Why would the halving affect the current difficulty?
I understand the efficiency and cold weather but not the halving factor.
Topic: Diff thread Nov 11 to Nov 24 Set up stage-picks are now closed! - page 9. (Read 8571 times)
November 17, 2015, 12:02:01 PM
November 17, 2015, 11:45:30 AM
So a diff between 82.8 to 99.5 could be true by Jan 1 to do this we will do many 5% or more jumps.
I still see the network going flat again once we get to this level of 80-100.
I still see the network going flat again once we get to this level of 80-100.
I really hope that does not happen but it's not looking pretty. I think we will break 10 this time... and I did not ever want to see that high again. I want 5 and under. At 10 will be interesting what a lot do as it's much harder to make a profit in current market with most miners.
Bitwisdom midday:
Bitcoin Difficulty: 65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty: 72,617,129,681 (+10.28%)
Adjust time: After 1013 Blocks, About 6.3 days
Hashrate(?): 530,831,166 GH/s
Still above that 10. Not sure what I should consider a sucess even a 8-9 percent is not a pretty site.
November 17, 2015, 10:39:46 AM
I think this is essentially difficulty trying to catch up with BTC price. We've a significant run up in price, and difficulty is "chasing after price".
I thought the current network size was so large that it was going to virtually impossible to get a 10% increase in difficulty, just because the numbers are so large. Looks like maybe I was wrong.
I am going to wait a bit longer to guess. This going to feel like a brutal increase.
I thought the current network size was so large that it was going to virtually impossible to get a 10% increase in difficulty, just because the numbers are so large. Looks like maybe I was wrong.
I am going to wait a bit longer to guess. This going to feel like a brutal increase.
yeah if you go to sept 4th we were
230usd
diff was 56.9 bill
price now = 335 so diff should be 82.8 bill
now I left 3 factors out:
1)new gear s-5 was .51 watts S-7 is .25 watts
2) cold weather for most miners
3)the ½ ing is coming.
if you think these three blend into a factor of 1.0x then we should go to 82.8 billion
I think the 3 factors are more like 1.2x so 1.2 x 82.8 = 99.5 bill diff
So a diff between 82.8 to 99.5 could be true by Jan 1 to do this we will do many 5% or more jumps.
I still see the network going flat again once we get to this level of 80-100.
November 17, 2015, 10:30:12 AM
picks have started
you can pick lower then me if you dare
-1.2 =
-1.1 = philipma1957
-0.1 =
-0.0 =
0.0 =
+0.1 =
+0.9 =
+1.0 =
+1.1
+1.9
+2.0 = BTCish
+2.1
+2.9
+3.0
+3.1 = RichBC
+3.2 = Tupsu
+3.3 = edonkey
+3.4
+3.9
+4.0 = mavericklm
+4.1 = Biodom
+4.2 = HerbPean
+4.3 = dukeneptun
+4.4
+4.5 = ingiltere
+4.6
+4.7
+4.8 = DanDan
+4.9
+5.0 = adaseb
+5.1
+5.2
+5.3
+5.4 = tss
+5.5
+5.6 = vortexz
+5.7
+5.8
+5.9 = Mikestang
+6.0
+6.1 = cakir
+6.2
+6.3
+6.4
+6.5
+6.6 = wlefever
+6.7 = DanielRo
+6.8
+6.9
+7.0 = pandacoin
+7.1
+7.2
+7.3
+7.4 = notlist3d
+7.5 = wpt1wpt1
+7.6
+7.7 = ezeminer
+7.8
+7.9 = togesix
+8.0
+8.1 = zebedee
+8.2 = Amph
+8.3
+8.4
+8.5
+8.6 = flikflak
+8.7
+8.8 = Lituation
+8.9= VirosaGITS
+9.0
+9.1
+9.2 =Zz
+9.3
+9.4
+9.5
+9.6 = jonnybravo0311
+9.7 = d57heinz
+9.8
+9.9
+10.0
+11.2 = SwordsofFreedom
+12.2 = 64dimensions
and pick up and over as high as you want to pick
or down as low as you want to pick
blockchaininfo still shows a wicked bad one jump
I tightened up the list you can still pick any one not picked . by ranges of .1
November 17, 2015, 10:21:28 AM
I'll go with +9.6. I'm keeping my hopes up it will be under 10% 
November 17, 2015, 08:30:06 AM
+12.2%
November 17, 2015, 07:57:26 AM
+9.2 Zz
Tough call, it would be higher though.
Tough call, it would be higher though.
November 17, 2015, 06:13:15 AM
Good thing i ve sold my s7 at a small profit already!!!
If we get even just a few 10's or close Batch 7 buyers will be off I'm guessing on ROI math will be ineresting to see who hits ROI on batch 7. With it being possibly a month before shipping could be interesting.
