Topic: FADE ME! - (46W - 33L) (+24.05 UNITS) FREE Daily Betting Tips - Startup Thread - page 43. (Read 12690 times)

The White Sox are in a groove and have been playing with a lot of confidence lately winning 16 of their last 20 contests. They clobbered the Pirates in a two game series earlier this season outscoring them 14-3 and I think that is what is going to happen in this matchup. Dylan Cease has allowed more than two earned runs just once in his last seven starts and I think he will be able to limit Pittsburgh's offense. Joe Musgrove will be making his second start since returning from the IL and he hasn't been very good when he has pitched this season. Musgrove has lost all four of the games he has started this year and I think the White Sox lineup is going to present some problems for him.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

The Bucks played their tails off to grab the game 4 win and stave off elimination. It took max efforts & results from Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez to gain the OT win. Middleton played more minutes in game four than he had all season. The most interesting part regarding the post-game presser was that more than one Miami Heat player mentioned that they themselves didn't exert max effort for a good chunk of the game. Miami broke out to a 31-22 lead through one quarter and scored 40 in the third but seemed to let off the gas. Miami is the deeper team at this point and I expect Jimmy Butler to lead by example when it comes to staying focused until the final buzzer. The Heat have covered four in a row as chalk and seven of their last eight overall.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

England capped off an underwhelming performance in their first match back in the Nations League with a 1-0 win over Iceland. They now make the short trip to Denmark to face a side coming off a 2-0 loss at home to Belgium. England has performed well in the Nations League with wins over Spain, Croatia, and a penalty shootout win over Switzerland. However, they looked to be lacking motivation against Iceland or it could be the lack of a vacation between seasons as England wrapped their restarted season just a few weeks ago. They now face a Denmark side that played in League B last season against Wales and Ireland, going 2-0-2 in four matches. They held it together for the most part against Belgium and now they face an England side that really is just not as dominate as they should be. Add in England sending two players home and there could be some additional moral issues in the England camp.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

Kiwoom is a much better team and has a much better pitcher on the round. Kim Jae-woong will not go long in this game but we will likely leave with a lead and the Heroes should be able to hold it. Ricardo Pinto has lost 8 straight decisions and fading him at this price is too good to pass up.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

I like the Clippers to bounce back tonight. They just couldn't hit shots in Game 2. It wasn't so much what the Nuggets were doing as much as it was that the Clippers just shot like trash. I don't see that happening again. The Clippers had averaged 122 points per game in their previous eight games before being held to just 101 last time out. They will rebound and I can see them hanging 130 tonight. When Denver plays poorly they play really, really poorly. And several of their losses have been really ugly. I think this will be one of them. I think the Clippers are going to smother Denver with its defense. And some better offensive execution should help them to another double-digit win.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

This is the crucial game number five in this seven game series that's tied up at two games each. These two teams have now faced each other eight times this season with the Boston Celtics winning five of them and overall averaging 5 points more per game in those head to head contests. The Celtics took a commanding two games to zero lead early on in this series but the Raptors have fought back and won the last two games. Overall though Boston has looked to me to be the better of these two teams in this match-up.

The Celtics had game three in hand before losing a heart-breaker at the buzzer. That win likely saved the Toronto Raptors season as no NBA team has ever come back from being down 0-3 in the playoffs. Boston came off that game three loss and still looked shell shocked in game four as the Raptors simply out-hustled the Celtics, scoring 24 2nd chance points in the contest and also showed much more intensity. Another big reason for their game four loss was the fact the Celtics shot just 7 of 35 for 20% from behind the three point line. Despite all of this, Boston still had a chance to win on Saturday night and was never really out of that game. The Celtics have arguably the best head coach in the NBA with Brad Stevens. The Celtics posted one of the best against the spread records in the NBA this year and over the past three seasons backing Boston blindly would have an NBA bettor ahead over 20 units overall. I expect Stevens to push all the right buttons in this one from adjustments to having his team mentally ready to go.

