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Topic: Economic Devastation - page 123. (Read 504811 times)

full member
Activity: 420
Merit: 117
February 10, 2015, 07:44:48 AM
legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1055
February 10, 2015, 03:06:10 AM
Singapore Prime Minister Lee gave a speach about health care today.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/4-shifts-in-singapore-s/1648186.html

Compare his speech to one given by president Obama in 2009. Its fairly clear which of these societies is in trouble just from the content of these speeches.

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said in a speech at the Universal Health Coverage Ministerial Meeting.
Quote
"We know there will be political pressure to defer necessary fee increases and to manage the services. And it's easy to leave bills to the next generation and focus on the short-term political gain," he said. "If we succumb to this temptation, we will end up with system which becomes non-viable, and will hurt Singaporeans not just financially, but even purely in health terms."

He added that Singapore's healthcare efforts depend on "a supportive political environment", with people willing to take personal responsibility to save for their own healthcare and participate in a universal medical insurance scheme, healthcare providers ensuring that they deliver cost-effective care, and the Government adopting a people-centred approach while staying hard-headed about costs.

"(The Government must) be a trustworthy steward, presenting the trade-offs as they are to the citizens and not sacrifice tomorrow for today’s political gain," said Mr Lee.

"Healthcare is always an emotional and political issue – it's tempting to make promises and say we will do more, we will do better and it will cost less."

He added that every dollar that the Government spends on healthcare is a dollar taken from taxpayers : "This requires an honest conversation among ourselves, and hard choices made, so that we can move ahead together, with clarity on what our society wants and stands for."

Compare this to President Obama talking about health care in 2009
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-obamas-health-care-speech/

President Obama's address to a joint session of Congress on Sept. 9, 2009
Quote
Here are the details that every American needs to know about this plan. First, if you are among the hundreds of millions of Americans who already have health insurance through your job, or Medicare, or Medicaid, or the VA, nothing in this plan will require you or your employer to change the coverage or the doctor you have. (Applause.) Let me repeat this: Nothing in our plan requires you to change what you have.

What this plan will do is make the insurance you have work better for you. Under this plan, it will be against the law for insurance companies to deny you coverage because of a preexisting condition. (Applause.) As soon as I sign this bill, it will be against the law for insurance companies to drop your coverage when you get sick or water it down when you need it the most. (Applause.) They will no longer be able to place some arbitrary cap on the amount of coverage you can receive in a given year or in a lifetime. (Applause.) We will place a limit on how much you can be charged for out-of-pocket expenses, because in the United States of America, no one should go broke because they get sick. (Applause.) And insurance companies will be required to cover, with no extra charge, routine checkups and preventive care, like mammograms and colonoscopies -- (applause) -- because there's no reason we shouldn't be catching diseases like breast cancer and colon cancer before they get worse. That makes sense, it saves money, and it saves lives. (Applause.)

Now, that's what Americans who have health insurance can expect from this plan -- more security and more stability.

Now, if you're one of the tens of millions of Americans who don't currently have health insurance, the second part of this plan will finally offer you quality, affordable choices. (Applause.) If you lose your job or you change your job, you'll be able to get coverage. If you strike out on your own and start a small business, you'll be able to get coverage.

Now...  there may be those -- especially the young and the healthy -- who still want to take the risk and go without coverage... The problem is, such irresponsible behavior costs all the rest of us money.... unless everybody does their part, many of the insurance reforms we seek -- especially requiring insurance companies to cover preexisting conditions -- just can't be achieved.
full member
Activity: 420
Merit: 117
February 09, 2015, 09:00:37 PM
The worst possible citizenship to have now is USA, because the USA has the strongest government, military, and a large tax base to expropriate. If you have this citizenship, try to get out of it while you still can. Europe at least doesn't tax its citizens who reside abroad. Europe may collapse into the night without hunting its citizens abroad and its has a withering tax base unable to fund a military, but the USA is going to be hunting its citizens even with unseen stealth drones from the air.

While you do make a good point, however; IMO this doesn't pertain to the majority of Americans. The mean household income in the States was $60,528 (Census Bureau 2004). Taxation on foreign income doesn't apply to anything less than $90K. On top of that, you can contribute to a Roth IRA, get child tax credits, etc. to keep your income below $90K.

