Esports Prediction & Discussion Thread - page 24.

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Quote from: passwordnow on July 09, 2024, 08:51:30 PM

To be honest, I am very tempted to go in a threeway. I've already made my bet for map 1 and this is for the match of Team Spirit and Team Falcon, I went to total of under 44.5 kills. I hope that this is gonna be a good bet for me. I have another bet for a match winner even for bo2, I really can't resist the odds as it has tempted me.

I think this bet has the potential to win since TS line-up can finish the game easily with one wipe out since Morph is already fully stack with core items.

Team Falcon is already can’t answer on a face to face team fight so they are just waiting for the next clash to decide the game. ATF build backfires to them since he useless in the clash while his brood can’t push anymore.

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Quote from: passwordnow on July 09, 2024, 10:34:34 AM

-snip

The odds are very tempting but for me it would be better to take the risk of the draw. But if you really want to try to take a bet on higher odds, isn't it better to choose Falcon?

BTW, looks like you'd rather take big risks with higher odds, but it's okay because the odds are equal to the risks you take.

Quote from: ralle14 on July 09, 2024, 08:04:32 PM

-snip

When I posted a reply yesterday, odds for over 42.5 were not available. For now they are available and the odds are around @1.48 I also have the same thought as you because the Falcons and TS both have a good experience. Just the Falcons are still reinforced by Sneyking.
I like your bet to take risks with odds @1.8

Another option we can consider Falcons vs TS map 1.
Update
Correct Score 1:1 odds @1.9 Fail❌
1st Blood TS odds @1.88 Success✅
1st Aegis TS odds @1.95 Fail❌

Heroic vs Gaimin Gladiators
Correct Score 0:2 odds @2.15 Fail❌
1st Tower GG odds @1.55 Fail❌

Update

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Quote from: ralle14 on July 09, 2024, 08:04:32 PM

Quote from: passwordnow on July 09, 2024, 10:34:34 AM

But I'll try to be more conservative and if I won't be betting on the match winner, maybe for maps 1 and 2 only and not with the series winner which is safer I think.

This is a good alternative strategy, and you can even get better odds by betting on each map because, in the three-way market, the draw can sometimes go for as low as 1.85(decimal odds).

To be honest, I am very tempted to go in a threeway. I've already made my bet for map 1 and this is for the match of Team Spirit and Team Falcon, I went to total of under 44.5 kills. I hope that this is gonna be a good bet for me. I have another bet for a match winner even for bo2, I really can't resist the odds as it has tempted me.

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Quote from: len01 on July 08, 2024, 10:33:52 AM

Anyways, this first match that will take place on the 10th but I'm a little interested and can't wait for the Falcon vs TS match. I'm sure this will be an interesting match and it will take a little longer to complete each map. And the temporary prediction for Falcon vs TS map 1 total kills over 42.5

What are the odds when you took that line? Yesterday, I saw the total lines taken down for quite a while, and now it's up to 47.5 kills.

I'll still tail your prediction because I checked their stats in some of their previous meeting and they always have a total kill count of 50+ per game.

Quote from: passwordnow on July 09, 2024, 10:34:34 AM

But I'll try to be more conservative and if I won't be betting on the match winner, maybe for maps 1 and 2 only and not with the series winner which is safer I think.

This is a good alternative strategy, and you can even get better odds by betting on each map because, in the three-way market, the draw can sometimes go for as low as 1.85(decimal odds).

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Quote from: len01 on July 08, 2024, 10:33:52 AM

Quote from: passwordnow on July 07, 2024, 06:58:38 PM

-snip-

In the group stage, there will still be lots of challenges that we can take advantage of, but we have to be careful when determining our bets. In that round, almost all teams avoided losing and on the one hand, as explained
Liquipedia, all matches were Bo2.
For me, Bo2 is more difficult to predict than Bo3 which is easier to predict. But still I will bet more often on the total kill option or match duration or on other unusual options.