Play on Boston in this game.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

Take the New York Yankees on the Moneyline for today. The Yankees have held divisional opponents to hitting just .221 against them this season and this is a very strong situational play for me here tonight. Toronto has hit .250 as a team lifetime against Jordan Montgomery in limited at bats against him with an on-base percentage of just .265. This is also a huge bounce back start for Montgomery who was lit up in his last outing so you can expect him to be extremely focused tonight. Ryu has pitched solid this season however he has not made it past the 6th inning in any of his starts because of his pitch count. Toronto bullpen comes into this game anything but rested after a long series with the Boston Red Sox and they had to use 6 different pitchers yesterday and now they face a hungry Yankees lineup looking to avoid 4 straight losses. So play the New York Yankees on the Moneyline.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

Sunday Hockey and Basketball Bonanza 
*The leans below will not count to my stats here in this thread. Follow or fade, it's up to you!


NHL
Take VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS over Dallas Stars (8:20p.m., Sunday, September 6th)

Tonight is Game #1 of the NHL Western Conference Finals at the Rogers Place and I see the Golden Knights putting the pressure on the Stars right from the start. The Golden Knights have had outstanding success against Dallas winning 7 out 9 meetings and if the Knights hit the net early this game will be a high scoring meeting. The favorite in this series has won 5 out 6 and the Golden Knights are 16-5 following a win.

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NBA
Take HOUSTON ROCKETS +5.5 POINTS over Los Angeles Lakers (8:30 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 6th)

I'm going to keep chopping against the Lakers. This team has no chemistry and no cohesion. I don't think that they are mentally tough enough to keep up with the Rockets and I think that they are going to lose this series. Similar to our plays on Miami over the Bucks in that series we are going to continue to hammer the underdog in this series until the books adjust.

I'm going to ride them against the Rangers, who have 4 wins on the road all year. Add in the fact the Rangers offense is dead last in MLB, and their defense and runs allowed are 3rd from last in MLB, AND they start Jordan Lyles with a whopping 8.59 ERA, with little run support, and this makes the Mariners a no brainer. The Rangers are 0-6 their last game of a series their last 6 series. Seattle's bullpen is nothing to brag about as of late, but at days end Texas cannot fully exploit that like a lot of other teams could, especially when your team batting average is .209 the last 5 games.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

After a grind-it out Game 7 win against Utah on Tuesday, it had to be demoralizing for the Nuggets to get spanked like they did in Game 1 Thursday against the Clippers. It showed us that Denver doesn't have much of a chance in this series. And Denver probably knows that, too. Not sure what adjustments they can make here when the Clippers barely broke a sweat in Game 1 and the starters were able to hit the bench early. That is now three straight meetings the Clippers won by double digits. This is what LA has been working towards all season. They are completely healthy now and playing great team basketball. The bench is devastating when the starters need a break. They are much more fresh and rested than Denver. The Clippers have always had trouble in this round but this is by far the best squad in team history and we think they really want to make quick work of this series. With max effort, which we think they will provide, we think a double-digit win is a certainty.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

Every time I sit down to watch the Atlanta United play I think this is the game they play like they did last year and then I'm disappointed. Tonight is not one of those days because we are fading the United on the road against Orlando City. I know Atlanta has the edge in this series but that United teams has been nowhere to be seen and ever since they lost Josef Martinez they have looked lost. Orlando is unbeaten in their last 3 matches and sit nicely in the Eastern Conference and tonight at home I see them getting the 3-points and beating the United. If Atlanta United play like they did against Inter Miami this game will be lop-sided and I see Orlando City winning 2-0.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