Europe and America have two different financial systems which make them incomparable with regards to how they tax their citizens, fund their military, etc. While many may argue against paying taxes on Foreign Earned Income, it could be worse if the law weren't in place. It protects from double taxation. Places like Germany have taxes up to 60%.

U.S. workers in Germany for instance: If the U.S. didn't have these laws, a U.S. citizen could be taxed 60% on German-earned income and then up to 25% on that German-earned income by the U.S. With the law, there is a subtraction before taxation.

The people you should direct your comment to are in the top of America (10%) and working abroad. Corporations who make a mint working abroad where prices are lower are not happy.
legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1055
February 09, 2015, 07:56:05 PM
China is not entirely a false economy. They are the manufacturer for the entire world, and their people have gained much knowledge. The white Chinese are very erudite. China is transitioning from a top-down to a bottom-up economy. These debt excesses exist in the top-down economy which eventually is going away (along with the Communist Party).

I would not look to China for leadership in Asia. Lots of factors there including corruption massive malinvestment and the communist party itself that will slow China down.

Instead look at Singapore. There you have something quite interesting happening. A country that welcomes foreign immigration has low taxation and has a somewhat sustainable medical system. It is also technically a democracy (although a very limited one).

In a world where governments are smothering their populaces with unsustainable handouts while allowing their wealth to be stolen via fractional monetary dilution Singapore's citizens are forced to operate at a substantial if transient handicap. Perhaps that's part of the reason it has the lowest birthrate in the world 0.8 children per couple. The entire country is a competitive pressure cooker. What survives and emerges from that pressure cooker may amaze the world. It of all countries strikes me as perhaps the best positioned for the future.  

The worst possible citizenship to have now is USA, because the USA has the strongest government, military, and a large tax base to expropriate. If you have this citizenship, try to get out of it while you still can. Europe at least doesn't tax its citizens who reside abroad. Europe may collapse into the night without hunting its citizens abroad and its has a withering tax base unable to fund a military, but the USA is going to be hunting its citizens even with unseen stealth drones from the air.

An interesting assertion. The US is likely to be a safe haven for at least a little while if/when Japan and Europe turn south. I agree that the trend appears to be leaning towards increased tracking of US citizens abroad and discouraging them from renouncing their citizenship while taxing them on foreign earnings. If you are a high net worth individual or you have a breakthrough business idea I see the argument. However for the average Jo I do not see the advantage.

sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 254
February 09, 2015, 09:26:09 AM
...
The worst possible citizenship to have now is USA, because the USA has the strongest government, military, and a large tax base to expropriate. If you have this citizenship, try to get out of it while you still can. ...

Yup, it's getting harder and harder to get exit visas tho.
I watch the ragtag flocks of middle management trying to flee US, and my heart breaks.  Any way they can, anywhere.
Across the Rio Grande and into the Mexican promised land--in yachts, decrepit private jets, second-hand asshole Ferraris and aging Bugatti Veyrons...
Only to be turned away by ever-watchful Mexican border patrol Cry

member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
February 09, 2015, 01:26:01 AM
China is not entirely a false economy. They are the manufacturer for the entire world, and their people have gained much knowledge. The white Chinese are very erudite. China is transitioning from a top-down to a bottom-up economy. These debt excesses exist in the top-down economy which eventually is going away (along with the Communist Party). The government is still very small % of GDP as compared to the West (e.g. 25% in China, 15% in the Philippines, versus 50 - 75% in the West). But it will require until 2032 to complete the transition and for Singapore and Shanghai to replace London and New York (respectively) as the financial capitals of the world.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2944974/How-s-magic-kingdom-Stunning-shots-Disney-s-theme-park-construction-Shanghai.html

The West is at the stage of peaking government and the world is moving towards the bottom-up economy. Note the social capital that Asia has compared to the West, which I enumerated in my prior post. The USA is inundated with blacks and Latinos (Filipinos and other non-white cultures) which lack self-discipline and are not erudite. Even most or many of the whites are copying the gang banger, low-life culture. For example, note the high percentage of youth in the USA that do some drugs, or that smoke in Europe. The high quality social capital in the West will be hunted down by these parasites via the socialism.

