Esports Prediction & Discussion Thread - page 24.

Wapfika

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Quote from: Trofo on July 21, 2024, 10:13:56 AM

Team Liquid always screwing with my predictions. They won way yo cleanly against Falcons today. I could maybe see them win but no way 2:0. Now they will just gift the title to GG.

Their current pick is so unorthodox. GG can overwhelm them due to the massive summon while their only counter is Tidehunter which is not sufficient. They don’t have follow up damage after the ravage.

I’m still aiming for Liquid here if Boxi can do the same impressive game using morph since he can be source for another follow damage in the late game. I’m wondering how MK will play this out against broodmother with web all over the place.

Edit:

Liquid picks backfire. Tidehunter is proven useless.

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Team Liquid always screwing with my predictions. They won way yo cleanly against Falcons today. I could maybe see them win but no way 2:0. Now they will just gift the title to GG.

ralle14

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I'm also siding with Gaimin Gladiators in this grand finals, but I will go for their map handicap to push the odds slightly higher.

I'd still assume Team Liquid will struggle against Gaimin Gladiators and I don't think the momentum from their win against Team Falcons would change the outcome of this series.

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Quote from: len01 on July 21, 2024, 07:36:04 AM

Quote from: Coin_trader on July 20, 2024, 03:51:58 AM

It’s not depending on the total kills for the odds to raise on a bet related to map win count. It’s always based to the gold advantage of the team since there’s a scenario that a team with high kill count is behind in terms of gold or just breakeven since they are just killing supports while the carry can farm freely without any kills.

Your explanation is very accurate and it makes a lot of sense. I'm sorry I may have been wrong but I think the number of kills also affect the bookmakers to Increase or decrease the odds.

No need to say sorry bro. It’s just a friendly discussion. We are all just stating our opinion here and we aim to help each other to broaden our gambling knowledge for better profitability.

Total kills is being considered too. That’s correct but bookie highly considered net worth lead over total kills on determining winning probability. But it’s really a case to case basis depending on the actual condition in the map because a hero like meepo and alche can give an early gold lead but that doesn’t mean they are winning the game.

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Quote from: passwordnow on July 21, 2024, 08:16:34 AM

Oh my Falcons, terrible game 1 and 2. If they're just able to make that duration 34 minutes over on map 1, I won't be disappointment even if I've lost the match winner's bet. The game is more than 34 minutes on map 2. I guess that we're seeing an ammar nerf on this patch.

Because I am impressed with Team Liquid's performance, I have bet on them to win at least 1 map. And still, I'd go with their kryptonite for the match winner - GG.

Just give me some W! this is it for the grand finals.

Ammar is completely shutdown on this game even if he pick his comfortable hero. Also Malrine is totally outplayed by Nisha on mid games that makes Falcon so bad on early game. Falcon is just strong if ATF and Malrine can create space for skiter which didn’t happened on both match.

Team Liquid is so strong from early to finish the game. Boxi has an insane game too especially with his Morph support. I think Liquid can beat GG if their support can perform like what they did on Falcon.

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Quote from: len01 on July 21, 2024, 07:36:04 AM

Quote from: passwordnow on July 21, 2024, 07:20:32 AM

My duration bet has lost for the map 1 of Team Falcons and Team Liquid. Dude, my durating bet is over 34 minutes and Team Falcons was wiped out on 30:50. So close!!!!! if the score isn't that 5-31. 5 kills for Team Falcons and 31 for Team Liquid, I don't think they'd call that early.

Falcons are very bad on map 1 because the hero used will probably not be able to give longer resistance and even total kill is very different far.

Honestly I have a strong prediction TL will win this game on map 3. Tongue

Oh my Falcons, terrible game 1 and 2. If they're just able to make that duration 34 minutes over on map 1, I won't be disappointment even if I've lost the match winner's bet. The game is more than 34 minutes on map 2. I guess that we're seeing an ammar nerf on this patch.

Because I am impressed with Team Liquid's performance, I have bet on them to win at least 1 map. And still, I'd go with their kryptonite for the match winner - GG.

Just give me some W! this is it for the grand finals.

len01

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Quote from: Coin_trader on July 20, 2024, 03:51:58 AM

It’s not depending on the total kills for the odds to raise on a bet related to map win count. It’s always based to the gold advantage of the team since there’s a scenario that a team with high kill count is behind in terms of gold or just breakeven since they are just killing supports while the carry can farm freely without any kills.

Your explanation is very accurate and it makes a lot of sense. I'm sorry I may have been wrong but I think the number of kills also affect the bookmakers to Increase or decrease the odds.