The Philadelphia Flyers will look for an appearance in the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since the 2009/10 season when they take on the New York Islanders in Toronto on Saturday night in a winner take all Game 7. Carter Hart (9-4, 2.17 GAA, .929 save %) will get the call between the pipes for the Flyers and he's either going to be opposed by Thomas Greiss (1-1, 1.68 GAA, .949 save %) or Semyon Varlamov (9-4, 2.00 GAA, .921 save %), who are both on the table as of now for the Isles. It would seem that they would go with Varlamov but he's been lit up the last two games while Greiss has been nearly unbeatable in his limited playoff role. The Flyers have posted a perfect 4-0 record in their last four games off a game where they scored five goals or more and they are an impressive 11-5 in their last sixteen when facing a team that allowed five or more in their previous contest. They have also won ten of their last thirteen games versus a Metropolitan Division and they are a lights out 36-15 in their last 51 where they were playing with one day rest. The Islanders, on the other hand, have struggled a bit in the spot they are in here tonight as they have gone just 1-4 in their last five when playing with one day of rest and they are an awful 3-11 in their last fourteen conference semifinals games. Throw in the fact that the Isles are also just 8-18 off a game where they allowed five goals or more while the Flyers have won 20 of their last 27 overall and we're taking Philly at the small underdog price to get the win in Toronto on Saturday night.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Sakai  
*The leans below will not count to my stats here in this thread. Follow or fade, it's up to you!


CANCELLED - Take MARCOS ROGERIO DE LIMA over Alexander Romanov (6:35p.m., Saturday, September 5th)

In a matchup in the heavyweight division we have Marcos Rogerio De Lima (17-6) facing off against Alexander Romanov (11-0). This should be a fun fight as someone is probably getting put to sleep! Both fighters come out hot and look for the finish. Alexander Romanov will finally be making his UFC debut after his fight vs. Marcin Tybura was cancelled back in July. He has some hype behind him which is understandable considering he has an undefeated record, with all wins coming by way of finish (5 KO, 6 SUB). Romanov has shown he can handle himself wherever the fight takes place. The issue here, as always with some of these newcomers, is his resume. He has not fought high level competition and has only been out of the 1st round twice. Marcos Rogerio De Lima on the other hand is the more experienced martial artist who has fought the much better competition level. De Lima has shown weaknesses with his grappling and the ability to be finished by submissions but overall is extremely dangerous himself and has far more experience the deeper this one goes. De Lima opened the favorite at -165 which we believe was fair, but the influx of bets on Romanov has forced this line to over adjust. This fight could go either way, but we are getting a ton of value on the more proven, experienced fighter who we believe has the crisper striking.

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LOST - Take MONTANA DE LA ROSA over Viviane Araujo (7:30p.m., Saturday, September 5th)

Next up in the women's flyweight division we have a matchup between Montana De La Rosa (11-5) and Viviane Araujo (8-2). Interesting fight, but one we believe is mispriced. We get it - Araujo is a dangerous fighter that possesses good speed combined with awkward timing and wild, powerful technique. However, we have seen plenty of holes in her game. She does not possess the best grappling, both offensive and defensively, and has shown issues with her cardio. Montana De La Rosa on the other hand, has a style that can cause a lot of issues for Araujo. Eventually we believe she will be able to get this to the mat, at which point will cause Viviane all kinds of problems. Montana has no issues chaining takedowns and constantly pushing the pace to cause an ugly, grinding contest. We believe Araujo will look good early, landing shots and maintaining control, but as she starts to loop her strikes, and De La Rosa gets her timing down the momentum will start to shift. If Viviane is unable to put De La Rosa away (which is more on the unlikely side in women's MMA) then De La Rosa will find ways to empty Araujo's gas tank and win a close, but clear 2-1 decision. We would not be shocked if she were able to lock up a late submission either. Clear value on the dog.

