Topic: Erstes richtiges BLUTBAD 2018 – Wo ist der Boden ?! - page 29. (Read 67977 times)

Soo jetzt sind wir unter 4000$ pro BTC.
Mal sehen wie tief es noch runter geht.

keine chance, ich rate jedem den markt zu verlassen bis ende des jahres. evtl. stabilisiert sich der dreck anfang 2019. eine erholung schließe ich für viele monate aus. sowas hatten wir noch NIE (wenn man sich das gesamte jahr anschaut).

ich für meinen teil werde NIE mehr etwas in BTC tauschen. da nehme eher ETH zum cointransfer (börse zu börse).

Ich zitiere mal von der Startseite dieses Fadens  

Ich schätze das nächste Plateau bei etwa $8k USD, mal sehen ob und wie hoch der Bitcoin dann noch steigen wird...

Du bist wirklich ein Laie. In einer Woche kann alles schon wieder ganz anders aussehen, und wir werden im Laufe dieses Jahres sicherlich neue ATHs für die wichtigsten Coins und das Gesamtmarketcap an sich sehen. Crypto ist eine Zukunftstechnologie, die von der Adaption her immernoch im Anfangsstadium steht. Warum sollten also die Cryptomärkte auf 0 fallen? Das tun höchstens einzelne Shitcoins.

Eine komplette Kaffee suderei ist das... das Blutbad wird kommen aber das ist es mmn nicht... bleibe da bei LP Meinung, wenn man richtig Investiert hat ist es eine Korrektu um 10 bis max. 20 % ... Macht euch nicht in die Hosen... bissal noh und ich komme in Kauf Laune

Gut wir sind bei knapp 10k abgeprallt, ich glaube das war es dann mit der etwas schweren Korrektur, jetzt wird sich der Kurs vielleicht noch einmal von 11.5k an die 10k annähern aber drunter wirds meiner Meinung nach nicht gehen, das betrifft alle anderen Coins auch. Das war halt die jährliche Jänner-Gehaltsauszahlung sag ich mal  

In 2 Wochen sehen wir dann die richtig guten Aufstiege 

Soo jetzt sind wir unter 4000$ pro BTC.
Mal sehen wie tief es noch runter geht.

Bitmex sollte doch auch funktioniern oder?
Btw danke für den Artikel :-)

Bitcoin
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Back in December 2017 I did a valuation attempt of Bitcoin on this sub and got around 5K with some grossly optimistic assumptions. Its taken a long time but finally gone down below that.

You've probably heard many people tell you it would eventually happen back in December 2017 and to reduce expose to crypto (including me), but when you're hyped up on 20% gains every week its hard to be cautious or engage in defensive measures. To many the last quarter of 2017 and into early 2018 was like a beach party with coke and Victoria Secret models. Who wants to listen to someone tell you about how you're gonna crash hard with a headache the next morning?

With this latest crash, Bitcoin's price is back to roughly mid October 2017, which is roughly when the mainstream mania started. Many on this sub entered after October 2017 and hence are now left holding heavy bags. Many are down 80% or even 90%.

Is it over yet?

The $6K consolidation was likely a result of the market coiling tighter and tighter around the mining breakeven point for some of the smaller miners. The big firms in China are profitable mining below 6K, but many smaller ones in the US and Europe aren't. You can actually see the total hash rate going down. Once it broke it was a big fall straight down.

Bitcoin is mined at 12.5 BTC. per block at 10 minute blocks, which comes out to around 1800 BTC every day. This 1800 BTC has to be absorbed by every day, which means the following at different price levels:
Price Level   Daily net buying needed to absorb mined coins
6000   $10.8 million/day
4500   $8.1 million/day
3000   $5.4 million/day

So what's a crypto shrimp to do? I'll split my thoughts into two, for those who are still in the green and those in the loss.

If you're still in the green

If you're still in profit, this is a great time to consider how much more downward selling you can take and also how you can hedge downward risk.

If you're someone who purchased when Bitcoin was below $1000, you should calculate your compounded annual ROI and decide if that return is good enough for you. For equities, the long term average is about 10% per year, 20-30% in a good bull market.

Its your decision, but taking out profits that exceed principal and reinvesting the principal is not at all a bad idea. For those who invested before Bitcoin reached $1K (April 2017) the current price is still an insane return that no other asset class can match.