I really hoping it is just a spike and will slow down after a few days.
November 17, 2015, 05:03:21 AM
Good thing i ve sold my s7 at a small profit already!!!
legendary
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November 17, 2015, 04:54:27 AM
Pick +11.2% to 11.3 %
That difficulty is something else I'll match it's present state for my call
Bitcoin Difficulty: 65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty: 73,229,045,484 (+11.21%)
Adjust time: After 1050 Blocks, About 6.5 days
That difficulty is something else I'll match it's present state for my call
Bitcoin Difficulty: 65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty: 73,229,045,484 (+11.21%)
Adjust time: After 1050 Blocks, About 6.5 days
November 17, 2015, 04:47:53 AM
+8.6 = flikflak
thanks!
thanks!
November 17, 2015, 02:21:51 AM
I think this is essentially difficulty trying to catch up with BTC price. We've a significant run up in price, and difficulty is "chasing after price".
I thought the current network size was so large that it was going to virtually impossible to get a 10% increase in difficulty, just because the numbers are so large. Looks like maybe I was wrong.
I am going to wait a bit longer to guess. This going to feel like a brutal increase.
I thought the current network size was so large that it was going to virtually impossible to get a 10% increase in difficulty, just because the numbers are so large. Looks like maybe I was wrong.
I am going to wait a bit longer to guess. This going to feel like a brutal increase.
November 17, 2015, 02:00:55 AM
Whenever I check Blockchain, it takes 20-30 minutes to find 6 blocks. If this continues then we won't see a 10% jump, we will see a 100% jump.
Largest diff jump was
Jun 29 2014 16,818,461,371 24.93% 120,391,236 GH/s
There is a good chance this month we will beat that record.
Largest diff jump was
Jun 29 2014 16,818,461,371 24.93% 120,391,236 GH/s
There is a good chance this month we will beat that record.
I think we had 30-40% jumps at the end of 2013.
This current one has been running between 8-12% so far. Half hour or even a day isn't a large enough sample for estimates.
As for who's doing this - check pool stats. I don't have a good source for other pools on hand right now but I know that AntPool has been KILLING it:
https://www.antpool.com/poolStats.htm
November 17, 2015, 01:52:22 AM
Some what glad I didn't pull the trigger on those S7 purchases.
*saved space on image
*saved space on image
Looks like it just keeps going up:
Bitcoin Difficulty: 65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty: 72,639,342,246 (+10.31%)
Adjust time: After 1121 Blocks, About 7.0 days
Hashrate(?): 520,959,894 GH/s
I'm thinking burn in tests on Avalon and Bitmain for sure. If any others are testing I'm still not sure. I don't think it's the SP50 yet. When we do get to that point that is a lot of hash in one unit.
Could get crazy with just a few main makers.
November 17, 2015, 01:29:17 AM
Some what glad I didn't pull the trigger on those S7 purchases.
November 17, 2015, 01:06:08 AM
+9.75 = d57heinz 
currently Net Hashrate
619,439.12 TH/s
was just a bit ago.
Net Hashrate
644,617.18 TH/s
Best Regards
d57heinz
edit my theory on the crazy swings isnt variance.. its large farms getting setup for the ramp up coming at halving.. they will drain the system as new money flows in with all the new hw just waiting to come online.. Just a theory anyway..
currently Net Hashrate
619,439.12 TH/s
was just a bit ago.
Net Hashrate
644,617.18 TH/s
Best Regards
d57heinz
edit my theory on the crazy swings isnt variance.. its large farms getting setup for the ramp up coming at halving.. they will drain the system as new money flows in with all the new hw just waiting to come online.. Just a theory anyway..
I'm keekping an eye on the diff raise since almost 2 years. The current Hastrate is about 520 Peta. I have no idea where you taking your number by it's clearly offset or base on a very short period of time.
If you want a good estimate of the hashrate use this : https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
EDIT: the last 6 block has been found in just under 1 hour ... no where a 30% diff adjustment
EDIT 2: I'm not the first one telling you that you're wrong with your numbers and you keep posting them.
Calculation based on what ? Last 6 block ? 20 ? 100 ?
My point is, you are throwing statement like we just hit 650 Peta. There is no way someone just plugged 250 Peta out of no where. It's like Bitcoinwisdom ... Hashrate(?): 523,032,073 GH/s is the average of the last 504 block (25% of the difficulty)
Yes someone just throw a bunch of hashrate, but no where 650 peta.