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WIN - Take MICHEL PEREIRA over Zelim Imadaev (9:00p.m., Saturday, September 5th)

In the welterweight division Michel Pereira (23-11) will throw down against Zelim Imadaev (8-2). Imadaev came to the UFC with an undefeated 8-0 record, but hasnt shown the ability to perform or win at this level yet losing two in a row. This is a must win fight for him if he wants to remain with the organization. We will say that Imadaev is a well-rounded fighter but there is no doubt he is struggling to work things out at this level. Things will not get any easier for him as he faces an athletic freak in Michel Pereira who is an extremely dynamic and aggressive flashy striker. He will take risks to give the fans a show and that's something that's always fun to watch - however, this can cause him to deplete his energy levels and find himself in tough spots as the fight wears on. His fight against Tristan Connelly is a perfect example. He was clearly the better fighter, but was doing so many flashy, crazy techniques (including backflips) which caused him to gas out and eventually lose the fight as a -500 favorite. Fight IQ is not his strong point! That said - he has more ways to win this one and is the more dangerous martial artist and Imadaev is also hittable. If Pereira isn't smart and unable to get the finish early in this one, things could get a little hairy, but we have to take a shot on a very generous price.

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LOST - Take ALONZO MENIFIELD over Ovince Saint Preux (9:25p.m., Saturday, September 5th)

In the co-main event of the evening we have a light heavyweight matchup between Ovince Saint Preux (24-14) and Alonzo Menifield (9-1). This is a great fight that should be very entertaining. Alonzo Menifield has absolute game-changing power. He throws extremely hard and heavy and comes out guns blazing looking for the knockout. However, in his last fight against Devin Clark he showed clear holes in his cardio, grappling and overall cage IQ. Menifield will be coming off his first loss as a pro, and he will want to earn back the hype he previously had! He will have that chance when he faces UFC veteran, OSP. Ovince is an odd, unpredictable fighter, as you really cannot rely on the effort or performance you expect to see. He fights long, has dangerous power (when he decides to let his hands go) and has the ability to wrestle and finish you with his crafty submissions, especially the 'Von Flue' which has recreationally been renamed to the 'Von Preux' - and rightfully so considering he has 4 of the 6 Von Flue finishes ever recorded in the UFC! The issue with Saint Preux is in his moments where he stops moving and starts to stand flat footed directly in front of his opponent. His conditions and chin seem to be tailing off, and do not get it twisted - this is a complete set up fight from the UFC to allow Menifield to look impressive vs. a bigger name. We believe Menifield will land a big shot on OSP early, unload and put him away - however, if he is unable to finish, he may fall off a cliff as we saw in his last fight. If this happens, we expect to see him flat on his back with little movement, eventually scrambling for lazy exits where OSP will be waiting for a submission finish. This could be a dumpster fire that lasts all 3 rounds as both men tire, and if could end early in devastating fashion. We believe the latter is the far more likely option, and we will take the younger, fresher, more dangerous fighter.

This is the game in the WNBA. This is the cream of the crop and this line says a lot about how good Seattle is. The fact they are laying this number shows that they are much better than the Sparks. Seattle has the best player on the floor and their depth will be too much for Los Angeles to handle in the end. The Storm have won two in a row after dropping two in a row and their double-digit victory over a tough Chicago squad a few nights ago shows just how good they are. This will be a double-digit victory again for Seattle showing people that they are the team to beat in the "Wubble." Now I am not saying that LA aren't a good team but they aren't on the level of the Storm. This has the makings of a playoff game and it will no doubt have a playoff feel but Seattle has the horses to keep Los Angeles at bay. Lay the number and enjoy a 92-80 Storm victory.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

There's a reason that this number is coming down. And I think that Houston has a chance to win this game outright. I know they are just one day removed from an emotional Game 7 win over OKC. However, I think they are going to be fine and the Lakers may be a little rusty after sitting out since last Saturday's win. The Lakers lost their first game against Portland in pretty much the exact same situation. I think that this is a similar situation. These two teams both play completely opposite styles; the Rockets are a chuck-and-duck 3-point bombing squad and the Lakers win with size and defense. I think Houston will strike first and I do think that the Lakers are going to have trouble making adjustments against a frustrating opponent. The Lakers have weak guards and they don't have great chemistry. I can see them mentally folding the first time Houston hits them with one of their six-minute 3-point barrages. I'm going with the dog in this one.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