You bet it, it's true that Bo2 is harder than bo3. Because there can be a draw, team a and team b to win it all. So, three results instead of two and that's probably why the odds for these bo2 series are greater than bo3. I'll still try to push some bets tomorrow before these games happen. But I'll try to be more conservative and if I won't be betting on the match winner, maybe for maps 1 and 2 only and not with the series winner which is safer I think.

Quote from: len01 on July 08, 2024, 10:33:52 AM

Anyways, this first match that will take place on the 10th but I'm a little interested and can't wait for the Falcon vs TS match. I'm sure this will be an interesting match and it will take a little longer to complete each map. And the temporary prediction for Falcon vs TS map 1 total kills over 42.5

I also saw this earlier and I'm planning to go with TS because the odds is better. I'm not yet sure, maybe I'd break my own betting rule that I have promised not to bet in a series winner but you know, with all of these odds, they're very attractive and tempting.

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Quote from: passwordnow on July 07, 2024, 06:58:38 PM

-snip-

In the group stage, there will still be lots of challenges that we can take advantage of, but we have to be careful when determining our bets. In that round, almost all teams avoided losing and on the one hand, as explained
Liquipedia, all matches were Bo2.
For me, Bo2 is more difficult to predict than Bo3 which is easier to predict. But still I will bet more often on the total kill option or match duration or on other unusual options.

Anyways, this first match that will take place on the 10th but I'm a little interested and can't wait for the Falcon vs TS match. I'm sure this will be an interesting match and it will take a little longer to complete each map. And the temporary prediction for Falcon vs TS map 1 total kills over 42.5

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An end for the play-in and this is the update now. Some decider matches has been played.

Quote from: len01 on July 07, 2024, 10:50:18 AM

~snip~

Congratulations to your wins len. I am out of touch this play in and I've decided to skip a lot of it but looking forward to be winnable just as you with your picks. Looks like we're having a break for two days before we proceed to the group stages. I'll try to look for some other tournaments to bet on then.

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Quote from: arallmuus on July 07, 2024, 08:30:40 AM

Quote from: len01 on July 07, 2024, 06:50:23 AM

As usual, I will try to bet on the total kills and the first map without megacreep.

This is a pretty unusual type of bet. In fact this is my first time to notice that there is a bet on Megacreep. Whats the odds for Yes? I would totally take Yes on most Falcons game though. They are probably the team that always aim for megacreep whenever they play. It seems Stake covers alot more selection on dota2 betting huh

Yep, maybe most bettors will prefer the winning result of one of the teams, total map, score prediction and map handicap. But for me it's more challenging to bet on something unusual. For megacreep odds Yes, around @2.30.

It seems that other platforms also have several options and the platform you are promoting also has the same options. If you might try the thrill of betting on the same bets as me, it might be more challenging but this is not a suggestion.
It seems to depends on the Falcon opponent. If this team finds an easier opponent, it will often destroy the entire tower and create Megacreep and make it difficult for their opponents to defend against the creep.

BTW, This is the match result of the bet I chose. I hope the next bet on the Nouns vs LGD match will also win.

Update

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Quote from: len01 on July 07, 2024, 06:50:23 AM

As usual, I will try to bet on the total kills and the first map without megacreep.

This is a pretty unusual type of bet. In fact this is my first time to notice that there is a bet on Megacreep. Whats the odds for Yes? I would totally take Yes on most Falcons game though. They are probably the team that always aim for megacreep whenever they play. It seems Stake covers alot more selection on dota2 betting huh

Quote from: ralle14 on July 05, 2024, 07:55:14 PM

Quote from: arallmuus on July 05, 2024, 11:21:57 AM

-snip

They almost had the second map, but Watson's Morph was unkillable and beastcoast only had Weaver as their main damage dealer.

Still, I got it back after taking Blacklist Rivalry to sweep Virtus.pro in the other series.

