
Bitcoin Talks Bullshit Walks
I think 20% is considered a good thing.

Right now

384741 (Main Chain)   2015-11-22 03:31:09   Slush   000000000000000001ac0df7bfb9349fd6d8cd7acdea584520d33f8b3ad8d915

384706 (Main Chain)   2015-11-22 00:01:54   F2Pool   00000000000000000bcf3e6f7580c8cddcef9bcc460447fcca368c41c5b2a724

66%

But its much too early in the day.

Net Hashrate

664,821.06 TH/s  

and when the network gets that speed we will be at 92,874,428,825.17302000 diff

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png
Best Regards
d57heinz

fud  and not accurate   you  use short time and state it to be fact. it is a half truth or yellow journalism.


  here is fact as of right now we are +9.5%  and not +41.5%  as you suggest.

we  made 1704  should be 1556   I get  (+9.51%)


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+10.24%)


Don't be a Seriouscoin  dude.




Gotcha.. well if i win this round just keep it!

Best Regards and good luck with your contest
Doug
full member
Activity: 182
Merit: 100
If it's less then 11% I will consider it a win, which it isn't from a mining perspective for me.

Any recommendations for asic co-lo's? I pay 0.085c right now, so I am looking for an exit already. Preferably, a recommendation from established members that have used the co-lo's that have positive ratings.

Thanks in advance!


Ufo

alh
legendary
Activity: 1844
Merit: 1050
Using heavily rounded numbers, if the remaining blocks (until the difficulty adjusts) were to be solved nearly instantly then the difficulty would increase roughly 27%.

Again using heavily rounded numbers, we are about 150 blocks ahead where we would be expected to be if luck remained at 100% and no equipment was ever added nor removed from the network. Based on 11/14 days into this difficulty period (severe rounding is going to make this number inaccurate), we are looking at a roughly 15% increase.

There you go, messing up an exciting story with math and facts.....  Smiley

Yes, it's going to feel like a gut punch, but it's not going to even be 20%.
copper member
Activity: 2926
Merit: 2347
Using heavily rounded numbers, if the remaining blocks (until the difficulty adjusts) were to be solved nearly instantly then the difficulty would increase roughly 27%.

Again using heavily rounded numbers, we are about 150 blocks ahead where we would be expected to be if luck remained at 100% and no equipment was ever added nor removed from the network. Based on 11/14 days into this difficulty period (severe rounding is going to make this number inaccurate), we are looking at a roughly 15% increase.
legendary
Activity: 3654
Merit: 8909
https://bpip.org
I think 20% is considered a good thing.

Right now

384741 (Main Chain)   2015-11-22 03:31:09   Slush   000000000000000001ac0df7bfb9349fd6d8cd7acdea584520d33f8b3ad8d915

384706 (Main Chain)   2015-11-22 00:01:54   F2Pool   00000000000000000bcf3e6f7580c8cddcef9bcc460447fcca368c41c5b2a724

66%

But its much too early in the day.

Net Hashrate

664,821.06 TH/s 

and when the network gets that speed we will be at 92,874,428,825.17302000 diff

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png
Best Regards
d57heinz

Guys you're getting ridiculous. There is a reason diff is adjusted based the average of 2016 blocks. Yes, it's going to be a big one. No, it's not 60% or even 20%, not even close. As an exercise try calculating the possible MAXIMUM diff increase this cycle, i.e. if all remaining blocks were solved instantaneously.
legendary
Activity: 4172
Merit: 8075
'The right to privacy matters'
I think 20% is considered a good thing.

Right now

384741 (Main Chain)   2015-11-22 03:31:09   Slush   000000000000000001ac0df7bfb9349fd6d8cd7acdea584520d33f8b3ad8d915

384706 (Main Chain)   2015-11-22 00:01:54   F2Pool   00000000000000000bcf3e6f7580c8cddcef9bcc460447fcca368c41c5b2a724

66%

But its much too early in the day.

Net Hashrate

664,821.06 TH/s  

and when the network gets that speed we will be at 92,874,428,825.17302000 diff

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png
Best Regards
d57heinz

fud  and not accurate   you  use short time and state it to be fact. it is a half truth or yellow journalism.


  here is fact as of right now we are +9.5%  and not +41.5%  as you suggest.

we  made 1704  should be 1556   I get  (+9.51%)


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+10.24%)


Don't be a Seriouscoin  dude.


legendary
Activity: 1453
Merit: 1011
Bitcoin Talks Bullshit Walks
I think 20% is considered a good thing.

Right now

384741 (Main Chain)   2015-11-22 03:31:09   Slush   000000000000000001ac0df7bfb9349fd6d8cd7acdea584520d33f8b3ad8d915

384706 (Main Chain)   2015-11-22 00:01:54   F2Pool   00000000000000000bcf3e6f7580c8cddcef9bcc460447fcca368c41c5b2a724

66%

But its much too early in the day.

Net Hashrate

664,821.06 TH/s 

and when the network gets that speed we will be at 92,874,428,825.17302000 diff

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png
Best Regards
d57heinz
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