Topic: Everything you wanted to know about Grayscale BTC Trust but were afraid to ask! - page 2. (Read 16372 times)

Thank you. Yes this will certainly cause fear, uncertainty and a big dump if this news becomes the next big storyline in the cryptospace hhehehe. Will this have an attention from the community similar to FTX?

However, I would not be shocked if mayor Larry Fink wants a big dump on the market to occur. He will be there happy for everyone to dump on his face with his mouth open.

he is talking about
https://ag.ny.gov/sites/default/files/2024-02/genesis-amended-complaint.pdf

Link or it didn't happen..


Yes. .I know you are saying "rumors," but still that is pretty vague...

What happened?  A little birdie told you?

 

the initial case was about $1b of crypto being abused and lost.. the expanding case is about another $2b of money that was supposedly involved in the scheme that was abused and lost, where investors promises were broken.

if DCG has to find another $2b to make customers whole under its court order charges which resulted in a fine only being $21m IF investors are made whole.. will cause DCG to need to sell off more assets to cover that new expanded cost it needs to cover

the specifics of the "fraud" were relating to how the promotions of the scheme were advertised.
simply that it was advertised like standard bank savings account that earned specific amount of interest and funds guaranteed/insured
where as reality was it was more of a investment/leveraging scheme where funds were not guaranteed/insured and people could lose and gain

According to some rumors, the New York State Attorney General's office will be expanding the civil lawsuit against the Digital Currency Group and there will also be a case against Gemini. This is head shaking because there are allegations that Barry Silbert, Digital Currency Group and Gemini commited fraud on their customers.

This might cause more dumps on GBTC? The skeptical me thinks Larry Fink wants cheaper bitcoins heheehhe.

last update here of mine was
25th jan: GBTC holdings: 523,516
latest update is
10th feb: GBTC holdings: 466,534

12 business days(excludes weekends) is a average outflow of 4,748.5btc
(i wasnt doing daily checks on GBTC in the last fortnight)

blackrock thursday evening
82,515.95
vs friday evening
87,779.83
shows blackrock is accelerating inflows(5,263btc).
blackrock was previously only daily buying of $100m which averaged about <2400btc

Yesterday, the ETF registered a record high inflow, while Grayscale had a record low outflows.
GBTC had an outflow of only 51.8 million, the lowest on record.
Bleeding is stopping?
I guess it is at least slowing, while the ones that really wanted to exit have already done so.

Lowest outflows today for GBTC: only 73 million left GBTC.
I am still waiting for the other data point.
Recently, a slow day in outflows has also been a slow day in inflows. Let's see if it is the case as well.

To my personal spider-sense, GBTB is almost halfway through selling: the second half of flows might be more balanced from the first investors who wanted to rush out of the GBTC investment. This kind of actor doesn't really care about the net PNL, rather than all the other characteristics such as liquidity and AP dealers involvement.

You are not really pointing out any place that is contradictory and/or confusing, except maybe you are making it confusing in your own way of clarifying and confusing at the same time (a unique franky1 talent... hahahahha).

1) I think that any business should have goals to maximize their profits, and surely if they have gotten themselves into somewhat of a financial pickle, then they could engage in a variety of tactics that involve both selling some of their own GBTC shares, but also keeping the fees up on everyone still brings in way more fees (even with a so far bleed off of 21.5% of their funds - if we use your numbers).

2) I am not clear exactly how many shares of the 138k BTC would have had been Grayscale's, and maybe it is not even close to 50k BTC that they have sold, but others are selling their own GBTC shares and so then Grayscale has to sell the underlying bitcoin when such sales happen from their various clients.

