That doesn't mean it can't exceed its marketcap.
Companies are being started all the time that are "not a contender for bitcoin" that will still exceed its marketcap. It's in a different sector - the "Bitcoin 2.0".
At the same time, you could of course be right. I took your view when we were at 0.009. I got a total bruising trying to exit the market during the last profit-take phase. Ended up having to throw in the towel and buy back in - luckily I was still awake at 2:00am in the morning when it took off again.
Then, favouring your side, is Adam Back who says that "blockchain-app" coins are not as valuable as "bearer coins" because the apps can move anywhere and leave the coins behind. Despite that, I think that if they're on that network then the marketcap of the whole "blockchain-app" eco-system is likely to manifest itself in the coin valuation.
It's the Wild West. We cannot tell how things are going to go. I've made up my mind that 15% of BTC cap is a reasonable interim milestone for me. Everyone has to make up their own mind.
Just hedge a bit here and a bit there and we'll all be able to afford a few jollies at the end of the road whichever way it goes
*** EDIT ***
Look ! It's already going ballistic just since I wrote that post. Seems the fear and greed factor is strong in this market right now and everyone is now sh*t scared of "missing out". FOMO as it's affectionately known. Hope it works out for folks.
Shorters caught with their pants down in Poloniex margin-trading-land. I know the feeling