Topic: FADE ME! - (46W - 33L) (+24.05 UNITS) FREE Daily Betting Tips - Startup Thread - page 59. (Read 12690 times)

Penrith has dominated this season winning 7 of the last 8 contests. Their average margin of victory in those games was 23 points, well above today's posted number. The Panthers are yet to miss a single set shot for goal (conversions and penalties) from ten attempts in 2020. The Knights are 2-0 but they have not started 3-0 since 2015.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

We have a matchup in the featherweight division between Chris Gutierrez (14-3) and Vince Morales (9-4). Chris Gutierrez is a fundamentally sound and efficient fighter with a 'quality over quantity' approach. This is the opposite to Vince Morales style who looks to land hard kicks and punches at a high rate. Morales isn't too solid defensively and leaves himself open to counter shots when facing any polished well-rounded fighter, which is a cause for concern considering how reliant he is on winning the striking exchanges. Morales has looked good vs. opponents that he should beat, but has struggled with everyone else. His record was also a bit padded before coming to the UFC. Gutierrez should be able to land the bigger, harder shots and score on the judges' scorecards despite the speed disadvantage. We honestly do not believe that Morales is a UFC caliber fighter, and this should be a comfortable fight that Gutierrez should win by landing the more meaningful strikes. Gutierrez opened -150 and the action has since come in on Morales, pulling this line down to a pickem'. We disagree with the movement and make Gutierrez at least a -200 favorite. This will be a max play for us and expect a no sweat win.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

I'm going to keep rolling with Eric Jokisch. The lefty has been dominating to this point in the season, posting a 1.17 ERA. Right now He looks like the best pitcher in the league and he is coming in off an extra day of rest so I think he will be sharp again. KT is one of the few teams that have not faced the lefty, and I think he's going to remain sharp until teams get to see him that second or third time. After a tough series against the Dinos, I think Kiwoom is going to be ready to go in this series opener.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Guadalupe as they should easily beat Zeledon. Look, Guadalupe is just three points back of the coveted fourth spot and a spot in the playoff semi-finals. It's games like this, at home against the bottom of the table side like Zeledon that they need to win in order to make up ground. Blowing them out would also help the goal differential which would come into play in case of a tie-breaker at the end of the season. Guadalupe has not lost in their last five games whereas Zeledon has not one a single game, managing only a draw in the same time frame. At home especially, is where Guadalupe makes their hay, having lost just once in 10 games, and where they have scored 16 goals in that time. Zeledon has lost three straight away from home, where they've failed to score a single goal. Guadalupe is among the stingiest defensive teams, having conceded just three times on their home soil in eight games. Give me the better team with more to play for in this matchup.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

So, until I see Union Berlin stop someone I'm not entirely sure that they can. Their defense has been a train wreck. They allowed two goals against Bayern Munich in their first game back. But they should've easily allowed five goals, as Munich missed a bunch of golden opportunities. Then Union Berlin gave up four goals - all in the second half - against Hertha Berlin in their rivalry game over the weekend (which we hit for a 7-Unit winner). I'm going to keep going back to it, not only because Berlin's defense is a disheveled, unorganized mess, but because this team is absolutely due for an offensive breakout. They have missed all kinds of chances in their last two matches, getting shutout in each match. They are 100% going to break through and they will score at least one They'goal - and I think 2 - in this outing. Mainz hasn't been much better defensively. They got torched for five goals on Sunday against RB Leipzig and it could've been worse than that. They've seen nine goals in their two games since the return; I think they can get to three total in this game as well. They've had 3.2 goals per game in their last 10 and I see a 2-1 game for one side or the other in this one.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

