Topic: Diff thread Nov 11 to Nov 24 Set up stage-picks are now closed! - page 6. (Read 8633 times)
November 20, 2015, 11:14:23 PM
okay day 10
http://btc.blockr.io/charts
11-11-2015 169 blocks this is a plus 25 now the first 77 blocks were on the last adjustment So on a part day I guess +14
11-12-2015 158 blocks this is plus 14 total is +28
11-13-2015 161 blocks this is plus 17 total is +45
11-14-2015 146 + 2 +47
11-15-2015 156 is +12 +59
11-16-2015 172 is +28 +87
11-17-2015 146 is +2 +89 and plus 2 looks nice
11-18-2015 156 is +12 +101
11-19-2015 131 is -13 +88 same drop about the same time last diff adj
11-20-2015 169 blocks or + 25 back up to a very big 113 over.
1525 blocks made should be 1412 which is +8.00%
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (+7.73%)
Bitcoin Difficulty: 65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty: 70,935,427,608 (+7.73%)
Adjust time: After 491 Blocks, About 3.1 days
Hashrate(?): 499,662,832 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 9.2 minutes
3 blocks: 27.6 minutes
6 blocks: 55.3 minutes
Updated: 23:10 (7.0 minutes ago)
my number is higher then bitcoinwisdom's and at 491 blocks we are near 3 days.
November 20, 2015, 09:31:48 PM
good point a lot of older gear turned on and off makes sense too.
I know people at work that turned on old gpu machines when it spiked. I don't see someone sitting on 100ph idling waiting for the market rise, I see a shitload of people see the price spike and go to their attics/basements , dust their old friends off and fire them up. I would lean towards that as the spike to be honest, so I agree with phil.
I bet if the price spikes to $400 with resistance that there will be a huge spike again that lasts longer.
Fun times
Ufo
November 20, 2015, 05:43:40 PM
How hard is it for this to be the reason vs variance? Or better yet both my case example of power on and power off. Plus your idea of variance.
Phil, you'll remember that I was extremely skeptical about the PHashes that were sitting around offline and able to be turned on if the price jumped. I plainly refused to believe there were tens of MWs sitting around that could be switched on, but then we had a quick run up here. (I had figured there would be less than 5M.W
We saw 100PH (on the 3.5 day average) come online very quickly in only eight or nine days. The most efficient equipment, and anything below .7w/gh, was already online, maybe higher. That means we saw a spike of around 70+ MW if you attribute it all to old gear. There was probably a fair bit less due to variance and a lot of new equipment, but that still means 40MW or 50MW of old equipment was thrown back online and now appears to be coming off. Even Bitmain can't crank out 20PH in a week.
I'll admit it, I threw 10kW of old gear on there (1.1w/gh), and actually haven't taken it off yet since it's still above break even for me at this price, although we'll see what difficulty brings.
So, there wasn't a ton of gear ready to just be switched on, but there was plenty of capacity and machines near enough by that people through on a lot of extra online in just a few days.
good point a lot of older gear turned on and off makes sense too.
November 20, 2015, 04:24:12 PM
How hard is it for this to be the reason vs variance? Or better yet both my case example of power on and power off. Plus your idea of variance.
Phil, you'll remember that I was extremely skeptical about the PHashes that were sitting around offline and able to be turned on if the price jumped. I plainly refused to believe there were tens of MWs sitting around that could be switched on, but then we had a quick run up here. (I had figured there would be less than 5M.W
We saw 100PH (on the 3.5 day average) come online very quickly in only eight or nine days. The most efficient equipment, and anything below .7w/gh, was already online, maybe higher. That means we saw a spike of around 70+ MW if you attribute it all to old gear. There was probably a fair bit less due to variance and a lot of new equipment, but that still means 40MW or 50MW of old equipment was thrown back online and now appears to be coming off. Even Bitmain can't crank out 20PH in a week.
I'll admit it, I threw 10kW of old gear on there (1.1w/gh), and actually haven't taken it off yet since it's still above break even for me at this price, although we'll see what difficulty brings.
So, there wasn't a ton of gear ready to just be switched on, but there was plenty of capacity and machines near enough by that people through on a lot of extra online in just a few days.
November 20, 2015, 12:22:08 PM
It's pretty consistent because it is variance. Shutting off miners in order to lower next adjustment will actually make your operations less profitable unless it causes difficulty change going really negative. Only way to make most money is to mine with everything you have without disruptions. Exception is selling the miners to public when the ROI starts to be boring
Nice view of variance can be seen on this chart. It happens over and over again and it's being denied by public over and over again
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png
Not true if government subsidies are involved and if you don't think China's government is involved you could be correct. But if you think China's government is not involved
or that the are not capable of direct power subsidy to bitmaintech or avalon look at this
http://www.businessinsider.com/60-minutes-chinas-ghost-cities-2013-3
there is enough power in the cities above to provide for all the mining equipment in the world.
I can think that 5 guys in five of the cities above shunt power to mines in china for next to 0 cost. the catch is they can not do it 24/7/365
So they cut a deal with an asic builder and the builder has mines that turn on and off.
How hard is it for this to be the reason vs variance? Or better yet both my case example of power on and power off. Plus your idea of variance.
November 20, 2015, 12:03:30 PM
It's pretty consistent to be a coincidence, too. I wonder if the larger mines do this on purpose so that the next adjustment is slightly lower, thereby making their operations a bit more profitable for the next adjustment period. Or is that just a paranoid delusional idea? 
It's pretty consistent because it is variance. Shutting off miners in order to lower next adjustment will actually make your operations less profitable unless it causes difficulty change going really negative. Only way to make most money is to mine with everything you have without disruptions. Exception is selling the miners to public when the ROI starts to be boring
Nice view of variance can be seen on this chart. It happens over and over again and it's being denied by public over and over again
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png
November 20, 2015, 12:00:59 PM
It's pretty consistent to be a coincidence, too. I wonder if the larger mines do this on purpose so that the next adjustment is slightly lower, thereby making their operations a bit more profitable for the next adjustment period. Or is that just a paranoid delusional idea?
I don't know for the operation to shutdown for 3.5-4 day's with a lot of hash that seems like a lot of lost profit. For most operations I think they would just leave it on.
Only way I could see it happening is if it's a maker of miners. If a big one wanted difficulty not to show huge on change as it might effect sales. So they would have a reason if sales of miners go down for some big changes.
But I don't see anyone shutting down honestly for this amount of days to effect difficulty. But I could always be wrong this is speculating.
November 20, 2015, 11:53:09 AM
don't know but today we are up with a strong number.
384485 (Main Chain) 2015-11-20 16:13:14 16 hours and 13 min = 97 blocks
384365 (Main Chain) 2015-11-20 00:10:17
but we did 121 not 97 this is too big not to be a power gear power down gear cause.
it is over 24.7 % but yesterday at 131 vs 144 is -9.02%
that is really not variance that is power on power off. It is a flux of over 120ph
384485 (Main Chain) 2015-11-20 16:13:14 16 hours and 13 min = 97 blocks
384365 (Main Chain) 2015-11-20 00:10:17
but we did 121 not 97 this is too big not to be a power gear power down gear cause.
it is over 24.7 % but yesterday at 131 vs 144 is -9.02%
that is really not variance that is power on power off. It is a flux of over 120ph
November 20, 2015, 11:26:01 AM
It's pretty consistent to be a coincidence, too. I wonder if the larger mines do this on purpose so that the next adjustment is slightly lower, thereby making their operations a bit more profitable for the next adjustment period. Or is that just a paranoid delusional idea?
November 20, 2015, 10:46:09 AM
It's been pretty much the same drop at the end of almost every diff since a few months back ... the last 2-3 days .... we see a big drop in hashrate.
November 19, 2015, 11:11:38 PM
okay day 9
http://btc.blockr.io/charts
11-11-2015 169 blocks this is a plus 25 now the first 77 blocks were on the last adjustment So on a part day I guess +14
11-12-2015 158 blocks this is plus 14 total is +28
11-13-2015 161 blocks this is plus 17 total is +45
11-14-2015 146 + 2 +47
11-15-2015 156 is +12 +59
11-16-2015 172 is +28 +87
11-17-2015 146 is +2 +89 and plus 2 looks nice
11-18-2015 156 is +12 +101
11-19-2015 131 is -13 +88 same drop about the same time last diff adj
1358 blocks made should be 1270 which is +6.92%
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (+7.10)
Bitcoin Difficulty: 65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty: 70,520,828,888 (+7.10%)
Adjust time: After 658 Blocks, About 4.3 days
Hashrate(?): 489,151,772 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 9.3 minutes
3 blocks: 28.1 minutes
6 blocks: 56.1 minutes
Updated:
November 19, 2015, 09:42:08 PM
Price is taking a little of a dive at coinbase right now: 313.55 So loss of value of 21.15 in 24 hours currently.
Hopefully this reverses soon as i don't like watching it dive down. I liked having 330 as new floor.
Hopefully this reverses soon as i don't like watching it dive down. I liked having 330 as new floor.
November 19, 2015, 08:59:49 PM
I just happened to look and currently it's the devil's difficulty: 6.66% 
Hope it continues to trend down, but I doubt it will...