Another important thing is to think about how you can hedge the risk of downward movement. This is where derivative exchanges are very useful, although you do need to do some research on how derivatives work and how to not get liquidated. If you have substantial holdings, the effort to learn this is worth it.

The basic idea is that you can buy short contracts that increase in value as Bitcoin goes down, proportional to the amount of leverage you put to finance the contract. If managed correctly, you can protect your entire stack with a portion as leverage. Its something commonly done by miners, who short Bitcoin with derivatives to hedge their holdings.
If you're in the loss

The untold reality is that HODL is a meme told to newbies to prevent panic selling during a downturn while the smart money cashes out in a more orderly fashion. But does that mean you shouldn't hold if you're already down massively?

Well that depends on your own life situation, how much you've invested, and if you don't need the money for the next few years.

Mathematically, whether it drops to 4.5K or 3K from the reference of 6K is highly meaningful, its a drop of 25% or 50%. But if your reference starting point is much higher, then it really doesn't matter all that much. A drop from 17K to 4.5K is a 74% loss while down to 3K it would be 82%, massive losses either way. In that sense if this is money you don't need, it makes sense to simply have it stored in a wallet and forget about it for a few years. Who cares if it drops further after a certain point if you don't plan to take it out for a while? Its like in equities markets where people with massive losses don't sell, but instead move the loss position into their retirement fund where they don't plan to take it out for a long time and thus are giving it time to rebound back.

But what if its money you need? What if like many out there you took out loans hoping to catch a run to 50K? If you have high interest debt (credit cards...etc), focus on paying that down first. Credit cards generally have high interest and many compound daily, so pay down the debt first rather than trying to pay your debts off with a crypto bull run that may take years to materialize.

This is also a good learning opportunity. It is worrying how few people who hold crypto have a clue what any of this even is or how it works. I've always recommended this video to explain how Bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies) actually work.

A good thing to do during catastrophic losses is to honestly access why you got suckered into buying high in the first place. Most people here are young, and this is a valuable lesson in why you shouldn't follow the herd. Everyone is a genius in a bull market, everyone is chasing the next hype. Crypto tends to attract people looking for a get-rich-quick-without-effort crowd, but it takes some mental effort to understand this beyond the buzzwords. Take the time to understand the fundamental reasons why an asset has value and what factors would drive its rise once the hype dies down. What makes Bitcoin valuable, what makes some of the other cryptoassets valuable? If those fundamentals in some way changes, so should your opinion.

Its also a great opportunity to help in its adoption by using it. The irony of it all is that people demand that they get rich because of the hard work of buying a bunch of crypto in an exchange and transferring it to their wallet, without any understanding what they're buying into.

Also don't be angry. Don't look to blame. Look to learn and improve next time you invest.

er kann mit seinen BSVs machen was er will. wenn er so dahintersteht dann kann er doch den BSV kurs mit seinen ganzen BTCs stützen. und raus wäre er.

aber die ganzen BCH/BSV spinner haben nicht die eier all out aus dem BTC zu gehen und zu 100% in ihre shitcoins zu wechseln.

früher gab es mal den spruch hier: "put your money where your mouth is". wenn einer die grosse fresse hatte konnte er das ganze mit einer konsequenten handlungsweise untermauern. und oft hat man dann nach einer weile nichts mehr von ihnen gehört. poser und sales heinies wie CSW oder Ver wären dann schon längst geschichte. aber darum geht es ihnen nicht. sie wollen stören und fame.

der echte Satoshi war das genaue gegenteil.

Der Tag, an dem sich herausstellt, dass CSW wirklich Satoshi ist/war, ist der Tag, an dem ich für immer ALL OUT gehe

Persönlichkeiten werden überbewertet.

Ich will Dir ja nicht den Abend verderben, aber zumindest hat er im Januar 2009 bereits Bitcoin "geshillt":

Der Tag, an dem sich herausstellt, dass CSW wirklich Satoshi ist/war, ist der Tag, an dem ich für immer ALL OUT gehe

the "real" Bitcoin

toll... zu 100% in BCH ...

Gute Nachrichten, mein Freund Marc de Mesel, der seit Ende 2017 Perma-Bär ist, geht 100% in Crypto zurück ("I think we have seen the bottom"):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OurFxEtDYMY&t=629s