It's pretty incredible what the Dinos have been doing this year, starting the season 15-3. What is even more impressive is that they are winning this game without really hitting the ball all that well. I think at some point things are going to click for this lineup and it is kind of bizarre that they are one ofhte few teams in this league that is consistently going 'under' in their games. Lee Jae-hak has been reliable in recent seasons but has a 4.95 ERA this year. The Heroes are going with Han Hyun-hee, who has given up 22 hits in just 16 innings of work this year. He's been getting shelled and his ERA is approaching 6.00. I think one of these starters is going to get lit up and that should help this one get 'over'.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Why yes, I will take Dan Straily in a bounce back situation thank you. Straily is an MLB-caliber starter, which makes him one of the best arms in this league by far. He got smoked in his last start, allowing five runs on six hits in just five innings. He has given up 13 hits in his last two starts, neither of which went particularly well. He's going to make adjustments. He has an extra day of rest so he will be fresh and I'll be surprised if he doesn't come out strong with at least six good innings. Lotte is coming off a solid series win over Kiwoom and they have been really solid at home this year. Samsung is going with Choi Chae-heung, and he's been pitching over his head a bit. He had a 4.81 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP last year - his first as a starter - and right now he is 3-0 with a 2.65 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. I see regression, both positive and negative, creeping in for both of these starters and it should lead to a win for a motivated home team.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

This is a pretty standard match play golf matchup as the team with the better score on each hole wins the hole. Team with the most holes won after 18 wins the match. The front nine will be a four-ball format where everyone plays their own shots. The back nine will be an alternating shot best ball where all four guys tee off and they play their second shots from the best possible ball.

It's hard to think that Woods has already "lost" a charity match play golf game against Mickelson but that's what happened already back in 2018. This time, Woods will be on his home course and he'll have Manning on his team who in his own right's is a pretty decent golfer. Woods knows this course like the back of his hand and will be able to navigate the terrain better than his opponents. Besides, how much golf has Tom Brady really played over the last little while with his whole free-agency nonsense going on and the big move to the Buccaneers. This is a bit of a juicy line but the winning side will be Woods and Manning once it's all said and done.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

I really like Leipzig in this one. Mainz 05 is not a helpless team. They have taken two draws and a win in their last three matches. And they show up at weird times. But Leipzig has been really, really good over the last several months and I think that they are going to be a little salty after taking a bad draw against Freiburg last week. They should be a lot more focused and motivated here and they will find a way to get this one.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Hate to keep fading the Wyverns but they just lose pretty much every game that they play. Kia will enter having won 5 straight games and they now sit at three games over the .500 mark. SK just loses games in a variety of ways, but most of the games they just do not score many runs and need a near perfect pitching performance to win any game. Do not expect that to happen and we will lay the wood with the Tigers.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Dortmund's Erling Braut Haaland may be the star of this game but they're a side with massive depth at both ends of the pitch. In fact, Dortmund owns arguably the deepest roster in the league outside of Bayern Munich. Wolfsburg will attempt to slow down Haaland but they'll have plenty more to worry about. Dortmund have produced six straight clean sheets against Wolfsburg, have beaten them four straight times on the road, and own 8 wins, no losses, and 1 draw in the last nine meetings, overall. Dortmund is hot and cannot let off the gas if they wish to catch Bayern Munich. Every game is a virtual must-win despite being one of the top teams in the league. I expect the series domination to continue and I'm backing Borussia Dortmund on Saturday.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Take Kiwoom Heroes here in a nice spot against Lotte. Jake Brigham gave up 3 walks in his last game and frankly did not pitch well and his team did win his first two starts but coming off such a poor start we like him to bounce-back here. Lotte is not a bad team at all, but note that Lote Kyung pitching today who is 36 years old, who comes off a great effort against Hanwah and he is likely in for a small let down here. Hence, look for a game here in which Kiwoom likely takes it as they have the edge in pitching and bullpen for that matter and Lotte has only put up 0, 1, 2 and 4 runs of late as well. Let's take the team with the edge in hitting, pitching and bullpen here as we roll with Kiwoom.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

It was only a matter of time before these two teams finally started putting some runs on the board. Hanwha is right there with SK for the worst offenses in the league. But they busted out with 11 runs in the opener of this series. They hit the ball hard yesterday and put 10 guys on base, but could only come up with one run to show for it. KT put 21 guys on base yesterday and they only managed eight runs, so I think that both teams will be better with RISP today. KT has been crushing the ball. They are averaging 11 runs on their own in their last five games and I think they will keep it going. Hanwha is going with Kim Ee-whan, who has been pitching over his head a bit. He has just five strikeouts to five walks and he has only given up two runs despite allowing 14 base runners. That isn't going to last for the 19-year-old. So Hyeong-jun is a rookie starter off back-to-back solid outings. But now that the pros have some tape on the 18-year-old I think they are going to knock him around. I see them scoring.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