November 16, 2015, 11:00:15 PM
okay day 6
http://btc.blockr.io/charts
11-11-2015 169 blocks this is a plus 25 now the first 77 blocks were on the last adjustment So on a part day I guess +14
11-12-2015 158 blocks this is plus 14 total is +28
11-13-2015 161 blocks this is plus 17 total is +45
11-14-2015 146 + 2 +47
11-15-2015 156 is +12 +59
11-16-2015 175 is +31 +90
we are 891 made should be 801 i get (11.23%)
which is a little worse then bitcoinwisdom
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty: 65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty: 72,446,086,826 (+10.02%)
Adjust time: After 1125 Blocks, About 7.1 days
Hashrate(?): 523,126,131 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 9.0 minutes
3 blocks: 27.1 minutes
6 blocks: 54.2 minutes
Updated: 19:35 (5.8 minutes ago)
brutal numbers really high.
November 16, 2015, 10:54:07 PM
Whenever I check Blockchain, it takes 20-30 minutes to find 6 blocks. If this continues then we won't see a 10% jump, we will see a 100% jump.
Largest diff jump was
Jun 29 2014 16,818,461,371 24.93% 120,391,236 GH/s
There is a good chance this month we will beat that record.
Largest diff jump was
Jun 29 2014 16,818,461,371 24.93% 120,391,236 GH/s
There is a good chance this month we will beat that record.
November 16, 2015, 10:45:54 PM
This difficulty is going insanely high. I saw it jump from a predicted 9% to 11% today..
One can hope we don't jump too much, but it might because
One can hope we don't jump too much, but it might because
November 16, 2015, 08:55:06 PM
picks have started
you can pick lower then me if you dare
-1.2 =
-1.1 = philipma1957
-0.1 =
-0.0 =
0.0 =
+0.1 =
+0.9 =
+1.0 =
+1.1
+1.9
+2.0 = BTCish
+2.1
+2.9
+3.0
+3.1 = RichBC
+3.2 = Tupsu
+3.3 = edonkey
+3.4
+3.9
+4.0 = mavericklm
+4.1 = Biodom
+4.2 = HerbPean
+4.3 = dukeneptun
+4.4
+4.5 = ingiltere
+4.6
+4.7
+4.8 = DanDan
+4.9
+5.0 = adaseb
+5.1
+5.2
+5.3
+5.4 = tss
+5.5
+5.6 = vortexz
+5.7
+5.8
+5.9 = Mikestang
+6.0
+6.1 = cakir
+6.2
+6.3
+6.4
+6.5
+6.6 = wlefever
+6.7 = DanielRo
+6.8
+6.9
+7.0 = pandacoin
+7.1
+7.2
+7.3
+7.4 = notlist3d
+7.5 = wpt1wpt1
+7.6
+7.7 = ezeminer
+7.8
+7.9 = togesix
+8.0
+8.1 = zebedee
+8.2 = Amph
+8.3
+8.4
+8.5
+8.6
+8.7
+8.8 = Lituation
+8.9= VirosaGITS
+9.0
+9.1
+9.2
+9.3
+9.4
+9.5
+9.6
+9.7= d57heinz
+9.8
+9.9
+10.0
and pick up and over as high as you want to pick
or down as low as you want to pick
blockchaininfo still shows a wicked bad one jump
I tightened up the list you can still pick any one not picked . by ranges of .1
you can pick lower then me if you dare
-1.2 =
-1.1 = philipma1957
-0.1 =
-0.0 =
0.0 =
+0.1 =
+0.9 =
+1.0 =
+1.1
+1.9
+2.0 = BTCish
+2.1
+2.9
+3.0
+3.1 = RichBC
+3.2 = Tupsu
+3.3 = edonkey
+3.4
+3.9
+4.0 = mavericklm
+4.1 = Biodom
+4.2 = HerbPean
+4.3 = dukeneptun
+4.4
+4.5 = ingiltere
+4.6
+4.7
+4.8 = DanDan
+4.9
+5.0 = adaseb
+5.1
+5.2
+5.3
+5.4 = tss
+5.5
+5.6 = vortexz
+5.7
+5.8
+5.9 = Mikestang
+6.0
+6.1 = cakir
+6.2
+6.3
+6.4
+6.5
+6.6 = wlefever
+6.7 = DanielRo
+6.8
+6.9
+7.0 = pandacoin
+7.1
+7.2
+7.3
+7.4 = notlist3d
+7.5 = wpt1wpt1
+7.6
+7.7 = ezeminer
+7.8
+7.9 = togesix
+8.0
+8.1 = zebedee
+8.2 = Amph
+8.3
+8.4
+8.5
+8.6
+8.7
+8.8 = Lituation
+8.9= VirosaGITS
+9.0
+9.1
+9.2
+9.3
+9.4
+9.5
+9.6
+9.7= d57heinz
+9.8
+9.9
+10.0
and pick up and over as high as you want to pick
or down as low as you want to pick
blockchaininfo still shows a wicked bad one jump
I tightened up the list you can still pick any one not picked . by ranges of .1
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