Quote from: Beparanf on July 20, 2024, 01:08:01 PM

Quote from: Trofo on July 20, 2024, 11:48:56 AM

-snip

Watching Liquid is very painful because 33 not performing well which Liquid has high expectation to the space he should create but it turns out that his lane is always the weakest and needs frequent visit since dyrcho keeps dominating him badly. If 33 performs better, Liquid has better chance to get at least 1 map. GG is indeed the achilles heel of Liquid in every tournament. They can’t past this team no matter what they do.

Same with Quest to Falcons. This team’s game play is a natural counter. Lol

I can barely think of how TL can be defeated by GG without being able to give resistance to at least one map. IMO, TL mistake was in laning which was not optimal, but choosing the wrong hero made TL feel uncomfortable.

Quote from: passwordnow on July 21, 2024, 07:20:32 AM

My duration bet has lost for the map 1 of Team Falcons and Team Liquid. Dude, my durating bet is over 34 minutes and Team Falcons was wiped out on 30:50. So close!!!!! if the score isn't that 5-31. 5 kills for Team Falcons and 31 for Team Liquid, I don't think they'd call that early.

Falcons are very bad on map 1 because the hero used will probably not be able to give longer resistance and even total kill is very different far.

Honestly I have a strong prediction TL will win this game on map 3. Tongue

It's fucking almost a bet I lost on map 1 while I was on my way home and rushed to place a bet. I should've chosen MegaCreep No but I'm wrong to placed Benyond Godlike. Undecided

But lucky that TL finished the game quickly.

I hope at least on map 2 the Falcons can give a resistance on map 2, if they want to get to the finals.

passwordnow

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My duration bet has lost for the map 1 of Team Falcons and Team Liquid. Dude, my durating bet is over 34 minutes and Team Falcons was wiped out on 30:50. So close!!!!! if the score isn't that 5-31. 5 kills for Team Falcons and 31 for Team Liquid, I don't think they'd call that early.

Quote from: ralle14 on July 20, 2024, 09:18:20 PM

Quote from: passwordnow on July 20, 2024, 04:09:43 PM

Lucky me, won this only bet for this day although the odd isn't a lot but I'd take the W.

I also had a ticket on Gaimin Gladiators and they saved me from going winless. Tongue

After that beatdown from Gaimin Gladiators, i'll gladly take Team Falcons to beat Team Liquid in the lower bracket final. If Team Liquid can't get a map against Gaimin Gladiators yesterday regardless of the good heroes they've drafted, I don't see them bouncing back in this series to set a rematch in the final.

I also bet Team Falcons. The first game goes to Team Liquid. 1 more and they'd go to the finals and we lose our bet but if the second game will be won by Team Falcons, I guess that they'd be able to put this series in favor of them. That game 1 morphling support of boxi was dope.

ralle14

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Quote from: passwordnow on July 20, 2024, 04:09:43 PM

Lucky me, won this only bet for this day although the odd isn't a lot but I'd take the W.

I also had a ticket on Gaimin Gladiators and they saved me from going winless. Tongue

After that beatdown from Gaimin Gladiators, i'll gladly take Team Falcons to beat Team Liquid in the lower bracket final. If Team Liquid can't get a map against Gaimin Gladiators yesterday regardless of the good heroes they've drafted, I don't see them bouncing back in this series to set a rematch in the final.

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Quote from: Trofo on July 20, 2024, 11:48:56 AM

I have been following DOTA a lot this last week but still got totally wrong read on games today. Liquid was improving and playing quite well and I was sure they can take one map from GG.

That's okay, there's an history about GG and Team Liquid. In the past several tournaments, GG always dominated Team Liquid, whether it's in the finals or semis. And like their match today, GG won 2-0.

Quote from: Trofo on July 20, 2024, 11:48:56 AM

Falcons also started slow into the tournament but they were playing better and better and I thought easy 2:0 should be the result today. Ah, well, hopefully it will go better tomorrow,

They're able to take out Tundra for 2-0, this is the typical Team Falcons that we know but it's unfortunate they have their route through the lower bracket but still, three teams remaining. As GG awaits in the grand finals, Team Liquid and Team Falcons tomorrow for the semi finals.

Quote from: passwordnow on July 19, 2024, 10:56:19 PM

Lucky me, won this only bet for this day although the odd isn't a lot but I'd take the W.