We roll with Doosan here as indeed the NC Dinos have won 7 in a row and we get that, but we think the Doosan Bears end that today. You have a Doosan team that is coming off a 4-5 loss where they played well against the Dinos but could not win but that likely changes tody. You have NC who is the top team but it's not like Doosan is a pushover here by any means as they are 4th in the current standings and are above .500. Koo Chang Mo is a good pitcher here and he has pitched well this year, but he was rocked by Doosan last year and I think that carries over hree as Doosan do know him and have experience against him and that familiarity should translate into some runs here. You have a pitcher here in Chris Flexen for Doosan who used to pitch for the Mets and Padres and now he gets a chance with Doosan and he has made the most of it. He even recorded a win at Citi Field against the Texas Rangers back in 2017 giving up 3 runs in 5.1 innings. He's certainly pitched against the best of the best and he's held his own. He will look to really show his salt here against the top team in the league as I'm sure with limited Baseball, major league teams will be looking at the 25 year old and it's his chance to really show that he has a lot to offer. He has beat two good teams in LG and Lotte so far, both top half teams, and yielded just 1 walk each time and just 3 and then 2 earned runs. Yes, Koo Chang Mo has not given up a run this year but he has faced KT and Samsung and he gets to face a team here in Doosan who is going to be more than ready to give him his first earned runs of the year as guys get up for games like this - if you are an athlete, you will understand when you face an undefeated team or undefeated pitcher or a team that is on a winning streak. I am also not knocking the NC Dinos here and their 11-1 record, but they have played SK, KT and not the best teams in the leaguea nd Doosan had to face a stud in Mike Wright yesterday, they will see a lot more pitches to hit here against Koo Chang Mo.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

I think the wrong team is favored here. I don't think that LG is that good. I know Samsung is only 4-8, but they are going to be a little ornery after getting swept by a desperate KT team. This was right around .500 prior to that and I think they will snap their skid here after two straight road series. They are starting Lim Chan-gyu, and he is due for a letdown after a great start against pathetic SK. Lim has had ERAS of 4.97, 5.77 and 4.63 the last three years as a starter. On the other side is David Buchanan, who should be getting more comfortable. He dominated Kiwoom in his last start, striking out eight in seven innings, and I think that he can keep that going.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

We are taking Munich -1.5 goals in this match AND taking them -2.0. And I absolutely think  that they will do that. Playing in front of empty stadiums takes a big emotional factor out of play. It really comes down to technique and overall ability. Munich has the clear upper hand in both facets in this match. They are one of the top teams in the world and I think that they will put on a clinic here. Union Berlin is a mediocre 2. Bundesliga team. That is the German second division. They are only in the top league this year because they finished third in the second tier last year and won a relegation playoff. This team is swimming way out of its depth here against one of the top teams in the world. I don't see a scenario where this match isn't a blowout.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Dan Ige (13-2) is set to face Edson Barboza (20-8) in the featherweight division. Ige has been impressing us for years now after his debut loss in a close decision vs. Julio Arce where he has since been able to reel off 5-straight wins. Ige has the ability to be competitive no matter where the fight takes place, but he manages to do his real work on the mat. Edson Barboza has the best kicking game in the business and is dropping down to 145 pounds after losing 4 of his last 5 at lightweight. Barboza was looking unstoppable before his loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov.. In all honesty, we feel the beating Khabib put on him that night took years off his MMA career and he hasn't been the same fighter since. There is no doubt Barboza will be the bigger, stronger man in this bout but Ige is being overlooked. We don't know how the weight cut will affect his ability to perform or keep pace should this fight see the later rounds. Dan Ige doesn't have the same following or name that Barboza has and this is where huge value can be found. This is a big spot for Ige where a win over Edson Barboza puts him in a real contender position and we think he is able to do just that. The wrong man is favored.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

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UFC FIGHT NIGHT 176  
*These tips will not count to my stats here in this thread.

