*The leans below will not count to my stats here in this thread. Follow or fade, it's up to you!
WON - Take Luigi Vendramini over Jessin Ayari (7:40p.m., Saturday, October 3rd)
Kicking off "UFC on ESPN 16" we have a lightweight matchup between Luigi Vendramini (8-1) and Jessin Ayari (16-5). Interesting fight here, in low-level MMA where almost anything can happen. Luigi Vandramini debuted in the UFC back in late 2018 against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos but has not fought since. He made a good showing of himself in that fight, where he seemed to give dos Santos trouble, and managed to take his back and threaten with a choke. He got a little ahead of himself and ended up walking on to a flying knee which spelled the beginning of the end. He was undefeated with a record of 8-0 before taking that loss, and we often think it's good for young fighters suffering their first devastating loss to take some time away to recover and develop their skill sets, which is exactly what Luigi has done here. Vendramini is only 24 years old and will be returning to face Jessin Ayari who also has not fought in almost two years. Ayari has a little more high-level experience though, with a 1-2 record in the UFC. His two losses came at the hands of Darren Till, and Stevie Ray - nothing to be ashamed of. The issue with Ayari is, he is approaching the prime of his career and the time off did not make much sense, unlike Vandramini. He has looked disinterested at times, and really takes a while to get going (if at all). It almost seems like he has the octagon jitters to start fights and comes out overly hesitant and has block which does not allow him to let loose unless he's dragged into deep waters. Vandramini on the other hand comes forward and we expect him to aggressively hunt down a cautious Ayari. While that approach got him in trouble against dos Santos, Ayari does not really pose the same knockout threat or power - and the overall volume, pace and styles matching up here should favor the younger fighter in Vendramini. Due to the lay-off there are some unknowns on both sides, and for that reason we are recommending a wager a little lighter than we usually would in this spot, where we think we could be getting tremendous value.
LOST - Take Jinh Yu Frey over Loma Lookboonmee (8:30p.m., Saturday, October 3rd)
In the first women's bout of the evening, we have a matchup between Loma Lookboonmee (4-2) and Jinh Yu Frey (9-5). When we saw these odds come out, we were highly surprised that Frey was the underdog. Both women are strikers, and do not show interest in much else. In terms of simple technical ability, we don't think there's much doubting Lookboonmee has the cleaner and crisper striking, but Frey wins in all other categories such as size, strength, power and overall toughness. This is a fight that could go either way in all honesty... we could see Loma winning the exchanges, and out-pointing Frey for 3 rounds, but if Frey decides to push the pace, and turn this into a gritty contest where toughness wins out, we like her chances. Don't get us wrong - size, strength, power and toughness are not always traits that will have success against the more technical opponent, but we are not talking about the technical ability of someone like Adesanya here. This is still low-level women's MMA, and we are highly unimpressed with Lookboonmee thus far. 50/50 fight that could play out either way, with the slightest of leans to Frey - therefore we see some solid value on the current market price.
WON - Take Carlos Condit over Court McGee (9:45p.m., Saturday, October 3rd)
In a throwback style fight we have two of the sport modern O.G's as 36 year old Carlos Condit (30-13) will face-off against 35 year old Court McGee (20-9). While both men are clearly a little withered and their professional careers as mixed martial artists are coming to an end, this is still a sneaky good fight. Both these guys are coming from the older, walk forward and fight approach which should make for a fun one as long as it lasts. Carlos Condit was once one of the most exciting fighters to watch. He brought a certain attitude and intensity to his fights which was like no other. He was all in, kill or be killed. In his 30 wins, he has finished all his opponents except for 2. He has 15 wins by knockout, and 13 by submission. The thing with Condit is, he is clearly on a massive decline. 10 of his 13 losses have come in his last 12 fights. Yep, that's right - he has only won 2 in his last 10, and has lost 5 straight dating back to 2015. Condit has been in absolute battlefield massacres, and we are seeing the signs of all that damage. He doesn't have anywhere near the same durability and is being taken down with relative ease. He used to have the ability to lock up some nasty submissions from his back, but as his gas tank is starting to fail him, and his will to win is fading, we aren't seeing the same kind of urgency to lock up those submissions anymore. His opponent, Court McGee has a unique 'take shots to deal shots' approach which could cause Condit issues. While McGee is also on a bad streak in his last 10 (4-6) he has still managed to win a few more than Condit. The interesting thing about McGee, is even though he is ageing, he is still able to take damage and keep fighting. In actual fact, he has only been finished one time in his career which was at the hands of Santiago Ponzinibbio back in 2016. However, that durability cannot last forever and we're seeing some shaky legs from time to time. McGee isn't a wrestler by nature, but is able to secure takedowns here and there in an attempt to steal rounds so Condit will have to keep moving, be aware and take that threat seriously if he wants to get his hand raised. With all that said - we feel Condit is still the better overall martial artist, with more ways to win. This will be a fun fight, and we wouldn't be surprised with any outcome, but we will side with Condit at plus money, and take a small stab at some value.