Tonight at Progressive Field the Cleveland Indians welcome the Brew Crew for a weekend series and tonight I see the Tribe taking Game #1. Tonight the Tribe will have Carlos Carrasco on the mound and I see him getting early run support. The Brewers have split their last 4 games and have played well on the road but tonight the Tribe bats will be too much for the Brewers pitching staff. Cleveland is 5-1 in their last 6 Interleague games and the Indians are also 6-2 in their last 8 games.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

The saying "don't wake a sleeping giant" is what comes to mind as the Rays and Marlins meet up for a three game series in less than a week. Its not the Marlins fault, but I think they are going to suffer the consequences from how the Yankees fired up the Rays in their most recent series with throwing at some of the Tampa Bay hitters. Tampa Bay beat the Yankees last night to take eight of ten games in the season series and I like them to continue that success against the Marlins who they just swept in a three game series. Josh Fleming has looked great winning his first two starts in his young career and one of those was 5.1 scoreless innings against Miami. Pablo Lopez will be on the mound for the Marlins and he has been solid this year going 3-2 with a 2.10 ERA. However, he couldn't figure out the Rays when he took a 4-0 loss and I think he is going to have some issues tonight as well. I like Tampa Bay in this one.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

Normally I like to wait a game or two to see how series shake out before committing one way or another. But I'm going to try to strike early in this one because there's a chance that we are going to lose line value quickly. I think the Clippers are pretty obviously going to win the West. They are the best team and I don't think it's really close. And I think that they are going to flex their muscle a bit here against a tired Denver team. I think the Nuggets aren't very good. Their Game 7 effort against Utah was pathetic. And the fact that they had to rally from a 3-1 deficit against Utah - a team that I thought was one of the worst I watched in the bubble - tells me what I need to know. Denver still isn't 100 percent and they are not the same team when they aren't playing with their massive home court advantage (altitude; crazy fans). That's part of the reason they have been relatively unimpressive in the bubble.

I think this game is going to be a bloodbath. I think the Clippers are going to smother Denver's one-dimensional offense. I don't think the Nuggets are going to be able to account for the Clips' multiple weapons. I think Los Angeles' second unit is going to hammer Denver's. And I think that late in this game, when it is a 15- or 20-point deficit, the Nuggets are going to rest Murray and Jokic for later in the series.

The Clippers should wear the Nuggets down. I'll call this one 118-104 in a game that isn't as close as the final score suggests.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

These two teams met less than a week ago with the White Sox taking two of three and I think they are going to start this series off with a win. Dylan Cease has squared off against Kansas City twice this season and has been pretty good going 1-0 with a 2.61 ERA holding them to a .171 batting average. Danny Duffy has the ball for the Royals and he has been up and down this season. He hasn't been very good when pitching at home so far this season as he is ERA is 5.00 and he allowed 2 home runs in his only start against the White Sox this season. It doesn't help Kansas City that Jorge Solar most likely won't play today because he hurt his oblique and was removed from last night's game. I like the White Sox in this one.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

As per our selection on the under in this game between Las Vegas and Connecticut, you have to feel like Vegas is going to be pissed off about losing their last game to PHX and giving up 92 points in the process. The Aces have played exceptionally good basketball over their last 10 games and most of that has been predicated on great defense which eluded them on Tuesday. They should be able to clamp down defensively against a Sun's team that has scored more than 80 points in just 2 of their last nine contests. We expect the Sun to struggle here today and the Aces to grab a low scoring win, something that should please their coach. The Under is 6-2-1 in the Aces last 9 vs the East and 9-3 in the Sun's last 12 vs the West.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter