Topic: Economic Devastation - page 115. (Read 504811 times)

Armstrong also said that coca cola will go to the moon but before that euro goes down against corn, after that us debt goes to venus  

Armstrong had clearly stated it would die down, then the pandemic would rise again in 2017. I am thinking it will be an H?N? influenza strain.

I admit my Ebola could kill half the world and increase the price of Bitcoin theory did not come to fruition. Ah Well, better luck next outbreak I guess.

I admit my Ebola could kill half the world and increase the price of Bitcoin theory did not come to fruition. Ah Well, better luck next outbreak I guess.

No doubt taxes will be higher. But you also have the very real risk of a meltdown of law and order and thus Roth terms will not be honored everything will be taken from you. I truly believe we are heading off the rails entirely (2018ish).

Is this not enough hard evidence for you of what we are up against (make sure you note the image of the SEC letter admitting what was destroyed in the WTC twin towers on 9/11).

Well it is very interesting how the FORECASTER will be shown all around the world. It has appeared to sold-out audiences from Netherlands to Croatia. BUT this United States the land of the free where those in NYC and Washington intimidate others FREELY to get their way to destroy out future. Even distributors from Canada are on board but not a single distributor in the USA will show the film so far. Just astonishing the censorship.

You can see the full schedule as it appears at The Forecaster-Movie.COM. I met with someone from Hollywood. I was told that there is a sort of “self-censorship” in the industry that they are afraid to get behind something the bankers and government do not want the American people to know, read, or see. Even though the film got a good review from Hollywood*, you can count on not a single New York Newspaper will ever say it is worthwhile. The mainstream media is run by the bankers for what major press will ever expose them beyond what is already out there.

The American press in NYC will most DEFINITIVELY tell people NOT to go see the film. For the film to even enter the OSCAR awards consideration, it must be shown 10 times in NYC and 10 times in LA. If not, it will never be eligible for the competition. NO OTHER CITY COUNTS. Obviously, refusing to show the film in NYC will prevent it from ever being considered for any award. It is a shame for all the people behind the film (since it is a documentary I am not eligible for any award at all. It is all about the makers not the participants).
Why should we expect anything different when not ONE New York Newspaper would ever report that Federal Judges change the words spoken in court even with a published appellate decision admitting the practice is “unique” to New York City. I even wrote a letter to the SEC and said let’s just get this over with since you people make up transcripts anyhow, just go ahead and claim I said whatever it is you want. Nothing is real in NYC – it’s all a sham. The total lack of integrity in the mainstream press dominated by NYC threatens the nation as a whole for with all the finger-pointing at Putin, can the USA really pretend to be that different? They say Putin killed his opposition. Well, we also imprison or kill ours and scheme to silence them at every possible moment.

So far, Americans will NOT be allowed to see the film. Just unbelievable! So who do we thank? GS or the Government or is it both in union?

Edit: http://www.nestmann.com/why-the-feds-wont-confiscate-your-retirement-plan-but-they-will-do-this

It seems to me, since the Roth IRA funds have already been taxed they are at less risk as compared to traditional IRAs which haven't been taxed yet.

The only shelter will be tangible assets for long-term capital. Forget buying and selling. They will take 50% of that very soon. The strategy is to realize we are looking at the collapse of government by implosion as has been the case with every major core economy in history. So hang on – this will be an interesting ride.

The United States has no collective control over production and distribution.  The government is completely captured and under the control of a very narrow group of private interests.  Anyone can see that.


Using this definition, a feudal system is socialism!

QUESTION: ... Usually these people only talk about P/E, Debt to GDP etc etc however this time cycles were mentioned and how everything was revolving around 8+ years, boom and bust!! I have been attending these meetings for over 8 years and not once has a bicycle been mentioned let alone a cycle.