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Quote from: Trofo on July 20, 2024, 11:48:56 AM

and I thought easy 2:0 should be the result today. Ah, well, hopefully it will go better tomorrow,

Falcons actually won 2-0 but its against Tundra. Pure made a silly mistake on the 2nd map which ended the game afterward, if only he didnt then it could easily go off to the 3rd map. Imagine farming all the way until 50 minutes only to commit silly mistake that cost the game, this would put a stain on his career history

So Team Liquid - Falcons tomorrow for the first game. This totally screams over 2.5 maps but once Falcons finds their momentum on the 1st map, it could be easily 0-2 for them again but either way Im betting on GG for the final

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Quote from: Trofo on July 20, 2024, 11:48:56 AM

I have been following DOTA a lot this last week but still got totally wrong read on games today. Liquid was improving and playing quite well and I was sure they can take one map from GG. Falcons also started slow into the tournament but they were playing better and better and I thought easy 2:0 should be the result today. Ah, well, hopefully it will go better tomorrow,

Watching Liquid is very painful because 33 not performing well which Liquid has high expectation to the space he should create but it turns out that his lane is always the weakest and needs frequent visit since dyrcho keeps dominating him badly. If 33 performs better, Liquid has better chance to get at least 1 map. GG is indeed the achilles heel of Liquid in every tournament. They can’t past this team no matter what they do.

Same with Quest to Falcons. This team’s game play is a natural counter. Lol

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Falcons is already 1 win away to semi finals against Tundra. I thought Tundra already got game 1 since MK has total map control due to mobility yet Falcon manage to win all the team fights due to their vision provided by the wards of weaver which is everywhere.

I don’t understand why BM is still being pick as offlane hero while it’s contested pick most of the time and low winning rate so far. I’m not updated on the patch but it seems like BM is very hard to win a lane. I watch many games today that BM is struggling early games.

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Quote from: Beparanf on July 20, 2024, 11:37:31 AM

Quote from: len01 on July 20, 2024, 02:22:48 AM

Lower Bracket

Falcons vs PSG.
This match was supposed to be the Falcons who had to win but PSG proved that they were more confident after beating TS. I'm going to choose over 2.5 and also have other options that I'll update later.

Upper Bracket

GG vs TL
Honestly this game is hard on prediction because GG sometimes gives surprises and for me TL has a chance too and I hope today's game ends over 2.5

You’ve got 1-1 on this pick. I have high hopes that TL can beat GG or at least get 1 map but they are always outplayed on the laning phase especially 33 that always late on item timing. TL always has a weak start which GG always capitalize until the end.

TF vs Quest is more entertaining to watch due to the close match. It’s sad for Quest they can’t do the revenge match against Falcon that always gatekeeping them on every major tournament. ATF is very strong if he gets his comfort here but still Kudos to Quest for giving a promising fight against TF.

I have been following DOTA a lot this last week but still got totally wrong read on games today. Liquid was improving and playing quite well and I was sure they can take one map from GG. Falcons also started slow into the tournament but they were playing better and better and I thought easy 2:0 should be the result today. Ah, well, hopefully it will go better tomorrow,

Beparanf

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Quote from: len01 on July 20, 2024, 02:22:48 AM

Lower Bracket

Falcons vs PSG.
This match was supposed to be the Falcons who had to win but PSG proved that they were more confident after beating TS. I'm going to choose over 2.5 and also have other options that I'll update later.

Upper Bracket

GG vs TL
Honestly this game is hard on prediction because GG sometimes gives surprises and for me TL has a chance too and I hope today's game ends over 2.5

You’ve got 1-1 on this pick. I have high hopes that TL can beat GG or at least get 1 map but they are always outplayed on the laning phase especially 33 that always late on item timing. TL always has a weak start which GG always capitalize until the end.

TF vs Quest is more entertaining to watch due to the close match. It’s sad for Quest they can’t do the revenge match against Falcon that always gatekeeping them on every major tournament. ATF is very strong if he gets his comfort here but still Kudos to Quest for giving a promising fight against TF.

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Quote from: len01 on July 20, 2024, 02:22:48 AM

Quote from: arallmuus on July 19, 2024, 02:55:35 PM

I've never actually bet over 2.5 maps after the 1st map ( well atleast not that I remember ), how good is the odds though? It should be way lower than pre bet isnt it? I personally think that taking over 2.5 maps on pre-bet seems to be just way optimal way to bet if you are pretty sure that the game is going to be over 2.5 maps

Just as @ralle14 says it all depends on which team has the first win and also the total kill when the game is going on.

As I remember, the odds were around @1.8+ when the total kill of Tundra and TL was almost equal on map 2.