I am pretty sure that there were already estimates that GBTC would end up losing around 25% of its holdings in a fairly short period of time once the competitive products were offered, so it is almost as if we are in the ballpark of that earlier estimate, and maybe it ends up getting up to 30% to 40% of the total AUM lost, in the next 3-4 months, that is still not going to be any kind of major catastrophe for Grayscale, and they likely are still doing better by keeping their fees at 1.5% for the whole year, or maybe they will reduce them at some point later down the road, but they may well still be better off to do a more gradual reduction in their fees rather than engaging in the race to the bottom that the newbie entrants seemed to have had tried to inspire, in which Grayscale likely does not need to play that game, even though they are getting a lot of negative press in the last 2-3 weeks.

the alistair milne tweet.. doesnt make sense

he explains
'DCG has ~$2b of debt.. so needs high fees to use high fees to pay off debt'
'DCG has ~$2b of debt.. so needs to sell $2b of its locked coin to pay off debt'
all in the same tweet..

however even at a discount lets say $40k/btc
selling just 50,000btc would cover $2b
however grayscale dropped by over 100k and still dropping. (502k from over 640k = over 138k)
or in fiat terms they took $5.5b+ out of their own game

its not a high fee to use fees to pay debt. its a high fee to create a closed door to not introduce new share buckets to compete with the need for grayscale to sell its own shares and then relinquish control of those coins

I reckon might it be good to create a basic estimation on all of DCG's payables and use that to also estimate when Grayscale might stop dumping on our faces based on the amount of bitcoin that they are selling per day.

This is head shaking for Barry because he was criticizing the hedgefunds and the institutional traders in the cryptospace as high risk. It appears that he was one of them hehehe.

The ETF world is evolving fast.

ETF's are coming way more aligned:

There are a couple of graphs from James Seyfarth.

The premium/discounts are getting closer and closer:




The arbitrage band is then closing:



This represents the higher premium less, the wider discount. If IBIT is 0.5% premium and GBTC is -2.5%, or 2.5% discount, then the arbitrage band is 0.5%+2.5%=3%

The machine is cranking up, and the market forces are pushing APs to be more efficient at creation/redemption and closing arbitrage possibilities.

I guess taking advantage would just be the best instead of worrying about what they are doing, dip buys rules 🥳🥳🥳

update: grayscale holdings 523,516btc



just treat it as discount season. last chance to buy low compared to start of month before the growth towards 2025 ATH

i was expecting coinbase as custodian (central reserve) to OTC(coinbase prime) trade privately in-cash between two interested AP(agent/brokers) wanting to move between different ETF

fees are more of a deterrent for new AP grabbing btc and wanting to lock into grayscale
grayscale needs to offload its own stash to pay off debt so doesnt want new baskets of shares competing with shares they want their clients redeeming of DCG locked baskets
the fee's are negligible amounts compared to the lumps of debts owed. even if you added up X years of fee's it wont cover the billions of debt
i think its just a shuffle game at the moment for dcg/grayscale. and later they will drop fee's and invite AP back in with new baskets.. or fizzle away

Can anyone really tell why Grayscale decides to sell its btc on coinbase instead of otc? And this excessive selling of spot on coinbase is actually damping the bull run power, I smell something fishy going on here

Speaking about legal fights, I read a very interesting take from Alistair Milne:



This is a very interesting one, and it explains a lot about the current state of things and even why some irrational decisions were made about fees.
The bad news is that apparently a lot of selling is yet to be expected. 

update: gbtc holdings 536,694btc
(that 100k gone in less than a fortnight)


also gemini this week made legal court claims to ~28k btc (31m shares of gbtc's 600m share cap)
confirmation hearing next month (feb 14th)

It also appears that FTX dropped their lawsuit against Grayscale for charging high fees and refusal to redeem their investors' shares. This is headhsaking because as a company, Grayscale can charge an amount they want and was it also known already that GBTC cannot redeem the underlying coins until the trust is converted into an ETF?

In any case, this picture is the joke about Barry in social media heheehheh. Barry jokes will be plenty on this year. Locking this thread will certainly be a mistake hehe.



Bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange FTX's affiliate Alameda Research has dropped a lawsuit against Grayscale Investments that had accused the digital asset manager of "enriching itself at shareholders' expense", a court filing showed on Monday.

Alameda, which filed the lawsuit in a Delaware court in March last year, had also accused Grayscale of charging high fees and refusing to allow investors to redeem their shares from its two crypto-focused trusts, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and the Grayscale Ethereum Trust.

Source https://www.reuters.com/legal/ftx-tied-alameda-research-drops-lawsuit-against-grayscale-2024-01-22/

my $1b was pulled from media
looking more into it seems it was 20k btc (ive not looked into Eth as thats not redeemable yet)

yea the 20k btc linked to ftx went out early, just after launch. not this week