WON - Take Germaine de Randamie over Julianna Pena (11:30p.m., Saturday, October 3rd)
We have a good matchup here on the main-card as Dutch kickboxing sensation, Germaine de Randamie (9-4) will matchup against Julianna Pena (10-3). Germaine de Randamie has some serious high level striking ability. She has the perfect frame for distance, point-striking, and excellently timed technique coupled with raw power makes her a threat to end a fight at any time. To drive home just how high level Germaine is as a pure striker, she has a 46-0 kickboxing record with 30 knockouts. She is no joke in that department. Like many before her, she transitioned over to MMA for a new challenge, and the transition has been interesting. There have been many ups and downs, but she has held the belt in the UFC, and also contended for Amanda Nunes' belt in 2019. While she lost every single round of that fight, it was clear how good her ability on the feet is. Nunes, who basically walks down all her opponents and beats them up at will, resorted to a wrestling heavy approach as she was actually losing the standup exchanges with GDR. Julianna Pena on the other hand will need to take a similar approach to Nunes, but be much more purposeful and deliberate about it. If she stands for any length of time with GDR it will be a long night. Pena isn't a slouch on the feet but we don't want to spend much time discussing her abilities in that department as she will be overmatched every single time. The key here will be if Pena can get this to the mat. GDR doesn't pose much threat from her back, and also has issues scooching back to the cage, or using any other techniques to work back to her feet. Pena can wrestle, and she is strong, but if she can't get the takedowns in open space, she will have to be very careful working towards the clinch, as de Randamie has some seriously nasty elbows and knees. Pena averages a little over 2.5 takedowns per fight, and consistently looks for them... but the interesting thing here is, it seems as though GDR can be taken down with ease (due to her last fight) but in actual fact, her takedown defense has been entirely perfect in MMA competition besides facing Amanda Nunes. That is a little weird considering Nunes is not exactly known for her wrestling, but it's definitely an underappreciated aspect of her game. This should be a competitive fight, and one where GDR may need a finish if she is unable to stop the takedowns. However, while we think Pena will have some success at times, we cannot ignore the talent discrepancy here. We cannot pass up this price on the far more dangerous woman, and we expect the damage and volume to start stacking up for de Randamie. We either see her winning a close decision on the judges' scorecards or landing a power combo which could shut the lights out. We would be much heavier here if we were still getting the same pick'em' price this opened at, but we still feel there is some value at the current number.
LOST - Take Irene Aldana over Holly Holm (11:59p.m., Saturday, October 3rd)
For the main-event of the evening we have a matchup between Irene Aldana (12-5) and Holly Holm (13-5). Irene Aldana is a talented and tough woman that brings the true essence and pride of what it means to be a Mexican fighter. She brings that classic high-volume attack, while throwing caution to the wind. She carries that warrior spirit and mentality with her in all her fights and has been on an absolute tear in the UFC winning 5 of her last 6. Irene should really be nicknamed 'Irene the striking machine' as she lands approximately 6 significant strikes per minute and has reached 100 SS landed over 3 times in her pro career. She brings a high motor volume approach which is tough to deal with if you aren't ready to go to war. Holly Holm on the other hand is also a striker, with a more high-level, technical pedigree. Holm was a world champion professional boxer before coming to the UFC with a record of 33-2. Her transition to MMA has been an up and down roller coaster. She won her first 3 fights, which peaked with a dominant knockout win over seemingly unstoppable champion, Ronda Rousey. However, it is clear to us now that Ronda was not quite what we thought. Do not get us wrong - she paved the way for women's MMA in a manner that no-one else could, but she also was part of that early wave, and women's martial arts has come an exceptionally long way since. In all honesty, we do not think Rousey would crack the top 5, or even top 10 at this current level. However, this is all hindsight, monday-morning QB analysis. Holm's win over Rousey put a huge amount of pressure and unfair expectations on her, which did not pan out as expected. She lost her title in her first defense against Miesha Tate, and then proceeded to lose back-to-back fights against Valantina Shevchenko, and Germaine de Randamie. Since that point, Holm has been up and down with a 3-3 record and no ability to string together multiple wins. She's coming off a decent performance to Pennington where she won a unanimous decision but the jury is still out on how good Holm really is? In our opinion, we do not think she is anywhere near the talent level the market has consistently priced her at. I mean, to put that in perspective, Holm was a -400 favorite to Miesha Tate, -350 against Valentina Shevchenko, and even after two straight losses, found herself once again a -130 favorite against Germaine de Randamie. One thing we will say is that Holm has decent boxing, and if she lets her hands go with confidence, packs some game-changing power. Aldana with her Mexican hard-style approach will have to be careful, as Holm could plant a bomb right on the chin. Aldana is also hittable, but she has been able to take it thus far. We are sure her camp knows she will need to tighten up that defense a little when facing the technical boxing of Holm. However, we feel it is Aldana's time to make a push towards the title! She is in her prime and looking better and better with each fight, whilst Holm is now approaching 39 years of age. We like to try and read between the lines the UFC's plans to aid in our handicapping, and there is no doubt this is a set-up fight for Aldana to beat a big-named ex-champion. This will help her stock and allow a marketing push with Aldana as the next challenge to Amanda Nunes. Still - Aldana will need to work for it here, but we believe as the fight progresses, her pressure and aggressiveness will put Holly in spots she is not comfortable in, and force her to fight on the back-foot (something she hasn't had to do much of). This should be a fun one, and we see lots of Value in Irene at this price!