I was speechless and these so called economists started to talk about the EU and the USA. The error they made was they said the USA would rally along with Germany(DAX) into 2017! It was just one day later when you released your post on how the USA may rally into 2017 but Germany(Dax) may top in 2015.75(ecm). I laughed to myself when I read your post as clearly these fools read your blog and then try their very best to somehow pass it off as their own work.
I think that the DAX topping in 2015.75 and the USA markets rally for a further 18 months or so is something that has caught everyone by surprise ...

ANSWER: ... The divergence was rather significant. They closed the US stock market in July 1914 at the start of the war assuming stocks would collapse. They were under pressure to open the market and you can see there was the initial panic selling that formed the low. The US share market rallied from there on during the war. Capital fled to the USA and this created the huge divergence.

If we see the DAX form a high here in 2015 and it FAILS to press higher following the USA, this would be indicative of war. This is my concern given our Energy Model showing a spike high in the DAX but not the USA.

Black Swans, by definition, cannot be predicted.

Yogi Berra himself said that we could not predict the future, especially because it has not happened yet...

There are too many factors even for Armstrong's supercomputer(s) to deal with.  If M.A. could predict the future with anything much better than average, he would be VERY RICH...

I have been forced to come out in front of the curtain. I can retire and go off to some island and wait it out until I die. But I too have family and what kind of a future they face because of all this nonsense does not let me sleep beyond 3 hours at night. What I have been put through was for a reason and those who try to ignore me are only exposing their own lack of integrity or bias. I really do not care what they think of me. It means nothing to me. I just consider the source. They will one day wake up and see while they are fighting with their own egos, they risk losing all liberty because the real battle is not with me, it is the man with the tanks and guns. That will start to become very clear in 2014. All they are interested in is filling their pockets and forgetting they are playing with the risk of war and a Dark Age unless we steer this ship through the treacherous waters ahead.

When I wrote the Global Market Watch, which is a pattern recognition AI model, I allowed the computer to explore on its own and report back to me the results. This REQUIRED tons of data. It cannot be achieve on databases only back 50 years. You need hundreds of years so the computer can learn form every instance. It is calculating patterns with unbelievable complexity of variables.

All of this said, the key to any model is the UNDERSTANDING of its functionality. So what you are doing may not be able to achieve what our system does, but you are on the road to knowledge and that leads to CONFIDENCE in your decision.

When this model has made some of its most outstanding calls at the most extreme points in a panic, it is hard to retain that CONFIDENCE to do what it says. At the collapse of the markets in 1998, the New Yorker Magazine reported that I covered my shorts announcing that to our trading room and walked out and went to the beach. Some read that as arrogant or rejoicing I made more money than anyone in the shortest amount of time. In truth, it was discipline. It was knowing that my inner self was saying are your crazy? Over time, I came to realize when the computer would put out a forecast and it could make me say OMG is this crazy, it was 100% spot on. For if it could invoke that emotion within me, it must be devastating the majority in which case it was ripe for the change.

So NEVER give up on your quest to understand. That is what life is all about. Trying to use fundamentals to forecast is hopeless. A good trader uses them in the opposite manner – buy the rumor and sell the news of the fundamental. This model and watching how it functions has taught me a lot. Plus having clients everywhere has forced me to open my eyes and see the world through everyone’s perspective.

Top-down systems are inherently fragile because they overcommit to egregious error (link to Taleb's simplest summary of the math).

As I said you are a socialist pig

...

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/03/02/consumer-credit-moving-higher-into-2015-75/

Student loan debt stood at $660 billion when Obama was sworn into office in 2009. The official reported default rate was 7.9%. Obama and his administration took complete control of the student loan market shortly after his inauguration. They have since handed out a staggering $500 billion of new loans (a 76% increase), and the official reported default rate has soared by 43% to 11.3%. Of course, the true default rate is much higher. The level of mal-investment and utter stupidity is astounding, even for the Federal government. Just some basic unequivocal facts can prove my case.