The USA is closing the door and throwing away the key:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/02/06/tsa-to-arrest-anyone-charged-with-any-crime-trying-to-come-or-leave-including-taxes/

Russia has wisely aligned towards Asia (USA is failng as Athens did by alienating it's allies and forcing all to align with Sparta):

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/02/06/putin-seeks-to-divide-conquer/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/02/06/eastern-ukraine-to-fall-to-russia-sanctions-failed/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/02/09/kerry-exposed-as-a-liar/

The worst possible citizenship to have now is USA, because the USA has the strongest government, military, and a large tax base to expropriate. If you have this citizenship, try to get out of it while you still can. Europe at least doesn't tax its citizens who reside abroad. Europe may collapse into the night without hunting its citizens abroad and its has a withering tax base unable to fund a military, but the USA is going to be hunting its citizens even with unseen stealth drones from the air.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/08/21/bradley-manning-leaks_n_3788126.html



Update: I see Armstrong wrote a similar post as mine:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/02/04/optimism-v-pessimisim/
sr. member
Activity: 409
Merit: 252
February 08, 2015, 10:29:08 PM
The more China rises, the more West would need to restructure its Economy. And then Russia is building its new spaceport Vostochny.

The multi-polar world is a beautiful thing! Smiley

China is near collapse.  It has passed the point of no return.  It was all debt driven, real estate investing false economy.  Things are about to get ugly for all global currencies so Bitcoin and cryptos should see massive change and massive adoption.
newbie
Activity: 56
Merit: 0
February 08, 2015, 07:31:37 PM
The more China rises, the more West would need to restructure its Economy. And then Russia is building its new spaceport Vostochny.

The multi-polar world is a beautiful thing! Smiley
member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
February 08, 2015, 05:04:40 PM
Asia is not trapped in the downward spiral of the coming Economic Devastation.

Huge amount of capital of every form here (stored money, strong family values, obedient erudite youth, brand new infrastructure, abundant youth seeking opportunity, low wages, low government liabilities, small governments as a share of GDP, etc).

Asia will hiccup from 2016 to 2020, then booming again.

The West will fall into a spiraling morass because of all the dead weight that will hunt down the remaining capital that hasn't fled.

Anonymity is not as important as providing the opportunities in the new technology economy (for Asia).

I don't see Asians concerned with anonymity because tax rates are already very low, because government is a small % of GDP.
newbie
Activity: 14
Merit: 0
February 01, 2015, 03:27:26 PM

The top fifty countries sorted by the multiple of average fertility multiplied by GDP per capita.
  

Interesting list thanks.  I would call this fertility multiplied by debt.   Not wealth.   

agree multiplied not allowed i think
thats cross
legendary
Activity: 1264
Merit: 1008
February 01, 2015, 02:56:28 PM

The top fifty countries sorted by the multiple of average fertility multiplied by GDP per capita.
  

Interesting list thanks.  I would call this fertility multiplied by debt.   Not wealth.   
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1865
January 31, 2015, 10:59:10 PM
...

GREECE is back in the news again re a possible default in the coming month or so.  Rather than repeat a post, I wrote this item up over at the "huge storm coming" thread:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.10325118

TL;DR version:

This time it might work out very poorly, particularly if it spreads to Spain.
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
January 29, 2015, 03:22:47 AM
one thing i do knwo while theres capital and theres political and social and economy the things will tend to go on to not devastation but yes balance soo it means every dime made will be delivered to each person acording to work and knowleadge and in the case of more capital for some countries then othrers its a politiacal idea democratic issue of free ideas and intelegence and constitution and thecnology
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1865
January 28, 2015, 11:58:59 PM
...

CoinCube!

That is a very interesting list that you compiled.  And you have already recognized some of the limitations and surprises that one might expect (tax haven countries, tiny oil producers, etc.).

+ 1

Ahh, I have no idea how much time you have, but you could extend your List to perhaps include other factors (variables) that might make certain relationships clearer (I just had this thought right now, so can offer no useful advice at the moment).

Note that some of those countries are total dumps, and places like Qatar are unique (I once visited that country, yep, very different).

One possibility (just pops to mind, I have no idea how worthwhile this might be) would be to do fertility times TOTAL GNP.

Another thing to consider would be adding OTHER variables (maybe several or lots) and put them on a big spreadsheet.  Once you have several different variables, it is possible that you might uncover previously unknown relationships (by statistical procedures like Multivariate Analysis and even yummy Factor Analysis or Cluster Analysis...).