LOSS - Take Eryk Anders over Krzysztof Jotko (9:30p.m., Saturday, May 16th)

Eryk Anders (13-4) will throw down vs Krzysztof Jotko in a middleweight clash in which a new contender will emerge. Anders is an incredible athlete that played at the university of Alabama (Roll Tide!) however, his stint in the UFC has been inconsistent to say the least. He will take the aggressive, walk you down approach, in some fights and pick up wins vs. opponents such as Rafael Natal and Gerald Meerschaert, but will then be hesitant and find ways to lose vs opponents such as Elias Theodorou. In all honesty, that was a pathetic performance, and one that left a bad taste in our mouth. Anders has good strength and power, but his technique and overall want and grit is questionable. Jotko on the other hand is a technical, well-rounded martial artist with a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. If the best version of Krzysztof Jotko shows up here, we think he should have what it takes to handle Anders, but he has also been extremely inconsistent and isn't someone that can be trusted (especially as chalk). This could be an ugly fight, but one where the aggressor will probably win. If Anders pushes, and brings the fight to Krzysztof, then he should find a way to win a close decision using his power and strength advantages. It wouldn't shock us if he was able to win by KO either.

LOSS - Take Marlon Vera over Song Yadong  (9:00 p.m., Saturday, May 16)

Marlon Vera (15-5) will take on Song Yadong (15-4) in the UFC featherweight division in a bout that will kick off the main card. Marlon Vera is currently on a 5-fight win streak and is looking better and better each time we see him. He is well rounded and manages distance and space efficiently. Yadong on the other hand is a raw talent, that has some serious power for the division. This fight could play out in so many ways. We could see Yadong landing that devastating shot and putting Vera away. We could see Vera winning a point battle and eventually pulling guard to work off his back at some point where he can utilize his slick transitions or we could see Yadong landing a takedown where he is able to put a beating on Vera over the course of 3 rounds with his solid suffocating top game. The main issue here is the questionable fight IQ of Marlon Vera... He can be winning rounds before making some strange choices which makes his fights more competitive than they need to be. However, making him a +160 underdog in this fight seems a little far-fetched. This could go either way, but it's a coin-flip. We will take this price on a 50/50 proposition any day of the week.

WIN!!! - Take Alistair Overeem over Walt Harris (11:00 p.m., Saturday, May 16)

The main event of the evening will see Alistair Overeem (45-18) take on Walt Harris (13-7) in the UFC heavyweight division. Before assessing this fight, we should bring attention to Walt Harris who has had an extremely difficult end to 2019. His step-daughter, Aniah Blanchard was abducted in October from a Chevron station in Alabama and went missing. Harris took to social media desperately looking for help to find her before her remains were tragically discovered in late November in a wooded area of Macon County. We want to pay our respects by bringing attention to this story and wishing nothing but the best for Walt Harris and his family in this difficult time. He will be bringing all kinds of emotion, anger and a heavy heart with him as he makes his walk to the Octagon Saturday night. It's impossible to predict how this will distract, or fuel him - so we will handicap this fight in a neutral manner. Harris has won his last 4 in the UFC and is looking better each time we see him. He has some serious power which can be seen with all his wins coming by KO. The issue is his resume. Beating Daniel Spitz, Sergey Spivak and old timers Aleksei Oleinik and Andrei Arlovski is nothing to write home about. Alistair Overeem on the other hand is a legend in the sport. His first fight in the UFC was back in 2011 and has an incredible resume as he has beaten fighters such as Fabricio Werdum, Mark Hunt, Junior Dos Santos, and Brock Lesnar. His recent losses came at the hands of Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Curtis Blaydes, Francis Ngannou and Stipe Miocic! Overeem is by far the better technical striker. His experience will be a huge factor in our opinion and this step up in competition for Harris should not be overlooked. Overeem always is at risk with his ever deteriorating chin, but his defense has been getting better. He managed to survive all 5 rounds in a one-sided winning performance vs. elite striker Rozenstruik before being knocked out with 4 seconds to go! That's both comforting and scary at the same time. He's tightening things up and improving his defense as he is fully aware of his porcelain beak, but he is always ripe to be knocked out. However - we wouldn't be surprised if Overeem was able to land a few takedowns here and beat up on Harris on the mat and perhaps even secure a submission. His ground game is often overlooked and he has the ability to take it there. In our opinion, Harris has one path to victory, whilst Overeem has many. We don't believe Harris should be favored and for that reason will take the ugly dog in Overeem. Hold your nose and let's hope he is able to avoid the KO blows that will be swung his way.