It’s not depending on the total kills for the odds to raise on a bet related to map win count. It’s always based to the gold advantage of the team since there’s a scenario that a team with high kill count is behind in terms of gold or just breakeven since they are just killing supports while the carry can farm freely without any kills.

Also to clarify about depending the team who get the first win. It only means that the odds will increase if the underdog team get the W on the first map because most likely bookmakers assume that the favorite team will get the first map win.

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Quote from: passwordnow on July 19, 2024, 02:27:41 PM

Lucky you are, I have bet for TS there but then surprisingly PSG.Quest won. Tundra and BetBoom are currently 1-1, I've skipped to bet on this game and will look forward for the matches tomorrow.

Looks like in Riyadh it's harder to predict and easier to forecast in the IT competition.
Like yesterday's TL vs Tundra game I thought Tundra would win but it turns out TL could get win and after that TS vs PSG that surprised me even though I didn't bet on this game.

But it's all right, 1–1 is a good result and we still have a pretty good game today.

Lower Bracket

Falcons vs PSG.
This match was supposed to be the Falcons who had to win but PSG proved that they were more confident after beating TS. I'm going to choose over 2.5 and also have other options that I'll update later.

Upper Bracket

GG vs TL
Honestly this game is hard on prediction because GG sometimes gives surprises and for me TL has a chance too and I hope today's game ends over 2.5

Quote from: arallmuus on July 19, 2024, 02:55:35 PM

I've never actually bet over 2.5 maps after the 1st map ( well atleast not that I remember ), how good is the odds though? It should be way lower than pre bet isnt it? I personally think that taking over 2.5 maps on pre-bet seems to be just way optimal way to bet if you are pretty sure that the game is going to be over 2.5 maps

Just as @ralle14 says it all depends on which team has the first win and also the total kill when the game is going on.

As I remember, the odds were around @1.8+ when the total kill of Tundra and TL was almost equal on map 2.

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Quote from: arallmuus on July 19, 2024, 02:55:35 PM

Anyway Tundra won against BB, quite expected and this is just crazy. We have GG and Team Liquid on upper bracket, we also will probably have falcons and Tundra on lower bracket. Well Falcons need to win tomorrow against PSG.Quest for this scenario to happen but seriously, how would they even lose against PSG.Quest

I have skipped that Tundra and BB but most likely I have won that then because I'd go for Tundra anyway it was intended by me to skip that match. And speaking of GG and Team Liquid, we all knew that GG is the kryptonite of Team Liquid but they're able to prove themselves on this tournament and let's see if that had changed already or it still remains. I'd go with Gaimin Gladiators, most of the odds aren't that good except if you'd choose PSG.Quest over Team Falcons for which I am not willing to gamble there, also other betting types aren't favorable to me so this is it for today.

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Quote from: arallmuus on July 19, 2024, 02:55:35 PM

I've never actually bet over 2.5 maps after the 1st map ( well atleast not that I remember ), how good is the odds though? It should be way lower than pre bet isnt it? I personally think that taking over 2.5 maps on pre-bet seems to be just way optimal way to bet if you are pretty sure that the game is going to be over 2.5 maps

From what I recall, it's usually similar to the live +1.5 map handicap and sometimes they go down to 1.65 - 1.40 depending on who wins the first map.

Quote from: arallmuus on July 19, 2024, 02:55:35 PM

Well Falcons need to win tomorrow against PSG.Quest for this scenario to happen but seriously, how would they even lose against PSG.Quest

They'll be in danger if they pick something unusual again like that Huskar on ATF and if they allow PSG.Quest to get the heroes they wanted, in the Team Spirit series it was the SK and Naga cores going through on maps two and three.

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Quote from: len01 on July 19, 2024, 09:38:23 AM

Quote from: arallmuus on July 18, 2024, 01:41:38 PM

-snip

My prediction is actually true but unfortunately I fell asleep when watching on map 1 and only had time to bet on map 1. If only I didn't sleep, maybe on map 2 I'd bet on over 2.5.

I've never actually bet over 2.5 maps after the 1st map ( well atleast not that I remember ), how good is the odds though? It should be way lower than pre bet isnt it? I personally think that taking over 2.5 maps on pre-bet seems to be just way optimal way to bet if you are pretty sure that the game is going to be over 2.5 maps

Anyway Tundra won against BB, quite expected and this is just crazy. We have GG and Team Liquid on upper bracket, we also will probably have falcons and Tundra on lower bracket. Well Falcons need to win tomorrow against PSG.Quest for this scenario to happen but seriously, how would they even lose against PSG.Quest

Topic: Esports Prediction & Discussion Thread - page 24. (Read 78338 times)