*  *  *

I have played around with such statistical tools (using "S-Plus", an old command-line stats program I got along ago) with our company's bearings sales in Peru.  Almost all of the little nuggets of info I got, however, I at least "sort-of" knew.  Still it was worthwhile for me, as I am a major owner of our company down there.  Yes, I did find that certain bearings have correlated sales that were somewhat unexpected, THAT KIND of thing is what I look for...

I do know that every Econ grad student (and their mothers) probably are doing this kind of thing, but you are working an interesting lode of information, maybe you will find something really notable!

Good luck, nice work.
legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1055
January 28, 2015, 11:31:52 PM
I was curious today about what countries have the highest ratio of wealth * fertility.
As a simple measure of prosperity this multiple tells us which countries are both somewhat wealthy and
have a population that is reproducing.

Using median income would have been best but the only data I could find that included all countries was GDP (purchasing power parity) per capita. Source of data was https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/

The top fifty countries sorted by the multiple of average fertility multiplied by GDP per capita.

Ranking    Fertility   Per Capita GDP
1    Qatar      1.92   102100
2    Bermuda      1.95   86000
3    Liechtenstein   1.69   89400
4    Luxembourg   1.77   77900
5    Monaco      1.52   85500
6    Equatorial Guinea   4.66   25700
7    Timor-Leste   5.11   21400
8    Kuwait      2.53   42100
9    United States   2.01   52800
10   Isle of Man   1.94   53800
11   Norway      1.86   55400
12   Brunei      1.82   54800
13   Israel      2.62   36200
14   Jersey      1.66   57000
15   Gabon      4.49   19200
16   Oman      2.86   29800
17   Switzerland   1.54   54800
18   Ireland      2   41300
19   Gibraltar      1.92   43000
20   Macau      0.93   88700
21   Cayman Islands   1.86   43800
22   Greenland   2.06   38400
23   Netherlands   1.78   43300
24   Sweden      1.88   40900
25   Iceland      1.88   40700
26   Australia      1.77   43000
27   New Caledonia   1.99   37700
28   France      2.08   35700
29   Faroe Islands   2.38   30500
30   United Kingdom   1.9   37300
31   United Arab Em      2.36   29900
32   Guernsey      1.55   44600
33   Canada      1.59   43100
34   Guam      2.38   28700
35   Saudi Arabia   2.17   31300
36   Denmark      1.73   37800
37   Bahamas, The   1.97   32000
38   Belgium      1.65   37800
39   New Zealand   2.05   30400
40   Finland      1.73   35900
41   Hong Kong   1.17   52700
42   Austria      1.43   42600
43   Germany      1.43   39500
44   Saint Pierre   1.56   34900
45   Bahrain      1.81   29800
46   British Virgin Isl.    1.25   42300
47   Japan      1.4   37100
48   Andorra      1.38   37200
49   Singapore   0.8   62400
50   Turks and Caicos    1.7   29100

The top of the list is definitly skewed by the tax haven countries which have atypically large GDP's due to the wealth hiding there. Others are skewed by a very high birth rate.  
legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1055
January 23, 2015, 10:18:57 PM
Sometimes the comment section at zerohedge is quite good.

Asset Ownership And Our System Of Deepening Debt-Serfdom

Quote from: Wilcox1
History is clear in the light it sheds on the tendency of human societies to freeze into hierarchical structures and remain that way until the structure fails because it can no longer adapt.
 
This country (America) had the good fortune to come into being about the same time that communication accelerated making it possible for men who rejected serfdom to form a like minded group with an awareness of the conditions necessary to defend against it.
 
They did an elegant job.
 
It wasn't good enough. We again have the inevitable ridgid hierarchical structure.
 
Communications have again accelerated. The time has come for men who cannot live as serfs to recognize that we have come full circle.
 
An awareness is the primary requirement. An aware person acts locally using his convictions as a guide. If we are to be a nation of free men we must believe at the grass roots level that we are not serfs and act accordingly. A true American respects our Founders. A true American also would desire to be respected by our Founders.
legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1055
January 23, 2015, 09:53:02 PM
Dude, you're saying reducing the money supply will lead to lower prices for that currency?  What?

Not at all. I am saying that a decrease in the amount of money in circulation can result one of three outcomes.

Only one of those outcomes is that P the price level of goods and services drops. It's a lot easier to understand once you realize that for the economy as a whole P*T = GDP. If you decrease M and Vt is somehow held constant then GDP drops.