I havent been betting at all ever since the 1st day. I got few wins on draws but yeah it wasnt any significant amount but I guess I'll wait until playoff to have a better shot on winning bets. Completely unrelated but meanwhile I've been focusing on euro games and I've been winning lol Grin

len01

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As usual, I will try to bet on the total kills and the first map without megacreep.

Virtus vs Mouz, I'm sure the first map will be finished faster because Mouz usually sees the opponent's playing style more often and my prediction is that Virtus will most likely dominate the first map. And Nouns vs LGD, these two teams always appear more careful. In fact, LGD often focuses on destroying towers and finishing matches more quickly, but Nouns fights more often. So getting megacreeps is very impossible.

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Quote from: arallmuus on July 05, 2024, 11:21:57 AM

Its too bad that you didnt win this. I probably would have taken this as well given that Beastcoast managed to get two draws yesterday especially after they lost the 1st map.

They almost had the second map, but Watson's Morph was unkillable and beastcoast only had Weaver as their main damage dealer.

Still, I got it back after taking Blacklist Rivalry to sweep Virtus.pro in the other series.

Quote from: arallmuus on July 05, 2024, 11:21:57 AM

Its pretty rough as always on bo2 games, the games are totally unpredictable and its kinda weird. I personally still lean on taking draws on bo2 games but its kinda weird to even watch the game expecting draws lol. I'd rather support a team to win rather than hoping for draws

I agree, you never know when one of these teams would fold or turn up all of a sudden. With countless tournaments that use the bo2 format, i'm already used to it. Tongue

I tend to skip the first map and watch the second to root for the team that still needs a map win.

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Game 2 is done for the play-in and we've got some teams who are already going to the next chapter despite that we've got the 3rd and last day of matches tomorrow. Whilst, Azure Ray is sure to get out this early but still got a remaining game tomorrow as well. By the way, here's the current status of the teams as this second day ends. The teams that are highlighted in green have secured their spot to the group stage and likely can go easy tomorrow. And on the bottom, the red ones are and will be eliminated.

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Quote from: ralle14 on July 04, 2024, 10:30:34 PM

Quote from: sunsilk on July 03, 2024, 05:44:36 PM

Hope you win.

Thanks, the parlay cashed after most of the games yesterday ended with each team winning a map.

That's good to know.

Despite that, this is just the 2nd day of the play on stage. There have been teams already that are able to qualify for the group stages.

We've got some fruitful results for group A today and many matches have been 2-0. Blacklist and Entity already qualified for the next - group stages.

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Quote from: ralle14 on July 04, 2024, 10:30:34 PM

Its too bad that you didnt win this. I probably would have taken this as well given that Beastcoast managed to get two draws yesterday especially after they lost the 1st map. Its pretty rough as always on bo2 games, the games are totally unpredictable and its kinda weird. I personally still lean on taking draws on bo2 games but its kinda weird to even watch the game expecting draws lol. I'd rather support a team to win rather than hoping for draws

Anyway, two china region teams on group A seems to be having hard time winning their game so far

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Quote from: sunsilk on July 03, 2024, 05:44:36 PM

Hope you win.

Thanks, the parlay cashed after most of the games yesterday ended with each team winning a map.

Quote from: len01 on July 04, 2024, 03:50:01 AM

And finally, to be honest, I don't really like Blacklist and Beastcoast, but I tried placing a bet to see how strong these two teams are.

I also had low expectations from those two but after today's results, i'm taking the risk before the odds get adjusted in the next few days.

I saw this draw @2.4 between beastcoast vs. Entity as one of the highest out of all the matches scheduled later today. I don't think Entity should be this high of a favorite even though they've been delivering some good results recently.

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Quote from: ralle14 on July 02, 2024, 03:14:53 AM

Quote from: len01 on July 02, 2024, 12:03:42 AM

-snip

I'd give them a high probability of getting one map, most teams aim for a draw and avoid losing 0-2.

Thank you for the information you provide.
After considering everything and to be honest I have to adapt more deeply into Dota 2, I will take a smaller risk to bet on each map.