There were 1.67 million Class of 2014 students who took the SAT. Only 42.6% of those students met the minimum threshold of predicted success in college (a B minus average). That amounts to 711,000 high school seniors intellectually capable of succeeding in college. This level has been consistent for years. So over the last five years only 3.5 million high school seniors should have entered college based on their intellectual ability to succeed. Instead, undergraduate college enrollment stands at 19.5 million. Colleges in the U.S. are admitting approximately 4.5 million more students per year than are capable of earning a degree. This waste of time and money can be laid at the feet of the Federal government. Obama and his minions believe everyone deserves a college degree, even if they aren’t intellectually capable of earning it, because it’s only fair. No teenager left behind, without un-payable debt.

Yellen, Draghi, and Kuroda speak as if they know what they are doing, perform confidently when on stage, but continue to act in desperate manner five years into a supposed economic recovery. The emergency measures they continue to employ and expand upon reveal their angst and inability to implement a monetary solution. Their only tool is the printing press and when confidence in their infallibility dissipates, the system will fail. The stench of fraud, cronyism, corruption, and hypocrisy of the moneyed interests permeates our degraded culture of materialism, greed and criminality. The party was fun while it lasted, but it is reaching its sordid drunken climax in the near future. There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of this Federal Reserve created boom.

If prices had fallen to the $100,000 to $150,000 level, based on the historical correlation, first time home buyers would be buying hand over foot. But the Federal Reserve, their Wall Street owners, connected hedge funds, and the Federal government has created an artificial price bubble with 0% interest rates and trillions of QE heroin. The 1% can still afford to buy overpriced McMansions, but the young are left saddled with student loan debt, low paying service jobs, and no chance at ever owning a home.

I edited my prior post. There is no doubt that Europe will be in severe crisis by 2017. If you can't hedge the decline in the value of the house, then don't dare do it unless you are sure you can sustain a multi-year (probably decades) waiting period for the value to come back up again (and that your income to pay the mortgage can't be in jeopardy when Europe collapses starting next year). That is what the Armstrong link I gave you said.

Right now the strongest economies of Europe are receiving an influx of capital because capital is fleeing the peripheral economies of the world which are already collapsing. But this contagion will spread to the core of Europe next year. Germany's DAX will peak Oct. 2015, then collapse into an abyss. Then capital will flee to the USA. Then the USA dollar and stock markets will peak in 2017, and then we collapse into war by 2017 or 2018.

I still would be diversified...  NO ONE[except Armstrong's computer model] can predict the future.

Cyclical Symmetry

I have written before how strange symmetry seems to unfold with the names like the last Roman Emperor having the founder Romulus and the first Emperor Augustus. The same in Byzantium and even the forecasts for Popes. I have explained that it made perfect sense that the first Sovereign Default should be Greece for that is where Western Civilization began. Athens was the first Financial Capital of the World in the West taking that from the Persians.

The first banking failure in 1931 that set in motion the Great Depression took place in Austria. It was the failure of Credit Anstalt, which was partly owned by the Rothschilds, that set off the banking panic.

Well now, the first European bank collapse is also in Austria. The creditor participation in the Austrian Heta bank could mean up to 50% loss for the holders of bonds. The biggest problem of the Austrian model lies in the great temptation for states to abuse their extensive rights and thereby do great harm together with buyers of bonds.

As always, where it begins, it strangely ends. I really cannot explain this one. It is merely an observation.

Consumer Credit Moving Higher into 2015.75

Subprime consumer borrowing — encompassing auto loans, credit card loans and personal loans — climbed to $189 billion in the first 11 months last year, the highest total since 2007, according to a study compiled for The Wall Street Journal by Equifax. This is precisely what I mean about living with the cycle. People will spend when they SEE everyone else spending. This provides the foundation to consumer confidence. This is why the rich are important. If they are driving around in flashy cars and going out to dinner, not only are they spending, they are creating the impression everything is OK and this becomes the contagion that spreads as consumer confidence. If they spend nothing and save, the rest of society will follow. It is an interesting leadership role.

This is right on time. We should see the peak in debt on a private level whereas when the economy turns down [after 2015.75], governments will be desperately trying to borrow more and more.

Government spending is around 40% of GDP and that number will only climb with time.