To understand this just look at an extreme examples (things become more clear at the extremes).
Imagine that government suddenly mandated that 50% of everyone's after tax wages and half of all existing liquid currency be invested in 30 year government bonds. Say then then burned or destroyed all of the money used to buy those bonds and made it illegal to trade those bonds in exchange for goods or services.

In this admittedly ridiculous example we would expect all sorts of bad things to happen. One thing that would happen is a drop in the price level P for goods and services in the economy. The shopkeeper would still need to sell his goods to make a living. It would be impossible for him to charge the same or higher prices for his goods overall. People would simply not be able to pay the same prices they did in the past.

Now in this extreme example we would probably also see a big drop in velocity Vt and in the real value of transactions that occurred T as well. The result would be economic collapse. However, if Vt and T are somehow magically held constant the only thing that could happen in response to a drop in the amount of money in circulation is a drop in the price level. That is just basic math.

Obviously having fewer overall units of a desired but limited asset like cryptocurrency will not resulted in lower prices per unit for that asset. That has nothing to do with what I wrote. I simply showed that the quantity theory of money cannot (by itself) justify the claim that excess savings are no big deal because they make everything cheaper.  

Quote from: wikipedia
the equation does not require that a change in the money supply would change the value of any or all of P, Q, or P*Q. For example, a 10% increase in M could be accompanied by a change of 1/(1 + 10%) in V, leaving P*Q unchanged.
 
In the real world we are seeing a massive increase in M with a simultaneous decrease in Vt. The overall effect on GDP or P*T remains in some dispute.
sr. member
Activity: 409
Merit: 252
January 23, 2015, 01:22:35 PM
Excess saving is not a big deal though, it merely changes the value of money according to the QTM, making everythign cheaper for everyone else, both investment and consumer goods.

I agree with much of what you wrote but not this.

By your own logic above excess savings (in excess of what the free market would normally dictate) reduce both investment and consumption. Reductions in both will reduce growth and general prosperity over time and thus I would argue that it is a big deal.

You argument that that QTM somehow negates this seems incomplete.

Quantity Theory of Money
Vt * M = P * T

Vt =  is the velocity of money for all transactions in a given time frame
M = total nominal amount of money in circulation on average in the economy
P = Price level
T = Aggregate real value of transactions in a given time frame.

At its heart QTM is a simple deterministic equation. Obviously if T widgets are sold for P dollars in a day and a total of M dollars changed hands then the amount of times each dollar changed hands is Vt.

However, to argue that excess savings changes the value of money via QTM is flawed or at least incomplete.

If I reduce M because I have saved it by hiding it under a mattress or placed it in cold storage all the QTM dictates is that one of four things will occur.
1) Prices will drop
2) The overall quantity of goods that change hands per unit time will decline
3) Each currency unit in the economy will change hands more often
4) Some combination of 1-3

The QTM does not dictate that excess savings will make things cheaper for everyone else via reduced prices. There are two other outcomes that will satisfy QTM where prices remain unchanged.

 


Dude, you're saying reducing the money supply will lead to lower prices for that currency?  What?

The exact opposite will happen.  That's why doge, in general, is worth much less (per coin) than coins with way less supply.

Price of a currency = transactions volume/velocity + 1/supply

Increase transactions or lower the supply (while keeping velocity the same or lower) and you will get a higher price.
newbie
Activity: 56
Merit: 0
January 19, 2015, 07:30:30 AM


Hey, I know you!

I've been called Lucifer
I've been called Satan
But my name is Richard, and YOU can call me Dick

I've got a job to do
I work at the bank
I foreclose on delinquent loans
I am the one who can send shivers down the backs of innocent men
I have a job to do, and I do it well
Last week we took the farm of some deadbeat farmer
He killed off all of his cattle before we could auction them off
Let me tell you
That sort of thing really pisses me off


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FAcNdW9eLic

Thanks for introducing yourself Smiley.
Of course you know me!

'Cause I am, whatever you say I am
If I wasn't, then why would I say I am?
In the paper, the news everyday I am
I don't know it's just The Way I Am



Where are you hiding Big Brother? Smiley



The BTCig Love is getting bigger than ever! Cheesy

sr. member
Activity: 409
Merit: 252
January 19, 2015, 02:04:54 AM
The economic devastation has only just begun.

It should climax end of this year - probably end of September!
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