Hope it continues to trend down, but I doubt it will...
well if I look at https://blockchain.info/blocks/1447898154776
384364 (Main Chain)
384229 (Main Chain)
136 made for the 19th and thats a drop
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty has 6.66
Bitcoin Difficulty: 65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty: 70,248,995,057 (+6.68%)
Adjust time: After 675 Blocks, About 4.4 days
Hashrate(?): 483,894,379 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 9.4 minutes
3 blocks: 28.2 minutes
6 blocks: 56.5 minutes
Updated: 20:55 (3.4 minutes ago)
classic signs of diff manipulation maybe . variance maybe.
both most likely
November 19, 2015, 08:00:59 PM
I just happened to look and currently it's the devil's difficulty: 6.66%
Hope it continues to trend down, but I doubt it will...
Hope it continues to trend down, but I doubt it will...
November 19, 2015, 05:21:09 PM
No idea what is going on.
That day there were about 5-6 blocks solved every 10-20 minutes. It looked like 100-200PH/s were added to the network and then poof, gone.
I don't think its variance.
Maybe it was Bitfury/KNC new chips but they ran for about 12 hours and then they failed and shut off.
That day there were about 5-6 blocks solved every 10-20 minutes. It looked like 100-200PH/s were added to the network and then poof, gone.
I don't think its variance.
Maybe it was Bitfury/KNC new chips but they ran for about 12 hours and then they failed and shut off.
well here are some facts.
the s-7 can do .25 watts per gh
a 100mega watt farm is 400ph capable .
my home can do 6.667 kwatts of mining
so 3 guys like me can do 20kwatts in their home
30 guys can do 200 kwatts
300 homes can do 2000 kwatts or 2 megawatts
3000 homes can do 20 megawatts
30,000 homes can do 200 megawatts and if all were using s-7's at .25 watts that would be 800ph. more then our entire network.
SO to think a government could ask a company such as bitmaintech or bitfury or knc to build a big plant /farm with the ability to add 100ph-400ph of hash is not nutty. To think it is up and running on command right now I am not so sure.
But it would not be very costly.
I would think 40 megawatt power plant built by China solely to supply bitmaintech power is not a stretch. I am just not sure of the why of it.
November 19, 2015, 04:26:28 PM
Didn't the difficulty fall back then due to that massive farm fire ?
What fire? Do you have a link?
http://www.coindesk.com/gallery-fire-destroys-thai-bitcoin-mining-facility/
I think the impact of the fire was incorrectly estimated at that time. The news spread at the beginning of November but later it turned out that it happened in 2-3 weeks prior. And the total capacity of that farm appears to have been 4-6 PH/s at most, barely 2% of the the network. Not enough to be distinguished from variance the hashrate charts IMHO. Look at our ~5% swing just over the last few days.
Thanks Suchmoon.
November 19, 2015, 03:06:42 PM
No idea what is going on.
That day there were about 5-6 blocks solved every 10-20 minutes. It looked like 100-200PH/s were added to the network and then poof, gone.
I don't think its variance.
Maybe it was Bitfury/KNC new chips but they ran for about 12 hours and then they failed and shut off.
That day there were about 5-6 blocks solved every 10-20 minutes. It looked like 100-200PH/s were added to the network and then poof, gone.
I don't think its variance.
Maybe it was Bitfury/KNC new chips but they ran for about 12 hours and then they failed and shut off.
November 19, 2015, 02:59:59 PM
Bitwisdom is looking better:
Bitcoin Difficulty: 65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty: 70,269,710,108 (+6.71%)
Adjust time: After 718 Blocks, About 4.7 days
Hashrate(?): 486,238,357 GH/s
But this could be do to some miners that are shipping right now. Even if it is I like not seeing a 10 number up there.
Bitcoin Difficulty: 65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty: 70,269,710,108 (+6.71%)
Adjust time: After 718 Blocks, About 4.7 days
Hashrate(?): 486,238,357 GH/s
But this could be do to some miners that are shipping right now. Even if it is I like not seeing a 10 number up there.
November 19, 2015, 01:55:49 PM
Didn't the difficulty fall back then due to that massive farm fire ?
What fire? Do you have a link?
http://www.coindesk.com/gallery-fire-destroys-thai-bitcoin-mining-facility/
I think the impact of the fire was incorrectly estimated at that time. The news spread at the beginning of November but later it turned out that it happened in 2-3 weeks prior. And the total capacity of that farm appears to have been 4-6 PH/s at most, barely 2% of the the network. Not enough to be distinguished from variance the hashrate charts IMHO. Look at our ~5% swing just over the last few days.
November 19, 2015, 01:32:45 PM
Didn't the difficulty fall back then due to that massive farm fire ?
What fire? Do you have a link?
this was a year ago. a place in South asia.
and if you give me time I could find photos
page 6 of spec threads has a ton of my spec threads all in a row
found it
last nov 2014
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=846810.0;all
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