BATE has been on fire. They are the dominant organization in this league and they have been proving it over the last month. They have won five of six matches (one draw) and all five wins have come by at least two goals. On the other side is second-place Slutsk. This team has been playing way over its head and we hit going against them last week with Energetik in a game that was not as close as the 2-1 final score suggests. Slutsk has had a charmed opening two months of the season, going 4-1-1 in their last five matches with four one-goal wins. They have earned those wins against a bunch of crappy teams and several of them have featured bizarre, fluke things (like missed penalty kicks, opponents playing man-down for long stretches, late goals). I think they are swimming in the deep end here and I don't think that they are going to be the team to slow down BATE.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

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To celebrate the return of BUNDESLIGA, here are my tips for some games of it. Enjoy!  
*These tips will not count to my stats here in this thread.

WIN!!! - Take Borussia Dortmund over Schalke 04 (9:30 a.m., Saturday, May 16)

This is a big-time rivalry match in the Bundesliga and a very consequential game, particularly for second place Dortmund. I think they are going to blow Schalke's doors off here and I think the difference between the teams is stark. Schalke has not won a match since January 17th! That includes a draw against SC Paderborn, by far the worst team in the league. Schalke has gotten demolished by the other top tier teams in the league, losing 5-0 at home to Munich and 5-0 on the road to Leipzig. I don't think it will be quite that bad here. But I do think that Dortmund is clearly the better side here. Schalke is in the Top 5 despite having a negative goal differential, while Dortmund is +35 on the campaign. I'll take the home side.

LOSS - Take Hoffenheim over Hertha Berlin (9:30 a.m., Saturday, May 16)

I like the odds on this side. 1899 Hoffenheim has consistently been better than Hertha. Prior to last season Hoffenheim had finished in the Top 4 in back-to-back seasons. And even last year they finished in ninth place but posted the league's fourth-best goal differential. They have either been really, really good this year or really, really bad. I think the good Hoffenheim is going to show up. Hertha has been one of the worst teams in the league this year. I'll take the plus-money on the better side.

WIN!!! - Take Wolfsburg over Augsburg (9:30 a.m., Saturday, May 16)

Wolfsburg has been playing a bit better than their record suggests. This team managed to finish in sixth place last year, finishing just three points out of Champions League qualification. Augsburg, by the way, finished last year just four points out of a relegation playoff. Wolfsburg is in seventh place right now and has a positive goal differential. Augsburg, on the other hand, is once again near the bottom of the table and trying to fend off relegation. They have lost three straight matches and four of five heading into the break. Wolfsburg, on the other hand, is coming off a pair of draws following a stretch of three of four winning matches. I think Wolfsburg will be able to take advantage of Augsburg's leaky defense.

This also sounds nuts, but I would actually play the Draw on all five of the 9:30 a.m. EST matches in the Bundesliga on Saturday morning. If you played them all for 2.0 Units apiece then you only need two of the five to Draw to show a profit. If one of those two games are the Schalke or Leipzig matches then you are going to clean up. Just an idea.

The Twins are coming off a sweep of SK, but I think that they are going to come back down to earth. Kiwoom has been solid since the start of the season and I think they have the edge on the mound and at the plate.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Drew Dober (22-9) will face-off vs. Alexander Hernandez (11-2) in the lightweight division. When assessing this matchup, most will assume Hernandez to be the favorite. He's an exciting fighter that oozes confidences and possess highlight reel KO capability coupled with decent wrestling. Drew Dober has a stigma attached to him which comes from his 1-3 start in the UFC, but since then has turned things around with a 7-2 run and has looked extremely impressive. When it comes to these two matching up, we believe that Dober has the better stand up capabilities and has the experience to take care of the up and coming Alexander Hernandez. For some reason, Hernandez has consistently been over-valued since his debut in the UFC where he knocked out Beniel Dariush in the 1st round. The improvement with Dober is nothing to be shocked about - he has the right mindset, is always wanting to improve, and has been training with the new lightweight interim champion, Justin Gaethje. The -110 line currently on offer implies a 52.4% win probability, which is too low in our opinion... we make him closer to -200 (66.7%) and expect a solid performance where he finds ways to outclass Hernandez. Dober will come forward while Hernandez tries to move around on the outside, with little success. Wherever this fight takes place will be fine by us, but we are expecting a KO win for Drew Dober here.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.