What I would like to know is if there is a likelihood of a ROI on the IPO. This is the first time that we have seen a (non scam) IPO with PoW mining. Since the fundraiser will last a whopping 60 days, it is likely that everyone that wants to get in on the project, will already be in, which will create a shortage of buyers post fundraiser and a I'm sure there will be an absolutely huge amount of miners on release. Supply and demand would kick in and the price per currency would fall causing all investors to lose money. I am very interested in the project and making it a success, but logic tells me to wait. Correct me if I'm wrong.
ROI is ultimately connected to the demand for coins and it is our belief long term that the utility presented will be significant thus driving demand. I suppose it will depend upon your time horizon and also market perception. Ethereum will not be transferable until mining begins and I would expect enormous volatility during the first few trading days; however, I reject the notion of immediate liquidation. Should the product be well formed it appears highly likely many people who missed or passed on the fundraiser will want to invest while prices are still low. My goal is not to make investors money immediately after mining begins. My goal is to offer a product that will have a healthy ROI over some reasonable period of time (say 6-12 months). The only way to accomplish this is to ensure the ecosystem is well developed and provides real value.
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I have not received any letter...Why ?
Website is still buggy. We didn't anticipate the public being aware until closer to Miami. Try again in a few days and sorry for the delay.
Richard, I've been following the project very closely. Questions I still have:
1) Since both turing-complete on the blockchain and GHOST have never been implemented before (AFAIK), isn't there a risk to investors to put money in *before* these concepts have been 100% validated? Or are you further down the implementation stage that you let out?
2) If capital dilution is baked in, surely this means the valuation of Ether needs to climb at a proportional rate or else both founders + investors would lose out over time?
3) Why use 12m time lock with dilution instead of a staggered time lock (this would make it much more akin to a standard startup reverse vesting process) Having the risk of core members bailing out at 12 months is not reassuring.
4) Do you plan / reserver the right to further rounds later on?
5) When are we going to get a full list of the people involved? So far only yourself and Vitalik have been announced, surely investors will want to do due diligence on each and everyone
Thank you!
It's Charles and let's do these in order
1) Since both turing-complete on the blockchain and GHOST have never been implemented before (AFAIK), isn't there a risk to investors to put money in *before* these concepts have been 100% validated? Or are you further down the implementation stage that you let out?
We spent a great deal of time writing and testing PoC code and also examining the scripting language. As a cryptographer, my foremost concern is the security model behind our sandbox. There is risk in all technology, yet we are early enough in this process to change things in the event an unexpected failure of design occurs. GHOST is solid and we already have a spec for the high level language:
http://wiki.ethereum.org/index.php/CLL. That said, long journey ahead.
2) If capital dilution is baked in, surely this means the valuation of Ether needs to climb at a proportional rate or else both founders + investors would lose out over time?
The buy in will be in the millions and the expected market cap is in the billions. And yes this is correct, the price per ether does need to grow for returns justifying the risks of investment. Supply increases linearly whereas demand during the initial few years should be non-linear as large amounts of actors enter the market and new applications are discovered. The applications in Wall Street alone are fairly remarkable and we already have two quants working on the project writing up reference financial contracts that work on Ethereum.
3) Why use 12m time lock with dilution instead of a staggered time lock (this would make it much more akin to a standard startup reverse vesting process) Having the risk of core members bailing out at 12 months is not reassuring.
We have a few models for how to handle founder shares. The design principles are to both incentive founders to stay attached to the project long term and also to inhibit any notion of a pump and dumb. Thus shares need to be locked for some period of time sufficiently long to prove the utility of the network itself. Second, the network needs to evolve to the point that the founders are no longer necessary for the long term health of the ecosystem just value adders. We could stagger lock outs or do a gradual release. When the fundraiser begins, there will be full disclosure how and why we decided to do this process
4) Do you plan / reserver the right to further rounds later on?
No, one shot and done. The purpose of the 0.25x developer shares is to endow a DAC to maintain the network long term after ether has a respectable market value. The fundraiser covers expenses up to that point.
5) When are we going to get a full list of the people involved? So far only yourself and Vitalik have been announced, surely investors will want to do due diligence on each and everyone
There are five founders and the other 3 will be announced when the website is launched prior to Miami. We'll be front and center with PGP keys and all. There are also a lot of volunteers, developers and others we've managed to pick up over the past month. Our forums will be the best place to get to know them.