I have always preferred to bet on total kills or map duration and I only remember that Entity has a team strength that is always solid and goes to war more often.
And for LGD vs Virtus, as far as I remember these two teams always had big ambitions in every match (but I believe LGD will be more successful)

And finally, to be honest, I don't really like Blacklist and Beastcoast, but I tried placing a bet to see how strong these two teams are.

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Quote from: ralle14 on July 02, 2024, 09:06:27 PM

Quote from: sunsilk on July 02, 2024, 06:47:47 PM

I think that's like the practice yard that they have for the Riyadh masters and we're about to see that tomorrow.

They won't play tomorrow, they'll be skipping the play-ins since they are already qualified through EPT points. According to the schedule, we'll get to see them play next week.

Yeah, I checked the lists of the teams and they're going to skip the play in as they're secured in the group stages, thanks for the correction.

Quote from: ralle14 on July 02, 2024, 09:06:27 PM

For tomorrow's matches, i've gone for the underdogs (G2.IG and Virtus.Pro) to take a map, both odds are around 1.30 to 1.45. I could've added more legs, but two is my limit for now to test the waters.

G2.IG seems to be not that favored at all this time but they're strong. The same with Virtus.Pro, they're consistent into participating in these big tournaments.

Hope you win.

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Quote from: sunsilk on July 02, 2024, 06:47:47 PM

I think that's like the practice yard that they have for the Riyadh masters and we're about to see that tomorrow.

They won't play tomorrow, they'll be skipping the play-ins since they are already qualified through EPT points. According to the schedule, we'll get to see them play next week.

For tomorrow's matches, i've gone for the underdogs (G2.IG and Virtus.Pro) to take a map, both odds are around 1.30 to 1.45. I could've added more legs, but two is my limit for now to test the waters.

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Quote from: ralle14 on July 01, 2024, 08:13:37 PM

Quote from: sunsilk on July 01, 2024, 07:46:26 AM

Yes, they've won this tournament and it may not be that much. In an interview, I think one of them said that they're not in full form for this tournament and they're on the experimental period.

But come on, they've won and beat the other strong teams too despite that this is a tournament that could test some of their new strategies ready for Riyadh Masters and TI.

In that tournament, i'd say Team Spirit and Gaimin Gladiators are the only two strong teams. Entity and the rest could close into their level, but there's still a decent gap given both semis ended in a sweep.

If that's out of form to the Team Spirit players, i'm looking forward to the performance they'll be dishing out during the Riyadh Masters once they're fully prepared. Tongue

I think that's like the practice yard that they have for the Riyadh masters and we're about to see that tomorrow.

Team Spirit is still in good shape despite winning two ti's and they're still in tact, the 4 that have taken their first aegis. So, if OG and Team Spirit did already made history.

I guess that they can make another one for themselves and if they both made two ti aegis, why not make it three for Team Spirit?

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Quote from: len01 on July 02, 2024, 12:03:42 AM

Sorry to hear about your loss but I'm curious why you took such a big risk betting on Nigma? Meanwhile, as far as I know, TS is one of the teams that relies on playing speed.
What I know before I quit following Dota 2, TS was one of the teams that was feared at that time or maybe I was too far behind regarding the latest information?

I'd assume it's because of the group stage format being a bo1, they could catch Team Spirit off guard, and with those odds, it's understandable to go for the risky play.

You're not that far behind when it comes to Team Spirit and the current competitive scene, they're still one of the scariest teams together with the other two(Team Falcons and Xtreme Gaming).

Quote from: len01 on July 02, 2024, 12:03:42 AM

BTW, regarding the Riyadh Masters tournament there is an interesting first match between G2.IG vs Entity. What do you think, does Entity still have a chance of winning faster in the first match? I think yes

I'd give them a high probability of getting one map, most teams aim for a draw and avoid losing 0-2.

Topic: Esports Prediction & Discussion Thread - page 24. (Read 77026 times)